2020 Week 4 · Sun, Oct 4, 2020 · Ford Field

New Orleans SaintsWinner

Detroit Lions

NO -3 ✓O 51.5 ✓DomeSaints closed -3 and covered, winning by 6.

New Orleans Saints 35–29. Biggest swing: Q1 13:27, DET +13% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 13:27NO — DET DET ball · 3rd & 9NO 62%

(13:27) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 80-D.Amendola to NO 14 for 50 yards (22-C.Gardner-Johnson) [98-S.Rankins].

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 13:27DET +13% win prob(13:27) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 80-D.Amendola to NO 14 for 50 yards (22-C.Gardner-Johnson) [98-S.Rankins].
Q2 · 8:38NO +12% win prob(8:38) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right intended for 88-T.Hockenson INTERCEPTED by 21-P.Robinson at NO 0. Touchback.
Q2 · 12:01DET +12% win prob(12:01) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass deep right to 41-A.Kamara to DET 14 for 29 yards (24-A.Oruwariye). NO-72-T.Armstead was injured during the play.
Q1 · 11:51NO +9% win prob(11:51) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short middle intended for 17-E.Sanders INTERCEPTED by 29-D.Roberts (71-D.Shelton) at NO 24. 29-D.Roberts to NO 18 for 6 yards (62-N.Easton).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Saints	Lions
Offensive plays	66	57
Total yards	395 (edge)	283
Yards per play	6.0 (edge)	5.0
Expected points added / play	0.29 (edge)	0.06
Success rate	59% (edge)	42%
Dropback rate	41%	65%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.39 (edge)	0.13
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.22 (edge)	-0.06
Third downs	10/13 (edge)	7/14
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6 (edge)	4
First downs gained on snaps	27 (edge)	17
Sacks taken	2 (edge)	3
Turnovers	1	1

Saints won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.29 expected points added per play vs 0.06.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · NO

Drew BreesQB

19/25, 246 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

10.6 expected points added · +10.9% completion over expected

Passing · DET

Matthew StaffordQB

17/31, 206 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT

2.2 expected points added · -6.4% completion over expected

Rushing · NO

Alvin KamaraRB

19 att, 83 yds, 1 TD

3.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NO

Latavius MurrayRB

14 att, 64 yds, 2 TD

6.5 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · NO

Emmanuel SandersWR

6/9 for 93 yds, 0 TD

36% of team targets · -1.3 expected points added

Receiving · DET

Kenny GolladayWR

4/8 for 62 yds, 1 TD

27% of team targets · 6.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	DET	DET 23	10	77	3:02	Touchdown
2	NO	NO 19	2	0	0:14	Interception
3	DET	NO 18	4	18	1:21	Touchdown
4	NO	NO 25	15	75	7:15	Touchdown
5	DET	DET 22	7	17	2:16	Punt
6	NO	NO 20	11	86	5:42	Touchdown
7	DET	DET 25	4	35	1:41	Interception
8	NO	NO 20	10	80	5:26	Touchdown
9	DET	DET 25	5	4	1:20	Punt
10	NO	DET 49	5	34	0:59	Touchdown
11	DET	DET 25	7	14	0:44	Punt
12	NO	NO 25	12	58	6:08	Touchdown
13	DET	DET 25	13	52	4:33	Touchdown
14	NO	NO 25	12	35	5:49	Punt
15	DET	DET 2	7	21	3:56	Punt
16	NO	NO 24	4	-9	1:33	Punt
17	DET	NO 43	13	45	4:21	Touchdown
18	NO	NO 22	10	36	3:40	End of game

0 of 18 drives ended in points. Longest march: Saints gained 86 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

New Orleans Saints

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Drew Brees	19/25	246	2	1	2	10.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Alvin Kamara	19	83	4.4	1	3.3
Latavius Murray	14	64	4.6	2	6.5
Deonte Harty	2	10	5.0	0	0.4
Taysom Hill	3	6	2.0	0	-2.3
Michael Burton	1	4	4.0	0	0.8
Drew Brees	3	-3	-1.0	0	-1.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Emmanuel Sanders	6	9	93	0	36%	-1.3
Tre'Quan Smith	4	4	54	2	16%	8.1
Alvin Kamara	3	4	36	0	16%	4.1
Latavius Murray	1	2	19	0	8%	2.0
Marquez Callaway	1	1	16	0	4%	0.9
Deonte Harty	1	2	10	0	8%	-0.1
Taysom Hill	1	1	8	0	4%	-0.7
Josh Hill	1	1	7	0	4%	1.7
Michael Burton	1	1	3	0	4%	-0.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Chauncey Gardner-Johnson	5	1	0.0	0	0
Marcus Williams	5	0	0.0	0	0
Malcolm Jenkins	5	0	0.0	0	1
Demario Davis	4	1	0.0	0	0
Alex Anzalone	4	0	0.0	0	0
Patrick Robinson	4	0	0.0	1	2
Cameron Jordan	3	1	1.0	0	0
Ken Crawley	1	0	0.0	0	0
David Onyemata	1	0	1.0	0	0
Trey Hendrickson	1	0	1.0	0	0

Detroit Lions

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Matthew Stafford	17/31	206	3	1	3	2.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Adrian Peterson	11	36	3.3	1	-0.3
D'Andre Swift	4	22	5.5	0	0.0
Matthew Stafford	3	21	7.0	0	2.2
Kerryon Johnson	3	9	3.0	0	-1.1
Jamal Agnew	1	2	2.0	0	0.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Kenny Golladay	4	8	62	1	27%	6.5
Danny Amendola	2	3	57	0	10%	2.6
Jesse James	1	2	31	0	7%	0.9
D'Andre Swift	4	4	30	1	13%	2.6
T.J. Hockenson	2	4	9	1	13%	-4.0
Marvin Jones	1	2	9	0	7%	0.4
Jason Cabinda	1	1	4	0	3%	-0.1
Kerryon Johnson	1	1	3	0	3%	2.1
Jamal Agnew	1	2	1	0	7%	-0.8
Adrian Peterson	0	2	0	0	7%	-1.7
Marvin Hall	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Jamie Collins	6	2	0.0	0
Danny Shelton	1	5	0.0	1
Reggie Ragland	4	2	1.0	0
Tracy Walker III	4	2	0.0	0
Duron Harmon	5	1	0.0	0
Christian Jones	4	1	0.0	0
John Penisini	1	4	0.0	0
Jeff Okudah	3	2	0.0	0
Trey Flowers	3	1	0.0	0
Romeo Okwara	3	0	1.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: NO -3
Closing total: 51.5
NO moneyline: -155
DET moneyline: +139

Saints closed -3 and covered, winning by 6.

Total closed 51.5; the game landed 64 — over by 12.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Ford Field
Roof / surface: dome · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Shawn Smith
Rest: NO 7 days · DET 7 days
Coaches: Sean Payton vs Matt Patricia