2020 Week 5 · Tue, Oct 13, 2020 · Nissan Stadium

Buffalo Bills

Tennessee TitansWinner

BUF -3 upsetO 52 ✓Bills closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Tennessee Titans 42–16 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q3 3:26, BUF +16% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q3 · 3:26BUF — TEN BUF ball · 2nd & 4TEN 74%

(3:26) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left intended for 13-G.Davis INTERCEPTED by 21-M.Butler at TEN 20. 21-M.Butler to BUF 12 for 68 yards (17-J.Allen).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q3 · 3:26BUF +16% win prob(3:26) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left intended for 13-G.Davis INTERCEPTED by 21-M.Butler at TEN 20. 21-M.Butler to BUF 12 for 68 yards (17-J.Allen).
Q1 · 13:41BUF +15% win prob(13:41) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep left intended for 18-A.Roberts INTERCEPTED by 21-M.Butler at BUF 45. 21-M.Butler to BUF 16 for 29 yards (75-Da.Williams).
Q2 · 3:09TEN +13% win prob(3:09) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 71 yards to TEN 19, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 14-K.Raymond to TEN 27 for 8 yards (44-T.Matakevich). PENALTY on TEN-23-T.Smith, Offensive Holding, 9 yards, enforced at TEN 19.
Q1 · 0:53TEN +9% win prob(:53) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short middle to 14-K.Raymond to BUF 20 for 20 yards (24-T.Johnson).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Bills	Titans
Offensive plays	69	62
Total yards	371 (edge)	334
Yards per play	5.4	5.4 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.02	0.29 (edge)
Success rate	51% (edge)	50%
Dropback rate	72%	50%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.02	0.62 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.03 (edge)	-0.05
Third downs	13/17 (edge)	6/10
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	2	4 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	24 (edge)	23
Sacks taken	1	0 (edge)
Turnovers	3	0 (edge)

Bills outgained Titans 371–334 but lost the turnover battle 3–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · BUF

Josh AllenQB

26/41, 263 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT

2.4 expected points added · +0.4% completion over expected

Passing · TEN

Ryan TannehillQB

21/28, 195 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

13.9 expected points added · +8.4% completion over expected

Rushing · TEN

Derrick HenryRB

19 att, 57 yds, 2 TD

-0.8 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · BUF

T.J. YeldonRB

7 att, 52 yds, 0 TD

3.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · BUF

Stefon DiggsWR

10/16 for 106 yds, 0 TD

36% of team targets · 5.8 expected points added

Receiving · TEN

A.J. BrownWR

7/9 for 82 yds, 1 TD

32% of team targets · 7.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	BUF	BUF 20	4	6	1:31	Interception
2	TEN	BUF 16	3	16	0:44	Touchdown
3	BUF	BUF 24	17	76	6:43	Touchdown
4	TEN	TEN 19	6	16	2:09	Punt
5	BUF	BUF 9	4	9	1:54	Punt
6	TEN	BUF 30	8	40	3:05	Touchdown
7	BUF	BUF 25	11	50	5:19	Turnover on downs
8	TEN	TEN 25	10	44	4:40	Punt
9	BUF	BUF 9	4	1	1:00	Punt
10	TEN	TEN 10	13	78	2:39	Touchdown
11	BUF	BUF 25	2	0	0:16	End of half
12	TEN	TEN 12	11	44	5:10	Punt
13	BUF	BUF 3	14	64	6:45	Interception
14	TEN	BUF 12	4	8	1:16	Touchdown
15	BUF	BUF 10	16	105	6:49	Touchdown
16	TEN	TEN 25	13	70	6:03	Touchdown
17	BUF	—	1	0	0:08	Fumble
18	TEN	BUF 18	7	18	1:50	Touchdown
19	BUF	BUF 31	8	60	1:59	End of game

0 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bills gained 105 scrimmage yards over 16 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Buffalo Bills

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Josh Allen	26/41	263	2	2	1	2.4
Matt Barkley	3/5	22	0	0	0	-3.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
T.J. Yeldon	7	52	7.4	3.4
Devin Singletary	11	25	2.3	-2.8
Josh Allen	4	18	4.5	1.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Stefon Diggs	10	16	106	0	36%	5.8
Gabe Davis	5	9	58	0	20%	-7.6
Cole Beasley	6	6	53	0	13%	4.4
T.J. Yeldon	1	3	22	1	7%	2.3
Andre Roberts	1	2	16	0	4%	-2.6
Dawson Knox	1	3	15	0	7%	-0.6
Devin Singletary	1	1	8	0	2%	0.2
Isaiah McKenzie	4	4	7	1	9%	-0.8
Taiwan Jones	0	1	0	0	2%	-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Taron Johnson	5	2	0
Tremaine Edmunds	3	4	1
Jordan Poyer	6	1	0
Tyrel Dodson	4	2	0
Cameron Lewis	4	2	0
Quinton Jefferson	3	1	0
Micah Hyde	1	3	0
Mario Addison	1	2	1
Josh Norman	3	0	1
Trent Murphy	1	1	0

Tennessee Titans

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Ryan Tannehill	21/28	195	3	0	0	13.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Derrick Henry	19	57	3.0	2	-0.8
Ryan Tannehill	4	42	10.5	1	7.3
Jeremy McNichols	9	28	3.1	0	-2.8
Darrynton Evans	2	12	6.0	0	0.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
A.J. Brown	7	9	82	1	32%	7.0
Jonnu Smith	5	7	40	2	25%	3.4
Kalif Raymond	2	2	26	0	7%	3.5
Anthony Firkser	3	5	19	0	18%	-1.6
Cody Hollister	1	1	12	0	4%	1.6
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine	1	1	7	0	4%	0.8
Derrick Henry	1	2	6	0	7%	-0.6
Jeremy McNichols	1	1	3	0	4%	-0.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Malcolm Butler	7	0	0.0	2	2
Rashaan Evans	5	2	0.0	0	0
Jayon Brown	3	2	0.0	0	0
Kenny Vaccaro	4	0	0.0	0	0
David Long Jr.	2	2	0.0	0	0
Kareem Orr	4	0	0.0	0	0
Nick Dzubnar	2	1	0.0	0	0
Harold Landry	3	0	1.0	0	0
Amani Hooker	3	0	0.0	0	0
Chris Jackson	2	1	0.0	0	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: BUF -3
Closing total: 52
BUF moneyline: -168
TEN moneyline: +150

Bills closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 52; the game landed 58 — over by 6.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Nissan Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 73°F, wind 3 mph
Referee: Carl Cheffers
Rest: BUF 9 days · TEN 16 days
Coaches: Sean McDermott vs Mike Vrabel