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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 300s tick · as of 3:16 PM ET · 16 to play
New Orleans Saints 35, Lions 29 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q1 13:27, 3rd and 9, on Danny Amendola — 13.5 win-probability points to the Lions on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 13:27 · 3rd and 9
Danny Amendola
Lions
(13:27) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 80-D.Amendola to NO 14 for 50 yards (22-C.Gardner-Johnson) [98-S.Rankins].
Dome
Saints closed -3 and covered, winning by 6.
New Orleans Saints 35–29. Biggest swing: Q1 13:27, Lions +13.5% win probability on one snap.
13.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Alvin KamaraSaintsQ2 12:01(12:01) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass deep right to 41-A.Kamara to DET 14 for 29 yards (24-A.Oruwariye). NO-72-T.Armstead was injured during the play.
12.2pts
Patrick RobinsonSaintsQ2 8:38(8:38) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right intended for 88-T.Hockenson INTERCEPTED by 21-P.Robinson at NO 0. Touchback.
12.5pts
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Saints won this one — 59% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Lions at 42% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Saints won this one — 10 of 13 on third down, against Lions at 7 of 14 on third down.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Saints won this one — +0.22 expected points per carry, against Lions at -0.06 expected points per carry.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Saints won this one — +0.29 expected points per snap, against Lions at +0.06 expected points per snap.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 7.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 19 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Lions.
MarketModelmodel higher on Lionshigher on Saints159 of 169 plays carry both curves
(13:27) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 80-D.Amendola to NO 14 for 50 yards (22-C.Gardner-Johnson) [98-S.Rankins].
Swing +13.5 for LionsExpected points +4.30 for LionsThe model had Lions 14 points higher than the market did.play 8
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 13:27DET +13% win prob(13:27) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 80-D.Amendola to NO 14 for 50 yards (22-C.Gardner-Johnson) [98-S.Rankins].
2nd · 8:38NO +12% win prob(8:38) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right intended for 88-T.Hockenson INTERCEPTED by 21-P.Robinson at NO 0. Touchback.
2nd · 12:01DET +12% win prob(12:01) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass deep right to 41-A.Kamara to DET 14 for 29 yards (24-A.Oruwariye). NO-72-T.Armstead was injured during the play.
1st · 11:51NO +9% win prob(11:51) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short middle intended for 17-E.Sanders INTERCEPTED by 29-D.Roberts (71-D.Shelton) at NO 24. 29-D.Roberts to NO 18 for 6 yards (62-N.Easton).
1st · 10:29DET +9% win prob(10:29) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 19-K.Golladay for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 14:44DET +9% win prob(14:44) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford scrambles up the middle to DET 35 for 12 yards (43-M.Williams).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Tre'Quan Smith's 2-yard touchdown catch with 3:08 left in the 2nd put New Orleans Saints ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Lead
1st12:02D'Andre Swift·7-yd TD catch7-yard touchdown catchfrom Matthew Staffordfrom Matthew Stafford+70–7
1st10:29Kenny Golladay·15-yd TD catch15-yard touchdown catchfrom Matthew Staffordfrom Matthew Stafford+70–14
Saints ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — first downs.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.39 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.29Saints: +0.29 expected points added per play
+0.06Lions: +0.06 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.39Saints: +0.39 expected points added per play
+0.13Lions: +0.13 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.22Saints: +0.22 expected points added per play
−0.06Lions: −0.06 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Saints ran 66 snaps at a 41% dropback rate against Lions’s 57 at 65%. Red-zone trips: Saints 5, Lions 5.
NoteSaints won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.29 expected points added per play vs 0.06.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekOver Expected
NO's pass rate over expected, −14.8 pts, was the lowest of the 30 team-games charted in week 4 — 0.1 points clear of the next team along.
66 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.3 points.
NO's early-down pass rate turned over: 60.0% in week 3 against 36.5% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
52 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.3 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 15 pts
right on their number · +1.9 vs their 17.0%, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (+0.29× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Lions22.2%
off script — got home · +12.5 vs their 9.7%, and they swing ±4.8 week to week (+2.63× that swing) · 27 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteDET's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 22.2%, 12.5 points above their season mean of 9.7% and 2.6 times their own 4.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Lions attack right, the Saints attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Saints←Lions→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
M.Stafford pass+15% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(13:27) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 80-D.Amendola to NO 14 for 50 yards (22-C.Gardner-Johnson) [98-S.Rankins].
Q1 13:27 · Lions · 3rd & 9 at DET 36 · gained 50 · +4.30 EP · +14.9% win probability
157 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 169 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 169 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was NO moving 80 yards from the NO 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DET attacks right, NO attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
169 of 169 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
169
EPA per play
+0.13
Success rate
47%
Yards
675
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR38+0.0671%
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR25-0.1448%
Saints2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR15+1.1527%
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12-0.2142%
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR9+0.1222%
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR3——
Saints2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR2——
Saints1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR2——
Saints3 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR2——
Lions1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Lions1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
Saints2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Lions0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Saints1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
Saints2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Lions2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Saints1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
169 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
169 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter43 plays
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.7 seconds
Saints0Lions6
Saints0Lions7
Touchdown10 plays, from the Lions 23 to the Saints 7
Intercepted2 plays
Saints0Lions13
Saints0Lions14
Touchdown4 plays, from the Saints 18 to the Saints 15
Saints6Lions14
Saints7Lions14
Touchdown16 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Lions 3
Punt7 plays, from the Lions 22 to the Lions 43
The period ended3 plays, from the Saints 20 to the Saints 27
2nd quarter44 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.6 seconds
Saints13Lions14
Saints14Lions14
Touchdown9 plays, from the Saints 32 to the Lions 1
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.5 seconds
Intercepted5 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Saints 11
Saints20Lions14
Saints21Lions14
Touchdown10 plays, from the Saints 20 to the Lions 2
Punt5 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Lions 30
Saints27Lions14
Saints28Lions14
Touchdown5 plays, from the Lions 49 to the Lions 20
Punt9 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Lions 41
3rd quarter37 plays
Saints34Lions14
Saints35Lions14
Touchdown13 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Lions 4
Saints35Lions20
Saints35Lions21
Touchdown15 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Saints 1
The period ended9 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Lions 48
4th quarter45 plays
Punt4 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Lions 2 to the Lions 34
Punt4 plays
Saints35Lions27
Saints35Lions29
Touchdown16 plays, from the Saints 43 to the Saints 5
The period ended14 plays, from the Saints 22 to the Lions 42
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Saints -3
Closing total
51.5
Saints moneyline
-155
Lions moneyline
+139
Saints closed -3 and covered, winning by 6.
Total closed 51.5; the game landed 64 — over by 12.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Ford Field
Roof / surface
dome · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Shawn Smith
Rest
Saints 7 days · Lions 7 days
Coaches
Sean Payton vs Matt Patricia
2nd · 13:28NO +9% win prob(13:28) 9-D.Brees sacked at NO 49 for -11 yards (95-R.Okwara). Detroit challenged the runner was down by contact ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)
2nd · 10:37DET +8% win prob(10:37) 9-D.Brees pass short middle to 28-L.Murray to DET 1 for 19 yards (25-W.Harris). NO-10-T.Smith was injured during the play.
