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Dallas Cowboys 37, Giants 34 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q2 5:08, 1st and 10, on Daniel Jones — 24.4 win-probability points to the Cowboys on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 5:08 · 1st and 10
Daniel Jones
Cowboys
(5:08) 8-D.Jones sacked at NYG 27 for -10 yards (90-D.Lawrence). FUMBLES (90-D.Lawrence) [90-D.Lawrence], RECOVERED by DAL-30-A.Brown at NYG 29. 30-A.Brown for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Dome
Cowboys closed -7.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.
Dallas Cowboys 37–34 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q2 5:08, Cowboys +24.4% win probability on one snap.
24.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Kyler FackrellGiantsQ1 6:01(6:01) 4-D.Prescott pass short left intended for 21-E.Elliott INTERCEPTED by 51-K.Fackrell at DAL 46. 51-K.Fackrell for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
21.7pts
Unnamed on the sheetGiantsQ4 11:03(11:03) 14-A.Dalton FUMBLES (Aborted) at DAL 19, RECOVERED by NYG-54-B.Martinez at DAL 17.
18.2pts
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Cowboys won this one — 58% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Giants at 44% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Cowboys won this one — 6 chunk plays, against Giants at 3 chunk plays.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Giants owned this one and still lost it — 1 giveaway, against Cowboys at 2 giveaways.
Giantsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Giants owned this one and still lost it — +0.04 expected points per carry, against Cowboys at -0.07 expected points per carry.
Giantsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 12.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 25 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Giants.
MarketModelmodel higher on Cowboyshigher on Giants170 of 181 plays carry both curves
(5:08) 8-D.Jones sacked at NYG 27 for -10 yards (90-D.Lawrence). FUMBLES (90-D.Lawrence) [90-D.Lawrence], RECOVERED by DAL-30-A.Brown at NYG 29. 30-A.Brown for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +24.4 for CowboysExpected points +8.77 for CowboysThe model had Giants 14 points higher than the market did.play 70
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 5:08NYG +24% win prob(5:08) 8-D.Jones sacked at NYG 27 for -10 yards (90-D.Lawrence). FUMBLES (90-D.Lawrence) [90-D.Lawrence], RECOVERED by DAL-30-A.Brown at NYG 29. 30-A.Brown for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 6:01NYG +22% win prob(6:01) 4-D.Prescott pass short left intended for 21-E.Elliott INTERCEPTED by 51-K.Fackrell at DAL 46. 51-K.Fackrell for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 11:03NYG +18% win prob(11:03) 14-A.Dalton FUMBLES (Aborted) at DAL 19, RECOVERED by NYG-54-B.Martinez at DAL 17.
4th · 0:31DAL +17% win prob(:31) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass deep right to 13-M.Gallup to NYG 16 for 38 yards (37-R.Lewis). The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
4th · 8:51DAL +13% win prob(8:51) 31-D.Freeman left tackle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 3:16NYG +12% win prob(3:16) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short left to 20-T.Pollard to NYG 32 for -7 yards (51-K.Fackrell).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Greg Zuerlein's 34-yard field goal with 0:03 left in the 4th put Dallas Cowboys ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st11:23Greg Zuerlein·24-yd field goal24-yard field goalholder C.Jones · snap L.Ladouceur+30–3
4th2:00Greg Zuerlein·40-yd field goal40-yard field goalholder C.Jones · snap L.Ladouceur+334–34
4th0:03Greg Zuerlein·34-yd field goal34-yard field goalholder C.Jones · snap L.LadouceurLead never changed again+334–37
14 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Giantscategory by categoryCowboys
Giants1–7Cowboys
303Total yards402
4.9Yards per play6.3
44%Success rate58%
54%Third-down rate56%
2Red-zone touchdowns3
3Explosive plays6
19First downs24
2Sacks taken2
1Turnovers2
The read
Cowboys ahead 7–1 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Giants, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.00Giants: +0.00 expected points added per play
+0.03Cowboys: +0.03 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.03Giants: −0.03 expected points added per play
+0.11Cowboys: +0.11 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.04Giants: +0.04 expected points added per play
−0.07Cowboys: −0.07 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Giants ran 62 snaps at a 58% dropback rate against Cowboys’s 64 at 55%. Red-zone trips: Giants 3, Cowboys 5.
