2020 Week 6 · Sun, Oct 18, 2020 · U.S. Bank Stadium

Atlanta FalconsWinner

Minnesota Vikings

MIN -3.5 upsetO 53 ✓DomeVikings closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Atlanta Falcons 40–23 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 12:08, MIN +11% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 12:08ATL — MIN ATL ball · 3rd & 11ATL 50%

(12:08) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep left to 11-J.Jones for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 12:08MIN +11% win prob(12:08) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep left to 11-J.Jones for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 14:43MIN +10% win prob(14:43) 21-T.Gurley right end to MIN 20 for 9 yards (20-J.Gladney).
Q2 · 5:51ATL +8% win prob(5:51) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left intended for 18-J.Jefferson INTERCEPTED by 24-A.Terrell at MIN 40. 24-A.Terrell to MIN 40 for no gain.
Q2 · 1:15ATL +8% win prob(1:15) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle intended for 12-C.Beebe INTERCEPTED by 54-F.Oluokun (91-J.Tuioti-Mariner) at ATL 38. 54-F.Oluokun to MIN 48 for 14 yards (12-C.Beebe).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Falcons	Vikings
Offensive plays	78	52
Total yards	463 (edge)	369
Yards per play	5.9	7.1 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.18 (edge)	-0.11
Success rate	46%	48% (edge)
Dropback rate	56%	75%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.69 (edge)	0.03
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.47 (edge)	-0.54
Third downs	9/17 (edge)	3/10
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6 (edge)	5
First downs gained on snaps	23 (edge)	19
Sacks taken	2	1 (edge)
Turnovers	1 (edge)	3

Falcons won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.18 expected points added per play vs -0.11.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · ATL

Matt RyanQB

30/40, 371 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT

30.4 expected points added · +10.0% completion over expected

Passing · MIN

Kirk CousinsQB

24/36, 343 yds, 3 TD, 3 INT

1.3 expected points added · +3.1% completion over expected

Rushing · ATL

Todd GurleyRB

20 att, 47 yds, 0 TD

-5.9 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · ATL

Brian HillRB

10 att, 28 yds, 0 TD

-8.8 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · MIN

Justin JeffersonWR

9/11 for 166 yds, 2 TD

31% of team targets · 3.5 expected points added

Receiving · ATL

Julio JonesWR

8/10 for 137 yds, 2 TD

27% of team targets · 15.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	MIN	MIN 24	2	0	0:17	Interception
2	ATL	MIN 29	6	29	2:41	Touchdown
3	MIN	MIN 28	5	9	2:09	Punt
4	ATL	ATL 14	13	59	6:51	Turnover on downs
5	MIN	MIN 25	5	1	1:30	Punt
6	ATL	ATL 45	3	28	1:25	Fumble
7	MIN	MIN 24	8	74	3:26	Turnover on downs
8	ATL	ATL 2	9	24	4:35	Punt
9	MIN	MIN 16	4	17	1:20	Interception
10	ATL	MIN 40	8	40	3:52	Touchdown
11	MIN	MIN 25	5	26	0:48	Interception
12	ATL	MIN 48	9	46	1:05	Turnover on downs
13	MIN	MIN 25	2	3	0:01	End of half
14	ATL	ATL 16	11	51	4:15	Turnover on downs
15	MIN	MIN 25	11	80	4:20	Touchdown
16	ATL	ATL 31	10	69	4:24	Touchdown
17	MIN	MIN 25	5	1	1:29	Punt
18	ATL	ATL 28	7	27	4:13	Punt
19	MIN	MIN 25	4	4	0:39	Punt
20	ATL	ATL 33	8	42	3:33	Turnover on downs
21	MIN	MIN 25	10	72	3:09	Touchdown
22	ATL	MIN 44	6	44	1:47	Touchdown
23	MIN	MIN 20	5	82	0:45	Touchdown
24	ATL	MIN 49	3	4	1:26	End of game

0 of 24 drives ended in points. Longest march: Vikings gained 82 scrimmage yards over 5 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Atlanta Falcons

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Matt Ryan	30/40	371	4	0	2	30.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Todd Gurley	20	47	2.4	-5.9
Brian Hill	10	28	2.8	-8.8
Matt Ryan	4	8	2.0	-2.9
Calvin Ridley	1	8	8.0	0.7
Ito Smith	2	8	4.0	-1.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Julio Jones	8	10	137	2	27%	15.5
Russell Gage	4	4	65	0	11%	5.7
Calvin Ridley	6	7	61	1	19%	4.6
Hayden Hurst	4	4	57	1	11%	8.7
Todd Gurley	3	4	20	0	11%	3.0
Ito Smith	1	1	17	0	3%	0.9
Brian Hill	2	2	6	0	5%	-0.0
Christian Blake	1	2	5	0	5%	-1.5
Keith Smith	1	1	3	0	3%	-0.3
Olamide Zaccheaus	0	2	0	0	5%	-1.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Foyesade Oluokun	3	3	0.0	1	1
Kendall Sheffield	4	2	0.0	0	0
A.J. Terrell	5	1	0.0	1	1
Keanu Neal	5	1	0.0	0	0
Isaiah Oliver	2	2	0.0	0	1
Deion Jones	2	1	0.0	1	4
Allen Bailey	2	1	1.0	0	0
Edmond Robinson	1	2	0.0	0	0
Ricardo Allen	1	1	0.0	0	0
Dante Fowler	1	1	0.0	0	0

Minnesota Vikings

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Kirk Cousins	24/36	343	3	3	1	1.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Alexander Mattison	10	26	2.6	-3.8
Ameer Abdullah	2	7	3.5	1.1
Mike Boone	1	-1	-1.0	-4.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Justin Jefferson	9	11	166	2	31%	3.5
Irv Smith	4	5	55	0	14%	5.2
Adam Thielen	3	5	51	1	14%	3.7
Kyle Rudolph	3	4	47	0	11%	2.8
Chad Beebe	2	6	13	0	17%	-9.9
Mike Boone	1	1	6	0	3%	-0.1
Alexander Mattison	1	2	4	0	6%	-0.8
Ameer Abdullah	1	1	1	0	3%	-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Eric Kendricks	11	2	0.0	0
Cameron Dantzler	9	2	0.0	0
Jeff Gladney	7	1	0.0	0
Anthony Harris	4	3	0.0	1
Armon Watts	2	3	0.0	0
Harrison Hand	5	0	0.0	1
Ifeadi Odenigbo	1	3	1.5	0
Jalyn Holmes	2	2	0.0	0
Jaleel Johnson	0	3	0.5	0
Shamar Stephen	2	1	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: MIN -3.5
Closing total: 53
ATL moneyline: +167
MIN moneyline: -188

Vikings closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 53; the game landed 63 — over by 10.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: U.S. Bank Stadium
Roof / surface: dome · sportturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Craig Wrolstad
Rest: ATL 7 days · MIN 7 days
Coaches: Raheem Morris vs Mike Zimmer