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Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 10.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 38 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Eagles.
MarketModelmodel higher on Eagleshigher on Ravens184 of 194 plays carry both curves
Q4 · 1:55Ravens 30 — Eagles 28PHI ballBAL 83%
Ravens 83%Eagles 17%
TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 11-C.Wentz rushes left end. ATTEMPT FAILS.
Swing −7.4 for EaglesExpected points −0.95 for EaglesThe model had Eagles 11 points higher than the market did.play 187
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
4th · 2:00PHI +6% win prob(2:00) 11-C.Wentz up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 11:57PHI +6% win prob(11:57) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short left to 80-M.Boykin ran ob at PHI 36 for 11 yards (31-N.Robey).
1st · 10:09PHI +5% win prob(10:09) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short left to 13-D.Duvernay to PHI 20 for 17 yards (31-N.Robey).
1st · 12:35BAL +5% win prob(12:35) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson sacked ob at PHI 47 for 0 yards (55-B.Graham).
4th · 2:58PHI +4% win prob(2:58) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass deep right to 85-R.Rodgers to BAL 6 for 16 yards (33-M.Gilchrist) [99-M.Judon].
1st · 3:05BAL +4% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Nick Boyle's 7-yard touchdown catch with 8:11 left in the 1st put Baltimore Ravens ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 9 scores that followed.
4th2:00Carson Wentz·1-yd TD run1-yard rushing touchdowntwo-point no good+630–28
10 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Ravenscategory by categoryEagles
Ravens6–3Eagles
357Total yards368
5.5Yards per play5.4
40%Success rate37%
38%Third-down rate25%
2Red-zone touchdowns3
8Explosive plays5
17First downs20
3Sacks taken6
0Turnovers1
The read
Ravens ahead 6–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.08Ravens: +0.08 expected points added per play
−0.10Eagles: −0.10 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.18Ravens: +0.18 expected points added per play
−0.04Eagles: −0.04 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.02Ravens: −0.02 expected points added per play
−0.24Eagles: −0.24 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Ravens ran 65 snaps at a 51% dropback rate against Eagles’s 68 at 72%. Red-zone trips: Ravens 5, Eagles 5.
NoteEagles outgained Ravens 368-357 but lost the turnover battle 1-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
BAL's sack or hit rate, 34.7%, was the highest of the 28 team-games charted in week 6 — 6.1 points clear of the next team along.
49 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.4 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -31 pts to 14 pts
leaned — got home · +17.1 vs their 17.6%, and they swing ±9.4 week to week (+1.82× that swing) · 49 dropbacks
Eagles12.1%
inside their normal wobble · −5.7 vs their 17.8%, and they swing ±8.1 week to week (−0.70× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteBAL's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 34.7%, 17.1 points above their season mean of 17.6% and 1.8 times their own 9.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Eagles attack right, the Ravens attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Ravens←Eagles→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
C.Wentz rushes−14% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 11-C.Wentz rushes left end. ATTEMPT FAILS.
Q4 1:55 · Eagles · — at BAL 2 · gained nothing · -0.95 EP · −14.0% win probability
182 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 194 plays across 28 drives, personnel groupings on 194 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 28 drives ended in points. The longest march was PHI moving 86 yards from the PHI 14 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; PHI attacks right, BAL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
194 of 194 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
194
EPA per play
-0.00
Success rate
36%
Yards
723
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Eagles1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR43-0.3079%
Ravens1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR32-0.1547%
Eagles1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR13-0.1269%
Ravens2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR11-0.2127%
Ravens2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR11+0.3264%
Ravens1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9+0.6144%
Eagles1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6+1.2417%
Eagles1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Eagles0 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR1——
Ravens0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Eagles1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Ravens2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
194 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
194 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter45 plays
Punt5 plays
Ravens6Eagles0
Ravens7Eagles0
Touchdown10 plays, from the Eagles 47 to the Eagles 7
Punt6 plays, from the Eagles 26 to the Eagles 32
Punt4 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Eagles 31 to the Eagles 35
Punt5 plays, from the Ravens 19 to the Ravens 21
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Fumble lost1 play
Drive ended2 plays, from the Eagles 28 to the Eagles 25
Ravens13Eagles0
Touchdown2 plays, from the Eagles 9 to the Eagles 7
Ravens14Eagles0
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter47 plays
Punt3 plays
Ravens17Eagles0
Field goal5 plays, from the Ravens 38 to the Eagles 25
Punt5 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Eagles 26
Punt11 plays, from the Ravens 30 to the Eagles 44
Turnover on downs12 plays, from the Eagles 10 to the Ravens 20
Punt6 plays, from the Ravens 20 to the Ravens 29
No good4 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Ravens 34
3rd quarter39 plays
Punt14 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Eagles 24
Ravens17Eagles6
Touchdown3 plays, from the Eagles 14 to the Eagles 19
Ravens23Eagles6
Ravens24Eagles6
Touchdown7 plays, from the Ravens 37 to the Eagles 37
Punt5 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Eagles 26
Punt4 plays
The period ended6 plays, from the Eagles 19 to the Ravens 22
4th quarter63 plays
Ravens24Eagles12
Ravens24Eagles14
Touchdown9 plays, from the Ravens 16 to the Ravens 2
Ravens27Eagles14
Field goal9 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Eagles 37
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Eagles 30
Ravens30Eagles14
Field goal5 plays, from the Eagles 30 to the Eagles 27
Ravens30Eagles20
Ravens30Eagles22
Touchdown14 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Ravens 18
Punt8 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Ravens 26
Ravens30Eagles28
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Touchdown6 plays, from the Eagles 29 to the Ravens 1
The period ended7 plays, from the Eagles 45 to the Eagles 19
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Ravens -10.5
Closing total
46.5
Ravens moneyline
-422
Eagles moneyline
+348
Ravens closed -10.5, won by 2 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 46.5; the game landed 58 — over by 11.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Lincoln Financial Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Mild, 65°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 8 mph out of the south-east; mainly clear.
Referee
Shawn Smith
Rest
Ravens 7 days · Eagles 7 days
Coaches
John Harbaugh vs Doug Pederson
(3:05) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz left end to PHI 35 for 5 yards (32-D.Elliott; 45-J.Ferguson). FUMBLES (32-D.Elliott), RECOVERED by BAL-36-C.Clark at PHI 33. 36-C.Clark to PHI 31 for 2 yards (68-J.Mailata). FUMBLES (68-J.Mailata), recovered by BAL-22-J.Smith at PHI 32. 22-J.Smith pushed ob at PHI 28 for 4 yards (86-Z.Ertz).
4th · 3:11PHI +4% win prob(3:11) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass incomplete deep right to 13-T.Fulgham. PENALTY on BAL-24-M.Peters, Defensive Pass Interference, 49 yards, enforced at PHI 29 - No Play.
