2020 Week 5 · Sun, Oct 11, 2020 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium

Carolina PanthersWinner

Atlanta Falcons

ATL -2.5 upsetU 53.5 ✓DomeFalcons closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Carolina Panthers 23–16. Biggest swing: Q2 2:40, ATL +23% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 2:40CAR — ATL CAR ball · 3rd & 4ATL 57%

(2:40) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short left to 12-D.Moore for 57 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 2:40ATL +23% win prob(2:40) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short left to 12-D.Moore for 57 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 8:55CAR +21% win prob(8:55) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left intended for 83-R.Gage INTERCEPTED by 31-J.Burris at CAR -9. Touchback.
Q1 · 8:26ATL +11% win prob(8:26) (Shotgun) 21-T.Gurley left tackle for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 · 2:06ATL +10% win prob(2:06) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep right to 18-C.Ridley ran ob at CAR 32 for 26 yards.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Panthers	Falcons
Offensive plays	62	61
Total yards	438 (edge)	374
Yards per play	7.1 (edge)	6.1
Expected points added / play	0.25 (edge)	0.05
Success rate	55% (edge)	48%
Dropback rate	61%	62%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.39 (edge)	-0.10
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.02	0.31 (edge)
Third downs	6/12 (edge)	6/13
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	7	9 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	23 (edge)	21
Sacks taken	0 (edge)	2
Turnovers	0 (edge)	1

Panthers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.25 expected points added per play vs 0.05.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CAR

Teddy BridgewaterQB

27/36, 313 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

16.8 expected points added · +9.0% completion over expected

Passing · ATL

Matt RyanQB

21/37, 226 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-3.7 expected points added · -8.6% completion over expected

Rushing · ATL

Todd GurleyRB

14 att, 121 yds, 1 TD

5.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CAR

Mike DavisRB

16 att, 89 yds, 0 TD

1.5 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · ATL

Calvin RidleyWR

8/10 for 136 yds, 0 TD

29% of team targets · 11.4 expected points added

Receiving · CAR

Robbie ChosenWR

8/12 for 112 yds, 0 TD

35% of team targets · 2.6 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CAR	CAR 23	7	29	2:05	Punt
2	ATL	ATL 8	11	87	4:36	Touchdown
3	CAR	CAR 16	15	69	7:22	Turnover on downs
4	ATL	ATL 25	7	11	1:58	Punt
5	CAR	CAR 27	8	52	4:53	Turnover on downs
6	ATL	ATL 23	8	26	4:13	Punt
7	CAR	CAR 12	6	88	2:23	Touchdown
8	ATL	ATL 25	7	12	0:56	Punt
9	CAR	CAR 11	9	74	1:11	Touchdown
10	ATL	ATL 25	2	0	0:23	End of half
11	ATL	ATL 21	8	46	2:41	Turnover on downs
12	CAR	CAR 20	10	50	7:02	Punt
13	ATL	ATL 20	14	82	5:29	Turnover on downs
14	CAR	CAR 25	5	0	0:26	Punt
15	ATL	ATL 24	10	71	5:33	Interception
16	CAR	CAR 20	14	76	7:39	Turnover on downs
17	ATL	ATL 25	9	39	1:06	Turnover on downs
18	CAR	ATL 47	2	0	0:04	End of game

0 of 18 drives ended in points. Longest march: Panthers gained 88 scrimmage yards over 6 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Carolina Panthers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Teddy Bridgewater	27/36	313	2	0	0	16.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Mike Davis	16	89	5.6	1.5
Curtis Samuel	4	28	7.0	1.6
Teddy Bridgewater	3	3	1.0	-2.2
Robbie Chosen	1	3	3.0	-0.3
Alex Armah	1	2	2.0	-0.3
Trenton Cannon	2	-1	-0.5	-2.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Robbie Chosen	8	12	112	0	35%	2.6
D.J. Moore	4	5	93	1	15%	8.8
Mike Davis	9	10	60	1	29%	2.0
Curtis Samuel	5	5	36	0	15%	5.0
Pharoh Cooper	1	1	12	0	3%	0.6
Ian Thomas	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Shaq Thompson	3	7	0.0	0	0
Jeremy Chinn	5	4	0.0	0	1
Rasul Douglas	5	2	0.0	0	1
Troy Pride	5	1	0.0	0	0
Tahir Whitehead	2	2	0.0	0	0
Brian Burns	3	1	1.0	0	0
Juston Burris	0	3	0.0	1	1
Stephen Weatherly	2	1	0.0	0	0
Corn Elder	2	1	0.0	0	1
Tre Boston	1	2	0.0	0	0

Atlanta Falcons

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Matt Ryan	21/37	226	0	1	2	-3.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Todd Gurley	14	121	8.6	1	5.2
Brian Hill	6	39	6.5	0	2.7
Ito Smith	2	6	3.0	0	-1.2
Keith Smith	1	1	1.0	0	0.4
Matt Ryan	1	-1	-1.0	0	0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Calvin Ridley	8	10	136	29%	11.4
Todd Gurley	4	5	29	14%	0.5
Russell Gage	2	5	16	14%	-6.2
Brian Hill	2	2	15	6%	0.1
Olamide Zaccheaus	1	4	13	11%	-0.5
Hayden Hurst	2	6	8	17%	-4.1
Jaeden Graham	1	1	7	3%	0.2
Luke Stocker	1	1	2	3%	-0.5
Brandon Powell	0	1	0	3%	-0.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Foyesade Oluokun	12	2	0
Keanu Neal	5	2	0
Deion Jones	5	2	0
Kendall Sheffield	3	3	1
Isaiah Oliver	4	1	0
Steven Means	1	3	0
Ricardo Allen	2	2	0
Charles Harris	1	2	0
A.J. Terrell	3	0	0
Dante Fowler	1	1	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: ATL -2.5
Closing total: 53.5
CAR moneyline: +125
ATL moneyline: -139

Falcons closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 53.5; the game landed 39 — under by 14.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Roof / surface: closed · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Brad Allen
Rest: CAR 7 days · ATL 6 days
Coaches: Matt Rhule vs Dan Quinn

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.