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Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 10.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 29 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Dolphins.
MarketModelmodel higher on 49ershigher on Dolphins166 of 176 plays carry both curves
(4:01) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass deep left to 88-M.Gesicki to SF 10 for 70 yards (20-J.Ward). caught at MIA46, 44 YAC
Swing −13.5 for 49ersExpected points −5.07 for 49ersThe model had Dolphins 16 points higher than the market did.play 70
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 4:01SF +13% win prob(4:01) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass deep left to 88-M.Gesicki to SF 10 for 70 yards (20-J.Ward). caught at MIA46, 44 YAC
3rd · 8:16SF +10% win prob(8:16) (No Huddle) 3-C.Beathard pass short right to 84-K.Bourne for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. caught at MIA 18, 18 YAC
1st · 7:40MIA +10% win prob(7:40) (Shotgun) 28-J.McKinnon left guard to MIA 44 for no gain (94-C.Wilkins; 91-E.Ogbah).
1st · 10:49SF +9% win prob(10:49) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short right to 80-A.Shaheen for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 13:37SF +9% win prob(13:37) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass deep left to 18-P.Williams ran ob at SF 32 for 47 yards. caught at 35, 3 YAC
2nd · 0:26MIA +8% win prob(:26) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass deep right intended for 19-D.Samuel INTERCEPTED by 25-X.Howard at SF 48. 25-X.Howard to SF 19 for 29 yards (28-J.McKinnon).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Adam Shaheen's 3-yard touchdown catch with 10:49 left in the 1st put Miami Dolphins ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 11 scores that followed.
Lead
1st10:49Adam Shaheen·3-yd TD catch3-yard touchdown catchfrom Ryan Fitzpatrickfrom Ryan FitzpatrickLead never changed again+77–0
3rd4:48Preston Williams·32-yd TD catch32-yard touchdown catchfrom Ryan Fitzpatrickfrom Ryan Fitzpatrick+737–14
3rd0:51Robbie Gould·37-yd field goal37-yard field goalholder M.Wishnowsky · snap T.Pepper+337–17
4th8:45Jason Sanders·31-yd field goal31-yard field goalholder M.Haack · snap B.Ferguson+340–17
4th5:57Jason Sanders·49-yd field goal49-yard field goalholder M.Haack · snap B.Ferguson+343–17
12 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Dolphinscategory by category49ers
Dolphins8–049ers
437Total yards259
7.2Yards per play4.4
49%Success rate44%
33%Third-down rate20%
2Red-zone touchdowns2
9Explosive plays3
18First downs15
2Sacks taken5
0Turnovers3
The read
Dolphins ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.80 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.34Dolphins: +0.34 expected points added per play
−0.3049ers: −0.30 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.80Dolphins: +0.80 expected points added per play
−0.5149ers: −0.51 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.14Dolphins: −0.14 expected points added per play
+0.1449ers: +0.14 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Dolphins ran 61 snaps at a 51% dropback rate against 49ers’s 59 at 68%. Red-zone trips: Dolphins 8, 49ers 3.
NoteDolphins won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.34 expected points added per play vs -0.30.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
SF's fourth-and-short go rate, 66.7%, sat 36.2 points above their season number of 30.4% — they went for it by 2.4 times their own 15.3-point weekly swing.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 8 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 15.3 points.
MIA's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 0.0% in week 4 against 33.3% here — they took the kick then and went for it now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
6 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 9 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 15.9 points.
