2020 Week 6 · Sun, Oct 18, 2020 · Bank of America Stadium

Chicago BearsWinner

Carolina Panthers

CAR -2 upsetU 45 ✓Panthers closed -2 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Chicago Bears 23–16. Biggest swing: Q3 10:20, CHI +14% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q3 · 10:20CHI — CAR CAR ball · 1st & 10CHI 68%

(10:20) (Shotgun) 28-M.Davis right tackle to CAR 31 for 1 yard (39-E.Jackson). FUMBLES (39-E.Jackson), RECOVERED by CHI-96-A.Hicks at CAR 26. 96-A.Hicks to CAR 22 for 4 yards (72-T.Moton).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q3 · 10:20CHI +14% win prob(10:20) (Shotgun) 28-M.Davis right tackle to CAR 31 for 1 yard (39-E.Jackson). FUMBLES (39-E.Jackson), RECOVERED by CHI-96-A.Hicks at CAR 26. 96-A.Hicks to CAR 22 for 4 yards (72-T.Moton).
Q3 · 6:19CHI +13% win prob(6:19) 4-J.Slye 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-3-J.Charlton.
Q4 · 2:00CHI +12% win prob(2:00) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass incomplete deep left to 12-D.Moore.
Q3 · 10:13CHI +11% win prob(10:13) 9-N.Foles pass short right intended for 86-D.Harris INTERCEPTED by 21-J.Chinn [95-D.Brown] at CAR 9. 21-J.Chinn to CAR 9 for no gain (86-D.Harris).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Bears	Panthers
Offensive plays	60	62
Total yards	265	303 (edge)
Yards per play	4.4	4.9 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.00 (edge)	-0.28
Success rate	40% (edge)	31%
Dropback rate	65%	65%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.07 (edge)	-0.22
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.12 (edge)	-0.40
Third downs	7/13 (edge)	3/13
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	3	10 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	19 (edge)	16
Sacks taken	0 (edge)	4
Turnovers	1 (edge)	3

Panthers outgained Bears 303–265 but lost the turnover battle 3–1. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CAR

Teddy BridgewaterQB

16/29, 216 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT

-9.1 expected points added · -6.6% completion over expected

Passing · CHI

Nick FolesQB

23/39, 198 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

0.8 expected points added · -3.2% completion over expected

Rushing · CHI

David MontgomeryRB

19 att, 58 yds, 0 TD

-3.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CAR

Mike DavisRB

18 att, 52 yds, 1 TD

-7.1 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CAR

D.J. MooreWR

5/11 for 93 yds, 0 TD

41% of team targets · -0.9 expected points added

Receiving · CAR

Robbie ChosenWR

4/5 for 77 yds, 0 TD

19% of team targets · 3.4 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CAR	CAR 10	4	-9	1:44	Interception
2	CHI	CAR 7	4	12	1:36	Touchdown
3	CAR	CAR 25	15	72	6:33	Turnover on downs
4	CHI	CHI 25	8	34	3:52	Punt
5	CAR	CAR 11	4	1	2:08	Punt
6	CHI	CHI 39	11	48	5:58	Turnover on downs
7	CAR	CAR 25	14	61	6:09	Turnover on downs
8	CHI	CHI 25	10	33	1:58	Turnover on downs
9	CAR	—	1	0	0:02	End of half
10	CHI	CHI 25	8	7	2:37	Punt
11	CAR	CAR 3	4	23	2:10	Fumble
12	CHI	CAR 22	1	0	0:07	Interception
13	CAR	CAR 9	6	49	3:53	Turnover on downs
14	CHI	CHI 44	11	56	4:29	Touchdown
15	CAR	CAR 25	11	26	3:33	Touchdown
16	CHI	CHI 25	11	49	3:52	Turnover on downs
17	CAR	CAR 35	6	35	1:33	Turnover on downs
18	CHI	CHI 25	7	18	2:34	Punt
19	CAR	CAR 17	8	45	3:17	Turnover on downs
20	CHI	CHI 38	4	8	0:23	Punt
21	CAR	CAR 20	1	0	0:04	Interception
22	CHI	CAR 35	3	0	1:28	End of game

0 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Panthers gained 72 scrimmage yards over 15 plays for a turnover on downs.

Full stat lines

Box score

Chicago Bears

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Nick Foles	23/39	198	1	1	0	0.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
David Montgomery	19	58	3.1	0	-3.4
Nick Foles	5	4	0.8	1	0.4
Cordarrelle Patterson	1	1	1.0	0	-0.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Allen Robinson	5	9	53	0	25%	1.9
David Montgomery	4	5	39	0	14%	0.2
Darnell Mooney	3	5	36	0	14%	2.4
Jimmy Graham	5	8	34	0	22%	0.5
Cole Kmet	2	2	20	1	6%	3.8
Cordarrelle Patterson	1	1	8	0	3%	1.6
Anthony Miller	3	3	8	0	8%	-1.5
Demetrius Harris	0	3	0	0	8%	-6.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Roquan Smith	7	5	0.0	0	1
Danny Trevathan	5	4	0.0	0	0
Tashaun Gipson	2	4	0.0	1	1
Buster Skrine	4	1	0.0	0	0
Kyle Fuller	3	1	0.0	0	0
Khalil Mack	1	2	1.0	0	0
James Vaughters	2	1	0.5	0	0
Eddie Jackson	1	2	0.0	0	0
Bilal Nichols	2	1	1.0	0	0
Jaylon Johnson	1	2	0.0	0	2

Carolina Panthers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Teddy Bridgewater	16/29	216	0	2	4	-9.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Mike Davis	18	52	2.9	1	-7.1
Teddy Bridgewater	8	48	6.0	0	-0.7
Trenton Cannon	3	12	4.0	0	-0.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
D.J. Moore	5	11	93	41%	-0.9
Robbie Chosen	4	5	77	19%	3.4
Trenton Cannon	2	2	15	7%	0.7
Keith Kirkwood	1	2	13	7%	-1.0
Ian Thomas	1	1	9	4%	-0.1
Chris Manhertz	1	2	6	7%	-1.6
Mike Davis	2	3	3	11%	-1.7
Alex Armah	0	1	0	4%	-0.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Tre Boston	4	3	0	1
Shaq Thompson	4	2	0	0
Jeremy Chinn	4	1	1	2
Tahir Whitehead	3	2	0	0
Juston Burris	2	2	0	0
Corn Elder	3	1	0	0
Brian Burns	1	2	0	0
Derrick Brown	2	1	0	0
Stephen Weatherly	1	1	0	0
Donte Jackson	2	0	0	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: CAR -2
Closing total: 45
CHI moneyline: +112
CAR moneyline: -124

Panthers closed -2 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 45; the game landed 39 — under by 6.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Bank of America Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 63°F, wind 6 mph
Referee: Adrian Hall
Rest: CHI 10 days · CAR 7 days
Coaches: Matt Nagy vs Matt Rhule