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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:48 AM ET · 16 to play
Los Angeles Chargers 27 at New Orleans Saints 30. Final.
Saints -7 no coverO 49.5 ✓
The verdict · 2020 Week 5
New Orleans Saints 30, Chargers 27 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 3:50, 3rd and 10, on Mike Williams — 39.8 win-probability points to the Chargers on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 3:50 · 3rd and 10
Mike Williams
Chargers
(3:50) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep right to 81-M.Williams for 64 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 37, YAC 27
Dome
Saints closed -7, won by 3 — but didn't cover.
New Orleans Saints 30–27 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 3:50, Chargers +39.8% win probability on one snap.
39.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Michael BadgleySaintsQ4 0:05(:05) 4-M.Badgley 50 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-45-C.Mazza, Holder-1-T.Long.
33.6pts
Wil LutzChargersOT 5:11(5:11) 3-W.Lutz 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.
38.4pts
What separated them
Third down
Chargers owned this one and still lost it — 8 of 17 on third down, against Saints at 5 of 15 on third down.
Chargersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Red zone
Chargers owned this one and still lost it — 3 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Saints at 2 touchdowns on 4 trips.
Chargersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Chargers owned this one and still lost it — no giveaways, against Saints at 1 giveaway.
Chargersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Saints won this one — 45% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Chargers at 40% of snaps stayed on schedule.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 11.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 27 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Chargers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Saintshigher on Chargers187 of 201 plays carry both curves
(3:50) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep right to 81-M.Williams for 64 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 37, YAC 27
Swing −39.8 for SaintsExpected points −6.20 for SaintsModel and market agree here.play 159
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 3:50NO +40% win prob(3:50) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep right to 81-M.Williams for 64 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 37, YAC 27
Overtime · 5:11LAC +38% win prob(5:11) 3-W.Lutz 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.
4th · 0:05LAC +34% win prob(:05) 4-M.Badgley 50 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-45-C.Mazza, Holder-1-T.Long.
4th · 11:29NO +29% win prob(11:29) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass deep left to 87-J.Cook for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 31, YAC 10
Overtime · 4:23LAC +28% win prob(4:23) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 81-M.Williams to LAC 49 for 5 yards (23-M.Lattimore). LAC-81-M.Williams was injured during the play. His return is Probable.
2nd · 6:04LAC +21% win prob(6:04) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass deep right intended for 16-B.Fowler INTERCEPTED by 24-N.Adderley at NO 40. 24-N.Adderley to NO 1 for 39 yards (75-A.Peat; 87-J.Cook).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Wil Lutz's 36-yard field goal with 5:11 left in overtime put New Orleans Saints ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st6:33Keenan Allen·17-yd TD catch17-yard touchdown catchfrom Justin Herbertfrom Justin Herbert · kick no good, wide right+66–0
1st0:01Wil Lutz·48-yd field goal48-yard field goalholder T.Morstead · snap Z.Wood+36–3
Overtime5:11Wil Lutz·36-yd field goal36-yard field goalholder T.Morstead · snap Z.WoodLead never changed again+327–30
10 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Chargerscategory by categorySaints
Chargers4–5Saints
351Total yards408
5.2Yards per play5.4
40%Success rate45%
47%Third-down rate33%
3Red-zone touchdowns2
5Explosive plays4
17First downs23
3Sacks taken2
0Turnovers1
The read
Saints ahead 5–4 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Chargers, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.02Chargers: +0.02 expected points added per play
−0.04Saints: −0.04 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.14Chargers: +0.14 expected points added per play
−0.01Saints: −0.01 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.15Chargers: −0.15 expected points added per play
−0.09Saints: −0.09 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Chargers ran 68 snaps at a 56% dropback rate against Saints’s 75 at 67%. Red-zone trips: Chargers 4, Saints 4.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekOver Expected
LAC's pass rate over expected, −10.3 pts, was the lowest of the 28 team-games charted in week 5 — 1.4 points clear of the next team along.
68 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.4 points.
