2020 Week 5 · Sun, Oct 11, 2020 · M&T Bank Stadium

Cincinnati Bengals

Baltimore RavensWinner

BAL -12.5 ✓U 49 ✓Ravens closed -12.5 and covered, winning by 24.

Baltimore Ravens 27–3 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 8:05, CIN +5% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 8:05CIN — BAL CIN ball · 4th & 3BAL 87%

(8:05) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass incomplete deep right to 83-T.Boyd.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 8:05CIN +5% win prob(8:05) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass incomplete deep right to 83-T.Boyd.
Q1 · 12:12BAL +5% win prob(12:12) (Shotgun) 13-D.Duvernay left end pushed ob at CIN 31 for 42 yards (30-J.Bates III). End around play.
Q1 · 10:05BAL +4% win prob(10:05) 9-J.Burrow pass deep right to 85-T.Higgins pushed ob at BAL 44 for 26 yards (24-M.Peters).
Q1 · 0:44BAL +3% win prob(:44) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 89-M.Andrews for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Bengals	Ravens
Offensive plays	65	61
Total yards	205	333 (edge)
Yards per play	3.2	5.5 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.50	-0.07 (edge)
Success rate	28%	39% (edge)
Dropback rate	60%	62%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.65	-0.13 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.26	0.04 (edge)
Third downs	3/16	8/16 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	1	5 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	12	17 (edge)
Sacks taken	7	1 (edge)
Turnovers	3	1 (edge)

Ravens won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.07 expected points added per play vs -0.50.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CIN

Joe BurrowQB

19/30, 183 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-14.0 expected points added · -0.8% completion over expected

Passing · BAL

Lamar JacksonQB

19/37, 180 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

-5.1 expected points added · -11.3% completion over expected

Rushing · CIN

Joe MixonRB

24 att, 59 yds, 0 TD

-6.9 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · BAL

Mark IngramRB

11 att, 57 yds, 0 TD

-1.8 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · BAL

Marquise BrownWR

6/10 for 77 yds, 1 TD

28% of team targets · 3.9 expected points added

Receiving · CIN

Tee HigginsWR

4/8 for 62 yds, 0 TD

28% of team targets · 4.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CIN	CIN 25	6	18	2:13	Punt
2	BAL	BAL 20	6	52	2:07	Turnover on downs
3	CIN	CIN 25	7	38	2:41	Turnover on downs
4	BAL	BAL 38	16	62	7:19	Touchdown
5	CIN	CIN 25	4	0	0:20	Interception
6	BAL	CIN 31	3	16	0:24	Touchdown
7	CIN	CIN 25	9	25	5:26	Fumble
8	BAL	50	4	9	1:38	Turnover on downs
9	CIN	CIN 46	5	6	1:46	Punt
10	BAL	BAL 21	6	14	2:23	Punt
11	CIN	CIN 25	4	4	1:43	Punt
12	BAL	BAL 30	5	43	0:47	Interception
13	CIN	CIN 24	4	4	0:22	Punt
14	BAL	BAL 23	7	34	0:51	Turnover on downs
15	BAL	BAL 25	5	8	1:39	Punt
16	CIN	CIN 25	5	11	2:31	Punt
17	BAL	BAL 20	8	48	2:29	Punt
18	CIN	CIN 20	4	4	2:13	Punt
19	BAL	BAL 35	7	44	3:32	Turnover on downs
20	CIN	CIN 25	11	10	4:33	Punt
21	BAL	BAL 20	4	3	1:40	Punt
22	CIN	CIN 23	5	30	3:02	Defensive touchdown
23	CIN	CIN 25	15	55	7:49	Turnover on downs
24	BAL	BAL 37	2	0	0:32	End of game

0 of 24 drives ended in points. Longest march: Ravens gained 62 scrimmage yards over 16 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Cincinnati Bengals

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Joe Burrow	19/30	183	0	1	7	-14.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Joe Mixon	24	59	2.5	-6.9
Joe Burrow	3	10	3.3	-1.3
Mike Thomas	1	1	1.0	-0.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Tee Higgins	4	8	62	28%	4.2
Tyler Boyd	4	6	42	21%	0.2
Joe Mixon	6	8	35	28%	-0.5
Drew Sample	2	2	22	7%	0.4
Auden Tate	1	1	12	3%	1.4
Mike Thomas	1	1	6	3%	-9.3
Giovani Bernard	1	2	4	7%	-1.2
A.J. Green	0	1	0	3%	-3.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Jessie Bates	6	1	2
Josh Bynes	1	6	0
Vonn Bell	4	2	0
Germaine Pratt	5	1	0
Akeem Davis-Gaither	3	1	1
Amani Bledsoe	1	2	0
Christian Covington	1	2	0
LeShaun Sims	2	0	1
William Jackson	2	0	0
Brandon Wilson	1	1	0

Baltimore Ravens

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Lamar Jackson	19/37	180	2	1	1	-5.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Mark Ingram	11	57	5.2	-1.8
Devin Duvernay	1	42	42.0	2.7
J.K. Dobbins	1	34	34.0	2.1
Gus Edwards	7	25	3.6	0.1
Lamar Jackson	2	3	1.5	-1.7
Marquise Brown	1	1	1.0	-0.6
Robert Griffin	1	-1	-1.0	0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Marquise Brown	6	10	77	1	28%	3.9
Mark Andrews	6	9	56	1	25%	3.5
J.K. Dobbins	3	3	21	0	8%	0.4
Devin Duvernay	2	2	17	0	6%	1.0
Patrick Ricard	1	2	7	0	6%	-0.4
Nick Boyle	1	2	2	0	6%	-2.2
Gus Edwards	0	3	0	0	8%	-1.5
Willie Snead	0	3	0	0	8%	-5.7
Miles Boykin	0	2	0	0	6%	-2.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Patrick Queen	6	3	1.0	0	0
Chuck Clark	5	4	1.0	0	0
Jaylon Ferguson	3	3	0.0	0	0
Marlon Humphrey	4	1	1.0	0	0
DeShon Elliott	2	3	1.0	0	0
Pernell McPhee	5	0	1.0	0	1
Marcus Peters	4	0	1.0	1	1
Tyus Bowser	2	2	0.0	0	0
Matt Judon	3	0	0.0	0	0
Malik Harrison	2	1	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: BAL -12.5
Closing total: 49
CIN moneyline: +547
BAL moneyline: -718

Ravens closed -12.5 and covered, winning by 24.

Total closed 49; the game landed 30 — under by 19.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: M&T Bank Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 69°F, wind 3 mph
Referee: Jerome Boger
Rest: CIN 7 days · BAL 7 days
Coaches: Zac Taylor vs John Harbaugh

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.