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Indianapolis Colts 23 at Cleveland Browns 32. Final.
Browns -1 ✓O 48.5 ✓
The verdict · 2020 Week 5
Cleveland Browns 32, Colts 23 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q1 7:53, 3rd and 6, on Marcus Johnson — 12.7 win-probability points to the Colts on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 7:53 · 3rd and 6
Marcus Johnson
Colts
(7:53) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass deep left to 83-M.Johnson to CLE 12 for 36 yards (23-A.Sendejo).
16.7 mph wind
Browns closed -1 and covered, winning by 9.
Cleveland Browns 32–23. Biggest swing: Q1 7:53, Colts +12.7% win probability on one snap. Played in 16.7 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
12.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Jarvis LandryBrownsQ1 2:58(2:58) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep left to 80-J.Landry to IND 14 for 30 yards (23-K.Moore).
10.5pts
Ronnie HarrisonBrownsQ3 12:26(12:26) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short left intended for 13-T.Hilton INTERCEPTED by 33-R.Harrison at IND 47. 33-R.Harrison for 47 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
12.0pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Colts owned this one and still lost it — +0.27 expected points per carry, against Browns at -0.11 expected points per carry.
Coltsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
Browns won this one — 10 of 17 on third down, against Colts at 4 of 11 on third down.
Brownsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Browns won this one — 6 chunk plays, against Colts at 3 chunk plays.
Brownsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Browns won this one — +0.16 expected points per dropback, against Colts at -0.20 expected points per dropback.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 1.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 7 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Browns.
MarketModelmodel higher on Brownshigher on Colts160 of 170 plays carry both curves
(7:53) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass deep left to 83-M.Johnson to CLE 12 for 36 yards (23-A.Sendejo).
Swing −12.7 for BrownsExpected points −3.88 for BrownsThe model had Browns 4 points higher than the market did.play 19
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 7:53CLE +13% win prob(7:53) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass deep left to 83-M.Johnson to CLE 12 for 36 yards (23-A.Sendejo).
3rd · 12:26IND +12% win prob(12:26) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short left intended for 13-T.Hilton INTERCEPTED by 33-R.Harrison at IND 47. 33-R.Harrison for 47 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 2:58CLE +10% win prob(2:58) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep left to 80-J.Landry to IND 14 for 30 yards (23-K.Moore).
2nd · 12:34CLE +10% win prob(12:34) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass deep middle to 16-A.Dulin to CLE 21 for 34 yards (23-A.Sendejo).
1st · 0:12CLE +9% win prob(:12) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 13-O.Beckham to IND 2 for 3 yards (54-A.Walker).
3rd · 12:15CLE +8% win prob2-C.Parkey kicks 66 yards from CLE 35 to IND -1. 34-I.Rodgers for 101 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 7:16
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Rashard Higgins's 15-yard touchdown catch with 6:03 left in the 2nd put Cleveland Browns ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Lead
1st10:27Cody Parkey·24-yd field goal24-yard field goalholder J.Gillan · snap C.Hughlett+30–3
3rd12:15Isaiah Rodgers·101-yd return TD101-yard return touchdownon the kickon the kick+717–27
3rd4:02Rodrigo Blankenship·37-yd field goal37-yard field goalholder R.Sanchez · snap L.Rhodes+320–27
4th14:44Browns·safetysafetytwo points, and the ball backtwo points, and the ball back+220–29
4th2:54Rodrigo Blankenship·25-yd field goal25-yard field goalholder R.Sanchez · snap L.Rhodes+323–29
4th0:25Cody Parkey·46-yd field goal46-yard field goalholder J.Gillan · snap C.Hughlett+323–32
12 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Coltscategory by categoryBrowns
Colts2–5Browns
309Total yards385
6.1Yards per play5.3
47%Success rate44%
36%Third-down rate59%
1Red-zone touchdowns2
3Explosive plays6
14First downs22
1Sacks taken1
2Turnovers2
The read
Browns ahead 5–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.04Colts: −0.04 expected points added per play
+0.04Browns: +0.04 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.20Colts: −0.20 expected points added per play
+0.16Browns: +0.16 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.27Colts: +0.27 expected points added per play
−0.11Browns: −0.11 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Colts ran 51 snaps at a 67% dropback rate against Browns’s 72 at 56%. Red-zone trips: Colts 5, Browns 5.
