For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 15.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 30 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Raiders.
MarketModelmodel higher on Chiefshigher on Raiders179 of 191 plays carry both curves
(2:50) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep middle to 11-H.Ruggs for 72 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −19.6 for ChiefsExpected points −6.59 for ChiefsThe model had Raiders 17 points higher than the market did.play 80
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 2:50KC +20% win prob(2:50) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep middle to 11-H.Ruggs for 72 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 14:21KC +15% win prob(14:21) (Shotgun) 28-J.Jacobs up the middle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 10:33KC +14% win prob(10:33) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 13-H.Renfrow to KC 36 for 42 yards (49-D.Sorensen).
4th · 12:36LV +11% win prob(12:36) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes sacked at KC 37 for -7 yards (98-M.Crosby).
2nd · 2:22KC +11% win prob(2:22) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep middle to 87-T.Kelce to KC 46 for 23 yards (24-J.Abram).
3rd · 3:10KC +11% win prob(3:10) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short middle to 83-D.Waller to KC 25 for 23 yards (49-D.Sorensen).
1st · 8:51KC +10% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Josh Jacobs's 7-yard rushing touchdown with 14:21 left in the 4th put Las Vegas Raiders ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
Lead
1st6:49Daniel Carlson·38-yd field goal38-yard field goalholder A.Cole · snap T.Sieg+33–0
4th4:01Travis Kelce·7-yd TD catch7-yard touchdown catchfrom Patrick Mahomesfrom Patrick Mahomes · two-point good+840–32
12 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Raiderscategory by categoryChiefs
Raiders6–2Chiefs
492Total yards415
7.6Yards per play6.2
48%Success rate40%
50%Third-down rate43%
3Red-zone touchdowns4
7Explosive plays8
20First downs19
1Sacks taken3
1Turnovers1
The read
Raiders ahead 6–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.53 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.32Raiders: +0.32 expected points added per play
+0.17Chiefs: +0.17 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.53Raiders: +0.53 expected points added per play
+0.20Chiefs: +0.20 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.11Raiders: +0.11 expected points added per play
+0.04Chiefs: +0.04 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Raiders ran 65 snaps at a 49% dropback rate against Chiefs’s 67 at 76%. Red-zone trips: Raiders 6, Chiefs 5.
NoteRaiders won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.32 expected points added per play vs 0.17.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
LV's early-down pass rate, 40.8%, was the lowest of the 28 team-games charted in week 5 — 3.2 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous low of 44.0% in week 1.
A 2.4-swing turn from week 4.
49 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.5 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 29 pts
right on their number · −2.4 vs their 12.2%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (−0.38× that swing) · 51 dropbacks
Chiefs12.5%
inside their normal wobble · −3.1 vs their 15.6%, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (−0.57× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteLV's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 40.8%, 13.3 points below their season mean of 54.1% and 1.1 times their own 12.5-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Chiefs attack right, the Raiders attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Raiders←Chiefs→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Carr pass+23% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(2:50) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep middle to 11-H.Ruggs for 72 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 2:50 · Raiders · 3rd & 2 at LV 28 · gained 72 · +6.59 EP · +22.9% win probability
177 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 191 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 191 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
12 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was KC moving 88 yards from the KC 12 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; KC attacks right, LV attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
191 of 191 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
191
EPA per play
+0.16
Success rate
42%
Yards
905
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Chiefs1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR52+0.2175%
Raiders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR23+0.7865%
Chiefs1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14+0.0650%
Raiders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12+0.3242%
Raiders2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR12-0.4450%
Raiders2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR10+0.0240%
Raiders1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR7+0.4029%
Chiefs2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Raiders2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
191 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
191 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter41 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Punt8 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Chiefs 46
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.3 seconds
Raiders3Chiefs0
Field goal13 plays, from the Raiders 5 to the Chiefs 20
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.9 seconds
Raiders3Chiefs6
Raiders3Chiefs7
Touchdown11 plays, from the Chiefs 12 to the Raiders 3
Intercepted5 plays, from the Raiders 9 to the Raiders 37
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter61 plays
Raiders3Chiefs13
Raiders3Chiefs14
Touchdown3 plays, from the Raiders 15 to the Raiders 10
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.4 seconds
Raiders9Chiefs14
Raiders10Chiefs14
Touchdown7 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Raiders 41
Raiders10Chiefs20
Raiders10Chiefs21
Touchdown9 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Raiders 8
Raiders16Chiefs21
Raiders17Chiefs21
Touchdown7 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Chiefs 5
Punt10 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Chiefs 43
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.7 seconds
Raiders23Chiefs21
Raiders24Chiefs21
Touchdown4 plays, from the Raiders 20 to the Raiders 28
Raiders24Chiefs24
Field goal16 plays, from the Chiefs 28 to the Raiders 3
The period ended5 plays, from the Raiders 32 to the Raiders 35
3rd quarter36 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Raiders 27
Punt4 plays, from the Chiefs 16 to the Chiefs 24
Punt7 plays, from the Raiders 24 to the Raiders 35
Punt6 plays, from the Chiefs 6 to the Chiefs 24
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
The period ended14 plays, from the Raiders 29 to the Chiefs 16
4th quarter53 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Raiders30Chiefs24
Touchdown3 plays, from the Chiefs 14 to the Chiefs 7
Punt6 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Chiefs 44
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.8 seconds
Raiders33Chiefs24
Field goal12 plays, from the Raiders 30 to the Chiefs 24
Intercepted5 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Chiefs 28
Raiders39Chiefs24
Raiders40Chiefs24
Touchdown2 plays
Raiders40Chiefs30
Raiders40Chiefs32
Touchdown12 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Raiders 7
The period ended13 plays, from the Raiders 35 to the Chiefs 44
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Chiefs -11
Closing total
54.5
Raiders moneyline
+387
Chiefs moneyline
-476
Chiefs closed -11 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 54.5; the game landed 72 — over by 17.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Arrowhead Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · astroturf
Kickoff weather
Warm, 78°F at kickoff; breezy at 11 mph out of the south; clear.
Referee
Clete Blakeman
Rest
Raiders 7 days · Chiefs 6 days
Coaches
Jon Gruden vs Andy Reid
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
(8:51) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 11-H.Ruggs to KC 24 for 46 yards (27-R.Fenton).
2nd · 1:07KC +10% win prob(1:07) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 13-B.Pringle to LV 6 for 23 yards (24-J.Abram). PENALTY on LV-24-J.Abram, Face Mask (15 Yards), 3 yards, enforced at LV 6.
