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2020 Week 4 · Sun, Oct 4, 2020 · Hard Rock Stadium
Final
SeahawksSeattle31
BY 8final margin
DolphinsMiami23
Seattle Seahawks 31 at Miami Dolphins 23. Final.
Seahawks -4.5 ✓U 55 ✓
The verdict · 2020 Week 4
Seattle Seahawks 31, Dolphins 23 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 12:14, 3rd and 10, on Isaiah Ford — 9.0 win-probability points to the Dolphins on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 12:14 · 3rd and 10
Isaiah Ford
Dolphins
(12:14) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass deep left to 84-I.Ford to SEA 40 for 16 yards (28-U.Amadi). Penalty on SEA-28-U.Amadi, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
Seahawks closed -4.5 and covered, winning by 8.
Seattle Seahawks 31–23. Biggest swing: Q4 12:14, Dolphins +9.0% win probability on one snap.
9.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
David MooreSeahawksQ2 0:19(:19) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep left to 83-D.Moore pushed ob at MIA 7 for 57 yards (33-J.Perry).
8.3pts
Ryan FitzpatrickDolphinsQ4 11:41(11:41) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick scrambles up the middle to SEA 30 for 10 yards (35-R.Neal).
8.4pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Seahawks won this one — 1 giveaway, against Dolphins at 2 giveaways.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Seahawks won this one — 4 touchdowns on 7 trips, against Dolphins at 1 touchdown on 3 trips.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Seahawks won this one — +0.24 expected points per snap, against Dolphins at +0.07 expected points per snap.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Seahawks won this one — +0.05 expected points per carry, against Dolphins at -0.11 expected points per carry.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 10.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 24 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Dolphins.
MarketModelmodel higher on Dolphinshigher on Seahawks162 of 175 plays carry both curves
(12:14) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass deep left to 84-I.Ford to SEA 40 for 16 yards (28-U.Amadi). Penalty on SEA-28-U.Amadi, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
Swing +9.0 for DolphinsExpected points +2.08 for DolphinsThe model had Dolphins 8 points higher than the market did.play 128
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 12:14MIA +9% win prob(12:14) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass deep left to 84-I.Ford to SEA 40 for 16 yards (28-U.Amadi). Penalty on SEA-28-U.Amadi, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
4th · 11:41MIA +8% win prob(11:41) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick scrambles up the middle to SEA 30 for 10 yards (35-R.Neal).
2nd · 0:19MIA +8% win prob(:19) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep left to 83-D.Moore pushed ob at MIA 7 for 57 yards (33-J.Perry).
2nd · 4:52SEA +8% win prob(4:52) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson sacked at MIA 25 for -7 yards (91-E.Ogbah).
1st · 13:03SEA +8% win prob(13:03) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass deep left intended for 19-J.Grant INTERCEPTED by 35-R.Neal (95-B.Mayowa) at SEA 42. 35-R.Neal to SEA 43 for 1 yard (19-J.Grant).
3rd · 10:00SEA +8% win prob(10:00) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short middle intended for 14-D.Metcalf INTERCEPTED by 25-X.Howard at MIA -5. Touchback.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
7 points with 10:00 left in the 1st put Seattle Seahawks ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 10 scores that followed.
Lead
1st10:00Seahawks·7 pts7 pointsthe league feed did not file the play that scored themthe league feed did not file the play that scored themLead never changed again+77–0
1st2:38Jason Sanders·41-yd field goal41-yard field goalholder M.Haack · snap B.Ferguson+37–3
1st0:11Jason Myers·55-yd field goal55-yard field goalholder M.Dickson · snap T.Ott+310–3
2nd11:28Jason Sanders·29-yd field goal29-yard field goalholder M.Haack · snap B.Ferguson+310–6
2nd0:29Jason Sanders·45-yd field goal45-yard field goalholder M.Haack · snap B.Ferguson+310–9
2nd0:06Travis Homer·3-yd TD catch3-yard touchdown catchfrom Russell Wilsonfrom Russell Wilson+717–9
3rd4:12Jason Sanders·43-yd field goal43-yard field goalholder M.Haack · snap B.Ferguson+317–12
4th8:35Jason Sanders·29-yd field goal29-yard field goalholder M.Haack · snap B.Ferguson+317–15
4th5:30David Moore·17-yd TD catch17-yard touchdown catchfrom Russell Wilsonfrom Russell Wilson+724–15
Seahawks ahead 6–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.24Seahawks: +0.24 expected points added per play
+0.07Dolphins: +0.07 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.34Seahawks: +0.34 expected points added per play
+0.13Dolphins: +0.13 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.05Seahawks: +0.05 expected points added per play
−0.11Dolphins: −0.11 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Seahawks ran 59 snaps at a 63% dropback rate against Dolphins’s 69 at 74%. Red-zone trips: Seahawks 7, Dolphins 3.
