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New England Patriots 10 at Kansas City Chiefs 26. Final.
Chiefs -7 ✓U 52.5 ✓
The verdict · 2020 Week 4
Kansas City Chiefs 26, Patriots 10 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q3 4:01, 3rd and 8, on Brian Hoyer — 12.9 win-probability points to the Chiefs on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 4:01 · 3rd and 8
Brian Hoyer
Chiefs
(4:01) (Shotgun) 2-B.Hoyer sacked at KC 16 for -6 yards (94-T.Charlton). FUMBLES (94-T.Charlton) [94-T.Charlton], RECOVERED by KC-56-B.Niemann at KC 15.
Chiefs closed -7 and covered, winning by 16.
Kansas City Chiefs 26–10. Biggest swing: Q3 4:01, Chiefs +12.9% win probability on one snap.
12.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Damiere ByrdPatriotsQ3 5:59(5:59) (Shotgun) 2-B.Hoyer pass deep left to 10-D.Byrd to KC 12 for 25 yards (32-T.Mathieu).
8.1pts
N'Keal HarryPatriotsQ4 13:50(13:50) (Shotgun) 4-J.Stidham pass short left to 15-N.Harry for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
9.3pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Chiefs won this one — 1 giveaway, against Patriots at 4 giveaways.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Chiefs won this one — +0.14 expected points per dropback, against Patriots at -0.45 expected points per dropback.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Chiefs won this one — +0.05 expected points per snap, against Patriots at -0.21 expected points per snap.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Chiefs won this one — 2 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Patriots at 1 touchdown on 3 trips.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 10.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 19 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Patriots.
MarketModelmodel higher on Chiefshigher on Patriots160 of 169 plays carry both curves
(4:01) (Shotgun) 2-B.Hoyer sacked at KC 16 for -6 yards (94-T.Charlton). FUMBLES (94-T.Charlton) [94-T.Charlton], RECOVERED by KC-56-B.Niemann at KC 15.
Swing +12.9 for ChiefsExpected points +4.40 for ChiefsThe model had Patriots 13 points higher than the market did.play 107
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 4:01NE +13% win prob(4:01) (Shotgun) 2-B.Hoyer sacked at KC 16 for -6 yards (94-T.Charlton). FUMBLES (94-T.Charlton) [94-T.Charlton], RECOVERED by KC-56-B.Niemann at KC 15.
4th · 13:50KC +9% win prob(13:50) (Shotgun) 4-J.Stidham pass short left to 15-N.Harry for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 5:59KC +8% win prob(5:59) (Shotgun) 2-B.Hoyer pass deep left to 10-D.Byrd to KC 12 for 25 yards (32-T.Mathieu).
1st · 0:13NE +8% win prob(:13) 2-B.Hoyer pass deep right intended for 85-R.Izzo INTERCEPTED by 22-J.Thornhill at NE 43. 22-J.Thornhill ran ob at NE 23 for 20 yards (28-J.White).
3rd · 3:08KC +7% win prob(3:08) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right to 87-T.Kelce to NE 21 for 45 yards (30-J.McCourty).
2nd · 0:10NE +7% win prob(:10) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-B.Hoyer sacked at KC 26 for -13 yards (55-F.Clark).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Harrison Butker's 23-yard field goal with 10:11 left in the 1st put Kansas City Chiefs ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Lead
1st10:11Harrison Butker·23-yd field goal23-yard field goalholder T.Townsend · snap J.WinchesterLead never changed again+30–3
1st0:18Harrison Butker·39-yd field goal39-yard field goalholder T.Townsend · snap J.Winchester+30–6
2nd9:36Nick Folk·43-yd field goal43-yard field goalholder J.Bailey · snap J.Cardona+33–6
3rd0:49Tyreek Hill·6-yd TD catch6-yard touchdown catchfrom Patrick Mahomesfrom Patrick Mahomes+73–13
Chiefs ahead 6–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.45 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.21Patriots: −0.21 expected points added per play
+0.05Chiefs: +0.05 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.45Patriots: −0.45 expected points added per play
+0.14Chiefs: +0.14 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.08Patriots: +0.08 expected points added per play
−0.12Chiefs: −0.12 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Patriots ran 74 snaps at a 55% dropback rate against Chiefs’s 52 at 67%. Red-zone trips: Patriots 3, Chiefs 3.
