2020 Week 4 · Sun, Oct 4, 2020 · Hard Rock Stadium

Seattle SeahawksWinner

Miami Dolphins

SEA -4.5 ✓U 55 ✓Seahawks closed -4.5 and covered, winning by 8.

Seattle Seahawks 31–23. Biggest swing: Q4 12:14, MIA +9% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 12:14SEA — MIA MIA ball · 3rd & 10SEA 77%

(12:14) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass deep left to 84-I.Ford to SEA 40 for 16 yards (28-U.Amadi). Penalty on SEA-28-U.Amadi, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 12:14MIA +9% win prob(12:14) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass deep left to 84-I.Ford to SEA 40 for 16 yards (28-U.Amadi). Penalty on SEA-28-U.Amadi, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
Q4 · 11:41MIA +8% win prob(11:41) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick scrambles up the middle to SEA 30 for 10 yards (35-R.Neal).
Q2 · 0:19MIA +8% win prob(:19) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep left to 83-D.Moore pushed ob at MIA 7 for 57 yards (33-J.Perry).
Q2 · 4:52SEA +8% win prob(4:52) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson sacked at MIA 25 for -7 yards (91-E.Ogbah).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Seahawks	Dolphins
Offensive plays	59	69
Total yards	444 (edge)	417
Yards per play	7.5 (edge)	6.0
Expected points added / play	0.24 (edge)	0.07
Success rate	58% (edge)	55%
Dropback rate	63%	74%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.34 (edge)	0.13
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.05 (edge)	-0.11
Third downs	4/9	7/13 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	7 (edge)	6
First downs gained on snaps	25	26 (edge)
Sacks taken	2	1 (edge)
Turnovers	1 (edge)	2

Seahawks won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.24 expected points added per play vs 0.07.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · SEA

Russell WilsonQB

24/34, 360 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

10.9 expected points added · +11.5% completion over expected

Passing · MIA

Ryan FitzpatrickQB

29/45, 315 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT

3.6 expected points added · -4.2% completion over expected

Rushing · SEA

Chris CarsonRB

16 att, 80 yds, 2 TD

4.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · MIA

Ryan FitzpatrickQB

6 att, 47 yds, 1 TD

3.5 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · MIA

DeVante ParkerWR

10/12 for 110 yds, 0 TD

27% of team targets · 5.9 expected points added

Receiving · SEA

DK MetcalfWR

4/6 for 106 yds, 0 TD

18% of team targets · 2.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	MIA	MIA 25	5	17	2:08	Interception
2	SEA	SEA 43	6	57	2:52	Touchdown
3	SEA	MIA 25	6	8	1:46	Punt
4	SEA	SEA 21	5	22	1:39	Punt
5	MIA	MIA 23	9	64	4:02	Turnover on downs
6	SEA	SEA 25	8	39	2:26	Turnover on downs
7	MIA	MIA 25	9	64	3:43	Turnover on downs
8	SEA	SEA 11	14	63	6:39	Turnover on downs
9	MIA	MIA 25	10	48	4:21	Turnover on downs
10	SEA	SEA 25	6	75	0:21	Touchdown
11	MIA	—	1	0	0:03	End of half
12	SEA	SEA 31	12	58	5:04	Interception
13	MIA	MIA 20	10	55	5:49	Turnover on downs
14	SEA	SEA 25	6	12	2:37	Punt
15	MIA	MIA 16	17	73	7:59	Turnover on downs
16	SEA	SEA 25	8	75	3:07	Touchdown
17	MIA	MIA 25	5	11	1:08	Interception
18	SEA	MIA 33	3	33	0:16	Touchdown
19	MIA	MIA 25	10	77	2:10	Touchdown
20	SEA	SEA 43	7	10	1:50	End of game

0 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Dolphins gained 77 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Seattle Seahawks

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Russell Wilson	24/34	360	2	1	2	10.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Chris Carson	16	80	5.0	2	4.2
DeeJay Dallas	2	8	4.0	0	-0.2
Russell Wilson	4	5	1.3	0	0.4
Travis Homer	4	5	1.3	0	-2.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
DK Metcalf	4	6	106	0	18%	2.0
David Moore	3	4	95	1	12%	6.2
Tyler Lockett	2	4	39	0	12%	1.0
Greg Olsen	5	7	35	0	21%	0.5
Freddie Swain	2	3	32	0	9%	1.3
Chris Carson	3	4	20	0	12%	0.8
DeeJay Dallas	2	2	15	0	6%	1.2
Will Dissly	2	2	15	0	6%	0.4
Travis Homer	1	1	3	1	3%	3.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Bobby Wagner	10	2	0	1
K.J. Wright	6	2	0	3
Tre Flowers	4	3	0	0
Ryan Neal	5	1	1	2
Quandre Diggs	2	2	0	0
Ugochukwu Amadi	3	0	0	2
Cody Barton	1	2	0	0
Benson Mayowa	3	0	0	1
Jarran Reed	2	1	0	0
Shaquem Griffin	2	0	0	0

Miami Dolphins

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Ryan Fitzpatrick	29/45	315	0	2	1	3.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Ryan Fitzpatrick	6	47	7.8	1	3.5
Myles Gaskin	10	40	4.0	0	-0.4
Matt Breida	3	9	3.0	0	-0.9
Lynn Bowden	1	5	5.0	0	0.0
Jordan Howard	2	2	1.0	0	-1.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
DeVante Parker	10	12	110	27%	5.9
Isaiah Ford	4	10	48	22%	-3.9
Matt Breida	3	3	39	7%	1.8
Jakeem Grant	3	5	36	11%	-1.5
Durham Smythe	2	2	30	4%	2.0
Myles Gaskin	3	4	22	9%	0.4
Mike Gesicki	1	3	15	7%	-0.4
Preston Williams	1	3	15	7%	0.9
Chandler Cox	1	1	3	2%	0.3
Adam Shaheen	0	1	0	2%	-0.3
Jordan Howard	1	1	-3	2%	-1.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Elandon Roberts	4	3	0.0	0	0
Eric Rowe	6	0	0.0	0	0
Jamal Perry	3	2	0.0	0	1
Kyle Van Noy	4	1	0.0	0	0
Emmanuel Ogbah	3	2	1.0	0	0
Bobby McCain	4	0	0.0	0	1
Davon Godchaux	2	1	0.0	0	0
Zach Sieler	2	1	0.0	0	0
Kamu Grugier-Hill	2	1	0.0	0	0
Xavien Howard	3	0	0.0	1	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: SEA -4.5
Closing total: 55
SEA moneyline: -223
MIA moneyline: +196

Seahawks closed -4.5 and covered, winning by 8.

Total closed 55; the game landed 54 — under by 1.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Hard Rock Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 86°F, wind 13 mph
Referee: Scott Novak
Rest: SEA 7 days · MIA 10 days
Coaches: Pete Carroll vs Brian Flores