NoteCowboys won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.03 expected points added per play vs 0.00.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 7 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
DAL's early-down pass rate turned over: 80.3% in week 4 against 49.1% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.7 of their own weekly swings across the two.
55 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.4 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 17 pts
inside their normal wobble · −4.4 vs their 15.8%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (−0.70× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Cowboys25.0%
leaned — got home · +12.1 vs their 12.9%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (+1.65× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteDAL's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 25.0%, 12.1 points above their season mean of 12.9% and 1.7 times their own 7.3-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Cowboys attack right, the Giants attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Giants←Cowboys→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Jones sacked−26% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(5:08) 8-D.Jones sacked at NYG 27 for -10 yards (90-D.Lawrence). FUMBLES (90-D.Lawrence) [90-D.Lawrence], RECOVERED by DAL-30-A.Brown at NYG 29. 30-A.Brown for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 5:08 · Giants · 1st & 10 at NYG 37 · lost 8 · -8.77 EP · −25.8% win probability
168 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 181 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 181 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
12 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was DAL moving 79 yards from the DAL 21 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DAL attacks right, NYG attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
181 of 181 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
181
EPA per play
+0.05
Success rate
47%
Yards
704
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Cowboys1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR47+0.3168%
Giants1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR34+0.1874%
Giants1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR16-0.0525%
Cowboys1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12-1.2017%
Giants1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR5+0.2960%
Giants2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Giants1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Cowboys1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR2——
Cowboys2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR2——
Giants1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Giants1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Cowboys2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
181 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
181 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter43 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
Giants0Cowboys3
Field goal12 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Giants 4
Giants6Cowboys3
Giants7Cowboys3
Touchdown11 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Cowboys 3
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runAngleCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.6 seconds
Giants13Cowboys3
Touchdown4 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Cowboys 40
Giants14Cowboys3
Punt5 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Cowboys 27
The period ended9 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Cowboys 44
2nd quarter54 plays
Giants17Cowboys3
Field goal4 plays, from the Cowboys 40 to the Cowboys 37
Giants17Cowboys9
Giants17Cowboys10
Touchdown18 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Giants 1
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldSix linemen, one back, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFive linemen, two linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFive
Giants17Cowboys16
Touchdown5 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Giants 37
Giants17Cowboys17
Giants20Cowboys17
Field goal13 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Cowboys 27
Giants20Cowboys23
Giants20Cowboys24
Touchdown9 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Giants 11
The period ended4 plays
3rd quarter40 plays
Giants23Cowboys24
Field goal14 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Cowboys 31
Giants23Cowboys30
Giants23Cowboys31
Touchdown13 plays, from the Cowboys 21 to the Giants 12
Punt6 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Cowboys 29 to the Cowboys 37
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter44 plays
Giants26Cowboys31
Field goal8 plays, from the Giants 28 to the Cowboys 10
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxEight defenders
Fumble lost2 plays
Giants32Cowboys31
Giants34Cowboys31
Touchdown6 plays, from the Cowboys 17 to the Cowboys 4
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.9 seconds
Giants34Cowboys34
Field goal13 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Giants 22
Punt7 plays, from the Giants 24 to the Giants 39
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
Giants34Cowboys37
Field goal7 plays, from the Cowboys 12 to the Giants 16
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Cowboys -7.5
Closing total
52
Giants moneyline
+293
Cowboys moneyline
-347
Cowboys closed -7.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 52; the game landed 71 — over by 19.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
AT&T Stadium
Roof / surface
closed · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Craig Wrolstad
Rest
Giants 7 days · Cowboys 7 days
Coaches
Joe Judge vs Mike McCarthy
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
2nd · 0:28DAL +10% win prob(:28) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep middle to 88-C.Lamb to NYG 22 for 21 yards (34-A.Colbert). PENALTY on NYG-34-A.Colbert, Unnecessary Roughness, 11 yards, enforced at NYG 22.
4th · 1:07NYG +10% win prob(1:07) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass incomplete short right to 33-D.Lewis.
Giantscategory by categoryCowboys
Giants0
Cowboys3
