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2020 Week 6 · Sun, Oct 18, 2020 · U.S. Bank Stadium
Final
FalconsAtlanta40
BY 17final margin
VikingsMinnesota23
Atlanta Falcons 40 at Minnesota Vikings 23. Final.
Vikings -3.5 upsetO 53 ✓
The verdict · 2020 Week 6
Atlanta Falcons 40, Vikings 23 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 12:08, 3rd and 11, on Julio Jones — 10.7 win-probability points to the Falcons on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 12:08 · 3rd and 11
Julio Jones
Falcons
(12:08) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep left to 11-J.Jones for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Dome
Vikings closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Atlanta Falcons 40–23 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 12:08, Falcons +10.7% win probability on one snap.
10.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Todd GurleyFalconsQ1 14:43(14:43) 21-T.Gurley right end to MIN 20 for 9 yards (20-J.Gladney).
10.3pts
A.J. TerrellFalconsQ2 5:51(5:51) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left intended for 18-J.Jefferson INTERCEPTED by 24-A.Terrell at MIN 40. 24-A.Terrell to MIN 40 for no gain.
8.3pts
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Falcons won this one — +0.69 expected points per dropback, against Vikings at +0.03 expected points per dropback.
Falconsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Falcons won this one — 1 giveaway, against Vikings at 3 giveaways.
Falconsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Falcons won this one — 9 of 17 on third down, against Vikings at 3 of 10 on third down.
Falconsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Falcons won this one — +0.18 expected points per snap, against Vikings at -0.11 expected points per snap.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 10 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Falcons.
MarketModelmodel higher on Vikingshigher on Falcons168 of 176 plays carry both curves
(12:08) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep left to 11-J.Jones for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −10.7 for VikingsExpected points −3.67 for VikingsThe model had Falcons 7 points higher than the market did.play 8
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 12:08MIN +11% win prob(12:08) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep left to 11-J.Jones for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 14:43MIN +10% win prob(14:43) 21-T.Gurley right end to MIN 20 for 9 yards (20-J.Gladney).
2nd · 5:51ATL +8% win prob(5:51) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left intended for 18-J.Jefferson INTERCEPTED by 24-A.Terrell at MIN 40. 24-A.Terrell to MIN 40 for no gain.
2nd · 1:15ATL +8% win prob(1:15) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle intended for 12-C.Beebe INTERCEPTED by 54-F.Oluokun (91-J.Tuioti-Mariner) at ATL 38. 54-F.Oluokun to MIN 48 for 14 yards (12-C.Beebe).
2nd · 11:44ATL +6% win prob(11:44) 23-M.Boone up the middle to ATL 2 for -1 yards (22-K.Neal).
1st · 14:55ATL +6% win prob(14:55) 8-K.Cousins pass deep right intended for 18-J.Jefferson INTERCEPTED by 45-D.Jones at MIN 46. 45-D.Jones pushed ob at MIN 29 for 17 yards (75-B.O'Neill).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Julio Jones's 20-yard touchdown catch with 12:08 left in the 1st put Atlanta Falcons ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 10 scores that followed.
Lead
1st12:08Julio Jones·20-yd TD catch20-yard touchdown catchfrom Matt Ryanfrom Matt RyanLead never changed again+77–0
1st3:08Younghoe Koo·50-yd field goal50-yard field goalholder S.Hofrichter · snap J.Harris+310–0
2nd2:00Calvin Ridley·8-yd TD catch8-yard touchdown catchfrom Matt Ryanfrom Matt Ryan+717–0
2nd0:05Younghoe Koo·21-yd field goal21-yard field goalholder S.Hofrichter · snap J.Harris+320–0
3rd10:50Younghoe Koo·47-yd field goal47-yard field goalholder S.Hofrichter · snap J.Harris+323–0
Falcons ahead 5–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.69 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.18Falcons: +0.18 expected points added per play
−0.11Vikings: −0.11 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.69Falcons: +0.69 expected points added per play
+0.03Vikings: +0.03 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.47Falcons: −0.47 expected points added per play
−0.54Vikings: −0.54 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Falcons ran 78 snaps at a 56% dropback rate against Vikings’s 52 at 75%. Red-zone trips: Falcons 6, Vikings 4.
NoteFalcons won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.18 expected points added per play vs -0.11.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekFourth Down
ATL's fourth-and-short go rate, 100.0%, was the highest of the 20 team-games charted in week 6 — 33.3 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of 80.0% in week 1.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 8 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 31.0 points.
MIN's early-down pass rate, 71.1%, is past their previous high of 59.5% in week 1 — the highest of their 6 charted games through week 6.
38 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 13.6 points.
high through week 6Against their seasonOver Expected
MIN's pass rate over expected, +3.1 pts, is past their previous high of −6.0 pts in week 1 — the highest of their 6 charted games through week 6.
