2020 Week 5 · Mon, Oct 12, 2020 · Mercedes-Benz Superdome

Los Angeles Chargers

New Orleans SaintsWinner

NO -7 no coverO 49.5 ✓DomeSaints closed -7, won by 3 — but didn't cover.

New Orleans Saints 30–27 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 3:50, NO +40% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 3:50LAC — NO LAC ball · 3rd & 10NO 57%

(3:50) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep right to 81-M.Williams for 64 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 37, YAC 27

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 3:50NO +40% win prob(3:50) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep right to 81-M.Williams for 64 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 37, YAC 27
OT · 5:11LAC +38% win prob(5:11) 3-W.Lutz 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.
Q4 · 0:05LAC +34% win prob(:05) 4-M.Badgley 50 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-45-C.Mazza, Holder-1-T.Long.
Q4 · 11:29NO +29% win prob(11:29) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass deep left to 87-J.Cook for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 31, YAC 10

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Chargers	Saints
Offensive plays	68	75
Total yards	351	408 (edge)
Yards per play	5.2	5.4 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.02 (edge)	-0.04
Success rate	40%	45% (edge)
Dropback rate	56%	67%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.14 (edge)	-0.01
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.15	-0.09 (edge)
Third downs	8/17 (edge)	5/15
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5 (edge)	4
First downs gained on snaps	17	23 (edge)
Sacks taken	3	2 (edge)
Turnovers	0 (edge)	1

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · NO

Drew BreesQB

33/47, 325 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-0.2 expected points added · -0.1% completion over expected

Passing · LAC

Justin HerbertQB

20/34, 264 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT

6.5 expected points added · +1.1% completion over expected

Rushing · LAC

Justin JacksonRB

15 att, 71 yds, 0 TD

0.5 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NO

Alvin KamaraRB

11 att, 45 yds, 0 TD

-1.9 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · NO

Emmanuel SandersWR

12/14 for 122 yds, 0 TD

30% of team targets · 7.2 expected points added

Receiving · LAC

Mike WilliamsWR

5/8 for 109 yds, 2 TD

25% of team targets · 6.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	LAC	LAC 15	5	7	1:37	Punt
2	NO	NO 47	6	12	2:24	Punt
3	LAC	LAC 20	10	80	4:33	Touchdown
4	NO	NO 22	8	15	2:14	Punt
5	LAC	LAC 17	4	-11	1:31	Punt
6	NO	LAC 48	5	18	2:41	Turnover on downs
7	LAC	LAC 25	9	60	3:59	Touchdown
8	NO	NO 25	5	9	1:40	Punt
9	LAC	LAC 20	4	16	2:34	Punt
10	NO	NO 16	3	6	0:59	Interception
11	LAC	NO 1	4	1	1:23	Touchdown
12	NO	NO 25	7	16	1:55	Punt
13	LAC	LAC 18	4	-2	0:31	Punt
14	NO	NO 49	9	51	1:45	Touchdown
15	LAC	LAC 17	2	0	0:14	End of half
16	NO	NO 25	8	16	3:46	Punt
17	LAC	LAC 11	7	12	2:57	Punt
18	NO	NO 25	7	40	3:25	Turnover on downs
19	LAC	LAC 25	10	28	3:29	Punt
20	NO	NO 11	11	99	5:02	Touchdown
21	LAC	LAC 17	11	25	4:09	Punt
22	NO	NO 23	4	5	1:30	Punt
23	LAC	LAC 22	5	78	2:02	Touchdown
24	NO	NO 27	10	73	2:48	Touchdown
25	LAC	LAC 20	8	48	0:52	Turnover on downs
26	NO	NO 34	10	48	4:52	Turnover on downs
27	LAC	LAC 25	5	9	0:51	Turnover on downs

0 of 27 drives ended in points. Longest march: Saints gained 99 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Los Angeles Chargers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Justin Herbert	20/34	264	4	0	3	6.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Justin Jackson	15	71	4.7	0.5
Joshua Kelley	11	29	2.6	-2.9
Justin Herbert	4	8	2.0	-2.1
Tyron Johnson	1	7	7.0	0.3
Jalen Guyton	1	-4	-4.0	-1.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Mike Williams	5	8	109	2	25%	6.2
Jalen Guyton	1	3	49	0	9%	2.1
Keenan Allen	2	2	29	1	6%	4.6
Justin Jackson	5	6	23	0	19%	-2.3
Hunter Henry	4	8	23	1	25%	1.6
Virgil Green	1	1	14	0	3%	1.1
Joshua Kelley	1	1	9	0	3%	1.3
K.J. Hill	1	2	8	0	6%	-0.9
Donald Parham	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Kyzir White	10	5	0.0	0	0
Rayshawn Jenkins	7	2	0.0	0	0
Brandon Facyson	4	3	0.0	0	0
Michael Davis	6	1	0.0	0	0
Kenneth Murray	2	3	0.0	0	1
Desmond King	3	2	0.0	0	0
Isaac Rochell	3	2	0.0	0	0
Uchenna Nwosu	3	1	1.0	0	0
Nasir Adderley	3	1	0.0	1	1
Emeke Egbule	2	1	0.0	0	0

New Orleans Saints

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Drew Brees	33/47	325	1	1	2	-0.2
Taysom Hill	0/1	0	0	0	0	-0.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Alvin Kamara	11	45	4.1	0	-1.9
Latavius Murray	8	34	4.3	0	-1.1
Taysom Hill	3	13	4.3	1	0.5
Michael Burton	2	2	1.0	0	-1.8
Drew Brees	1	1	1.0	1	2.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Emmanuel Sanders	12	14	122	0	30%	7.2
Alvin Kamara	8	10	74	0	21%	-1.1
Jared Cook	2	3	52	1	6%	6.3
Marquez Callaway	4	6	34	0	13%	-0.6
Latavius Murray	2	2	23	0	4%	1.6
Bennie Fowler	2	6	11	0	13%	-8.0
Tre'Quan Smith	2	3	8	0	6%	-0.6
Josh Hill	1	1	1	0	2%	-0.5
Taysom Hill	0	2	0	0	4%	-1.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Demario Davis	2	8	0.0	0
Cameron Jordan	4	5	0.5	0
Marshon Lattimore	4	2	0.0	0
Alex Anzalone	2	4	0.0	0
Sheldon Rankins	3	2	1.0	0
Malcolm Jenkins	3	2	0.0	1
Patrick Robinson	2	2	0.0	0
Malcom Brown	1	3	0.0	0
David Onyemata	1	2	0.0	0
Shy Tuttle	2	1	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: NO -7
Closing total: 49.5
LAC moneyline: +288
NO moneyline: -339

Saints closed -7, won by 3 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 49.5; the game landed 57 — over by 7.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Mercedes-Benz Superdome
Roof / surface: dome · astroturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Clay Martin
Rest: LAC 8 days · NO 8 days
Coaches: Anthony Lynn vs Sean Payton