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DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 10:27 AM ET · 14 to play · 2 final
Philadelphia Eagles 29 at Pittsburgh Steelers 38. Final.
Steelers -7.5 ✓O 44 ✓
The verdict · 2020 Week 5
Pittsburgh Steelers 38, Eagles 29 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 6:29, 3rd and 21, on Eric Ebron — 13.9 win-probability points to the Eagles on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
Steelers closed -7.5 and covered, winning by 9.
Pittsburgh Steelers 38–29. Biggest swing: Q4 6:29, Eagles +13.9% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 6:29 · 3rd and 21
Eric Ebron
Eagles
(6:29) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short middle to 85-E.Ebron to PHI 39 for 12 yards (50-D.Riley). FUMBLES (50-D.Riley), RECOVERED by PHI-34-C.LeBlanc at PHI 39. 34-C.LeBlanc to PHI 45 for 6 yards (30-J.Conner).
13.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Miles SandersEaglesQ1 0:19(:19) (Shotgun) 26-M.Sanders up the middle for 74 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
12.5pts
Jake ElliottSteelersQ4 3:23(3:23) 4-J.Elliott 57 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston.
13.9pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Steelers won this one — 1 giveaway, against Eagles at 2 giveaways.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Steelers won this one — +0.38 expected points per dropback, against Eagles at +0.13 expected points per dropback.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Eagles owned this one and still lost it — +0.17 expected points per carry, against Steelers at +0.03 expected points per carry.
Eaglesthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Red zone
Eagles owned this one and still lost it — 3 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Steelers at 3 touchdowns on 5 trips.
Eaglesthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
4 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 9.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 21 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Eagles.
MarketModelmodel higher on Steelershigher on Eagles167 of 178 plays carry both curves
(6:29) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short middle to 85-E.Ebron to PHI 39 for 12 yards (50-D.Riley). FUMBLES (50-D.Riley), RECOVERED by PHI-34-C.LeBlanc at PHI 39. 34-C.LeBlanc to PHI 45 for 6 yards (30-J.Conner).
Swing −13.9 for SteelersExpected points −3.15 for SteelersThe model had Eagles 4 points higher than the market did.play 152
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 6:29PHI +14% win prob(6:29) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short middle to 85-E.Ebron to PHI 39 for 12 yards (50-D.Riley). FUMBLES (50-D.Riley), RECOVERED by PHI-34-C.LeBlanc at PHI 39. 34-C.LeBlanc to PHI 45 for 6 yards (30-J.Conner).
4th · 3:23PHI +14% win prob(3:23) 4-J.Elliott 57 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston.
1st · 0:19PIT +13% win prob(:19) (Shotgun) 26-M.Sanders up the middle for 74 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 3:04PIT +13% win prob(3:04) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass deep middle to 11-C.Claypool for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 11:30PIT +11% win prob(11:30) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short middle to 13-T.Fulgham for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 3:27PHI +9% win prob(3:27) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass incomplete short right to 13-T.Fulgham (23-J.Haden).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Chris Boswell's 41-yard field goal with 2:00 left in the 2nd put Pittsburgh Steelers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
4th3:04Chase Claypool·35-yd TD catch35-yard touchdown catchfrom Ben Roethlisbergerfrom Ben Roethlisberger+729–38
10 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Eaglescategory by categorySteelers
Eagles2–5Steelers
338Total yards369
5.8Yards per play5.7
41%Success rate40%
71%Third-down rate73%
3Red-zone touchdowns3
4Explosive plays4
19First downs20
5Sacks taken1
2Turnovers1
The read
Steelers ahead 5–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.38 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.14Eagles: +0.14 expected points added per play
+0.22Steelers: +0.22 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.13Eagles: +0.13 expected points added per play
+0.38Steelers: +0.38 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.17Eagles: +0.17 expected points added per play
+0.03Steelers: +0.03 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Eagles ran 58 snaps at a 76% dropback rate against Steelers’s 65 at 54%. Red-zone trips: Eagles 4, Steelers 5.
NoteSteelers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.22 expected points added per play vs 0.14.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Too few to read
2 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
PHI's early-down pass rate, 73.8%, is past their previous high of 70.6% in week 1 — the highest of their 5 charted games through week 5.
A 2.6-swing turn from week 4.
42 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.1 points. · +1.2σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -20 pts to 33 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −12.1 vs their 17.8%, and they swing ±8.1 week to week (−1.48× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Steelers22.7%
right on their number · −0.4 vs their 23.1%, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (−0.05× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NotePHI's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 5.7%, 12.1 points below their season mean of 17.8% and 1.5 times their own 8.1-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Steelers attack right, the Eagles attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Eagles←Steelers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
Jake Elliott−19% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(3:23) 4-J.Elliott 57 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston.
Q4 3:23 · Eagles · 4th & 5 at PIT 39 · gained nothing · -2.27 EP · −18.6% win probability
165 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 178 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 178 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was PHI moving 80 yards from the PHI 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; PIT attacks right, PHI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
178 of 178 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
178
EPA per play
+0.13
Success rate
38%
Yards
705
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Eagles1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR33+0.2273%
Steelers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR33+0.0661%
Eagles1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR13-0.1992%
Steelers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11+0.6664%
Eagles1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR7+0.1543%
Steelers0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR6+0.62100%
Steelers1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6-0.2617%
Steelers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Steelers1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Eagles1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Steelers1 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Eagles1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Eagles2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
178 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
178 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter43 plays
Punt5 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Steelers 46 to the Eagles 43
Punt4 plays, from the Eagles 14 to the Eagles 19
Eagles0Steelers6
Eagles0Steelers7
Touchdown17 plays, from the Steelers 38 to the Eagles 1
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsIn the boxSix defenders
Eagles6Steelers7
Eagles7Steelers7
Touchdown5 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Eagles 26
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter46 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.9 seconds
Eagles7Steelers13
Eagles7Steelers14
Touchdown7 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Eagles 32
Eagles13Steelers14
Eagles14Steelers14
Touchdown13 plays, from the Eagles 24 to the Steelers 1
Eagles14Steelers17
Field goal12 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Eagles 23
The period ended14 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Steelers 49
3rd quarter43 plays
Eagles14Steelers23
Eagles14Steelers24
Touchdown8 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Eagles 5
Intercepted3 plays
Eagles14Steelers30
Eagles14Steelers31
Touchdown7 plays, from the Eagles 23 to the Eagles 1
Eagles20Steelers31
Eagles22Steelers31
Touchdown10 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Steelers 5
Punt10 plays, from the Steelers 18 to the Steelers 37
The period ended5 plays, from the Eagles 20 to the Eagles 40
4th quarter46 plays
Eagles28Steelers31
Eagles29Steelers31
Touchdown8 plays, from the Steelers 41 to the Steelers 4
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.3 seconds
Fumble lost12 plays, from the Steelers 24 to the Eagles 40
No good7 plays, from the Eagles 45 to the Steelers 39
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne tight end and four receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Eagles29Steelers37
Eagles29Steelers38
Touchdown7 plays, from the Steelers 47 to the Eagles 35
Intercepted5 plays
The period ended7 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Steelers 36
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Eaglescategory by categorySteelers
Eagles0
Steelers6
