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Los Angeles Rams 30 at Washington Commanders 10. Final.
Rams -7 ✓U 45 ✓
The verdict · 2020 Week 5
Los Angeles Rams 30, Commanders 10 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q2 15:00, 2nd and 6, on Robert Woods — 11.4 win-probability points to the Rams on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 15:00 · 2nd and 6
Robert Woods
Rams
(15:00) 16-J.Goff pass deep left to 17-R.Woods for 56 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Rams closed -7 and covered, winning by 20.
Los Angeles Rams 30–10 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 15:00, Rams +11.4% win probability on one snap.
11.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Kyle AllenCommandersQ1 1:41(1:41) (Shotgun) 8-K.Allen scrambles left end to LA 1 for 6 yards (22-T.Hill). Washington challenged the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 8-K.Allen scrambles left end for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
7.6pts
Jared GoffRamsQ1 0:10(:10) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short middle to 10-C.Kupp. PENALTY on WAS-22-D.Everett, Defensive Pass Interference, 15 yards, enforced at LA 25 - No Play.
5.3pts
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Rams won this one — +0.45 expected points per dropback, against Commanders at -0.55 expected points per dropback.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Rams won this one — 7 chunk plays, against Commanders at 0 chunk plays.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Rams won this one — +0.11 expected points per snap, against Commanders at -0.44 expected points per snap.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Rams won this one — 42% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Commanders at 25% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 11.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 31 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Commanders.
MarketModelmodel higher on Commandershigher on Rams155 of 163 plays carry both curves
(15:00) 16-J.Goff pass deep left to 17-R.Woods for 56 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −11.4 for CommandersExpected points −5.24 for CommandersThe model had Commanders 25 points higher than the market did.play 37
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 15:00WAS +11% win prob(15:00) 16-J.Goff pass deep left to 17-R.Woods for 56 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 1:41WAS +8% win prob(1:41) (Shotgun) 8-K.Allen scrambles left end to LA 1 for 6 yards (22-T.Hill). Washington challenged the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 8-K.Allen scrambles left end for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 0:10WAS +5% win prob(:10) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short middle to 10-C.Kupp. PENALTY on WAS-22-D.Everett, Defensive Pass Interference, 15 yards, enforced at LA 25 - No Play.
1st · 3:07WAS +5% win prob(3:07) (Shotgun) 8-K.Allen pass short right to 24-A.Gibson to LA 9 for 18 yards (41-K.Young; 90-M.Brockers).
1st · 9:42WAS +5% win prob(9:42) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 81-G.Everett to WAS 11 for 23 yards (54-K.Pierre-Louis).
1st · 12:13WAS +4% win prob(12:13) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 81-G.Everett to LA 46 for 17 yards (30-T.Apke).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Robert Woods's 56-yard touchdown catch with 15:00 left in the 2nd put Los Angeles Rams ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Lead
1st7:32Darrell Henderson·1-yd TD run1-yard rushing touchdownkick no good, wide left+66–0
2nd0:03Dustin Hopkins·48-yd field goal48-yard field goalholder T.Way · snap N.Sundberg+320–10
3rd7:08Sam Sloman·28-yd field goal28-yard field goalholder J.Hekker · snap J.McQuaide+323–10
4th6:42Darrell Henderson·11-yd TD catch11-yard touchdown catchfrom Jared Gofffrom Jared Goff+730–10
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Ramscategory by categoryCommanders
Rams8–1Commanders
431Total yards108
6.7Yards per play2.1
42%Success rate25%
43%Third-down rate15%
3Red-zone touchdowns1
7Explosive plays0
18First downs7
1Sacks taken8
1Turnovers0
The read
Rams ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — explosive plays.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.55 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.11Rams: +0.11 expected points added per play
−0.44Commanders: −0.44 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.45Rams: +0.45 expected points added per play
−0.55Commanders: −0.55 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.24Rams: −0.24 expected points added per play
−0.06Commanders: −0.06 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Rams ran 64 snaps at a 50% dropback rate against Commanders’s 52 at 77%. Red-zone trips: Rams 5, Commanders 1.
NoteRams won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.11 expected points added per play vs -0.44.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
WAS's sack or hit rate, 3.1%, is past their previous low of 7.0% in week 2 — the lowest of their 5 charted games through week 5.
32 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.4 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 17 pts
inside their normal wobble · +6.5 vs their 16.0%, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (+0.98× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Commanders3.1%
leaned — stayed blocked · −12.6 vs their 15.7%, and they swing ±8.4 week to week (−1.49× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteWAS's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 3.1%, 12.6 points below their season mean of 15.7% and 1.5 times their own 8.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Commanders attack right, the Rams attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Rams←Commanders→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Goff pass+16% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(15:00) 16-J.Goff pass deep left to 17-R.Woods for 56 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 15:00 · Rams · 2nd & 6 at LA 44 · gained 56 · +5.24 EP · +15.7% win probability
153 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 163 plays across 26 drives, personnel groupings on 163 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 26 drives ended in points. The longest march was LA moving 83 yards from the LA 17 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; WAS attacks right, LA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
163 of 163 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
163
EPA per play
-0.07
Success rate
38%
Yards
537
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Rams1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR48+0.1460%
Commanders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR40-0.4578%
Rams1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR16-0.0113%
Commanders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7-0.3657%
Commanders2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5-0.4660%
snapsepapass rate
163 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
163 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter36 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Commanders 29
Rams6Commanders0
Touchdown11 plays, from the Rams 24 to the Commanders 1
Rams6Commanders6
Rams6Commanders7
Touchdown13 plays, from the Commanders 27 to the Rams 7
The period ended6 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Rams 40
2nd quarter53 plays
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.4 seconds
Rams12Commanders7
Rams13Commanders7
Touchdown2 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Commanders 10 to the Commanders 42
Rams19Commanders7
Rams20Commanders7
Touchdown10 plays, from the Rams 17 to the Commanders 2
Punt5 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Rams 22 to the Commanders 46
Punt8 plays, from the Commanders 11 to the Commanders 41
Intercepted4 plays, from the Rams 24 to the Rams 39
Rams20Commanders10
Field goal9 plays, from the Commanders 41 to the Rams 30
3rd quarter36 plays
Punt5 plays
Punt4 plays
Rams23Commanders10
Field goal10 plays, from the Rams 20 to the Commanders 10
Punt5 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Commanders 26
Punt4 plays, from the Rams 30 to the Rams 38
Punt4 plays, from the Commanders 6 to the Commanders 10
The period ended4 plays, from the Commanders 43 to the Commanders 34
4th quarter38 plays
Turnover on downs1 play
Turnover on downs4 plays, from the Commanders 35 to the Commanders 43
Punt5 plays, from the Commanders 43 to the Commanders 38
Punt4 plays, from the Commanders 8 to the Commanders 12
Rams29Commanders10
Rams30Commanders10
Touchdown6 plays, from the Rams 49 to the Commanders 11
Punt5 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Rams 20 to the Commanders 34
Punt4 plays, from the Commanders 7 to the Commanders 14
The period ended4 plays, from the Rams 33 to the Rams 35
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
