2020 Week 5 · Sun, Oct 11, 2020 · NRG Stadium

Jacksonville Jaguars

Houston TexansWinner

HOU -6.5 ✓U 55 ✓DomeTexans closed -6.5 and covered, winning by 16.

Houston Texans 30–14. Biggest swing: Q2 4:41, HOU +14% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 4:41JAX — HOU HOU ball · 1st & 10HOU 63%

(4:41) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 87-D.Fells for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 4:41HOU +14% win prob(4:41) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 87-D.Fells for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 · 7:11JAX +12% win prob(7:11) 4-D.Watson pass deep left intended for 15-W.Fuller INTERCEPTED by 26-J.Wilson (35-S.Jones IV) at JAX 25. 26-J.Wilson to HOU 27 for 48 yards (4-D.Watson).
Q2 · 1:43HOU +11% win prob(1:43) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew II pass deep left to 19-C.Johnson to HOU 6 for 19 yards (20-Ju.Reid).
Q2 · 6:39HOU +9% win prob(6:39) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew II pass short right to 84-K.Cole Sr. for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Jaguars	Texans
Offensive plays	73	58
Total yards	364	486 (edge)
Yards per play	5.0	8.4 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.05	0.20 (edge)
Success rate	41%	50% (edge)
Dropback rate	77%	66%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.02	0.37 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.16	-0.11 (edge)
Third downs	8/16	5/10
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5	11 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	21	23 (edge)
Sacks taken	4	1 (edge)
Turnovers	2	2

Texans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.20 expected points added per play vs -0.05.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · HOU

Deshaun WatsonQB

25/35, 359 yds, 3 TD, 2 INT

11.2 expected points added · +4.7% completion over expected

Passing · JAX

Gardner MinshewQB

31/49, 301 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

0.5 expected points added · +2.1% completion over expected

Rushing · HOU

David JohnsonRB

17 att, 96 yds, 0 TD

-1.6 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · JAX

James RobinsonRB

13 att, 48 yds, 0 TD

-1.6 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · HOU

Brandin CooksWR

8/12 for 161 yds, 1 TD

34% of team targets · 11.7 expected points added

Receiving · JAX

Laviska Shenault Jr.WR

7/8 for 79 yds, 0 TD

18% of team targets · 3.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	JAX	JAX 25	6	16	2:09	Punt
2	HOU	HOU 16	5	38	2:29	Punt
3	JAX	JAX 13	7	30	3:40	Punt
4	HOU	HOU 9	17	73	7:35	Turnover on downs
5	JAX	JAX 25	14	75	7:34	Touchdown
6	HOU	HOU 25	6	75	2:01	Touchdown
7	JAX	JAX 25	13	69	3:58	Turnover on downs
8	HOU	HOU 20	1	0	0:08	Interception
9	JAX	HOU 36	4	15	0:26	Turnover on downs
10	HOU	HOU 25	10	45	3:25	Turnover on downs
11	JAX	JAX 40	5	6	2:22	Punt
12	HOU	HOU 6	5	37	2:21	Interception
13	JAX	HOU 27	6	15	3:36	Fumble
14	HOU	HOU 10	9	95	4:00	Touchdown
15	JAX	JAX 25	12	75	3:58	Touchdown
16	HOU	HOU 25	7	47	2:49	Turnover on downs
17	JAX	JAX 25	7	20	1:15	Fumble
18	HOU	JAX 34	5	34	1:35	Touchdown
19	JAX	JAX 25	13	43	3:01	Turnover on downs
20	HOU	HOU 32	3	42	1:38	End of game

0 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Texans gained 95 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Jacksonville Jaguars

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Gardner Minshew	31/49	301	2	0	3	0.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
James Robinson	13	48	3.7	-1.6
Gardner Minshew	4	18	4.5	2.1
Chris Thompson	2	7	3.5	0.0
Keelan Cole	1	2	2.0	-0.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Laviska Shenault Jr.	7	8	79	0	18%	3.5
Chris Conley	2	2	58	0	5%	4.9
Chris Thompson	3	3	35	0	7%	0.3
Collin Johnson	3	4	30	1	9%	6.0
Keelan Cole	2	6	25	1	14%	-2.0
James Robinson	5	7	22	0	16%	-1.2
James O'Shaughnessy	3	3	20	0	7%	0.9
D.J. Chark	3	4	16	0	9%	-0.3
Tyler Eifert	3	7	16	0	16%	-1.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Dakota Allen	5	2	0	0
Daniel Thomas	7	0	0	0
Tre Herndon	6	0	0	0
Chris Claybrooks	5	0	0	2
Jarrod Wilson	2	2	1	1
Joe Schobert	3	1	0	0
Sidney Jones	3	0	1	4
Abry Jones	2	0	0	0
Adam Gotsis	1	1	0	0
Josh Jones	2	0	0	0

Houston Texans

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Deshaun Watson	25/35	359	3	2	1	11.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
David Johnson	17	96	5.6	-1.6
Deshaun Watson	2	25	12.5	2.7
Duke Johnson	3	8	2.7	-0.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Brandin Cooks	8	12	161	1	34%	11.7
Will Fuller	4	8	58	1	23%	-6.3
Darren Fells	2	2	57	1	6%	5.3
Randall Cobb	6	6	47	0	17%	2.9
Kenny Stills	1	1	14	0	3%	1.8
Duke Johnson	1	1	11	0	3%	0.7
David Johnson	2	4	7	0	11%	-2.9
Pharaoh Brown	1	1	4	0	3%	-1.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Tyrell Adams	5	6	0.0	0
Zach Cunningham	6	3	1.0	0
Justin Reid	5	1	0.0	0
Bradley Roby	4	1	0.0	0
Eric Murray	2	3	0.0	0
Lonnie Johnson	2	2	0.0	0
Michael Thomas	2	2	0.0	0
Brennan Scarlett	1	2	0.0	0
Vernon Hargreaves	2	1	0.0	2
Jake Martin	2	1	1.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: HOU -6.5
Closing total: 55
JAX moneyline: +243
HOU moneyline: -281

Texans closed -6.5 and covered, winning by 16.

Total closed 55; the game landed 44 — under by 11.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: NRG Stadium
Roof / surface: closed · grass
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Bill Vinovich
Rest: JAX 7 days · HOU 7 days
Coaches: Doug Marrone vs Romeo Crennel

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.