2020 Week 6 · Sun, Oct 18, 2020 · Lucas Oil Stadium

Cincinnati Bengals

Indianapolis ColtsWinner

IND -7.5 no coverO 46 ✓DomeColts closed -7.5, won by 4 — but didn't cover.

Indianapolis Colts 31–27. Biggest swing: Q4 0:46, CIN +30% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 0:46CIN — IND CIN ball · 3rd & 6IND 67%

(:46) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep middle intended for 83-T.Boyd INTERCEPTED by 32-J.Blackmon at IND 19. 32-J.Blackmon to IND 23 for 4 yards (85-T.Higgins).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 0:46CIN +30% win prob(:46) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep middle intended for 83-T.Boyd INTERCEPTED by 32-J.Blackmon at IND 19. 32-J.Blackmon to IND 23 for 4 yards (85-T.Higgins).
Q4 · 1:48IND +19% win prob(1:48) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 18-A.Green to IND 39 for 10 yards (37-K.Willis).
Q4 · 8:06CIN +16% win prob(8:06) 4-R.Bullock 48 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.
Q4 · 15:00IND +14% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short right to 84-J.Doyle for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Bengals	Colts
Offensive plays	72	59
Total yards	399	431 (edge)
Yards per play	5.5	7.3 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.20	0.22 (edge)
Success rate	46%	51% (edge)
Dropback rate	58%	76%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.31 (edge)	0.30
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.06 (edge)	-0.04
Third downs	8/17	7/11 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5	9 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	20	23 (edge)
Sacks taken	2	1 (edge)
Turnovers	1 (edge)	2

Colts won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.22 expected points added per play vs 0.20.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · IND

Philip RiversQB

29/44, 371 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT

18.4 expected points added · +1.1% completion over expected

Passing · CIN

Joe BurrowQB

25/39, 313 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

14.4 expected points added · -4.6% completion over expected

Rushing · IND

Jonathan TaylorRB

12 att, 60 yds, 0 TD

-0.6 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CIN

Joe MixonRB

18 att, 54 yds, 1 TD

-1.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CIN

Tee HigginsWR

6/8 for 125 yds, 0 TD

21% of team targets · 9.0 expected points added

Receiving · IND

Marcus JohnsonWR

5/8 for 108 yds, 0 TD

19% of team targets · 7.3 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	IND	IND 25	3	20	0:55	Fumble
2	CIN	IND 43	8	43	2:48	Touchdown
3	IND	IND 25	5	9	2:00	Punt
4	CIN	CIN 22	13	78	5:59	Touchdown
5	IND	IND 25	5	7	1:33	Punt
6	CIN	CIN 30	5	80	1:49	Touchdown
7	IND	IND 13	9	87	2:38	Touchdown
8	CIN	CIN 25	10	26	4:14	Turnover on downs
9	IND	IND 25	11	80	3:26	Touchdown
10	CIN	CIN 25	5	4	1:40	Punt
11	IND	IND 28	10	82	2:43	Touchdown
12	CIN	CIN 25	2	0	0:15	End of half
13	CIN	CIN 13	5	9	1:32	Punt
14	IND	IND 35	9	31	3:53	Punt
15	CIN	CIN 1	13	67	6:03	Turnover on downs
16	IND	IND 25	9	75	3:37	Touchdown
17	CIN	CIN 25	5	-5	2:02	Punt
18	IND	CIN 43	2	0	0:09	Interception
19	CIN	CIN 12	11	58	4:42	Turnover on downs
20	IND	IND 38	10	40	3:59	Turnover on downs
21	CIN	CIN 26	11	39	3:24	Interception
22	IND	IND 23	1	0	0:39	End of game

0 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Colts gained 87 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Cincinnati Bengals

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Joe Burrow	25/39	313	0	1	2	14.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Joe Mixon	18	54	3.0	1	-1.4
Tyler Boyd	1	25	25.0	0	1.4
Giovani Bernard	8	15	1.9	1	1.2
Joe Burrow	3	2	0.7	1	1.2
Tee Higgins	1	2	2.0	0	-0.3
Samaje Perine	1	0	0.0	0	-1.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Tee Higgins	6	8	125	21%	9.0
A.J. Green	8	11	96	28%	10.1
Tyler Boyd	5	8	54	21%	0.5
Joe Mixon	2	3	15	8%	-0.7
Giovani Bernard	3	3	13	8%	1.3
Mike Thomas	1	3	10	8%	-0.0
Alex Erickson	0	1	0	3%	-1.2
Cethan Carter	0	1	0	3%	-0.9
Drew Sample	0	1	0	3%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Vonn Bell	8	0	0.0	0	1
Jessie Bates	5	0	0.0	1	1
Darius Phillips	4	0	0.0	0	0
Xavier Williams	2	1	1.0	0	0
LeShaun Sims	3	0	0.0	0	0
Logan Wilson	3	0	0.0	0	0
Mackensie Alexander	2	0	0.0	0	0
Germaine Pratt	2	0	0.0	0	0
William Jackson	2	0	0.0	0	1
Shawn Williams	2	0	0.0	0	0

Indianapolis Colts

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Philip Rivers	29/44	371	3	1	1	18.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Jonathan Taylor	12	60	5.0	0	-0.6
Trey Burton	1	1	1.0	1	0.7
Philip Rivers	1	-1	-1.0	0	0.0
Jordan Wilkins	1	-1	-1.0	0	-0.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Marcus Johnson	5	8	108	0	19%	7.3
Trey Burton	4	5	58	1	12%	5.5
Jonathan Taylor	4	4	55	0	10%	5.1
Zach Pascal	4	7	54	1	17%	2.0
DeMichael Harris	3	3	29	0	7%	1.7
Jack Doyle	3	3	29	1	7%	-2.4
Nyheim Miller-Hines	5	6	27	0	14%	-1.1
T.Y. Hilton	1	5	11	0	12%	-1.6
Jordan Wilkins	0	1	0	0	2%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Anthony Walker	7	0	0.0	0	0
Khari Willis	7	0	0.0	0	1
Bobby Okereke	5	2	0.0	0	2
Kenny Moore	5	1	0.0	0	2
Grover Stewart	4	1	0.0	0	0
Tyquan Lewis	2	3	0.5	0	0
Rock Ya-Sin	5	0	0.0	0	2
Xavier Rhodes	3	0	0.0	0	3
DeForest Buckner	2	1	1.0	0	0
Julian Blackmon	2	0	0.0	1	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: IND -7.5
Closing total: 46
CIN moneyline: +288
IND moneyline: -340

Colts closed -7.5, won by 4 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 46; the game landed 58 — over by 12.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Lucas Oil Stadium
Roof / surface: closed · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Land Clark
Rest: CIN 7 days · IND 7 days
Coaches: Zac Taylor vs Frank Reich