2020 Week 5 · Sun, Oct 11, 2020 · Arrowhead Stadium

Las Vegas RaidersWinner

Kansas City Chiefs

KC -11 upsetO 54.5 ✓16 mph windChiefs closed -11 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Las Vegas Raiders 40–32. Biggest swing: Q2 2:50, KC +20% win probability on one snap. Played in 16 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 2:50LV — KC LV ball · 3rd & 2KC 83%

(2:50) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep middle to 11-H.Ruggs for 72 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 2:50KC +20% win prob(2:50) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep middle to 11-H.Ruggs for 72 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 14:21KC +15% win prob(14:21) (Shotgun) 28-J.Jacobs up the middle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 10:33KC +14% win prob(10:33) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 13-H.Renfrow to KC 36 for 42 yards (49-D.Sorensen).
Q4 · 12:36LV +11% win prob(12:36) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes sacked at KC 37 for -7 yards (98-M.Crosby).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Raiders	Chiefs
Offensive plays	65	67
Total yards	492 (edge)	415
Yards per play	7.6 (edge)	6.2
Expected points added / play	0.32 (edge)	0.17
Success rate	48% (edge)	40%
Dropback rate	49%	76%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.53 (edge)	0.20
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.11 (edge)	0.04
Third downs	7/14 (edge)	6/14
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	7	8 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	20 (edge)	19
Sacks taken	1 (edge)	3
Turnovers	1	1

Raiders won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.32 expected points added per play vs 0.17.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · LV

Derek CarrQB

22/31, 347 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT

16.9 expected points added · +6.9% completion over expected

Passing · KC

Patrick MahomesQB

22/43, 340 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

11.5 expected points added · -10.1% completion over expected

Rushing · LV

Josh JacobsRB

23 att, 77 yds, 2 TD

-1.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · LV

Devontae BookerRB

7 att, 62 yds, 0 TD

2.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · LV

Henry RuggsWR

2/3 for 118 yds, 1 TD

10% of team targets · 9.9 expected points added

Receiving · KC

Travis KelceTE

8/12 for 108 yds, 1 TD

29% of team targets · 2.9 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	KC	KC 25	7	31	2:26	Punt
2	LV	LV 5	11	85	5:49	Turnover on downs
3	KC	KC 12	11	88	4:39	Touchdown
4	LV	LV 9	4	9	1:32	Interception
5	KC	LV 28	5	28	1:05	Touchdown
6	LV	LV 25	7	75	2:41	Touchdown
7	KC	KC 25	9	75	2:44	Touchdown
8	LV	LV 25	7	75	2:40	Touchdown
9	KC	KC 25	8	18	2:08	Punt
10	LV	LV 20	4	80	1:37	Touchdown
11	KC	KC 28	13	70	2:11	Turnover on downs
12	LV	LV 32	3	11	0:28	End of half
13	LV	LV 25	5	2	1:29	Punt
14	KC	KC 16	4	7	2:05	Punt
15	LV	LV 24	6	11	1:43	Punt
16	KC	KC 6	6	18	2:28	Punt
17	LV	LV 29	14	66	8:01	Touchdown
18	KC	KC 25	6	-3	2:24	Punt
19	LV	LV 30	10	55	5:16	Turnover on downs
20	KC	KC 25	5	3	1:03	Interception
21	LV	KC 2	2	2	0:05	Touchdown
22	KC	KC 25	10	80	1:29	Touchdown
23	LV	LV 35	9	21	3:57	End of game

0 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Chiefs gained 88 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Las Vegas Raiders

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Derek Carr	22/31	347	3	1	1	16.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Josh Jacobs	23	77	3.3	2	-1.2
Devontae Booker	7	62	8.9	0	2.4
Jalen Richard	1	4	4.0	0	-0.2
Derek Carr	4	1	0.3	0	1.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Henry Ruggs	2	3	118	1	10%	9.9
Nelson Agholor	2	2	67	1	6%	5.1
Darren Waller	5	7	48	1	23%	-0.8
Hunter Renfrow	1	2	42	0	6%	2.9
Jalen Richard	4	5	26	0	16%	0.2
Alec Ingold	2	4	25	0	13%	2.4
Josh Jacobs	2	3	8	0	10%	-1.0
Jason Witten	2	2	6	0	6%	0.0
Devontae Booker	1	1	5	0	3%	0.1
Zay Jones	1	1	2	0	3%	-0.6
Rico Gafford	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Nevin Lawson	5	1	1.0	0
Cory Littleton	3	2	0.0	0
Johnathan Abram	4	1	0.0	1
Clelin Ferrell	3	0	0.0	1
Trayvon Mullen	3	0	0.0	1
Erik Harris	3	0	0.0	1
Nick Kwiatkoski	2	0	0.0	2
Nicholas Morrow	2	0	0.0	0
Raekwon McMillan	1	1	0.0	0
Arden Key	2	0	0.0	0

Kansas City Chiefs

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Patrick Mahomes	22/43	340	2	1	3	11.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	10	40	4.0	0	0.2
Patrick Mahomes	6	21	3.5	1	-0.9
Tyreek Hill	3	15	5.0	1	0.3
Darrel Williams	1	4	4.0	0	-0.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Travis Kelce	8	12	108	1	29%	2.9
Tyreek Hill	3	6	78	0	14%	3.7
Mecole Hardman	2	3	50	0	7%	5.5
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	3	8	40	0	19%	0.1
Sammy Watkins	2	2	24	1	5%	4.0
Byron Pringle	1	1	23	0	2%	3.0
Darrel Williams	1	5	15	0	12%	-0.7
Demarcus Robinson	2	4	2	0	10%	-2.6
Nick Keizer	0	1	0	0	2%	-0.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Anthony Hitchens	6	4	0.0	0
Damien Wilson	3	6	0.0	0
Daniel Sorensen	5	2	0.0	0
Willie Gay	5	1	1.0	0
Derrick Nnadi	3	2	0.0	0
Chris Jones	3	1	0.0	1
Charvarius Ward	2	2	0.0	0
Rashad Fenton	2	1	0.0	1
Tershawn Wharton	1	2	0.0	0
Ben Niemann	1	1	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: KC -11
Closing total: 54.5
LV moneyline: +387
KC moneyline: -476

Chiefs closed -11 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 54.5; the game landed 72 — over by 17.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Arrowhead Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · astroturf
Kickoff weather: 80°F, wind 16 mph
Referee: Clete Blakeman
Rest: LV 7 days · KC 6 days
Coaches: Jon Gruden vs Andy Reid

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.

Wind at 16 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.