2020 Week 4 · Sun, Oct 4, 2020 · Levi's Stadium

Philadelphia EaglesWinner

San Francisco 49ers

SF -8.5 upsetU 45.5 ✓49ers closed -8.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Philadelphia Eagles 25–20. Biggest swing: Q4 5:50, PHI +31% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 5:50PHI — SF SF ball · 1st & 10PHI 58%

(5:50) 4-N.Mullens pass short left intended for 84-K.Bourne INTERCEPTED by 49-A.Singleton at SF 30. 49-A.Singleton for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 5:50PHI +31% win prob(5:50) 4-N.Mullens pass short left intended for 84-K.Bourne INTERCEPTED by 49-A.Singleton at SF 30. 49-A.Singleton for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 5:57SF +28% win prob(5:57) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass deep left to 13-T.Fulgham for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN. caught at SF8, 8 yd YAC
Q2 · 2:51PHI +18% win prob(2:51) 4-N.Mullens pass short right intended for 15-T.Taylor INTERCEPTED by 23-R.McLeod [58-G.Avery] at PHI 6. 23-R.McLeod to PHI 27 for 21 yards (11-B.Aiyuk).
Q1 · 0:31SF +14% win prob(:31) (Shotgun) 11-B.Aiyuk right end for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI-24-D.Slay was injured during the play. #11 B.Aiyuk took a backward pass from N.Mullens

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Eagles	49ers
Offensive plays	60	70
Total yards	269	417 (edge)
Yards per play	4.5	6.0 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.08 (edge)	-0.09
Success rate	43%	44% (edge)
Dropback rate	58%	71%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.01 (edge)	-0.19
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.16	0.17 (edge)
Third downs	4/13	5/11 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6	7 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	16	25 (edge)
Sacks taken	3 (edge)	5
Turnovers	1 (edge)	3

49ers outgained Eagles 417–269 but lost the turnover battle 3–1. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · SF

Nick MullensQB

18/26, 200 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT

-12.5 expected points added · +1.8% completion over expected

Passing · PHI

Carson WentzQB

18/28, 193 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-2.1 expected points added · +1.3% completion over expected

Rushing · SF

Jerick McKinnonRB

14 att, 54 yds, 1 TD

-1.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · PHI

Miles SandersRB

13 att, 46 yds, 0 TD

-1.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · SF

George KittleTE

15/15 for 183 yds, 1 TD

37% of team targets · 13.7 expected points added

Receiving · PHI

Travis FulghamWR

2/3 for 57 yds, 1 TD

12% of team targets · 4.9 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	PHI	PHI 25	5	2	1:22	Punt
2	SF	SF 12	4	9	0:46	Punt
3	PHI	PHI 28	5	28	2:40	Interception
4	SF	SF 35	4	14	2:18	Punt
5	PHI	PHI 22	9	63	4:03	Touchdown
6	SF	SF 25	8	75	3:30	Touchdown
7	PHI	PHI 25	5	2	1:12	Punt
8	SF	SF 25	6	9	2:42	Punt
9	PHI	PHI 12	8	41	4:24	Punt
10	SF	SF 20	7	66	4:23	Interception
11	PHI	PHI 27	6	35	1:37	Punt
12	SF	SF 5	4	18	1:03	End of half
13	SF	SF 25	14	75	6:34	Touchdown
14	PHI	PHI 21	17	62	7:31	Turnover on downs
15	SF	SF 25	7	24	3:01	Punt
16	PHI	PHI 11	4	-5	2:10	Punt
17	SF	SF 45	3	-3	0:46	Fumble
18	PHI	SF 42	8	45	4:08	Touchdown
19	SF	SF 25	2	0	0:08	Defensive touchdown
20	SF	SF 25	14	70	3:40	Touchdown
21	PHI	SF 49	5	-4	0:22	Punt
22	SF	SF 12	9	60	1:40	Turnover on downs

0 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: 49ers gained 75 scrimmage yards over 8 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Philadelphia Eagles

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Carson Wentz	18/28	193	1	1	3	-2.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Miles Sanders	13	46	3.5	0	-1.4
Carson Wentz	7	37	5.3	1	4.7
Jalen Hurts	3	18	6.0	0	-1.8
Corey Clement	2	3	1.5	0	-0.7
Boston Scott	2	1	0.5	0	-1.5
Adrian Killins	1	-12	-12.0	0	-1.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Travis Fulgham	2	3	57	1	12%	4.9
Greg Ward	4	7	38	0	27%	-3.1
Richard Rodgers	3	4	35	0	15%	2.7
Miles Sanders	2	4	30	0	15%	-1.5
John Hightower	2	2	22	0	8%	3.5
Zach Ertz	4	5	9	0	19%	-1.8
Adrian Killins	1	1	2	0	4%	-0.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Rodney McLeod	8	1	0.0	1	1
Marcus Epps	4	4	0.0	0	0
Nathan Gerry	4	3	0.0	0	0
Cre'von LeBlanc	4	2	1.0	0	0
Duke Riley	2	3	0.0	0	0
Derek Barnett	2	2	0.5	0	0
Darius Slay	4	0	0.0	0	1
T.J. Edwards	3	0	0.0	0	0
Jalen Mills	3	0	0.0	0	0
Josh Sweat	2	0	1.0	0	0

San Francisco 49ers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Nick Mullens	18/26	200	1	2	4	-12.5
C.J. Beathard	14/19	138	0	0	1	3.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Jerick McKinnon	14	54	3.9	1	-1.3
Brandon Aiyuk	1	38	38.0	1	4.8
Deebo Samuel	1	10	10.0	0	0.7
George Kittle	1	8	8.0	0	0.5
Jeffery Wilson	3	6	2.0	0	-1.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
George Kittle	15	15	183	1	37%	13.7
Jerick McKinnon	7	8	43	0	20%	-1.1
Deebo Samuel	3	3	35	0	7%	2.8
Kendrick Bourne	3	6	33	0	15%	-7.9
Brandon Aiyuk	2	5	18	0	12%	1.5
Jeffery Wilson	1	1	13	0	2%	0.5
Kyle Juszczyk	1	2	13	0	5%	-0.7
Trent Taylor	0	1	0	0	2%	-5.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Kwon Alexander	6	3	0.0	0	0
Arik Armstead	4	1	0.5	0	0
Fred Warner	3	2	0.0	0	0
Jaquiski Tartt	3	1	0.0	0	1
Javon Kinlaw	2	2	0.0	0	1
Kerry Hyder	3	1	0.5	0	0
Jimmie Ward	3	1	0.0	0	0
Jason Verrett	3	1	0.0	0	0
Azeez Al-Shaair	2	1	0.0	1	1
Dontae Johnson	2	1	0.0	0	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: SF -8.5
Closing total: 45.5
PHI moneyline: +273
SF moneyline: -320

49ers closed -8.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 45.5; the game landed 45 — under by 0.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Levi's Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 84°F, wind 12 mph
Referee: Bill Vinovich
Rest: PHI 7 days · SF 7 days
Coaches: Doug Pederson vs Kyle Shanahan