2020 Week 5 · Sun, Oct 11, 2020 · FirstEnergy Stadium

Indianapolis Colts

Cleveland BrownsWinner

CLE -1 ✓O 48.5 ✓16 mph windBrowns closed -1 and covered, winning by 9.

Cleveland Browns 32–23. Biggest swing: Q1 7:53, CLE +13% win probability on one snap. Played in 16 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 7:53IND — CLE IND ball · 3rd & 6CLE 55%

(7:53) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass deep left to 83-M.Johnson to CLE 12 for 36 yards (23-A.Sendejo).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 7:53CLE +13% win prob(7:53) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass deep left to 83-M.Johnson to CLE 12 for 36 yards (23-A.Sendejo).
Q3 · 12:26IND +12% win prob(12:26) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short left intended for 13-T.Hilton INTERCEPTED by 33-R.Harrison at IND 47. 33-R.Harrison for 47 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 2:58CLE +10% win prob(2:58) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep left to 80-J.Landry to IND 14 for 30 yards (23-K.Moore).
Q2 · 12:34CLE +10% win prob(12:34) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass deep middle to 16-A.Dulin to CLE 21 for 34 yards (23-A.Sendejo).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Colts	Browns
Offensive plays	51	72
Total yards	309	385 (edge)
Yards per play	6.1 (edge)	5.3
Expected points added / play	-0.04	0.04 (edge)
Success rate	47% (edge)	44%
Dropback rate	67%	56%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.20	0.16 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.27 (edge)	-0.11
Third downs	4/11	10/17 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	3	6 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	14	22 (edge)
Sacks taken	1	1
Turnovers	2	2

Browns won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.04 expected points added per play vs -0.04.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CLE

Baker MayfieldQB

21/37, 247 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT

3.4 expected points added · -6.5% completion over expected

Passing · IND

Philip RiversQB

21/33, 243 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT

-6.9 expected points added · +2.3% completion over expected

Rushing · CLE

Kareem HuntRB

20 att, 72 yds, 0 TD

-1.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · IND

Jonathan TaylorRB

12 att, 57 yds, 1 TD

6.8 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CLE

Jarvis LandryWR

4/9 for 88 yds, 0 TD

24% of team targets · -1.5 expected points added

Receiving · IND

T.Y. HiltonWR

6/10 for 69 yds, 0 TD

31% of team targets · -5.9 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CLE	CLE 25	11	69	4:36	Turnover on downs
2	IND	IND 28	11	72	4:24	Touchdown
3	CLE	CLE 19	16	81	6:54	Touchdown
4	IND	IND 25	8	56	3:51	Turnover on downs
5	CLE	CLE 25	11	75	4:17	Touchdown
6	IND	IND 25	5	8	1:45	Punt
7	CLE	CLE 18	12	59	4:00	Turnover on downs
8	IND	IND 25	2	0	0:13	End of half
9	IND	IND 26	6	16	2:45	Defensive touchdown
10	IND	—	2	0	0:15	Defensive touchdown
11	CLE	CLE 25	6	13	2:47	Interception
12	IND	CLE 48	10	39	5:15	Turnover on downs
13	CLE	CLE 22	10	32	4:14	Punt
14	IND	IND 4	1	0	0:05	Turnover on downs
15	CLE	CLE 40	5	3	1:09	Punt
16	IND	IND 13	5	26	2:06	Interception
17	CLE	IND 49	6	13	4:19	Interception
18	IND	IND 30	12	73	4:15	Turnover on downs
19	CLE	CLE 32	9	40	2:29	Turnover on downs
20	IND	IND 22	3	19	0:21	End of game

0 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Browns gained 81 scrimmage yards over 16 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Indianapolis Colts

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Philip Rivers	21/33	243	0	2	1	-6.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Jonathan Taylor	12	57	4.8	1	6.8
Nyheim Miller-Hines	3	8	2.7	0	-1.1
Ashton Dulin	1	3	3.0	0	-0.4
Jordan Wilkins	1	1	1.0	0	-0.7
Philip Rivers	1	-1	-1.0	0	0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
T.Y. Hilton	6	10	69	31%	-5.9
Marcus Johnson	3	3	53	9%	4.7
Ashton Dulin	1	1	34	3%	2.9
Trey Burton	5	6	33	19%	1.4
Nyheim Miller-Hines	2	4	22	13%	-2.2
Jonathan Taylor	2	3	17	9%	-0.1
Zach Pascal	2	2	15	6%	0.4
Jack Doyle	0	2	0	6%	-1.9
Mo Alie-Cox	0	1	0	3%	-3.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Bobby Okereke	8	2	1	1
Rock Ya-Sin	6	2	0	1
Denico Autry	2	4	0	0
Grover Stewart	4	2	0	0
Zaire Franklin	3	3	0	0
DeForest Buckner	3	2	0	0
Julian Blackmon	3	1	0	0
Kenny Moore	2	2	0	0
Anthony Walker	2	2	1	2
Xavier Rhodes	1	2	0	0

Cleveland Browns

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Baker Mayfield	21/37	247	2	2	1	3.4
Odell Beckham	1/1	18	0	0	0	0.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Kareem Hunt	20	72	3.6	-1.3
D'Ernest Johnson	8	32	4.0	-0.6
Baker Mayfield	2	17	8.5	1.2
Andy Janovich	2	4	2.0	0.3
Odell Beckham	1	-1	-1.0	-1.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Jarvis Landry	4	9	88	0	24%	-1.5
Odell Beckham	5	9	58	0	24%	1.2
Austin Hooper	5	10	57	0	26%	-1.1
Rashard Higgins	3	3	31	1	8%	3.9
Kareem Hunt	3	4	21	1	11%	1.7
David Njoku	1	1	6	0	3%	1.1
D'Ernest Johnson	1	1	4	0	3%	0.1
Harrison Bryant	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
B.J. Goodson	3	6	0.0	0	0
Sione Takitaki	5	2	0.0	0	0
Kevin Johnson	3	3	0.0	0	0
Denzel Ward	4	1	0.0	0	1
Myles Garrett	3	1	1.0	0	0
Malcolm Smith	4	0	0.0	0	1
Andrew Sendejo	4	0	0.0	0	0
Ronnie Harrison	1	1	0.0	1	2
Sheldon Richardson	1	1	0.0	0	0
Odell Beckham	1	0	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: CLE -1
Closing total: 48.5
IND moneyline: -101
CLE moneyline: -110

Browns closed -1 and covered, winning by 9.

Total closed 48.5; the game landed 55 — over by 6.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: FirstEnergy Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 64°F, wind 16 mph
Referee: Scott Novak
Rest: IND 7 days · CLE 7 days
Coaches: Frank Reich vs Kevin Stefanski

Wind at 16 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.