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Tennessee Titans 42, Bills 16 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q3 3:26, 2nd and 4, on Malcolm Butler — 16.3 win-probability points to the Titans on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 3:26 · 2nd and 4
Malcolm Butler
Titans
(3:26) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left intended for 13-G.Davis INTERCEPTED by 21-M.Butler at TEN 20. 21-M.Butler to BUF 12 for 68 yards (17-J.Allen).
Bills closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Tennessee Titans 42–16 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q3 3:26, Titans +16.3% win probability on one snap.
16.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Malcolm ButlerTitansQ1 13:41(13:41) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep left intended for 18-A.Roberts INTERCEPTED by 21-M.Butler at BUF 45. 21-M.Butler to BUF 16 for 29 yards (75-Da.Williams).
14.7pts
Unnamed on the sheetBillsQ2 3:09(3:09) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 71 yards to TEN 19, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 14-K.Raymond to TEN 27 for 8 yards (44-T.Matakevich). PENALTY on TEN-23-T.Smith, Offensive Holding, 9 yards, enforced at TEN 19.
13.1pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Titans won this one — no giveaways, against Bills at 3 giveaways.
Titansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Titans won this one — 6 touchdowns on 6 trips, against Bills at 1 touchdown on 3 trips.
Titansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Titans won this one — +0.62 expected points per dropback, against Bills at +0.02 expected points per dropback.
Titansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Titans won this one — +0.29 expected points per snap, against Bills at +0.02 expected points per snap.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 9.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 20 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Titans.
MarketModelmodel higher on Titanshigher on Bills172 of 183 plays carry both curves
(3:26) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left intended for 13-G.Davis INTERCEPTED by 21-M.Butler at TEN 20. 21-M.Butler to BUF 12 for 68 yards (17-J.Allen).
Swing +16.3 for TitansExpected points +8.78 for TitansThe model had Titans 8 points higher than the market did.play 123
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 3:26BUF +16% win prob(3:26) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left intended for 13-G.Davis INTERCEPTED by 21-M.Butler at TEN 20. 21-M.Butler to BUF 12 for 68 yards (17-J.Allen).
1st · 13:41BUF +15% win prob(13:41) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep left intended for 18-A.Roberts INTERCEPTED by 21-M.Butler at BUF 45. 21-M.Butler to BUF 16 for 29 yards (75-Da.Williams).
2nd · 3:09TEN +13% win prob(3:09) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 71 yards to TEN 19, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 14-K.Raymond to TEN 27 for 8 yards (44-T.Matakevich). PENALTY on TEN-23-T.Smith, Offensive Holding, 9 yards, enforced at TEN 19.
1st · 0:53TEN +9% win prob(:53) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short middle to 14-K.Raymond to BUF 20 for 20 yards (24-T.Johnson).
1st · 7:22TEN +9% win prob(7:22) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep left to 18-A.Roberts ran ob at TEN 12 for 16 yards.
1st · 9:56TEN +7% win prob(9:56) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 13-G.Davis to TEN 33 for 15 yards (55-J.Brown).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Derrick Henry's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 13:57 left in the 2nd put Tennessee Titans ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Lead
1st12:50A.J. Brown·16-yd TD catch16-yard touchdown catchfrom Ryan Tannehillfrom Ryan Tannehill+70–7
4th2:05Jonnu Smith·7-yd TD catch7-yard touchdown catchfrom Ryan Tannehillfrom Ryan Tannehill+716–42
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Billscategory by categoryTitans
Bills4–5Titans
371Total yards334
5.4Yards per play5.4
51%Success rate50%
76%Third-down rate60%
1Red-zone touchdowns6
2Explosive plays4
24First downs23
1Sacks taken0
3Turnovers0
The read
Titans ahead 5–4 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.62 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.02Bills: +0.02 expected points added per play
+0.29Titans: +0.29 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.02Bills: +0.02 expected points added per play
+0.62Titans: +0.62 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.03Bills: +0.03 expected points added per play
−0.05Titans: −0.05 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bills ran 69 snaps at a 72% dropback rate against Titans’s 62 at 50%. Red-zone trips: Bills 3, Titans 6.
NoteBills outgained Titans 371-334 but lost the turnover battle 3-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
BUF's sack or hit rate, 6.5%, is past their previous low of 8.2% in week 4 — the lowest of their 5 charted games through week 5.
31 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.0 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -26 pts to 34 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −8.2 vs their 14.6%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (−1.36× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Titans6.0%
inside their normal wobble · −4.6 vs their 10.6%, and they swing ±7.9 week to week (−0.58× that swing) · 50 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteTEN's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -1.3 pts, 8.4 points above their season mean of -9.7 pts and 1.6 times their own 5.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Titans attack right, the Bills attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bills←Titans→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Allen pass−13% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(13:41) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep left intended for 18-A.Roberts INTERCEPTED by 21-M.Butler at BUF 45. 21-M.Butler to BUF 16 for 29 yards (75-Da.Williams).
Q1 13:41 · Bills · 3rd & 4 at BUF 26 · gained nothing · -5.05 EP · −12.8% win probability
170 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 183 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 183 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was BUF moving 90 yards from the BUF 10 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; TEN attacks right, BUF attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
183 of 183 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
183
EPA per play
+0.06
Success rate
46%
Yards
704
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR58+0.1166%
Titans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR28+0.3857%
Titans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR25+0.1736%
Bills1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR8-0.6388%
Titans1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR7+0.3529%
Bills2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR2——
Bills1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR1——
Titans1 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Titans0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
183 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
183 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter44 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back and four receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.3 seconds
Intercepted4 plays, from the Bills 20 to the Bills 26
Bills0Titans6
Bills0Titans7
Touchdown3 plays
Bills6Titans7
Bills7Titans7
Touchdown19 plays, from the Bills 24 to the Titans 3
Punt6 plays, from the Titans 19 to the Titans 35
Punt5 plays, from the Bills 9 to the Bills 18
The period ended6 plays, from the Bills 30 to the Bills 20
2nd quarter54 plays
Bills7Titans13
Bills7Titans14
Touchdown4 plays, from the Bills 18 to the Bills 1
Bills10Titans14
Field goal11 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Titans 25
Punt13 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Bills 36
Punt4 plays, from the Bills 9 to the Bills 10
Bills10Titans20
Bills10Titans21
Touchdown19 plays, from the Titans 10 to the Bills 10
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter35 plays
Punt11 plays, from the Titans 12 to the Bills 44
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
Intercepted14 plays, from the Bills 3 to the Titans 33
Bills10Titans27
Bills10Titans28
Touchdown5 plays, from the Bills 12 to the Bills 4
The period ended5 plays, from the Bills 10 to the Bills 17
4th quarter50 plays
Bills16Titans28
Touchdown15 plays, from the Bills 28 to the Titans 17
Bills16Titans34
Bills16Titans35
Touchdown16 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Bills 9
Fumble lost1 play
Bills16Titans41
Bills16Titans42
Touchdown9 plays, from the Bills 18 to the Bills 6
The period ended9 plays, from the Bills 31 to the Titans 20
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
