2020 Week 4 · Mon, Oct 5, 2020 · Arrowhead Stadium

New England Patriots

Kansas City ChiefsWinner

KC -7 ✓U 52.5 ✓Chiefs closed -7 and covered, winning by 16.

Kansas City Chiefs 26–10. Biggest swing: Q3 4:01, NE +13% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q3 · 4:01NE — KC NE ball · 3rd & 8KC 64%

(4:01) (Shotgun) 2-B.Hoyer sacked at KC 16 for -6 yards (94-T.Charlton). FUMBLES (94-T.Charlton) [94-T.Charlton], RECOVERED by KC-56-B.Niemann at KC 15.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q3 · 4:01NE +13% win prob(4:01) (Shotgun) 2-B.Hoyer sacked at KC 16 for -6 yards (94-T.Charlton). FUMBLES (94-T.Charlton) [94-T.Charlton], RECOVERED by KC-56-B.Niemann at KC 15.
Q4 · 13:50KC +9% win prob(13:50) (Shotgun) 4-J.Stidham pass short left to 15-N.Harry for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 · 5:59KC +8% win prob(5:59) (Shotgun) 2-B.Hoyer pass deep left to 10-D.Byrd to KC 12 for 25 yards (32-T.Mathieu).
Q1 · 0:13NE +8% win prob(:13) 2-B.Hoyer pass deep right intended for 85-R.Izzo INTERCEPTED by 22-J.Thornhill at NE 43. 22-J.Thornhill ran ob at NE 23 for 20 yards (28-J.White).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Patriots	Chiefs
Offensive plays	74	52
Total yards	357 (edge)	329
Yards per play	4.8	6.3 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.21	0.05 (edge)
Success rate	41%	44% (edge)
Dropback rate	55%	67%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.45	0.14 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.08 (edge)	-0.12
Third downs	6/15	4/10
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6	7 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	20 (edge)	17
Sacks taken	2	1 (edge)
Turnovers	4	1 (edge)

Patriots outgained Chiefs 357–329 but lost the turnover battle 4–1. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · KC

Patrick MahomesQB

19/29, 236 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

6.6 expected points added · -1.2% completion over expected

Passing · NE

Brian HoyerQB

15/24, 130 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-9.2 expected points added · -1.3% completion over expected

Rushing · NE

Damien HarrisRB

17 att, 100 yds, 0 TD

1.0 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · KC

Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB

16 att, 64 yds, 0 TD

-2.6 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · NE

Damiere ByrdWR

5/10 for 80 yds, 0 TD

29% of team targets · -3.7 expected points added

Receiving · KC

Travis KelceTE

3/7 for 70 yds, 0 TD

24% of team targets · 0.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	KC	KC 25	12	70	4:52	Turnover on downs
2	NE	NE 25	5	9	1:26	Punt
3	KC	KC 15	4	5	1:35	Punt
4	NE	NE 27	6	21	2:29	Punt
5	KC	KC 4	8	82	4:25	Turnover on downs
6	NE	NE 25	2	0	0:10	Interception
7	KC	NE 23	2	8	0:12	Fumble
8	NE	NE 15	13	60	5:20	Turnover on downs
9	KC	KC 25	8	10	3:55	Punt
10	NE	NE 35	13	44	5:36	End of half
11	NE	NE 25	5	6	0:58	Punt
12	KC	KC 11	6	20	2:53	Punt
13	NE	NE 16	13	74	7:17	Fumble
14	KC	KC 15	8	85	3:10	Touchdown
15	NE	NE 25	8	59	1:57	Touchdown
16	KC	KC 25	11	42	4:48	Touchdown
17	NE	NE 25	2	0	0:09	Defensive touchdown
18	NE	NE 25	12	38	5:30	Interception
19	KC	KC 33	4	7	1:06	Punt
20	NE	NE 20	6	46	0:42	Turnover on downs
21	KC	KC 34	3	0	1:30	End of game

0 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Chiefs gained 85 scrimmage yards over 8 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

New England Patriots

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Brian Hoyer	15/24	130	0	1	2	-9.2
Jarrett Stidham	5/13	60	1	2	0	-9.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Damien Harris	17	100	5.9	1.0
Rex Burkhead	11	45	4.1	-1.3
James White	3	21	7.0	0.9
Brian Hoyer	1	8	8.0	1.7
Isaiah Zuber	1	8	8.0	0.6
Jarrett Stidham	2	3	1.5	0.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Damiere Byrd	5	10	80	0	29%	-3.7
James White	7	8	38	0	23%	-0.6
Julian Edelman	3	6	35	0	17%	-3.6
N'Keal Harry	3	6	21	1	17%	2.3
Gunner Olszewski	1	1	11	0	3%	1.9
Rex Burkhead	1	1	5	0	3%	-0.1
Ryan Izzo	0	3	0	0	9%	-6.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Ja'Whaun Bentley	2	3	0.0	1
Jason McCourty	3	2	0.0	0
Jonathan Jones	4	1	0.0	0
Deatrich Wise	3	1	0.0	0
Chase Winovich	2	2	1.0	0
Kyle Dugger	3	1	0.0	0
Stephon Gilmore	3	0	0.0	0
John Simon	3	0	0.0	0
J.C. Jackson	2	0	0.0	1
Devin McCourty	1	1	0.0	0

Kansas City Chiefs

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Patrick Mahomes	19/29	236	2	0	1	6.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	16	64	4.0	-2.6
Patrick Mahomes	8	28	3.5	3.0
Darrel Williams	1	2	2.0	0.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Travis Kelce	3	7	70	0	24%	0.2
Tyreek Hill	4	6	64	1	21%	5.3
Sammy Watkins	4	7	43	0	24%	-4.4
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	3	3	27	0	10%	1.4
Mecole Hardman	4	4	27	1	14%	2.6
Deon Yelder	1	1	5	0	3%	-0.0
Darrel Williams	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Mike Pennel	5	5	0.0	0	0
Juan Thornhill	6	0	0.0	1	1
Anthony Hitchens	3	3	0.0	0	0
Daniel Sorensen	4	1	0.0	0	0
Charvarius Ward	3	1	0.0	0	0
Derrick Nnadi	3	1	0.0	0	0
Tyrann Mathieu	4	0	0.0	1	1
Frank Clark	4	0	1.0	0	0
Damien Wilson	3	1	0.0	0	0
Taco Charlton	2	1	1.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: KC -7
Closing total: 52.5
NE moneyline: +257
KC moneyline: -299

Chiefs closed -7 and covered, winning by 16.

Total closed 52.5; the game landed 36 — under by 16.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Arrowhead Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · astroturf
Kickoff weather: 73°F, wind 14 mph
Referee: Tony Corrente
Rest: NE 8 days · KC 7 days
Coaches: Bill Belichick vs Andy Reid