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Arizona Cardinals 30, Jets 10 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q2 7:58, 3rd and 6, on Avery Williamson — 9.7 win-probability points to the Jets on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 7:58 · 3rd and 6
Avery Williamson
Jets
(7:58) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right intended for 13-C.Kirk INTERCEPTED by 54-A.Williamson (46-N.Hewitt) at ARI 31. 54-A.Williamson pushed ob at ARI 10 for 21 yards (41-K.Drake).
Cardinals closed -7 and covered, winning by 20.
Arizona Cardinals 30–10 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 7:58, Jets +9.7% win probability on one snap.
9.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Andy IsabellaCardinalsQ2 5:09(5:09) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep right to 17-A.Isabella to NYJ 34 for 24 yards (30-B.McDougald). Penalty on NYJ-93-T.Basham, Defensive Offside, declined.
5.6pts
Jamison CrowderJetsQ3 5:59(5:59) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short right to 82-J.Crowder for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4.8pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Cardinals won this one — 11 chunk plays, against Jets at 4 chunk plays.
Cardinalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Cardinals won this one — +0.16 expected points per carry, against Jets at -0.27 expected points per carry.
Cardinalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Cardinals won this one — +0.26 expected points per snap, against Jets at -0.13 expected points per snap.
Cardinalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Cardinals won this one — 52% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Jets at 39% of snaps stayed on schedule.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 12.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 31 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jets.
MarketModelmodel higher on Jetshigher on Cardinals175 of 181 plays carry both curves
(7:58) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right intended for 13-C.Kirk INTERCEPTED by 54-A.Williamson (46-N.Hewitt) at ARI 31. 54-A.Williamson pushed ob at ARI 10 for 21 yards (41-K.Drake).
Swing +9.7 for JetsExpected points +5.54 for JetsThe model had Jets 16 points higher than the market did.play 59
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 7:58ARI +10% win prob(7:58) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right intended for 13-C.Kirk INTERCEPTED by 54-A.Williamson (46-N.Hewitt) at ARI 31. 54-A.Williamson pushed ob at ARI 10 for 21 yards (41-K.Drake).
2nd · 5:09NYJ +6% win prob(5:09) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep right to 17-A.Isabella to NYJ 34 for 24 yards (30-B.McDougald). Penalty on NYJ-93-T.Basham, Defensive Offside, declined.
3rd · 5:59NYJ +5% win prob(5:59) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short right to 82-J.Crowder for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 9:05ARI +5% win prob(9:05) 26-L.Bell up the middle to ARI 13 for no gain (59-D.Campbell, 32-B.Baker).
3rd · 3:49NYJ +4% win prob(3:49) 1-K.Murray pass short right to 81-D.Daniels to NYJ 30 for 31 yards (46-N.Hewitt).
1st · 9:15NYJ +3% win prob(9:15) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray up the middle to ARI 41 for 16 yards (34-B.Poole).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Chase Edmonds's 29-yard rushing touchdown with 7:40 left in the 1st put Arizona Cardinals ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Lead
1st7:40Chase Edmonds·29-yd TD run29-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+77–0
2nd7:04Sam Ficken·26-yd field goal26-yard field goalholder B.Mann · snap T.Hennessy+37–3
Cardinals ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.26Cardinals: +0.26 expected points added per play
−0.13Jets: −0.13 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.33Cardinals: +0.33 expected points added per play
−0.05Jets: −0.05 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.16Cardinals: +0.16 expected points added per play
−0.27Jets: −0.27 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Cardinals ran 65 snaps at a 58% dropback rate against Jets’s 64 at 63%. Red-zone trips: Cardinals 4, Jets 3.
NoteCardinals won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.26 expected points added per play vs -0.13.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
NYJ's sack or hit rate, 2.6%, was the lowest of the 28 team-games charted in week 5 — 0.5 points clear of the next team along.
38 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.9 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19 pts to 15 pts
right on their number · −1.6 vs their 16.6%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (−0.25× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Jets2.6%
leaned — stayed blocked · −10.5 vs their 13.1%, and they swing ±8.9 week to week (−1.18× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNYJ's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 2.6%, 10.5 points below their season mean of 13.1% and 1.2 times their own 8.9-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Jets attack right, the Cardinals attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Cardinals←Jets→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
K.Murray pass−16% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(7:58) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right intended for 13-C.Kirk INTERCEPTED by 54-A.Williamson (46-N.Hewitt) at ARI 31. 54-A.Williamson pushed ob at ARI 10 for 21 yards (41-K.Drake).
Q2 7:58 · Cardinals · 3rd & 6 at ARI 32 · gained nothing · -5.54 EP · −15.9% win probability
173 snaps placed · 8 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 181 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 181 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was ARI moving 96 yards from the ARI 4 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NYJ attacks right, ARI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
181 of 181 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
181
EPA per play
+0.02
Success rate
42%
Yards
781
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Jets1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR48-0.0569%
Cardinals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR21+0.5148%
Cardinals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR19-0.0368%
Cardinals1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR16+0.4881%
Jets1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR13-0.1015%
Cardinals2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6+0.130%
Jets1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Cardinals2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR2——
Cardinals2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
181 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
181 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter44 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Jets 34
Punt4 plays, from the Cardinals 17 to the Cardinals 22
Punt4 plays, from the Jets 27 to the Jets 35
Cardinals6Jets0
Cardinals7Jets0
Touchdown9 plays, from the Cardinals 11 to the Jets 29
Punt7 plays, from the Jets 12 to the Jets 27
Punt8 plays, from the Cardinals 34 to the Jets 40
The period ended6 plays, from the Jets 8 to the Jets 40
2nd quarter54 plays
Turnover on downs11 plays, from the Jets 42 to the Cardinals 13
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.9 seconds
Intercepted4 plays, from the Cardinals 13 to the Cardinals 32
Cardinals7Jets3
Field goal5 plays, from the Cardinals 10 to the Cardinals 8
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back and four receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw5.3 seconds
Cardinals13Jets3
Cardinals14Jets3
Touchdown14 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Jets 2
The period ended10 plays, from the Jets 15 to the Jets 48
Drive ended4 plays, from the Cardinals 19 to the Cardinals 31
The period ended1 play
Cardinals17Jets3
Field goal3 plays, from the Jets 39 to the Jets 29
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter43 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Cardinals 49
Punt4 plays, from the Jets 22 to the Jets 31
Punt6 plays, from the Cardinals 32 to the Cardinals 36
Cardinals17Jets9
Cardinals17Jets10
Touchdown7 plays, from the Jets 26 to the Cardinals 11
Cardinals23Jets10
Cardinals24Jets10
Touchdown12 plays, from the Cardinals 30 to the Jets 1
The period ended6 plays, from the Jets 17 to the Jets 23
4th quarter40 plays
Punt9 plays, from the Jets 20 to the Cardinals 49
Cardinals30Jets10
Touchdown10 plays, from the Cardinals 4 to the Jets 32
Turnover on downs13 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Cardinals 27
The period ended8 plays, from the Cardinals 35 to the Jets 43
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Cardinalscategory by categoryJets
Cardinals6
Jets0
