2020 Week 6 · Sun, Oct 18, 2020 · Lincoln Financial Field

Baltimore RavensWinner

Philadelphia Eagles

BAL -10.5 no coverO 46.5 ✓Ravens closed -10.5, won by 2 — but didn't cover.

Baltimore Ravens 30–28 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 1:55, BAL +7% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 1:55BAL — PHI PHI ballBAL 83%

TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 11-C.Wentz rushes left end. ATTEMPT FAILS.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 1:55BAL +7% win probTWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 11-C.Wentz rushes left end. ATTEMPT FAILS.
Q4 · 2:00PHI +6% win prob(2:00) 11-C.Wentz up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 11:57PHI +6% win prob(11:57) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short left to 80-M.Boykin ran ob at PHI 36 for 11 yards (31-N.Robey).
Q1 · 10:09PHI +5% win prob(10:09) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short left to 13-D.Duvernay to PHI 20 for 17 yards (31-N.Robey).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Ravens	Eagles
Offensive plays	65	68
Total yards	357	368 (edge)
Yards per play	5.5 (edge)	5.4
Expected points added / play	0.08 (edge)	-0.10
Success rate	40% (edge)	37%
Dropback rate	51%	72%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.18 (edge)	-0.04
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.02 (edge)	-0.24
Third downs	6/16 (edge)	3/12
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	8 (edge)	5
First downs gained on snaps	17	20 (edge)
Sacks taken	3 (edge)	6
Turnovers	0 (edge)	1

Eagles outgained Ravens 368–357 but lost the turnover battle 1–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · PHI

Carson WentzQB

21/40, 213 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

-5.4 expected points added · -2.9% completion over expected

Passing · BAL

Lamar JacksonQB

16/27, 186 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

1.9 expected points added · -4.7% completion over expected

Rushing · PHI

Miles SandersRB

9 att, 118 yds, 0 TD

3.9 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · BAL

Lamar JacksonQB

9 att, 108 yds, 1 TD

7.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · PHI

Travis FulghamWR

6/10 for 75 yds, 1 TD

26% of team targets · 6.0 expected points added

Receiving · BAL

Marquise BrownWR

4/6 for 57 yds, 0 TD

24% of team targets · 2.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	PHI	PHI 25	5	-13	1:45	Punt
2	BAL	PHI 47	10	47	5:13	Touchdown
3	PHI	PHI 26	5	11	2:18	Punt
4	BAL	BAL 25	4	-2	0:56	Punt
5	PHI	PHI 31	4	4	0:45	Punt
6	BAL	BAL 19	4	2	0:58	Punt
7	PHI	PHI 30	3	10	0:11	Fumble
8	BAL	PHI 28	4	21	2:23	Touchdown
9	PHI	PHI 25	5	-2	1:23	Punt
10	BAL	BAL 38	5	35	2:00	Turnover on downs
11	PHI	PHI 25	5	-10	1:40	Punt
12	BAL	BAL 30	8	40	4:56	Punt
13	PHI	PHI 10	10	75	4:35	Turnover on downs
14	BAL	BAL 20	4	9	0:41	Punt
15	PHI	PHI 25	3	26	0:16	End of half
16	BAL	BAL 25	11	50	6:50	Punt
17	PHI	PHI 14	3	79	0:53	Turnover on downs
18	BAL	BAL 37	7	63	2:52	Touchdown
19	PHI	PHI 25	5	1	1:18	Punt
20	BAL	BAL 40	4	-2	1:31	Punt
21	PHI	PHI 19	13	80	3:04	Touchdown
22	BAL	BAL 25	8	38	3:31	Turnover on downs
23	PHI	PHI 25	5	5	0:42	Turnover on downs
24	BAL	PHI 30	4	12	2:07	Turnover on downs
25	PHI	PHI 25	13	87	3:24	Touchdown
26	BAL	BAL 25	5	11	0:37	Punt
27	PHI	PHI 29	5	22	1:16	Touchdown
28	BAL	PHI 45	5	26	1:55	End of game

0 of 28 drives ended in points. Longest march: Eagles gained 87 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Baltimore Ravens

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Lamar Jackson	16/27	186	1	0	3	1.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Lamar Jackson	9	108	12.0	1	7.7
J.K. Dobbins	9	28	3.1	0	-2.9
Gus Edwards	14	26	1.9	1	-4.6
Mark Ingram	5	20	4.0	0	0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Marquise Brown	4	6	57	0	24%	2.5
Nick Boyle	3	3	33	1	12%	3.9
Willie Snead	1	2	32	0	8%	1.2
Devin Duvernay	3	3	31	0	12%	3.7
Mark Andrews	2	4	21	0	16%	0.1
Miles Boykin	1	2	11	0	8%	1.0
J.K. Dobbins	2	4	1	0	16%	-2.8
Patrick Ricard	0	1	0	0	4%	-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Marlon Humphrey	8	0	1.0	0
L.J. Fort	6	1	0.0	0
Calais Campbell	4	1	3.0	0
Marcus Peters	3	0	0.0	0
Matt Judon	2	1	0.0	0
Chuck Clark	2	1	0.0	0
DeShon Elliott	1	2	0.0	1
Marcus Gilchrist	3	0	0.0	0
Jihad Ward	1	1	1.0	0
Pernell McPhee	2	0	1.0	0

Philadelphia Eagles

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Carson Wentz	21/40	213	2	0	6	-5.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Miles Sanders	9	118	13.1	0	3.9
Carson Wentz	5	49	9.8	1	-5.6
Jalen Hurts	2	23	11.5	0	0.4
Boston Scott	2	4	2.0	0	0.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Travis Fulgham	6	10	75	1	26%	6.0
John Hightower	1	4	50	0	10%	1.8
Zach Ertz	4	10	33	0	26%	-2.2
Richard Rodgers	3	3	31	0	8%	2.5
Greg Ward	2	3	19	0	8%	0.8
Boston Scott	2	4	5	0	10%	-3.0
Jalen Hurts	1	1	3	0	3%	-0.2
Jason Croom	1	1	3	1	3%	1.2
J.J. Arcega-Whiteside	0	1	0	0	3%	0.4
Miles Sanders	1	2	-6	0	5%	-1.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Nathan Gerry	7	2	0.0	1
Alex Singleton	3	5	0.0	0
Brandon Graham	5	1	2.0	0
Rodney McLeod	4	2	0.0	0
Josh Sweat	3	2	0.0	1
Jalen Mills	3	1	0.0	0
Malik Jackson	2	2	1.0	0
Will Parks	3	0	0.0	0
Davion Taylor	2	1	0.0	0
Fletcher Cox	2	1	0.0	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: BAL -10.5
Closing total: 46.5
BAL moneyline: -422
PHI moneyline: +348

Ravens closed -10.5, won by 2 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 46.5; the game landed 58 — over by 11.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Lincoln Financial Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 61°F, wind 7 mph
Referee: Shawn Smith
Rest: BAL 7 days · PHI 7 days
Coaches: John Harbaugh vs Doug Pederson