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1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 7 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Falcons.
MarketModelmodel higher on Falconshigher on Panthers162 of 176 plays carry both curves
(2:40) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short left to 12-D.Moore for 57 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −22.6 for FalconsExpected points −5.84 for FalconsModel and market agree here.play 68
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 2:40ATL +23% win prob(2:40) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short left to 12-D.Moore for 57 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 8:55CAR +21% win prob(8:55) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left intended for 83-R.Gage INTERCEPTED by 31-J.Burris at CAR -9. Touchback.
1st · 8:26ATL +11% win prob(8:26) (Shotgun) 21-T.Gurley left tackle for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 2:06ATL +10% win prob(2:06) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep right to 18-C.Ridley ran ob at CAR 32 for 26 yards.
2nd · 0:41ATL +10% win prob(:41) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass deep right to 11-R.Anderson to ATL 7 for 22 yards (26-I.Oliver). ATL-20-K.Sheffield was injured during the play.
1st · 3:02ATL +7% win prob(3:02) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass deep right to 10-C.Samuel to ATL 27 for 17 yards (22-K.Neal).
3rd · 0:54
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
D.J. Moore's 57-yard touchdown catch with 2:40 left in the 2nd put Carolina Panthers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
3rd12:23Younghoe Koo·46-yd field goal46-yard field goalholder S.Hofrichter · snap J.Harris+320–10
4th14:52Younghoe Koo·31-yd field goal31-yard field goalholder S.Hofrichter · snap J.Harris+320–13
4th1:14Joey Slye·22-yd field goal22-yard field goalholder J.Charlton · snap J.Jansen+323–13
4th0:09Younghoe Koo·54-yd field goal54-yard field goalholder S.Hofrichter · snap J.Harris+323–16
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Pantherscategory by categoryFalcons
Panthers8–1Falcons
438Total yards374
7.1Yards per play6.1
55%Success rate48%
50%Third-down rate46%
1Red-zone touchdowns0
7Explosive plays9
23First downs21
0Sacks taken2
0Turnovers1
The read
Panthers ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.39 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.25Panthers: +0.25 expected points added per play
+0.05Falcons: +0.05 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.39Panthers: +0.39 expected points added per play
−0.10Falcons: −0.10 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.02Panthers: +0.02 expected points added per play
+0.31Falcons: +0.31 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Panthers ran 62 snaps at a 61% dropback rate against Falcons’s 61 at 62%. Red-zone trips: Panthers 4, Falcons 3.
NotePanthers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.25 expected points added per play vs 0.05.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 7 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -14 pts to 15 pts
right on their number · −0.3 vs their 13.4%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (−0.05× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Falcons10.5%
right on their number · −2.7 vs their 13.3%, and they swing ±5.7 week to week (−0.48× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteCAR's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 0.0%, 39.4 points below their season mean of 39.4% and 1.3 times their own 30.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Carolina Panthers
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 1 never used
64Chris ReedG · Every snap100%66 snaps
72Taylor MotonT · Every snap100%66 snaps
67John MillerG · Every snap100%66 snaps
5Teddy BridgewaterQB · Every snap100%66 snaps
61Matt ParadisC · Every snap100%66 snaps
76Russell OkungT · Full-time98%65 snaps
28Mike DavisRB · Full-time82%54 snaps
12D.J. MooreWR · Heavy rotation79%52 snaps
10Curtis SamuelWR · Heavy rotation74%49 snaps
11Robby AndersonWR · Heavy rotation73%48 snaps
80Ian ThomasTE · Heavy rotation64%42 snaps
82Chris ManhertzTE · Heavy rotation50%33 snaps
14Pharoh CooperWR · Situational23%15 snaps
86Colin ThompsonTE · Situational21%14 snaps
40Alex ArmahRB · Situational15%10 snaps
15Seth RobertsWR · Situational15%10 snaps
36Trenton CannonRB · Situational5%3 snaps
74Greg LittleT · Situational2%1 snap
Inactive · 5
Eli AppleCBStantley Thomas-OliverCBMichael SchofieldGP.J. WalkerQBDennis DaleyT
