2020 Week 5 · Sun, Oct 11, 2020 · Levi's Stadium

Miami DolphinsWinner

San Francisco 49ers

SF -8.5 upsetO 50.5 ✓49ers closed -8.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Miami Dolphins 43–17 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 4:01, SF +13% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 4:01MIA — SF MIA ball · 2nd & 11MIA 70%

(4:01) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass deep left to 88-M.Gesicki to SF 10 for 70 yards (20-J.Ward). caught at MIA46, 44 YAC

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 4:01SF +13% win prob(4:01) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass deep left to 88-M.Gesicki to SF 10 for 70 yards (20-J.Ward). caught at MIA46, 44 YAC
Q3 · 8:16SF +10% win prob(8:16) (No Huddle) 3-C.Beathard pass short right to 84-K.Bourne for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. caught at MIA 18, 18 YAC
Q1 · 7:40MIA +10% win prob(7:40) (Shotgun) 28-J.McKinnon left guard to MIA 44 for no gain (94-C.Wilkins; 91-E.Ogbah).
Q1 · 10:49SF +9% win prob(10:49) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short right to 80-A.Shaheen for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Dolphins	49ers
Offensive plays	61	59
Total yards	437 (edge)	259
Yards per play	7.2 (edge)	4.4
Expected points added / play	0.34 (edge)	-0.30
Success rate	49% (edge)	44%
Dropback rate	51%	68%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.80 (edge)	-0.51
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.14	0.14 (edge)
Third downs	4/12 (edge)	2/10
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	9 (edge)	3
First downs gained on snaps	18 (edge)	15
Sacks taken	2 (edge)	5
Turnovers	0 (edge)	3

Dolphins won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.34 expected points added per play vs -0.30.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · MIA

Ryan FitzpatrickQB

22/28, 350 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

23.5 expected points added · +20.6% completion over expected

Passing · SF

C.J. BeathardQB

9/18, 94 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

-7.9 expected points added · -17.1% completion over expected

Rushing · SF

Raheem MostertRB

11 att, 90 yds, 0 TD

2.6 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · MIA

Myles GaskinRB

16 att, 57 yds, 1 TD

-2.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · MIA

Preston WilliamsWR

4/5 for 106 yds, 1 TD

19% of team targets · 6.6 expected points added

Receiving · MIA

Mike GesickiTE

5/6 for 91 yds, 0 TD

22% of team targets · 6.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	SF	SF 25	5	5	1:23	Punt
2	MIA	MIA 21	7	70	2:52	Touchdown
3	SF	SF 25	8	31	3:12	Turnover on downs
4	MIA	MIA 44	8	48	3:19	Touchdown
5	SF	SF 14	8	28	3:35	Punt
6	MIA	MIA 5	4	8	2:14	Punt
7	SF	MIA 49	4	49	1:18	Touchdown
8	MIA	MIA 22	9	71	4:38	Touchdown
9	SF	SF 25	8	27	2:49	Punt
10	MIA	MIA 21	6	71	2:40	Turnover on downs
11	SF	SF 25	4	0	0:19	Interception
12	MIA	SF 37	4	5	1:03	Turnover on downs
13	SF	SF 25	4	0	0:24	Interception
14	MIA	SF 19	3	8	0:14	Turnover on downs
15	MIA	MIA 25	8	18	3:33	Punt
16	SF	SF 26	10	54	3:20	Touchdown
17	MIA	MIA 25	9	75	3:25	Touchdown
18	SF	SF 25	10	41	3:56	Turnover on downs
19	MIA	MIA 25	10	50	7:06	Turnover on downs
20	SF	SF 25	5	8	1:08	Turnover on downs
21	MIA	SF 33	4	2	1:40	Turnover on downs
22	SF	SF 25	8	16	1:43	Fumble
23	MIA	SF 31	6	11	4:09	End of game

0 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Dolphins gained 75 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Miami Dolphins

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Ryan Fitzpatrick	22/28	350	3	0	2	23.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Myles Gaskin	16	57	3.6	1	-2.4
Matt Breida	9	28	3.1	0	-1.3
Ryan Fitzpatrick	3	16	5.3	0	-2.6
Lynn Bowden	3	4	1.3	0	-0.0
Clayton Fejedelem	1	1	1.0	0	2.0
Jakeem Grant	1	-12	-12.0	0	-2.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Preston Williams	4	5	106	1	19%	6.6
Mike Gesicki	5	6	91	0	22%	6.1
DeVante Parker	2	3	50	1	11%	5.9
Myles Gaskin	5	5	34	0	19%	1.4
Matt Breida	1	1	31	0	4%	2.1
Isaiah Ford	2	2	23	0	7%	2.7
Chandler Cox	1	1	6	0	4%	0.2
Jakeem Grant	1	3	6	0	11%	-0.6
Adam Shaheen	1	1	3	1	4%	1.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Jerome Baker	6	1	1.0	0	0
Andrew Van Ginkel	4	2	1.0	0	0
Eric Rowe	4	0	0.0	0	2
Nik Needham	2	1	0.0	0	1
Emmanuel Ogbah	1	2	1.0	0	1
Bobby McCain	3	0	0.0	1	1
Davon Godchaux	1	1	0.0	0	0
Zach Sieler	1	1	1.0	0	0
Sam Eguavoen	2	0	0.0	0	0
Christian Wilkins	1	1	0.0	0	0

San Francisco 49ers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
C.J. Beathard	9/18	94	1	0	2	-7.9
Jimmy Garoppolo	7/17	77	0	2	3	-12.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Raheem Mostert	11	90	8.2	0	2.6
Jeffery Wilson	4	27	6.8	0	1.8
Kyle Juszczyk	2	11	5.5	1	1.8
Deebo Samuel	1	3	3.0	0	-0.2
Jerick McKinnon	1	0	0.0	0	-3.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Brandon Aiyuk	3	6	44	0	17%	-1.0
George Kittle	4	8	44	0	23%	1.1
Kendrick Bourne	2	4	30	1	11%	0.5
Raheem Mostert	3	3	29	0	9%	1.0
Deebo Samuel	2	8	19	0	23%	-5.3
Jerick McKinnon	2	4	5	0	11%	-5.2
Jeffery Wilson	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.5
Kyle Juszczyk	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks
Fred Warner	6	3	0.0
Jimmie Ward	6	2	0.0
Dre Greenlaw	5	2	0.0
Jaquiski Tartt	5	2	0.0
Kwon Alexander	4	1	1.0
Brian Allen	3	0	0.0
Ahkello Witherspoon	2	1	0.0
Javon Kinlaw	2	1	0.0
Arik Armstead	1	1	0.0
Kevin Givens	1	1	0.0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: SF -8.5
Closing total: 50.5
MIA moneyline: +301
SF moneyline: -357

49ers closed -8.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 50.5; the game landed 60 — over by 9.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Levi's Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 73°F, wind 6 mph
Referee: Land Clark
Rest: MIA 7 days · SF 7 days
Coaches: Brian Flores vs Kyle Shanahan