NoteBrowns won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.04 expected points added per play vs -0.04.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
IND's early-down pass rate turned over: 32.6% in week 4 against 64.1% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.6 of their own weekly swings across the two.
39 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.0 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -24 pts to 16 pts
inside their normal wobble · −4.9 vs their 12.4%, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (−0.79× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Browns14.7%
inside their normal wobble · +3.4 vs their 11.3%, and they swing ±5.3 week to week (+0.65× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNothing either side did tonight left its own normal range. The widest departure was IND's early-down pass rate, 64.1% against a season mean of 52.7% — and IND swings 12.0 points week to week, so that is a Sunday, not a plan.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Browns attack right, the Colts attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Colts←Browns→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
P.Rivers pass−12% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(12:26) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short left intended for 13-T.Hilton INTERCEPTED by 33-R.Harrison at IND 47. 33-R.Harrison for 47 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 12:26 · Colts · 3rd & 4 at IND 47 · gained nothing · -8.37 EP · −12.3% win probability
158 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 170 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 170 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was CLE moving 81 yards from the CLE 19 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CLE attacks right, IND attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
170 of 170 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
170
EPA per play
+0.06
Success rate
46%
Yards
693
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Browns1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR35+0.0160%
Colts1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR33+0.2279%
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR17+0.2459%
Colts1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR16-0.5338%
Browns2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR8-0.0150%
Browns1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR6-0.0533%
Browns2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR5-0.4140%
Colts1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Colts0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
Browns2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
170 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
170 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
Colts0Browns3
Field goal11 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Colts 6
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.0 seconds
Colts6Browns3
Colts7Browns3
Touchdown12 plays, from the Colts 28 to the Browns 4
The period ended13 plays, from the Browns 19 to the Colts 5
2nd quarter47 plays
Colts7Browns9
Colts7Browns10
Touchdown4 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
Colts10Browns10
Field goal9 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Browns 14
Colts10Browns16
Colts10Browns17
Touchdown11 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Colts 15
Punt5 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Colts 33
Colts10Browns20
Field goal15 plays, from the Browns 18 to the Colts 18
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter35 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.9 seconds
Colts10Browns26
Touchdown7 plays, from the Colts 26 to the Colts 47
Colts10Browns27
Colts16Browns27
Colts17Browns27
Touchdown2 plays
Intercepted6 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Browns 42
Colts20Browns27
Field goal11 plays, from the Browns 48 to the Browns 19
The period ended8 plays, from the Browns 22 to the Browns 48
4th quarter51 plays
Punt3 plays
Colts20Browns29
Punt5 plays, from the Browns 40 to the Browns 43
Intercepted5 plays, from the Colts 13 to the Colts 39
Intercepted7 plays, from the Colts 49 to the Colts 31
Colts23Browns29
Field goal13 plays, from the Colts 30 to the Browns 7
Colts23Browns32
Field goal13 plays, from the Browns 32 to the Colts 26
The period ended4 plays, from the Colts 22 to the Colts 23
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Browns -1
Closing total
48.5
Colts moneyline
-101
Browns moneyline
-110
Browns closed -1 and covered, winning by 9.
Total closed 48.5; the game landed 55 — over by 6.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
FirstEnergy Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Mild, 61°F at kickoff; windy at 17 mph out of the north-east; mainly clear.
Referee
Scott Novak
Rest
Colts 7 days · Browns 7 days
Coaches
Frank Reich vs Kevin Stefanski
NoteWind at 16.7 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.
IND +8% win prob
(7:16) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle intended for 80-J.Landry INTERCEPTED by 54-A.Walker [50-J.Houston] at IND 19. 54-A.Walker pushed ob at IND 30 for 11 yards (13-O.Beckham).
4th · 2:27CLE +8% win prob(2:27) (Shotgun) 30-D.Johnson left guard to IND 29 for 28 yards (32-J.Blackmon).
