2020 Week 5 · Sun, Oct 11, 2020 · CenturyLink Field

Minnesota Vikings

Seattle SeahawksWinner

SEA -6.5 no coverU 54 ✓Seahawks closed -6.5, won by 1 — but didn't cover.

Seattle Seahawks 27–26 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:20, SEA +50% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 0:20MIN — SEA SEA ball · 4th & 6MIN 69%

(:20) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 14-D.Metcalf for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 0:20SEA +50% win prob(:20) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 14-D.Metcalf for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 0:10MIN +29% win prob(:10) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins sacked at MIN 27 for -8 yards (95-B.Mayowa). FUMBLES (95-B.Mayowa), touched at MIN 45, recovered by MIN-82-K.Rudolph at MIN 38. The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
Q4 · 1:21SEA +28% win prob(1:21) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep left to 14-D.Metcalf pushed ob at MIN 38 for 39 yards (27-C.Dantzler).
Q4 · 0:24MIN +22% win prob(:24) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete short right to 14-D.Metcalf.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Vikings	Seahawks
Offensive plays	84	53
Total yards	449 (edge)	314
Yards per play	5.3	5.9 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.09 (edge)	0.07
Success rate	48% (edge)	42%
Dropback rate	50%	79%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.28 (edge)	0.08
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.09	0.02 (edge)
Third downs	6/14 (edge)	0/7
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	9 (edge)	6
First downs gained on snaps	30 (edge)	19
Sacks taken	3 (edge)	4
Turnovers	2	1 (edge)

Vikings outgained Seahawks 449–314 but lost the turnover battle 2–1. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · MIN

Kirk CousinsQB

27/39, 249 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

11.7 expected points added · +5.9% completion over expected

Passing · SEA

Russell WilsonQB

20/32, 217 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT

0.9 expected points added · +9.4% completion over expected

Rushing · MIN

Alexander MattisonRB

20 att, 112 yds, 0 TD

-2.1 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · MIN

Dalvin CookRB

17 att, 65 yds, 1 TD

-1.9 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · SEA

DK MetcalfWR

6/11 for 93 yds, 2 TD

37% of team targets · 8.0 expected points added

Receiving · MIN

Adam ThielenWR

9/13 for 80 yds, 2 TD

34% of team targets · 9.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	MIN	MIN 23	14	77	6:12	Touchdown
2	SEA	SEA 25	10	43	5:02	Punt
3	MIN	MIN 2	17	74	10:13	Turnover on downs
4	SEA	SEA 25	7	17	3:05	Punt
5	MIN	MIN 12	4	9	2:14	Punt
6	SEA	SEA 40	4	-15	1:27	Punt
7	MIN	MIN 15	11	57	1:37	Turnover on downs
8	SEA	SEA 25	3	21	0:10	End of half
9	SEA	SEA 25	5	9	1:55	Punt
10	MIN	MIN 15	4	1	1:28	Punt
11	SEA	SEA 42	5	58	1:42	Touchdown
12	MIN	MIN 25	4	3	0:57	Fumble
13	SEA	MIN 15	3	15	0:39	Touchdown
14	MIN	MIN 25	2	0	0:10	Interception
15	SEA	MIN 29	2	29	0:07	Touchdown
16	MIN	MIN 23	13	72	4:23	Touchdown
17	SEA	SEA 25	9	35	3:20	Punt
18	MIN	MIN 3	16	92	8:11	Touchdown
19	SEA	SEA 25	5	8	1:23	Interception
20	MIN	50	7	54	3:48	Turnover on downs
21	SEA	SEA 6	14	94	1:42	Touchdown
22	MIN	MIN 25	3	10	0:15	End of game

0 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Seahawks gained 94 scrimmage yards over 14 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Minnesota Vikings

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Kirk Cousins	27/39	249	2	1	3	11.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Alexander Mattison	20	112	5.6	0	-2.1
Dalvin Cook	17	65	3.8	1	-1.9
Mike Boone	2	19	9.5	0	1.0
Adam Thielen	1	3	3.0	0	-0.5
Kirk Cousins	1	2	2.0	0	-0.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Adam Thielen	9	13	80	2	34%	9.2
Irv Smith	4	5	64	0	13%	6.0
Alexander Mattison	3	3	24	0	8%	1.0
Dalvin Cook	5	5	24	0	13%	1.0
Justin Jefferson	3	5	23	0	13%	-2.0
Olabisi Johnson	1	1	13	0	3%	0.9
Chad Beebe	1	2	11	0	5%	2.1
Kyle Rudolph	1	2	10	0	5%	-0.3
C.J. Ham	0	2	0	0	5%	-1.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Eric Kendricks	7	1	0.0	0	0
Eric Wilson	4	2	1.0	1	1
Cameron Dantzler	4	1	0.0	0	0
Anthony Harris	3	1	0.0	0	0
Ifeadi Odenigbo	2	1	1.0	0	0
Jeff Gladney	2	1	0.0	0	0
Jaleel Johnson	1	1	0.0	0	0
Harrison Smith	1	1	0.0	0	0
Mike Boone	1	0	0.0	0	0
Justin Jefferson	1	0	0.0	0	0

Seattle Seahawks

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Russell Wilson	20/32	217	3	1	4	0.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Russell Wilson	5	58	11.6	0	2.5
Chris Carson	8	52	6.5	1	1.4
Travis Homer	3	14	4.7	0	-1.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
DK Metcalf	6	11	93	2	37%	8.0
Tyler Lockett	4	5	44	0	17%	1.9
Chris Carson	6	7	27	0	23%	-4.3
Greg Olsen	1	1	20	0	3%	1.3
Will Dissly	1	1	19	1	3%	2.2
Freddie Swain	2	2	14	0	7%	-0.6
David Moore	0	3	0	0	10%	-1.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Bobby Wagner	5	9	0.0	0
Cody Barton	9	5	0.0	0
Shaquill Griffin	7	1	0.0	2
Ryan Neal	6	2	0.0	1
Quandre Diggs	3	4	0.0	0
Benson Mayowa	1	4	1.0	0
Quinton Dunbar	3	1	0.0	1
Damontre Moore	2	2	1.0	0
Jarran Reed	3	1	0.0	0
Tre Flowers	3	1	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: SEA -6.5
Closing total: 54
MIN moneyline: +245
SEA moneyline: -284

Seahawks closed -6.5, won by 1 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 54; the game landed 53 — under by 1.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: CenturyLink Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: 54°F, wind 10 mph
Referee: Tony Corrente
Rest: MIN 7 days · SEA 7 days
Coaches: Mike Zimmer vs Pete Carroll