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Tampa Bay Buccaneers 19 at Chicago Bears 20. Final.
Buccaneers -3.5 upset
The verdict · 2020 Week 5
Chicago Bears 20, Buccaneers 19 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 0:38, 4th and 6, on Tom Brady — 23.0 win-probability points to the Bears on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:38 · 4th and 6
Tom Brady
Bears
(:38) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass incomplete deep middle to 84-C.Brate (36-D.Houston-Carson).
U 44 ✓
Buccaneers closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Chicago Bears 20–19 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:38, Bears +23.0% win probability on one snap.
23.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Carlton DavisBuccaneersQ1 3:37(3:37) (Shotgun) 9-N.Foles pass deep right intended for 12-A.Robinson INTERCEPTED by 24-C.Davis at TB 16. 24-C.Davis pushed ob at 50 for 34 yards (70-B.Massie).
15.6pts
Rob GronkowskiBuccaneersQ4 8:42(8:42) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 87-R.Gronkowski to CHI 27 for 23 yards (39-E.Jackson; 50-B.Mingo).
15.5pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Buccaneers owned this one and still lost it — 6 chunk plays, against Bears at 2 chunk plays.
Buccaneersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Buccaneers owned this one and still lost it — +0.09 expected points per carry, against Bears at -0.19 expected points per carry.
Buccaneersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Bears won this one — 40% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Buccaneers at 35% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Bearsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Bears won this one — 2 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Buccaneers at 1 touchdown on 3 trips.
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 10.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 21 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bears.
MarketModelmodel higher on Bearshigher on Buccaneers168 of 179 plays carry both curves
(:38) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass incomplete deep middle to 84-C.Brate (36-D.Houston-Carson).
Swing +23.0 for BearsExpected points +1.71 for BearsModel and market agree here.play 176
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:38TB +23% win prob(:38) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass incomplete deep middle to 84-C.Brate (36-D.Houston-Carson).
1st · 3:37TB +16% win prob(3:37) (Shotgun) 9-N.Foles pass deep right intended for 12-A.Robinson INTERCEPTED by 24-C.Davis at TB 16. 24-C.Davis pushed ob at 50 for 34 yards (70-B.Massie).
4th · 8:42CHI +16% win prob(8:42) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 87-R.Gronkowski to CHI 27 for 23 yards (39-E.Jackson; 50-B.Mingo).
4th · 1:42CHI +13% win prob(1:42) (Shotgun) 9-N.Foles pass short left to 32-D.Montgomery pushed ob at TB 25 for 17 yards (31-A.Winfield).
4th · 1:54CHI +12% win prob(1:54) (Shotgun) 9-N.Foles pass short left to 17-A.Miller ran ob at TB 41 for 10 yards (23-S.Murphy-Bunting).
2nd · 0:41CHI +12% win prob(:41) (Shotgun) 9-N.Foles pass short left to 80-J.Graham for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Cairo Santos's 38-yard field goal with 1:17 left in the 4th put Chicago Bears ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st9:52Ryan Succop·39-yd field goal39-yard field goalholder B.Pinion · snap Z.Triner+33–0
1st0:59Mike Evans·2-yd TD catch2-yard touchdown catchfrom Tom Bradyfrom Tom Brady+710–0
2nd7:08Ryan Succop·35-yd field goal35-yard field goalholder B.Pinion · snap Z.Triner+313–0
2nd0:41Jimmy Graham·12-yd TD catch12-yard touchdown catchfrom Nick Folesfrom Nick Foles+713–14
3rd9:09Ryan Succop·46-yd field goal46-yard field goalholder B.Pinion · snap Z.Triner+316–14
4th10:38Cairo Santos·47-yd field goal47-yard field goalholder P.O'Donnell · snap P.Scales+316–17
4th4:52Ryan Succop·25-yd field goal25-yard field goalholder B.Pinion · snap Z.Triner+319–17
4th1:17Cairo Santos·38-yd field goal38-yard field goalholder P.O'Donnell · snap P.ScalesLead never changed again+319–20
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Buccaneerscategory by categoryBears
Buccaneers3–4Bears
340Total yards244
5.4Yards per play4.2
35%Success rate40%
29%Third-down rate30%
1Red-zone touchdowns2
6Explosive plays2
15First downs16
3Sacks taken3
1Turnovers1
The read
Bears ahead 4–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Buccaneers, in explosive plays.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.01Buccaneers: −0.01 expected points added per play
−0.12Bears: −0.12 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.06Buccaneers: −0.06 expected points added per play
−0.10Bears: −0.10 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.09Buccaneers: +0.09 expected points added per play
−0.19Bears: −0.19 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Buccaneers ran 63 snaps at a 70% dropback rate against Bears’s 58 at 78%. Red-zone trips: Buccaneers 3, Bears 4.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 5Against their seasonOver Expected
CHI's pass rate over expected, +10.5 pts, is past their previous high of +6.0 pts in week 4 — the highest of their 5 charted games through week 5.