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Will GrierQB
Atlanta Falcons
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
76Kaleb McGaryT · Every snap100%65 snaps
70Jake MatthewsT · Every snap100%65 snaps
63Chris LindstromG · Every snap100%65 snaps
2Matt RyanQB · Every snap100%65 snaps
51Alex MackC · Every snap100%65 snaps
17Olamide ZaccheausWR · Full-time97%63 snaps
81Hayden HurstTE · Full-time83%54 snaps
77James CarpenterG · Full-time82%53 snaps
18Calvin RidleyWR · Heavy rotation74%48 snaps
83Russell GageWR · Heavy rotation62%40 snaps
21Todd GurleyRB · Heavy rotation55%36 snaps
88Luke StockerTE · Rotational35%23 snaps
23Brian HillHB · Rotational31%20 snaps
13Christian BlakeWR · Situational22%14 snaps
61Matt HennessyC · Situational18%12 snaps
40Keith SmithFB · Situational14%9 snaps
25Ito SmithRB · Situational14%9 snaps
15Brandon PowellWR · Situational8%5 snaps
87Jaeden GrahamTE · Situational5%3 snaps
73Matt GonoT · Situational2%1 snap
Inactive · 6
Jordan MillerDBDeadrin SenatNTQadree OllisonRBJaylinn HawkinsSAFJohn WetzelTJulio JonesWR
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Falcons attack right, the Panthers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Panthers←Falcons→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
M.Ryan pass−22% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(8:55) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left intended for 83-R.Gage INTERCEPTED by 31-J.Burris at CAR -9. Touchback.
Q4 8:55 · Falcons · 3rd & 4 at CAR 5 · gained nothing · -5.32 EP · −21.6% win probability
160 snaps placed · 16 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 176 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 176 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was ATL moving 92 yards from the ATL 8 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; ATL attacks right, CAR attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
176 of 176 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
176
EPA per play
+0.10
Success rate
45%
Yards
810
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Falcons1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR42+0.0774%
Panthers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR35+0.2974%
Falcons1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11+0.3345%
Panthers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8+0.0150%
Panthers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR6-0.230%
Falcons2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5-0.6540%
Panthers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR5+0.5540%
Panthers0 RB, 0 TE, 5 WR3——
Panthers0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR3——
Falcons2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Panthers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Panthers0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
Falcons2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
176 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
176 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter41 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Panthers 23 to the Falcons 48
Panthers0Falcons6
Panthers0Falcons7
Touchdown12 plays, from the Falcons 8 to the Panthers 35
Panthers3Falcons7
Field goal17 plays, from the Panthers 16 to the Falcons 20
The period ended4 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Falcons 33
2nd quarter51 plays
Punt4 plays
Panthers6Falcons7
Field goal8 plays, from the Panthers 27 to the Falcons 21
Punt9 plays, from the Falcons 23 to the Falcons 47
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.1 seconds
Panthers12Falcons7
Panthers13Falcons7
Touchdown6 plays, from the Panthers 12 to the Panthers 43
Punt8 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Falcons 39
Panthers19Falcons7
Panthers20Falcons7
Touchdown12 plays, from the Panthers 11 to the Falcons 3
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter34 plays
Panthers20Falcons10
Field goal9 plays, from the Falcons 21 to the Panthers 28
Punt12 plays, from the Panthers 20 to the Falcons 39
The period ended13 plays, from the Falcons 20 to the Panthers 15
4th quarter50 plays
Panthers20Falcons13
Field goal3 plays
Punt5 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerSevenPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.4 seconds
Intercepted10 plays, from the Falcons 24 to the Panthers 5
Panthers23Falcons13
Field goal20 plays, from the Panthers 20 to the Falcons 4
Panthers23Falcons16
Field goal9 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Panthers 36
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
