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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 2:36 AM ET · 16 to play
Arizona Cardinals 38, Cowboys 10 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 2:44, 2nd and 9, on Ezekiel Elliott — 11.2 win-probability points to the Cardinals on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 2:44 · 2nd and 9
Ezekiel Elliott
Cardinals
(2:44) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short middle to 21-E.Elliott to ARI 49 for no gain (32-B.Baker). FUMBLES (32-B.Baker), RECOVERED by ARI-97-J.Phillips at ARI 46.
Dome
Cowboys closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Arizona Cardinals 38–10 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 2:44, Cardinals +11.2% win probability on one snap.
11.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Christian KirkCardinalsQ2 13:04(13:04) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short middle to 13-C.Kirk for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Short shovel pass to Kirk in the backfield
7.6pts
Ezekiel ElliottCardinalsQ2 12:19(12:19) 21-E.Elliott left tackle to DAL 28 for 2 yards (97-J.Phillips). FUMBLES (97-J.Phillips), RECOVERED by ARI-33-B.Murphy at DAL 30. 33-B.Murphy to DAL 27 for 3 yards (86-D.Schultz; 52-C.Williams).
7.5pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Cardinals won this one — no giveaways, against Cowboys at 4 giveaways.
Cardinalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Cardinals won this one — +0.47 expected points per carry, against Cowboys at -0.24 expected points per carry.
Cardinalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Cardinals won this one — +0.32 expected points per snap, against Cowboys at -0.18 expected points per snap.
Cardinalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Cardinals won this one — 10 chunk plays, against Cowboys at 5 chunk plays.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 1.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 10 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Cowboys.
MarketModelmodel higher on Cowboyshigher on Cardinals183 of 191 plays carry both curves
(2:44) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short middle to 21-E.Elliott to ARI 49 for no gain (32-B.Baker). FUMBLES (32-B.Baker), RECOVERED by ARI-97-J.Phillips at ARI 46.
Swing −11.2 for CowboysExpected points −4.89 for CowboysThe model had Cowboys 5 points higher than the market did.play 40
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 2:44ARI +11% win prob(2:44) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short middle to 21-E.Elliott to ARI 49 for no gain (32-B.Baker). FUMBLES (32-B.Baker), RECOVERED by ARI-97-J.Phillips at ARI 46.
2nd · 13:04DAL +8% win prob(13:04) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short middle to 13-C.Kirk for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Short shovel pass to Kirk in the backfield
2nd · 12:19ARI +8% win prob(12:19) 21-E.Elliott left tackle to DAL 28 for 2 yards (97-J.Phillips). FUMBLES (97-J.Phillips), RECOVERED by ARI-33-B.Murphy at DAL 30. 33-B.Murphy to DAL 27 for 3 yards (86-D.Schultz; 52-C.Williams).
2nd · 14:10DAL +7% win prob(14:10) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray left end ran ob at DAL 7 for 11 yards (25-X.Woods).
1st · 2:27DAL +6% win prob(2:27) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray scrambles left end to DAL 44 for 10 yards (54-J.Smith).
1st · 14:13DAL +6% win prob(14:13) 4-A.Lee punts 49 yards to DAL 27, Center-46-A.Brewer. 88-C.Lamb to DAL 28 for 1 yard (16-T.Sherfield).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Christian Kirk's 6-yard touchdown catch with 13:04 left in the 2nd put Arizona Cardinals ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Cardinals ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.47 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.32Cardinals: +0.32 expected points added per play
−0.18Cowboys: −0.18 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.15Cardinals: +0.15 expected points added per play
−0.15Cowboys: −0.15 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.47Cardinals: +0.47 expected points added per play
−0.24Cowboys: −0.24 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Cardinals ran 59 snaps at a 46% dropback rate against Cowboys’s 84 at 70%. Red-zone trips: Cardinals 6, Cowboys 3.
NoteCardinals won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.32 expected points added per play vs -0.18.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
DAL's sack or hit rate, 3.7%, was the lowest of the 28 team-games charted in week 6 — 1.4 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous low of 8.8% in week 1.
A 2.9-swing turn from week 5.
27 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.3 points.
ARI's early-down pass rate, 37.8%, is past their previous low of 53.8% in week 5 — the lowest of their 6 charted games through week 6.
2.0 times their own weekly swing below their number.
45 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.0 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 17 pts
right on their number · −3.1 vs their 16.6%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (−0.47× that swing) · 59 dropbacks
Cowboys3.7%
leaned — stayed blocked · −9.2 vs their 12.9%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (−1.26× that swing) · 27 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteARI's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 37.8%, 18.0 points below their season mean of 55.8% and 2.0 times their own 9.0-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Cowboys attack right, the Cardinals attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Cardinals←Cowboys→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
A.Dalton pass−10% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(2:44) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short middle to 21-E.Elliott to ARI 49 for no gain (32-B.Baker). FUMBLES (32-B.Baker), RECOVERED by ARI-97-J.Phillips at ARI 46.
Q1 2:44 · Cowboys · 2nd & 9 at ARI 49 · gained nothing · -4.89 EP · −10.2% win probability
181 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 191 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 191 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was ARI moving 82 yards from the ARI 10 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DAL attacks right, ARI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
191 of 191 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
191
EPA per play
-0.00
Success rate
39%
Yards
782
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Cowboys1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR72-0.2174%
Cardinals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR31+0.4352%
Cardinals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12+0.1625%
Cowboys1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7-0.3414%
Cardinals1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR6+0.2217%
Cardinals1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR5-0.3560%
Cardinals2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Cowboys1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR3——
Cardinals1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Cowboys1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
snapsepapass rate
191 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
191 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter47 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Cardinals 29
Punt4 plays, from the Cowboys 28 to the Cowboys 32
Punt11 plays, from the Cardinals 24 to the Cowboys 40
Punt5 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Cardinals 49 to the Cowboys 48
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runAngleCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.2 seconds
Fumble lost7 plays, from the Cowboys 26 to the Cardinals 49
The period ended7 plays, from the Cardinals 46 to the Cowboys 27
2nd quarter50 plays
Cardinals6Cowboys0
Cardinals7Cowboys0
Touchdown6 plays, from the Cowboys 21 to the Cowboys 6
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Cowboys 26
Cardinals13Cowboys0
Cardinals14Cowboys0
Touchdown6 plays, from the Cowboys 27 to the Cowboys 1
Punt13 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Cardinals 35
Cardinals20Cowboys0
Cardinals21Cowboys0
Touchdown2 plays
Cardinals21Cowboys3
Field goal17 plays, from the Cowboys 34 to the Cardinals 9
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter44 plays
Intercepted6 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Cardinals 42
Cardinals27Cowboys3
Cardinals28Cowboys3
Touchdown11 plays, from the Cardinals 21 to the Cowboys 1
No good11 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Cardinals 40
Punt7 plays, from the Cardinals 48 to the Cowboys 36
The period ended9 plays, from the Cowboys 14 to the Cardinals 40
4th quarter50 plays
Intercepted5 plays, from the Cardinals 47 to the Cardinals 16
Cardinals31Cowboys3
Field goal9 plays, from the Cardinals 10 to the Cowboys 8
Cardinals31Cowboys9
Cardinals31Cowboys10
Touchdown24 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Cardinals 1
Cardinals37Cowboys10
Cardinals38Cowboys10
Touchdown7 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Cardinals 31
The period ended5 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Cowboys 37
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