58 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.1 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -16 pts to 29 pts
right on their number · −1.4 vs their 17.0%, and they swing ±7.8 week to week (−0.18× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
Bears18.2%
inside their normal wobble · +3.9 vs their 14.3%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (+0.54× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteCHI's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 10.5 pts, 10.1 points above their season mean of 0.4 pts and 1.6 times their own 6.1-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bears attack right, the Buccaneers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Buccaneers←Bears→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
N.Foles pass−23% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(3:37) (Shotgun) 9-N.Foles pass deep right intended for 12-A.Robinson INTERCEPTED by 24-C.Davis at TB 16. 24-C.Davis pushed ob at 50 for 34 yards (70-B.Massie).
Q1 3:37 · Bears · 1st & 10 at TB 36 · gained nothing · -6.33 EP · −22.7% win probability
166 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 179 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 179 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was CHI moving 75 yards from the CHI 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CHI attacks right, TB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
179 of 179 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
179
EPA per play
-0.02
Success rate
37%
Yards
582
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR38-0.0571%
Bears1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR29-0.4183%
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR16+0.2463%
Bears1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10+0.1970%
Bears1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR6+0.1550%
Bears0 RB, 3 TE, 2 WR6+0.2483%
Buccaneers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR5-0.4960%
Buccaneers0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR4——
Bears0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR4——
Bears2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Bears0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
179 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
179 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
Buccaneers3Bears0
Field goal13 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Bears 21
Punt7 plays, from the Bears 24 to the Bears 44
Punt4 plays, from the Buccaneers 15 to the Buccaneers 19
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
Intercepted4 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Buccaneers 36
Buccaneers9Bears0
Buccaneers10Bears0
Touchdown6 plays, from midfield to the Bears 2
The period ended4 plays, from the Bears 38 to the Bears 46
2nd quarter52 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Bears 48 to the Buccaneers 48
Buccaneers13Bears0
Field goal17 plays, from the Buccaneers 10 to the Bears 17
Buccaneers13Bears6
Buccaneers13Bears7
Touchdown13 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Buccaneers 3
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.1 seconds
Fumble lost4 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.1 seconds
Buccaneers13Bears13
Buccaneers13Bears14
Touchdown6 plays, from the Buccaneers 27 to the Buccaneers 12
The period ended7 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Buccaneers 39
3rd quarter33 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Bears 31 to the Bears 33
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Buccaneers16Bears14
Field goal6 plays, from the Buccaneers 32 to the Bears 28
Punt5 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Bears 26
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw5.6 seconds
Punt10 plays, from midfield to the Bears 35
The period ended6 plays, from the Bears 12 to the Bears 43
4th quarter55 plays
Buccaneers16Bears17
Field goal9 plays, from the Bears 47 to the Buccaneers 15
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Buccaneers19Bears17
Field goal12 plays, from the Buccaneers 27 to the Bears 7
Punt8 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Bears 33
Punt5 plays
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runWheelCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.0 seconds
Buccaneers19Bears20
Field goal12 plays, from the Bears 48 to the Buccaneers 20
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.9 seconds
Turnover on downs6 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Buccaneers 41
The period ended3 plays, from the Buccaneers 41 to the Buccaneers 36
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Buccaneers -3.5
Closing total
44
Buccaneers moneyline
-184
Bears moneyline
+164
Buccaneers closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 44; the game landed 39 — under by 5.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Soldier Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Cool, 57°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 9 mph out of the east; clear.
Referee
Alex Kemp
Rest
Buccaneers 4 days · Bears 4 days
Coaches
Bruce Arians vs Matt Nagy
4th · 14:15
CHI +12% win prob
(14:15) (Shotgun) 9-N.Foles pass incomplete deep left to 12-A.Robinson. PENALTY on TB-24-C.Davis, Defensive Pass Interference, 19 yards, enforced at TB 49 - No Play.
4th · 10:38CHI +11% win prob(10:38) 2-C.Santos 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.
