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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:47 AM ET · 16 to play
2020 Week 5 · Sun, Oct 11, 2020 · CenturyLink Field
Final
VikingsMinnesota26
BY 1final margin
SeahawksSeattle27
Minnesota Vikings 26 at Seattle Seahawks 27. Final.
Seahawks -6.5 no coverU 54 ✓
The verdict · 2020 Week 5
Seattle Seahawks 27, Vikings 26 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 0:20, 4th and 6, on DK Metcalf — 50.0 win-probability points to the Seahawks on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:20 · 4th and 6
DK Metcalf
Seahawks
(:20) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 14-D.Metcalf for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
20 mph wind
Seahawks closed -6.5, won by 1 — but didn't cover.
Seattle Seahawks 27–26 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:20, Seahawks +50.0% win probability on one snap. Played in 20 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
50.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
DK MetcalfSeahawksQ4 1:21(1:21) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep left to 14-D.Metcalf pushed ob at MIN 38 for 39 yards (27-C.Dantzler).
28.2pts
Kirk CousinsSeahawksQ4 0:10(:10) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins sacked at MIN 27 for -8 yards (95-B.Mayowa). FUMBLES (95-B.Mayowa), touched at MIN 45, recovered by MIN-82-K.Rudolph at MIN 38. The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
28.8pts
What separated them
Third down
Vikings owned this one and still lost it — 6 of 14 on third down, against Seahawks at 0 of 7 on third down.
Vikingsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Vikings owned this one and still lost it — 9 chunk plays, against Seahawks at 6 chunk plays.
Vikingsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Seahawks won this one — 1 giveaway, against Vikings at 2 giveaways.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Vikings owned this one and still lost it — 48% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Seahawks at 42% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Vikingsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 10.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 23 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Vikings.
MarketModelmodel higher on Seahawkshigher on Vikings170 of 181 plays carry both curves
(:20) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 14-D.Metcalf for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +50.0 for SeahawksExpected points +4.40 for SeahawksThe model had Seahawks 3 points higher than the market did.play 176
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:20SEA +50% win prob(:20) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 14-D.Metcalf for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 0:10MIN +29% win prob(:10) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins sacked at MIN 27 for -8 yards (95-B.Mayowa). FUMBLES (95-B.Mayowa), touched at MIN 45, recovered by MIN-82-K.Rudolph at MIN 38. The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
4th · 1:21SEA +28% win prob(1:21) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep left to 14-D.Metcalf pushed ob at MIN 38 for 39 yards (27-C.Dantzler).
4th · 0:24MIN +22% win prob(:24) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete short right to 14-D.Metcalf.
4th · 2:00MIN +18% win prob(2:00) 25-A.Mattison right guard to SEA 6 for no gain (54-B.Wagner; 95-B.Mayowa).
4th · 5:56MIN +16% win prob(5:56) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep right intended for 32-C.Carson INTERCEPTED by 50-E.Wilson at MIN 43. 50-E.Wilson to 50 for 7 yards (14-D.Metcalf).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
DK Metcalf's 6-yard touchdown catch with 0:20 left in the 4th put Seattle Seahawks ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
4th0:20DK Metcalf·6-yd TD catch6-yard touchdown catchfrom Russell Wilsonfrom Russell Wilson · two-point no goodLead never changed again+626–27
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Vikingscategory by categorySeahawks
Vikings6–2Seahawks
449Total yards314
5.3Yards per play5.9
48%Success rate42%
43%Third-down rate0%
3Red-zone touchdowns3
9Explosive plays6
30First downs19
3Sacks taken4
2Turnovers1
The read
Vikings ahead 6–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — third-down rate.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.09Vikings: +0.09 expected points added per play
+0.07Seahawks: +0.07 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.28Vikings: +0.28 expected points added per play
+0.08Seahawks: +0.08 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.09Vikings: −0.09 expected points added per play
+0.02Seahawks: +0.02 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Vikings ran 84 snaps at a 50% dropback rate against Seahawks’s 53 at 79%. Red-zone trips: Vikings 4, Seahawks 4.
NoteVikings outgained Seahawks 449-314 but lost the turnover battle 2-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
SEA's early-down pass rate, 79.1%, was the highest of the 28 team-games charted in week 5 — 5.3 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of 65.5% in week 3.
