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Jacksonville Jaguars 14 at Houston Texans 30. Final.
Texans -6.5 ✓U 55 ✓
The verdict · 2020 Week 5
Houston Texans 30, Jaguars 14 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 4:41, 1st and 10, on Darren Fells — 14.4 win-probability points to the Texans on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 4:41 · 1st and 10
Darren Fells
Texans
(4:41) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 87-D.Fells for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Dome
Texans closed -6.5 and covered, winning by 16.
Houston Texans 30–14. Biggest swing: Q2 4:41, Texans +14.4% win probability on one snap.
14.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Collin JohnsonJaguarsQ2 1:43(1:43) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew II pass deep left to 19-C.Johnson to HOU 6 for 19 yards (20-Ju.Reid).
11.0pts
Jarrod WilsonJaguarsQ3 7:11(7:11) 4-D.Watson pass deep left intended for 15-W.Fuller INTERCEPTED by 26-J.Wilson (35-S.Jones IV) at JAX 25. 26-J.Wilson to HOU 27 for 48 yards (4-D.Watson).
12.4pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Texans won this one — 11 chunk plays, against Jaguars at 5 chunk plays.
Texansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Texans won this one — +0.37 expected points per dropback, against Jaguars at -0.02 expected points per dropback.
Texansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Texans won this one — +0.20 expected points per snap, against Jaguars at -0.05 expected points per snap.
Texansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Texans won this one — 50% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Jaguars at 41% of snaps stayed on schedule.
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 8.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 19 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jaguars.
MarketModelmodel higher on Texanshigher on Jaguars165 of 173 plays carry both curves
(4:41) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 87-D.Fells for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +14.4 for TexansExpected points +3.85 for TexansThe model had Jaguars 10 points higher than the market did.play 59
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 4:41HOU +14% win prob(4:41) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 87-D.Fells for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 7:11JAX +12% win prob(7:11) 4-D.Watson pass deep left intended for 15-W.Fuller INTERCEPTED by 26-J.Wilson (35-S.Jones IV) at JAX 25. 26-J.Wilson to HOU 27 for 48 yards (4-D.Watson).
2nd · 1:43HOU +11% win prob(1:43) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew II pass deep left to 19-C.Johnson to HOU 6 for 19 yards (20-Ju.Reid).
2nd · 6:39HOU +9% win prob(6:39) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew II pass short right to 84-K.Cole Sr. for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 0:37JAX +8% win prob(:37) 3-S.Hauschka 24 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
3rd · 3:21JAX +8% win prob(3:21) Direct snap to 30-J.Robinson. 30-J.Robinson sacked at HOU 14 for -6 yards. FUMBLES, touched at HOU 12, RECOVERED by HOU-99-J.Watt at HOU 10.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Darren Fells's 44-yard touchdown catch with 4:41 left in the 2nd put Houston Texans ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Lead
2nd14:11Ka'imi Fairbairn·36-yd field goal36-yard field goalholder B.Anger · snap J.Weeks+30–3
Texans ahead 6–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.37 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.05Jaguars: −0.05 expected points added per play
+0.20Texans: +0.20 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.02Jaguars: −0.02 expected points added per play
+0.37Texans: +0.37 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.16Jaguars: −0.16 expected points added per play
−0.11Texans: −0.11 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Jaguars ran 73 snaps at a 77% dropback rate against Texans’s 58 at 66%. Red-zone trips: Jaguars 4, Texans 5.
NoteTexans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.20 expected points added per play vs -0.05.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
HOU's pass rate over expected turned over: −8.5 pts in week 4 against +11.5 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 3.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
58 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.3 points.