50 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.3 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 16 pts
leaned — got home · +7.2 vs their 13.3%, and they swing ±5.7 week to week (+1.26× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Vikings11.4%
right on their number · +0.1 vs their 11.3%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (+0.01× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteATL's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 100.0%, 48.3 points above their season mean of 51.7% and 1.6 times their own 31.0-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Atlanta Falcons
47 dressed · 5 inactive · 2 never used
77James CarpenterG · Every snap100%80 snaps
76Kaleb McGaryT · Every snap100%80 snaps
70Jake MatthewsT · Every snap100%80 snaps
63Chris LindstromG · Every snap100%80 snaps
2Matt RyanQB · Every snap100%80 snaps
51Alex MackC · Every snap100%80 snaps
81Hayden HurstTE · Full-time85%68 snaps
11Julio JonesWR · Full-time80%64 snaps
18Calvin RidleyWR · Heavy rotation74%59 snaps
83Russell GageWR · Heavy rotation64%51 snaps
21Todd GurleyRB · Heavy rotation58%46 snaps
88Luke StockerTE · Rotational39%31 snaps
23Brian HillHB · Rotational26%21 snaps
13Christian BlakeWR · Situational19%15 snaps
17Olamide ZaccheausWR · Situational18%14 snaps
40Keith SmithFB · Situational16%13 snaps
25Ito SmithRB · Situational14%11 snaps
73Matt GonoT · Situational4%3 snaps
15Brandon PowellWR · Situational4%3 snaps
87Jaeden GrahamTE · Situational1%1 snap
Inactive · 5
Jordan MillerDBTakkarist McKinleyDEQadree OllisonRBJaylinn HawkinsSAFJohn WetzelT
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Vikings attack right, the Falcons attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Falcons←Vikings→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
M.Ryan pass+9% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(12:08) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep left to 11-J.Jones for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 12:08 · Falcons · 3rd & 11 at MIN 20 · gained 20 · +3.67 EP · +9.4% win probability
166 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 176 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 176 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
11 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIN moving 80 yards from the MIN 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; MIN attacks right, ATL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
176 of 176 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
176
EPA per play
+0.05
Success rate
46%
Yards
831
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Falcons1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR46+0.2867%
Vikings1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR20-0.3375%
Falcons1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14+0.4143%
Vikings1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12-0.1092%
Vikings0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR8+0.61100%
Falcons2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR7-0.6129%
Vikings2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6-0.4033%
Vikings1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Falcons2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Falcons0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR2——
Vikings2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR2——
Falcons1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Falcons1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Falcons1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
Falcons2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Falcons2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
176 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
176 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
Intercepted2 plays
Falcons6Vikings0
Falcons7Vikings0
Touchdown6 plays, from the Vikings 29 to the Vikings 19
Punt5 plays, from the Vikings 28 to the Vikings 37
Falcons10Vikings0
Field goal14 plays, from the Falcons 14 to the Vikings 30
Punt5 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Vikings 26
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Falcons 45 to the Vikings 35
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter49 plays
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Falcons 40 to the Falcons 1
Punt9 plays, from the Falcons 2 to the Falcons 48
Intercepted4 plays, from the Vikings 16 to the Vikings 33
Falcons16Vikings0
Falcons17Vikings0
Touchdown9 plays, from the Vikings 40 to the Vikings 8
Intercepted6 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Falcons 44
Falcons20Vikings0
Field goal11 plays, from the Vikings 48 to the Vikings 2
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter42 plays
Falcons23Vikings0
Field goal12 plays, from the Falcons 16 to the Vikings 28
Falcons23Vikings6
Falcons23Vikings7
Touchdown13 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Falcons 11
Falcons29Vikings7
Falcons30Vikings7
Touchdown10 plays, from the Falcons 31 to the Vikings 39
Punt5 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Vikings 26
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter47 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Falcons 30 to the Vikings 43
Punt4 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Vikings 29
Falcons33Vikings7
Field goal8 plays, from the Falcons 33 to the Vikings 20
Falcons33Vikings13
Falcons33Vikings15
Touchdown11 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Falcons 2
Falcons39Vikings15
Falcons40Vikings15
Touchdown8 plays, from the Vikings 44 to the Vikings 35
Falcons40Vikings21
Falcons40Vikings23
Touchdown5 plays, from the Vikings 20 to the Falcons 49
The period ended4 plays, from the Vikings 49 to the Vikings 45
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Vikings -3.5
Closing total
53
Falcons moneyline
+167
Vikings moneyline
-188
Vikings closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 53; the game landed 63 — over by 10.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
U.S. Bank Stadium
Roof / surface
dome · sportturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Craig Wrolstad
Rest
Falcons 7 days · Vikings 7 days
Coaches
Raheem Morris vs Mike Zimmer
1st · 0:16
ATL +6% win prob
(:16) (Shotgun) 23-B.Hill right end to MIN 27 for 8 yards (20-J.Gladney). FUMBLES (20-J.Gladney), RECOVERED by MIN-50-E.Wilson at MIN 21. 50-E.Wilson to MIN 24 for 3 yards (76-K.McGary).
2nd · 14:23MIN +6% win prob(14:23) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 82-K.Rudolph to ATL 20 for 19 yards (20-K.Sheffield; 37-R.Allen).
