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Los Angeles Rams 17, Giants 9 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 7:06, 3rd and 3, on Cooper Kupp — 13.2 win-probability points to the Rams on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 7:06 · 3rd and 3
Cooper Kupp
Rams
(7:06) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 10-C.Kupp for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Dome
Rams closed -13.5, won by 8 — but didn't cover.
Los Angeles Rams 17–9. Biggest swing: Q4 7:06, Rams +13.2% win probability on one snap.
13.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Unnamed on the sheetGiantsQ4 12:39(12:39) 6-J.Hekker punts 60 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Touchback.
9.4pts
Darious WilliamsRamsQ4 0:57(:57) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short right intended for 19-D.Ratley INTERCEPTED by 31-D.Williams at LA 5. 31-D.Williams to LA 7 for 2 yards (88-E.Engram).
8.6pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Giants owned this one and still lost it — 6 chunk plays, against Rams at 2 chunk plays.
Giantsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Red zone
Rams won this one — 1 touchdown on 3 trips, against Giants at 0 touchdowns on 4 trips.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Rams won this one — 43% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Giants at 36% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Rams won this one — 5 of 12 on third down, against Giants at 4 of 13 on third down.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 15.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 30 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Giants.
MarketModelmodel higher on Ramshigher on Giants153 of 162 plays carry both curves
(7:06) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 10-C.Kupp for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +13.2 for RamsExpected points +5.31 for RamsThe model had Giants 6 points higher than the market did.play 132
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 7:06LA +13% win prob(7:06) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 10-C.Kupp for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 12:39NYG +9% win prob(12:39) 6-J.Hekker punts 60 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Touchback.
4th · 0:57NYG +9% win prob(:57) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short right intended for 19-D.Ratley INTERCEPTED by 31-D.Williams at LA 5. 31-D.Williams to LA 7 for 2 yards (88-E.Engram).
3rd · 4:18LA +7% win prob(4:18) 8-D.Jones pass short middle to 82-K.Smith to LA 38 for 10 yards (20-J.Ramsey).
4th · 12:32LA +5% win prob(12:32) 22-W.Gallman up the middle to NYG 46 for 26 yards (43-J.Johnson III; 31-D.Williams).
4th · 9:53NYG +4% win prob(9:53) 9-R.Dixon punts 39 yards to LA 9, Center-58-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 10-C.Kupp.
3rd · 12:44
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Gerald Everett's 2-yard rushing touchdown with 6:23 left in the 1st put Los Angeles Rams ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Lead
1st6:23Gerald Everett·2-yd TD run2-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+70–7
2nd14:55Graham Gano·35-yd field goal35-yard field goalholder R.Dixon · snap C.Kreiter+33–7
2nd3:56Sam Sloman·32-yd field goal32-yard field goalholder J.Hekker · snap J.McQuaide+33–10
2nd0:04Graham Gano·37-yd field goal37-yard field goalholder R.Dixon · snap C.Kreiter+36–10
4th14:15Graham Gano·27-yd field goal27-yard field goalholder R.Dixon · snap C.Kreiter+39–10
4th7:06Cooper Kupp·55-yd TD catch55-yard touchdown catchfrom Jared Gofffrom Jared Goff+79–17
6 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Giantscategory by categoryRams
Giants3–5Rams
295Total yards243
4.5Yards per play4.5
36%Success rate43%
31%Third-down rate42%
0Red-zone touchdowns1
6Explosive plays2
18First downs16
5Sacks taken2
1Turnovers1
The read
Rams ahead 5–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.18Giants: −0.18 expected points added per play
−0.10Rams: −0.10 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.22Giants: −0.22 expected points added per play
−0.17Rams: −0.17 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.09Giants: −0.09 expected points added per play
+0.02Rams: +0.02 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Giants ran 66 snaps at a 68% dropback rate against Rams’s 54 at 63%. Red-zone trips: Giants 4, Rams 3.
NoteRams won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.10 expected points added per play vs -0.18.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 17 pts
right on their number · −1.1 vs their 15.8%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (−0.18× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Rams17.8%
right on their number · +1.7 vs their 16.0%, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (+0.26× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNothing either side did tonight left its own normal range. The widest departure was LA's pass rate over expected, 5.6 pts against a season mean of -0.8 pts — and LA swings 6.8 points week to week, so that is a Sunday, not a plan.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Rams attack right, the Giants attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Giants←Rams→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Goff pass+14% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(7:06) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 10-C.Kupp for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 7:06 · Rams · 3rd & 3 at LA 45 · gained 55 · +5.31 EP · +14.4% win probability
151 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 162 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 162 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was LA moving 91 yards from the LA 9 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LA attacks right, NYG attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
162 of 162 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
162
EPA per play
-0.13
Success rate
36%
Yards
535
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Giants1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR45-0.2171%
Rams1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR33+0.0673%
Giants1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR16-0.2844%
Rams1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR13-0.4854%
Rams1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR8-0.1438%
Giants1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Giants1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Giants2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
162 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
162 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter34 plays
Punt5 plays
Giants0Rams6
Giants0Rams7
Touchdown13 plays, from the Rams 35 to the Giants 2
Punt8 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Giants 36
Fumble lost1 play
The period ended6 plays, from the Rams 34 to the Rams 10
2nd quarter44 plays
Giants3Rams7
Field goal2 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Rams 29
Punt4 plays, from the Giants 35 to the Giants 39
Giants3Rams10
Field goal16 plays, from the Rams 39 to the Giants 4
Giants6Rams10
Field goal16 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Rams 19
3rd quarter33 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Rams 21 to the Rams 42
Punt9 plays, from the Giants 20 to the Rams 43
Punt6 plays, from the Rams 9 to the Rams 20
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.2 seconds
The period ended11 plays, from the Giants 43 to the Rams 11
4th quarter51 plays
Giants9Rams10
Field goal3 plays, from the Rams 16 to the Rams 9
Punt5 plays, from the Rams 36 to the Rams 40
Punt5 plays, from the Giants 20 to the Rams 47
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.1 seconds
Giants9Rams16
Giants9Rams17
Touchdown9 plays, from the Rams 9 to the Rams 45
Turnover on downs11 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Rams 30
Punt6 plays, from the Rams 31 to the Rams 32
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.6 seconds
Intercepted7 plays, from the Giants 20 to the Rams 18
The period ended5 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
