2020 Week 5 · Thu, Oct 8, 2020 · Soldier Field

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Chicago BearsWinner

TB -3.5 upsetU 44 ✓Buccaneers closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Chicago Bears 20–19 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:38, TB +23% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 0:38TB — CHI TB ball · 4th & 6CHI 73%

(:38) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass incomplete deep middle to 84-C.Brate (36-D.Houston-Carson).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 0:38TB +23% win prob(:38) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass incomplete deep middle to 84-C.Brate (36-D.Houston-Carson).
Q1 · 3:37TB +16% win prob(3:37) (Shotgun) 9-N.Foles pass deep right intended for 12-A.Robinson INTERCEPTED by 24-C.Davis at TB 16. 24-C.Davis pushed ob at 50 for 34 yards (70-B.Massie).
Q4 · 8:42CHI +16% win prob(8:42) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 87-R.Gronkowski to CHI 27 for 23 yards (39-E.Jackson; 50-B.Mingo).
Q4 · 1:42CHI +13% win prob(1:42) (Shotgun) 9-N.Foles pass short left to 32-D.Montgomery pushed ob at TB 25 for 17 yards (31-A.Winfield).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Buccaneers	Bears
Offensive plays	63	58
Total yards	340 (edge)	244
Yards per play	5.4 (edge)	4.2
Expected points added / play	-0.01 (edge)	-0.12
Success rate	35%	40% (edge)
Dropback rate	70%	78%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.06 (edge)	-0.10
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.09 (edge)	-0.19
Third downs	4/14	3/10 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6 (edge)	2
First downs gained on snaps	15	16 (edge)
Sacks taken	3	3
Turnovers	1	1

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · TB

Tom BradyQB

25/41, 253 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

0.3 expected points added · -3.4% completion over expected

Passing · CHI

Nick FolesQB

30/42, 243 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-4.6 expected points added · +3.0% completion over expected

Rushing · TB

Ronald JonesRB

17 att, 106 yds, 0 TD

0.6 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CHI

David MontgomeryRB

10 att, 29 yds, 1 TD

-1.9 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CHI

Allen RobinsonWR

10/16 for 90 yds, 0 TD

38% of team targets · -6.6 expected points added

Receiving · TB

Tyler JohnsonWR

4/6 for 61 yds, 0 TD

15% of team targets · 2.4 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	TB	TB 25	12	64	5:12	Turnover on downs
2	CHI	CHI 24	7	20	2:41	Punt
3	TB	TB 15	4	4	1:28	Punt
4	CHI	CHI 25	4	39	2:12	Interception
5	TB	50	6	52	2:31	Touchdown
6	CHI	CHI 38	7	14	1:57	Punt
7	TB	TB 10	13	52	6:56	Turnover on downs
8	CHI	CHI 25	12	70	5:15	Touchdown
9	TB	TB 25	4	1	0:17	Fumble
10	CHI	TB 27	5	27	0:55	Touchdown
11	TB	TB 25	5	14	0:36	End of half
12	CHI	CHI 31	5	12	2:45	Punt
13	TB	TB 32	5	50	3:11	Turnover on downs
14	CHI	CHI 25	5	-8	1:48	Punt
15	TB	50	7	33	4:29	Punt
16	CHI	CHI 12	12	45	7:13	Turnover on downs
17	TB	TB 27	11	56	5:45	Turnover on downs
18	CHI	CHI 25	7	-7	2:01	Punt
19	TB	TB 16	4	-2	0:27	Punt
20	CHI	CHI 48	9	32	1:08	Turnover on downs
21	TB	TB 25	6	16	0:40	Turnover on downs
22	CHI	TB 41	1	0	0:33	End of game

0 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bears gained 70 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Tom Brady	25/41	253	1	0	3	0.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Ronald Jones	17	106	6.2	0	0.6
Tom Brady	3	0	0.0	0	1.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Tyler Johnson	4	6	61	0	15%	2.4
Rob Gronkowski	3	6	52	0	15%	2.4
Cameron Brate	5	6	44	0	15%	2.5
Mike Evans	5	9	41	1	22%	-0.8
Jaydon Mickens	2	2	22	0	5%	1.0
Ronald Jones	3	5	19	0	12%	-0.6
Tanner Hudson	1	4	9	0	10%	-0.5
Ke'Shawn Vaughn	2	3	5	0	7%	-4.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Carlton Davis	7	0	0.0	1	2
Sean Murphy-Bunting	6	1	0.0	0	0
Jordan Whitehead	2	4	0.0	0	0
Lavonte David	3	2	0.0	0	0
Jason Pierre-Paul	3	1	1.0	0	0
Ndamukong Suh	1	3	0.0	0	1
Antoine Winfield	3	1	0.0	0	1
Jamel Dean	2	1	0.0	0	4
Devin White	1	2	0.0	0	0
Vita Vea	2	1	1.0	0	0

Chicago Bears

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Nick Foles	30/42	243	1	1	3	-4.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
David Montgomery	10	29	2.9	1	-1.9
Cordarrelle Patterson	3	7	2.3	0	-0.6
Nick Foles	1	-1	-1.0	0	-1.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Allen Robinson	10	16	90	0	38%	-6.6
Cordarrelle Patterson	3	3	38	0	7%	3.5
Jimmy Graham	3	5	33	1	12%	3.3
David Montgomery	7	8	30	0	19%	-0.4
Anthony Miller	4	4	28	0	10%	1.1
Darnell Mooney	2	5	15	0	12%	-0.5
Demetrius Harris	1	1	9	0	2%	0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Danny Trevathan	7	1	0.0	1
Roquan Smith	6	1	0.0	2
Kyle Fuller	6	0	0.0	0
Eddie Jackson	2	2	0.0	0
Tashaun Gipson	4	0	0.0	0
Khalil Mack	2	1	2.0	1
Buster Skrine	3	0	0.0	0
Akiem Hicks	2	1	0.0	1
James Vaughters	2	0	1.0	0
Roy Robertson-Harris	1	1	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: TB -3.5
Closing total: 44
TB moneyline: -184
CHI moneyline: +164

Buccaneers closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 44; the game landed 39 — under by 5.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Soldier Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 57°F, wind 7 mph
Referee: Alex Kemp
Rest: TB 4 days · CHI 4 days
Coaches: Bruce Arians vs Matt Nagy