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2020 Week 5 · Sun, Oct 11, 2020 · NRG Stadium
14
30
Houston Texans 30–14. Biggest swing: Q2 4:41, HOU +14% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
(4:41) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 87-D.Fells for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Down-to-down truth
| Metric | Jaguars | Texans |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 73 | 58 |
| Total yards | 364 | 486 (edge) |
| Yards per play | 5.0 | 8.4 (edge) |
| Expected points added / play | -0.05 | 0.20 (edge) |
| Success rate | 41% | 50% (edge) |
| Dropback rate | 77% | 66% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.02 | 0.37 (edge) |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.16 | -0.11 (edge) |
| Third downs | 8/16 | 5/10 |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 5 | 11 (edge) |
| First downs gained on snaps | 21 | 23 (edge) |
| Sacks taken | 4 | 1 (edge) |
| Turnovers | 2 | 2 |
Texans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.20 expected points added per play vs -0.05.
Who moved the needle
Passing · HOU
25/35, 359 yds, 3 TD, 2 INT
11.2 expected points added · +4.7% completion over expected
Passing · JAX
31/49, 301 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
0.5 expected points added · +2.1% completion over expected
Receiving · HOU
8/12 for 161 yds, 1 TD
34% of team targets · 11.7 expected points added
Receiving · JAX
7/8 for 79 yds, 0 TD
18% of team targets · 3.5 expected points added
Possession by possession
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JAX | JAX 25 | 6 | 16 | 2:09 | Punt | |
| 2 | HOU | HOU 16 | 5 | 38 | 2:29 | Punt | |
| 3 | JAX | JAX 13 | 7 | 30 | 3:40 | Punt | |
| 4 | HOU | HOU 9 | 17 | 73 | 7:35 | Turnover on downs | |
| 5 | JAX | JAX 25 | 14 | 75 | 7:34 | Touchdown | |
| 6 | HOU | HOU 25 | 6 | 75 | 2:01 | Touchdown | |
| 7 | JAX | JAX 25 | 13 | 69 | 3:58 | Turnover on downs | |
| 8 | HOU | HOU 20 | 1 | 0 | 0:08 | Interception | |
| 9 | JAX | HOU 36 | 4 | 15 | 0:26 | Turnover on downs | |
| 10 | HOU | HOU 25 | 10 | 45 | 3:25 | Turnover on downs | |
| 11 | JAX | JAX 40 | 5 | 6 | 2:22 | Punt | |
| 12 | HOU | HOU 6 | 5 | 37 | 2:21 | Interception | |
| 13 | JAX | HOU 27 | 6 | 15 | 3:36 | Fumble | |
| 14 | HOU | HOU 10 | 9 | 95 | 4:00 | Touchdown | |
| 15 | JAX | JAX 25 | 12 | 75 | 3:58 | Touchdown | |
| 16 | HOU | HOU 25 | 7 | 47 | 2:49 | Turnover on downs | |
| 17 | JAX | JAX 25 | 7 | 20 | 1:15 | Fumble | |
| 18 | HOU | JAX 34 | 5 | 34 | 1:35 | Touchdown | |
| 19 | JAX | JAX 25 | 13 | 43 | 3:01 | Turnover on downs | |
| 20 | HOU | HOU 32 | 3 | 42 | 1:38 | End of game |
0 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Texans gained 95 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a touchdown.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gardner Minshew | 31/49 | 301 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Robinson | 13 | 48 | 3.7 | 0 | -1.6 |
| Gardner Minshew | 4 | 18 | 4.5 | 0 | 2.1 |
| Chris Thompson | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 | 0.0 |
| Keelan Cole | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | -0.5 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laviska Shenault Jr. | 7 | 8 | 79 | 0 | 18% | 3.5 |
| Chris Conley | 2 | 2 | 58 | 0 | 5% | 4.9 |
| Chris Thompson | 3 | 3 | 35 | 0 | 7% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dakota Allen | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Daniel Thomas | 7 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tre Herndon | 6 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Claybrooks |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deshaun Watson | 25/35 | 359 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11.2 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Johnson | 17 | 96 | 5.6 | 0 |
Closing number vs result
Texans closed -6.5 and covered, winning by 16.
Total closed 55; the game landed 44 — under by 11.0.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 0.3 |
| Collin Johnson | 3 | 4 | 30 | 1 | 9% | 6.0 |
| Keelan Cole | 2 | 6 | 25 | 1 | 14% | -2.0 |
| James Robinson | 5 | 7 | 22 | 0 | 16% | -1.2 |
| James O'Shaughnessy | 3 | 3 | 20 | 0 | 7% | 0.9 |
| D.J. Chark | 3 | 4 | 16 | 0 | 9% | -0.3 |
| Tyler Eifert | 3 | 7 | 16 | 0 | 16% | -1.2 |
| 5 |
| 0 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 2 |
| Jarrod Wilson | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Joe Schobert | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sidney Jones | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 4 |
| Abry Jones | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Adam Gotsis | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Jones | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| -1.6 |
| Deshaun Watson | 2 | 25 | 12.5 | 0 | 2.7 |
| Duke Johnson | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 | -0.7 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandin Cooks | 8 | 12 | 161 | 1 | 34% | 11.7 |
| Will Fuller | 4 | 8 | 58 | 1 | 23% | -6.3 |
| Darren Fells | 2 | 2 | 57 | 1 | 6% | 5.3 |
| Randall Cobb | 6 | 6 | 47 | 0 | 17% | 2.9 |
| Kenny Stills | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 | 3% | 1.8 |
| Duke Johnson | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 3% | 0.7 |
| David Johnson | 2 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 11% | -2.9 |
| Pharaoh Brown | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 3% | -1.1 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrell Adams | 5 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Zach Cunningham | 6 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Justin Reid | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bradley Roby | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eric Murray | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lonnie Johnson | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Michael Thomas | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brennan Scarlett | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Vernon Hargreaves | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Jake Martin | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