NO's early-down pass rate turned over: 36.5% in week 4 against 65.0% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
60 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.3 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 17 pts
right on their number · −0.3 vs their 14.3%, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (−0.05× that swing) · 50 dropbacks
Saints28.9%
leaned — got home · +11.9 vs their 17.0%, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (+1.82× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNO's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 28.9%, 11.9 points above their season mean of 17.0% and 1.8 times their own 6.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Los Angeles Chargers
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
79Trey PipkinsT · Every snap100%71 snaps
76Forrest LampOG · Every snap100%71 snaps
66Dan FeeneyG · Every snap100%71 snaps
10Justin HerbertQB · Every snap100%71 snaps
72Ryan GroyG · Every snap100%71 snaps
86Hunter HenryTE · Full-time94%67 snaps
69Sam TeviT · Full-time93%66 snaps
15Jalen GuytonWR · Full-time92%65 snaps
81Mike WilliamsWR · Heavy rotation77%55 snaps
22Justin JacksonRB · Heavy rotation59%42 snaps
84K.J. HillWR · Rotational49%35 snaps
27Joshua KelleyRB · Rotational35%25 snaps
88Virgil GreenTE · Rotational35%25 snaps
40Gabe NabersRB · Situational18%13 snaps
13Keenan AllenWR · Situational17%12 snaps
89Donald ParhamTE · Situational10%7 snaps
83Tyron JohnsonWR · Situational7%5 snaps
74Storm NortonOT · Situational7%5 snaps
35Troymaine PopeRB · Situational6%4 snaps
Inactive · 7
Joe GazianoDETrai TurnerGBryan BulagaOTTyrod TaylorQBJahleel AddaeSSJoe ReedWRJason MooreWR
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Saints attack right, the Chargers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Chargers←Saints→
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
J.Herbert pass+42% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(3:50) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep right to 81-M.Williams for 64 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 37, YAC 27
Q4 3:50 · Chargers · 3rd & 10 at LAC 36 · gained 64 · +6.20 EP · +42.0% win probability
185 snaps placed · 16 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 201 plays across 28 drives, personnel groupings on 201 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 28 drives ended in points. The longest march was NO moving 89 yards from the NO 11 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NO attacks right, LAC attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
201 of 201 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
201
EPA per play
-0.03
Success rate
39%
Yards
758
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Chargers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR38+0.1166%
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR37+0.4176%
Chargers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR18+0.1744%
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR8-1.1788%
Chargers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR7-0.3429%
Saints2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR6-0.2433%
Saints2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6-0.6850%
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR6-0.0233%
Saints1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR5-0.07100%
Chargers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR3——
Saints3 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Saints1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Saints2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Chargers2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Saints2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
201 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
201 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter41 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Chargers 15 to the Chargers 22
Punt6 plays, from the Saints 47 to the Chargers 36
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Chargers6Saints0
Touchdown11 plays, from the Chargers 20 to the Saints 17
Punt8 plays, from the Saints 22 to the Saints 37
Punt4 plays
Chargers6Saints3
Field goal5 plays, from the Chargers 48 to the Chargers 30
2nd quarter53 plays
Chargers12Saints3
Chargers13Saints3
Touchdown10 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Saints 4
Punt5 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Saints 34
Punt5 plays, from the Chargers 20 to the Chargers 26
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldTwo quarterbacks, one back, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.9 seconds
Intercepted3 plays, from the Saints 16 to the Saints 22
Chargers19Saints3
Chargers20Saints3
Touchdown4 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Saints 41
Punt6 plays
Chargers20Saints9
Chargers20Saints10
Touchdown10 plays, from the Saints 49 to the Chargers 1
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter37 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Saints 41
Punt7 plays, from the Chargers 11 to the Chargers 23
Chargers20Saints13
Field goal8 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Chargers 35
Punt10 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Saints 47
The period ended4 plays, from the Saints 11 to the Saints 22
4th quarter52 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxThree defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.4 seconds
Chargers20Saints19
Chargers20Saints20
Touchdown9 plays, from the Saints 37 to the Chargers 37
Punt11 plays, from the Chargers 17 to the Chargers 42
Punt4 plays, from the Saints 23 to the Saints 28
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.1 seconds
Chargers26Saints20
Chargers27Saints20
Touchdown5 plays, from the Chargers 22 to the Chargers 36
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Chargers27Saints26
Chargers27Saints27
Touchdown10 plays, from the Saints 27 to the Chargers 9
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
No good12 plays, from the Chargers 20 to the Saints 32
Overtime18 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldTwo quarterbacks, one back, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.3 seconds
Chargers27Saints30
Field goal11 plays, from the Saints 34 to the Chargers 18
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.6 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw1.7 seconds
Turnover on downs6 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Chargers 44
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