HOU's sack or hit rate turned over: 30.8% in week 4 against 10.7% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 3.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
56 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.8 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -14 pts to 22 pts
right on their number · −0.1 vs their 13.2%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (−0.01× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Texans10.7%
right on their number · −3.2 vs their 13.9%, and they swing ±6.8 week to week (−0.47× that swing) · 56 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteJAX's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 5.9 pts, 5.6 points above their season mean of 0.3 pts and 1.1 times their own 5.3-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Jacksonville Jaguars
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 3 never used
60A.J. CannG · Every snap100%75 snaps
68Andrew NorwellG · Every snap100%75 snaps
75Jawaan TaylorT · Every snap100%75 snaps
74Cam RobinsonT · Every snap100%75 snaps
15Gardner MinshewQB · Every snap100%75 snaps
65Brandon LinderC · Every snap100%75 snaps
84Keelan ColeWR · Full-time80%60 snaps
10Laviska Shenault Jr.WR · Heavy rotation69%52 snaps
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Texans attack right, the Jaguars attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Jaguars←Texans→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Watson pass−17% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(7:11) 4-D.Watson pass deep left intended for 15-W.Fuller INTERCEPTED by 26-J.Wilson (35-S.Jones IV) at JAX 25. 26-J.Wilson to HOU 27 for 48 yards (4-D.Watson).
Q3 7:11 · Texans · 1st & 10 at HOU 38 · gained nothing · -6.61 EP · −17.1% win probability
163 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 173 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 173 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was HOU moving 90 yards from the HOU 10 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; HOU attacks right, JAX attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
173 of 173 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
173
EPA per play
+0.02
Success rate
42%
Yards
850
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Jaguars1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR59+0.0078%
Texans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR34-0.0071%
Texans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR15+0.6747%
Jaguars2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR7+0.3057%
Jaguars1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Texans1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Texans2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Texans2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR2——
Jaguars2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Jaguars0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
Jaguars0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Texans1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
Texans2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
173 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
173 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter35 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Jaguars 42
Punt5 plays, from the Texans 16 to the Jaguars 46
Punt8 plays, from the Jaguars 13 to the Jaguars 48
The period ended15 plays, from the Texans 9 to the Jaguars 20
2nd quarter49 plays
Jaguars0Texans3
Field goal3 plays, from the Jaguars 22 to the Jaguars 18
Jaguars6Texans3
Jaguars7Texans3
Touchdown16 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Texans 13
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFive linemen, two linebackers and four backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
Jaguars7Texans9
Jaguars7Texans10
Touchdown6 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Jaguars 44
No good15 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Texans 3
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back and four receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.8 seconds
Intercepted1 play
No good7 plays, from the Texans 36 to the Texans 21
3rd quarter35 plays
Jaguars7Texans13
Field goal10 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Jaguars 15
Punt5 plays, from the Jaguars 40 to the Jaguars 46
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.7 seconds
Intercepted6 plays, from the Texans 6 to the Texans 38
FormationWildcatOffense on the fieldTwo backs, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, four linebackers and three backsIn the boxNine defendersRushing the passerSix
Fumble lost6 plays, from the Texans 27 to the Texans 8
The period ended8 plays, from the Texans 10 to the Jaguars 39
4th quarter54 plays
Jaguars7Texans19
Jaguars7Texans20
Touchdown3 plays, from the Jaguars 30 to the Jaguars 19
Jaguars13Texans20
Jaguars14Texans20
Touchdown12 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Texans 4
Jaguars14Texans23
Field goal7 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Jaguars 28
Fumble lost8 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Jaguars 47
Jaguars14Texans29
Jaguars14Texans30
Touchdown5 plays, from the Jaguars 34 to the Jaguars 28
Turnover on downs13 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Texans 32
The period ended6 plays, from the Texans 32 to the Jaguars 28
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Texans -6.5
Closing total
55
Jaguars moneyline
+243
Texans moneyline
-281
Texans closed -6.5 and covered, winning by 16.
Total closed 55; the game landed 44 — under by 11.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
NRG Stadium
Roof / surface
closed · grass
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Bill Vinovich
Rest
Jaguars 7 days · Texans 7 days
Coaches
Doug Marrone vs Romeo Crennel
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
4th · 10:23
HOU +8% win prob
(10:23) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew II pass short right to 19-C.Johnson for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 0:34JAX +8% win prob(:34) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep middle intended for 15-W.Fuller INTERCEPTED by 35-S.Jones IV [94-D.Smoot] at HOU 36. 35-S.Jones IV to HOU 36 for no gain (15-W.Fuller).