MIA's early-down pass rate turned over: 74.5% in week 4 against 46.8% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
47 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.7 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -15 pts to 19 pts
leaned — got home · +7.0 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (+1.05× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
49ers19.4%
leaned — got home · +7.3 vs their 12.1%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (+1.09× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteSF's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 66.7%, 36.2 points above their season mean of 30.4% and 2.4 times their own 15.3-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Miami Dolphins
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 3 never used
68Robert HuntOT · Every snap100%67 snaps
75Ereck FlowersT · Every snap100%67 snaps
77Jesse DavisG · Every snap100%67 snaps
67Ted KarrasC · Every snap100%67 snaps
66Solomon KindleyOG · Every snap100%67 snaps
14Ryan FitzpatrickQB · Every snap100%67 snaps
11DeVante ParkerWR · Heavy rotation79%53 snaps
37Myles GaskinRB · Heavy rotation63%42 snaps
18Preston WilliamsWR · Heavy rotation60%40 snaps
80Adam ShaheenTE · Heavy rotation57%38 snaps
88Mike GesickiTE · Rotational45%30 snaps
84Isaiah FordWR · Rotational36%24 snaps
27Chandler CoxFB · Rotational34%23 snaps
22Matt BreidaRB · Rotational31%21 snaps
78Adam PankeyG · Rotational27%18 snaps
19Jakeem GrantWR · Situational21%14 snaps
86Mack HollinsWR · Situational15%10 snaps
32Patrick LairdRB · Situational15%10 snaps
15Lynn BowdenWR · Situational15%10 snaps
—Julién DavenportT · Situational3%2 snaps
Inactive · 6
Jason StrowbridgeDEShaq LawsonDEJordan HowardRBSalvon AhmedRBMalcolm PerryRBDurham SmytheTE
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The 49ers attack right, the Dolphins attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Dolphins←49ers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
R.Fitzpatrick pass+11% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(13:37) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass deep left to 18-P.Williams ran ob at SF 32 for 47 yards. caught at 35, 3 YAC
Q1 13:37 · Dolphins · 1st & 10 at MIA 21 · gained 47 · +3.39 EP · +10.8% win probability
164 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 176 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 176 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
12 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIA moving 79 yards from the MIA 21 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; SF attacks right, MIA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
176 of 176 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
176
EPA per play
+0.04
Success rate
45%
Yards
695
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
49ers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR34-0.5682%
Dolphins1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR24+0.5479%
49ers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR22-0.0050%
Dolphins2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR9-0.080%
Dolphins2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR7+0.2829%
Dolphins2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR7+0.4329%
Dolphins1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7+0.1586%
Dolphins1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5-0.1620%
49ers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR3——
Dolphins2 RB, 1 TE, 0 WR1——
Dolphins0 RB, 0 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
176 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
176 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter41 plays
Punt5 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the 49ers 30
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldTwo backs and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.9 seconds
Dolphins649ers0
Dolphins749ers0
Touchdown8 plays, from the Dolphins 21 to the 49ers 3
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the Dolphins 44
Dolphins1349ers0
Dolphins1449ers0
Touchdown8 plays, from the Dolphins 44 to the 49ers 1
Punt9 plays, from the 49ers 14 to the 49ers 42
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter51 plays
Punt3 plays, from the Dolphins 3 to the Dolphins 13
Dolphins1449ers6
Dolphins1449ers7
Touchdown4 plays, from the Dolphins 49 to the Dolphins 7
Dolphins2049ers7
Dolphins2149ers7
Touchdown11 plays, from the Dolphins 22 to the 49ers 1
Punt9 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the Dolphins 40
Dolphins2449ers7
Field goal6 plays, from the Dolphins 21 to the 49ers 6
Intercepted4 plays
Dolphins2749ers7
Field goal4 plays, from the 49ers 37 to the 49ers 32
Intercepted5 plays
Dolphins3049ers7
Field goal4 plays, from the 49ers 19 to the 49ers 11
3rd quarter46 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Dolphins 43
Dolphins3049ers13
Dolphins3049ers14
Touchdown12 plays, from the 49ers 26 to the Dolphins 19
Dolphins3649ers14
Dolphins3749ers14
Touchdown9 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the 49ers 32
Dolphins3749ers17
Field goal14 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the Dolphins 15
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter38 plays
Dolphins4049ers17
Field goal12 plays, from the Dolphins 30 to the 49ers 13
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the 49ers 34
Dolphins4349ers17
Field goal4 plays, from the 49ers 33 to the 49ers 31
The period ended1 play
Fumble lost8 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the Dolphins 48
The period ended7 plays, from the 49ers 31 to the 49ers 20
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