43 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.1 points.
MIN's sack or hit rate, 21.4%, is past their previous high of 17.1% in week 3 — the highest of their 5 charted games through week 5.
42 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 22 pts
leaned — got home · +10.2 vs their 11.3%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (+1.34× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Seahawks14.3%
right on their number · −0.6 vs their 14.9%, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (−0.11× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteSEA's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 79.1%, 17.2 points above their season mean of 61.8% and 1.7 times their own 10.1-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Seahawks attack right, the Vikings attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Vikings←Seahawks→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
R.Wilson pass+44% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(:20) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 14-D.Metcalf for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 0:20 · Seahawks · 4th & goal at MIN 6 · gained 6 · +4.40 EP · +44.1% win probability
168 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 181 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 181 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIN moving 97 yards from the MIN 3 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; SEA attacks right, MIN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
181 of 181 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
181
EPA per play
+0.06
Success rate
42%
Yards
763
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Seahawks1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR41+0.0073%
Vikings1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR27+0.0067%
Vikings1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR25+0.0672%
Vikings2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR14-0.0214%
Vikings2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR11+0.009%
Seahawks1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10+0.5560%
Vikings1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Seahawks1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Vikings2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR2——
Vikings0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR2——
snapsepapass rate
181 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
181 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter34 plays
Vikings6Seahawks0
Vikings7Seahawks0
Touchdown14 plays, from the Vikings 23 to the Seahawks 8
Punt11 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Vikings 28
The period ended8 plays, from the Vikings 2 to the Vikings 34
2nd quarter45 plays
Vikings10Seahawks0
Field goal12 plays, from the Vikings 41 to the Seahawks 34
Punt7 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Seahawks 42
Punt4 plays, from the Vikings 12 to the Vikings 21
Punt5 plays
Vikings13Seahawks0
Field goal12 plays, from the Vikings 15 to the Seahawks 28
The period ended5 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Seahawks 37
3rd quarter50 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Seahawks 34
Punt4 plays, from the Vikings 15 to the Vikings 16
Vikings13Seahawks6
Vikings13Seahawks7
Touchdown5 plays, from the Seahawks 42 to the Vikings 19
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFour
Fumble lost5 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Vikings 28
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
Vikings13Seahawks13
Vikings13Seahawks14
Touchdown3 plays, from the Vikings 15 to the Vikings 13
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.1 seconds
Intercepted2 plays
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Vikings13Seahawks20
Vikings13Seahawks21
Touchdown2 plays
Vikings19Seahawks21
Touchdown13 plays, from the Vikings 23 to the Seahawks 3
Punt9 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Vikings 40
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter52 plays
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.2 seconds
Vikings25Seahawks21
Vikings26Seahawks21
Touchdown17 plays, from the Vikings 5 to the Seahawks 6
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw5.0 seconds
Intercepted6 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Seahawks 38
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldTwo backs, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxEight defenders
Turnover on downs10 plays, from midfield to the Seahawks 6
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.2 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw6.8 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.9 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.8 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.0 seconds
Vikings26Seahawks27
Touchdown15 plays, from the Seahawks 6 to the Vikings 6
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFour
The period ended4 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Vikings 35
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Seahawks -6.5
Closing total
54
Vikings moneyline
+245
Seahawks moneyline
-284
Seahawks closed -6.5, won by 1 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 54; the game landed 53 — under by 1.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
CenturyLink Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Cool, 56°F at kickoff; a real wind at 20 mph out of the south; 0.21 in of precipitation; slight rain.
Referee
Tony Corrente
Rest
Vikings 7 days · Seahawks 7 days
Coaches
Mike Zimmer vs Pete Carroll
NoteWind at 20 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.
3rd · 8:19MIN +15% win prob(8:19) 8-K.Cousins pass short right intended for 18-J.Jefferson INTERCEPTED by 50-K.Wright at MIN 36. 50-K.Wright to MIN 29 for 7 yards (18-J.Jefferson).
4th · 7:13SEA +13% win prob(7:13) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 19-A.Thielen for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA-26-Sq.Griffin was injured during the play.