NotePatriots outgained Chiefs 357-329 but lost the turnover battle 4-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
NE's sack or hit rate turned over: 16.7% in week 3 against 2.9% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
35 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.7 points.
KC's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 66.7% in week 3 against 0.0% here — they went for it then and took the kick now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
5 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 8 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 31.0 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -33 pts to 30 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −9.3 vs their 12.2%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (−1.39× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Chiefs14.6%
right on their number · −1.0 vs their 15.6%, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (−0.18× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNE's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 2.9%, 9.3 points below their season mean of 12.2% and 1.4 times their own 6.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Chiefs attack right, the Patriots attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Patriots←Chiefs→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
B.Hoyer sacked−20% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(4:01) (Shotgun) 2-B.Hoyer sacked at KC 16 for -6 yards (94-T.Charlton). FUMBLES (94-T.Charlton) [94-T.Charlton], RECOVERED by KC-56-B.Niemann at KC 15.
Q3 4:01 · Patriots · 3rd & 8 at KC 10 · lost 5 · -4.40 EP · −20.0% win probability
158 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 169 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 169 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was KC moving 85 yards from the KC 15 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; KC attacks right, NE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
169 of 169 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
169
EPA per play
-0.06
Success rate
39%
Yards
680
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Chiefs1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR38+0.1266%
Patriots2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR33-0.0336%
Patriots1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR32-0.3463%
Chiefs1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14-0.1136%
Patriots1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR5-0.18100%
Patriots2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Patriots1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR1——
Patriots2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
169 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
169 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter42 plays
Patriots0Chiefs3
Field goal12 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Patriots 5
Punt5 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Patriots 34
Punt4 plays, from the Chiefs 15 to the Chiefs 20
Punt6 plays, from the Patriots 27 to the Patriots 48
Patriots0Chiefs6
Field goal10 plays, from the Chiefs 4 to the Patriots 21
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Intercepted2 plays
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter40 plays
Fumble lost1 play
Patriots3Chiefs6
Field goal13 plays, from the Patriots 15 to the Chiefs 24
Punt8 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Chiefs 42
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFour
The period ended18 plays, from the Patriots 35 to the Chiefs 9
3rd quarter37 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Patriots 31
Punt6 plays, from the Chiefs 11 to the Chiefs 32
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldTwo backs and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFive
Fumble lost14 plays, from the Patriots 16 to the Chiefs 5
Patriots3Chiefs12
Patriots3Chiefs13
Touchdown8 plays, from the Chiefs 15 to the Patriots 6
The period ended4 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Patriots 34
4th quarter50 plays
Patriots9Chiefs13
Patriots10Chiefs13
Touchdown6 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Chiefs 4
Patriots10Chiefs19
Touchdown12 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Patriots 6
Patriots10Chiefs25
Touchdown2 plays
Patriots10Chiefs26
Intercepted13 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Chiefs 37
Punt6 plays, from the Chiefs 33 to the Chiefs 40
Turnover on downs6 plays, from the Patriots 20 to the Chiefs 40
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Chiefs -7
Closing total
52.5
Patriots moneyline
+257
Chiefs moneyline
-299
Chiefs closed -7 and covered, winning by 16.
Total closed 52.5; the game landed 36 — under by 16.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Arrowhead Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · astroturf
Kickoff weather
Mild, 69°F at kickoff; breezy at 12 mph out of the south; clear.
Referee
Tony Corrente
Rest
Patriots 8 days · Chiefs 7 days
Coaches
Bill Belichick vs Andy Reid
2nd · 15:00
NE +6% win prob
(15:00) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 14-S.Watkins to NE 15 for 8 yards (24-S.Gilmore). FUMBLES (24-S.Gilmore), RECOVERED by NE-27-J.Jackson at NE 15.
3rd · 0:49KC +6% win prob(:49) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 10-T.Hill for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
