For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
2020 Week 6 · Sun, Oct 18, 2020 · Lucas Oil Stadium
Final
BengalsCincinnati27
BY 4final margin
ColtsIndianapolis31
Cincinnati Bengals 27 at Indianapolis Colts 31. Final.
Colts -7.5 no coverO 46 ✓
The verdict · 2020 Week 6
Indianapolis Colts 31, Bengals 27 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 0:46, 3rd and 6, on Julian Blackmon — 30.2 win-probability points to the Colts on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:46 · 3rd and 6
Julian Blackmon
Colts
(:46) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep middle intended for 83-T.Boyd INTERCEPTED by 32-J.Blackmon at IND 19. 32-J.Blackmon to IND 23 for 4 yards (85-T.Higgins).
Dome
Colts closed -7.5, won by 4 — but didn't cover.
Indianapolis Colts 31–27. Biggest swing: Q4 0:46, Colts +30.2% win probability on one snap.
30.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Randy BullockColtsQ4 8:06(8:06) 4-R.Bullock 48 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.
16.4pts
A.J. GreenBengalsQ4 1:48(1:48) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 18-A.Green to IND 39 for 10 yards (37-K.Willis).
18.8pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Colts won this one — 9 chunk plays, against Bengals at 5 chunk plays.
Coltsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Colts won this one — 7 of 11 on third down, against Bengals at 8 of 17 on third down.
Coltsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Bengals owned this one and still lost it — 1 giveaway, against Colts at 2 giveaways.
Bengalsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Colts won this one — 51% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Bengals at 46% of snaps stayed on schedule.
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 13.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 27 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bengals.
MarketModelmodel higher on Coltshigher on Bengals172 of 178 plays carry both curves
(:46) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep middle intended for 83-T.Boyd INTERCEPTED by 32-J.Blackmon at IND 19. 32-J.Blackmon to IND 23 for 4 yards (85-T.Higgins).
Swing +30.2 for ColtsExpected points +2.55 for ColtsModel and market agree here.play 176
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:46CIN +30% win prob(:46) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep middle intended for 83-T.Boyd INTERCEPTED by 32-J.Blackmon at IND 19. 32-J.Blackmon to IND 23 for 4 yards (85-T.Higgins).
4th · 1:48IND +19% win prob(1:48) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 18-A.Green to IND 39 for 10 yards (37-K.Willis).
4th · 8:06CIN +16% win prob(8:06) 4-R.Bullock 48 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.
4th · 15:00IND +14% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short right to 84-J.Doyle for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 11:20IND +13% win prob(11:20) (Shotgun) 25-G.Bernard up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 0:51IND +13% win prob(:51) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep right to 85-T.Higgins to IND 2 for 67 yards (26-R.Ya-Sin).
4th · 10:24
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Jack Doyle's 14-yard touchdown catch with 15:00 left in the 4th put Indianapolis Colts ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 1 score that followed.
2nd8:09Randy Bullock·47-yd field goal47-yard field goalholder K.Huber · snap C.Harris+324–7
2nd4:43Trey Burton·10-yd TD catch10-yard touchdown catchfrom Philip Riversfrom Philip Rivers+724–14
2nd0:20Zach Pascal·17-yd TD catch17-yard touchdown catchfrom Philip Riversfrom Philip Rivers+724–21
3rd3:37Randy Bullock·55-yd field goal55-yard field goalholder K.Huber · snap C.Harris+327–21
4th15:00Jack Doyle·14-yd TD catch14-yard touchdown catchfrom Philip Riversfrom Philip RiversLead never changed again+727–28
4th4:07Rodrigo Blankenship·40-yd field goal40-yard field goalholder R.Sanchez · snap L.Rhodes+327–31
10 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Bengalscategory by categoryColts
Bengals1–8Colts
399Total yards431
5.5Yards per play7.3
46%Success rate51%
47%Third-down rate64%
3Red-zone touchdowns4
5Explosive plays9
20First downs23
2Sacks taken1
1Turnovers2
The read
Colts ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.20Bengals: +0.20 expected points added per play
+0.22Colts: +0.22 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.31Bengals: +0.31 expected points added per play
+0.30Colts: +0.30 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.06Bengals: +0.06 expected points added per play
−0.04Colts: −0.04 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bengals ran 72 snaps at a 58% dropback rate against Colts’s 59 at 76%. Red-zone trips: Bengals 3, Colts 4.
NoteColts won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.22 expected points added per play vs 0.20.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekOver Expected
IND's pass rate over expected, +9.8 pts, was the highest of the 28 team-games charted in week 6 — 2.8 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of +3.2 pts in week 1.
59 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.4 points.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
IND's early-down pass rate, 75.0%, was the highest of the 28 team-games charted in week 6 — 3.9 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of 66.7% in week 1.
48 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.0 points.
CIN's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 100.0% in week 5 against 25.0% here — they went for it then and took the kick now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
4 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 11 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 33.3 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -29 pts to 27 pts
inside their normal wobble · −5.8 vs their 12.5%, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (−0.91× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
Colts11.9%
right on their number · −0.5 vs their 12.4%, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (−0.08× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteIND's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 9.8 pts, 14.0 points above their season mean of -4.2 pts and 1.9 times their own 7.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Colts attack right, the Bengals attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bengals←Colts→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Burrow pass−28% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:46) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep middle intended for 83-T.Boyd INTERCEPTED by 32-J.Blackmon at IND 19. 32-J.Blackmon to IND 23 for 4 yards (85-T.Higgins).
Q4 0:46 · Bengals · 3rd & 6 at IND 35 · gained nothing · -2.55 EP · −28.0% win probability
170 snaps placed · 8 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 178 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 178 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was IND moving 87 yards from the IND 13 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; IND attacks right, CIN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
178 of 178 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
178
EPA per play
+0.10
Success rate
43%
Yards
828
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Bengals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR55+0.2662%
Colts1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR48+0.2781%
Colts1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9+0.3056%
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7+0.3729%
Bengals1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR4——
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Bengals2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR2——
Colts1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Bengals1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Bengals2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Colts0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
178 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
178 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Colts 47
Bengals6Colts0
Bengals7Colts0
Touchdown8 plays, from the Colts 43 to the Colts 2
Punt5 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Colts 34
Bengals13Colts0
Bengals14Colts0
Touchdown13 plays, from the Bengals 22 to the Colts 2
Punt5 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Colts 32
The period ended5 plays, from the Bengals 30 to the Bengals 36
2nd quarter54 plays
Bengals20Colts0
Bengals21Colts0
Touchdown3 plays
Bengals21Colts6
Bengals21Colts7
Touchdown9 plays, from the Colts 13 to the Bengals 1
Bengals24Colts7
Field goal10 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Colts 29
Bengals24Colts13
Bengals24Colts14
Touchdown12 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Bengals 5
Punt5 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Bengals 29
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.8 seconds
Bengals24Colts20
Bengals24Colts21
Touchdown12 plays, from the Colts 28 to the Bengals 17
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter39 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Bengals 13 to the Bengals 22
Punt10 plays, from the Colts 35 to the Bengals 44
Bengals27Colts21
Field goal15 plays, from the Bengals 1 to the Colts 37
The period ended9 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Bengals 16
4th quarter45 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
Bengals27Colts27
Bengals27Colts28
Touchdown2 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Bengals 28
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.9 seconds
Intercepted2 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
No good11 plays, from the Bengals 12 to the Colts 30
Bengals27Colts31
Field goal10 plays, from the Colts 38 to the Bengals 22
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSevenPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.9 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.1 seconds
Intercepted12 plays, from the Bengals 26 to the Colts 35
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