NoteSeahawks won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.24 expected points added per play vs 0.07.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
MIA's early-down pass rate turned over: 38.1% in week 3 against 74.5% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.9 of their own weekly swings across the two.
55 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.7 points.
MIA's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 33.3% in week 3 against 0.0% here — they went for it then and took the kick now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
4 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 9 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 15.9 points.
MIA's pass rate over expected turned over: −6.3 pts in week 3 against +7.8 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
68 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.4 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -14 pts to 21 pts
inside their normal wobble · −5.1 vs their 14.9%, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (−0.92× that swing) · 51 dropbacks
Dolphins13.5%
right on their number · −2.0 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (−0.30× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteMIA's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 74.5%, 16.8 points above their season mean of 57.7% and 1.3 times their own 12.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Dolphins attack right, the Seahawks attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Seahawks←Dolphins→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
M.Gaskin left−16% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(9:18) (Shotgun) 37-M.Gaskin left tackle to SEA 11 for -2 yards (98-A.Robinson).
Q4 9:18 · Dolphins · 3rd & 3 at SEA 9 · lost 2 · -1.51 EP · −15.6% win probability
160 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 175 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 175 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
11 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was SEA moving 75 yards from the SEA 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; MIA attacks right, SEA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
175 of 175 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
175
EPA per play
+0.14
Success rate
51%
Yards
858
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Dolphins1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR47+0.1368%
Seahawks1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR42+0.1360%
Seahawks1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR15+0.5267%
Dolphins1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8+0.1688%
Dolphins2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Dolphins2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Dolphins1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Dolphins1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Seahawks1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
Seahawks1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
175 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
175 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter44 plays
Intercepted5 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Dolphins 42
Drive ended5 plays, from the Seahawks 43 to the Dolphins 3
Seahawks7Dolphins0
Punt6 plays
Drive ended2 plays, from the Seahawks 21 to the Seahawks 44
Touchdown1 play
Punt3 plays
Seahawks7Dolphins3
Field goal10 plays, from the Dolphins 23 to the Seahawks 20
Seahawks10Dolphins3
Field goal8 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Dolphins 36
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter44 plays
Seahawks10Dolphins6
Field goal7 plays, from the Seahawks 49 to the Seahawks 11
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFive
Turnover on downs15 plays, from the Seahawks 11 to the Dolphins 18
Seahawks10Dolphins9
Field goal10 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Seahawks 27
Seahawks16Dolphins9
Seahawks17Dolphins9
Touchdown10 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Dolphins 3
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter34 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
Intercepted14 plays, from the Seahawks 31 to the Dolphins 6
Seahawks17Dolphins12
Field goal10 plays, from the Dolphins 20 to the Seahawks 25
Punt6 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Seahawks 43
The period ended4 plays, from the Dolphins 16 to the Dolphins 32
4th quarter53 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Seahawks17Dolphins15
Field goal15 plays, from the Dolphins 36 to the Seahawks 9
Seahawks23Dolphins15
Seahawks24Dolphins15
Touchdown8 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Dolphins 17
Intercepted5 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Dolphins 36
Seahawks30Dolphins15
Seahawks31Dolphins15
Touchdown3 plays, from the Dolphins 33 to the Dolphins 1
Seahawks31Dolphins21
Seahawks31Dolphins23
Touchdown10 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Seahawks 10
The period ended12 plays, from the Seahawks 43 to the Dolphins 47
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
