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Cleveland Browns 7 at Pittsburgh Steelers 38. Final.
Steelers -3 ✓U 50 ✓
The verdict · 2020 Week 6
Pittsburgh Steelers 38, Browns 7 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 9:05, 3rd and 3, on Minkah Fitzpatrick — 16.5 win-probability points to the Steelers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 9:05 · 3rd and 3
Minkah Fitzpatrick
Steelers
(9:05) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle intended for 88-H.Bryant INTERCEPTED by 39-M.Fitzpatrick at CLE 33. 39-M.Fitzpatrick for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Steelers closed -3 and covered, winning by 31.
Pittsburgh Steelers 38–7 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 9:05, Steelers +16.5% win probability on one snap.
16.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
James WashingtonSteelersQ1 14:24(14:24) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass deep left to 13-J.Washington to CLE 43 for 27 yards (39-T.Mitchell).
7.2pts
Ben RoethlisbergerBrownsQ1 10:42(10:42) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass incomplete deep middle to 85-E.Ebron. Coverage 56-Smith.
5.2pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Steelers won this one — +0.21 expected points per carry, against Browns at -0.49 expected points per carry.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Steelers won this one — +0.13 expected points per snap, against Browns at -0.51 expected points per snap.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Steelers won this one — 5 of 13 on third down, against Browns at 1 of 12 on third down.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Steelers won this one — +0.02 expected points per dropback, against Browns at -0.53 expected points per dropback.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 1.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 6 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Browns.
MarketModelmodel higher on Steelershigher on Browns154 of 161 plays carry both curves
(9:05) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle intended for 88-H.Bryant INTERCEPTED by 39-M.Fitzpatrick at CLE 33. 39-M.Fitzpatrick for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +16.5 for SteelersExpected points +7.11 for SteelersModel and market agree here.play 17
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 9:05CLE +17% win prob(9:05) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle intended for 88-H.Bryant INTERCEPTED by 39-M.Fitzpatrick at CLE 33. 39-M.Fitzpatrick for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 14:24PIT +7% win prob(14:24) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass deep left to 13-J.Washington to CLE 43 for 27 yards (39-T.Mitchell).
1st · 10:42CLE +5% win prob(10:42) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass incomplete deep middle to 85-E.Ebron. Coverage 56-Smith.
1st · 6:26CLE +5% win prob(6:26) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger sacked at PIT 24 for -12 yards (sack split by 93-B.Goodson and 29-S.Redwine).
2nd · 11:12PIT +5% win prob(11:12) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass deep left to 11-C.Claypool pushed ob at CLE 3 for 36 yards (39-T.Mitchell).
2nd · 7:50CLE +4% win prob(7:50) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep right intended for 82-R.Higgins INTERCEPTED by 20-C.Sutton at 50. 20-C.Sutton to 50 for no gain (82-R.Higgins). Pressure by 91-Tuitt.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Chris Boswell's 35-yard field goal with 10:38 left in the 1st put Pittsburgh Steelers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Lead
1st10:38Chris Boswell·35-yd field goal35-yard field goalholder D.Colquitt · snap K.CanadayLead never changed again+30–3
Steelers ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.53 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.51Browns: −0.51 expected points added per play
+0.13Steelers: +0.13 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.53Browns: −0.53 expected points added per play
+0.02Steelers: +0.02 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.49Browns: −0.49 expected points added per play
+0.21Steelers: +0.21 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Browns ran 54 snaps at a 61% dropback rate against Steelers’s 58 at 43%. Red-zone trips: Browns 1, Steelers 5.
NoteSteelers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.13 expected points added per play vs -0.51.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
PIT's early-down pass rate, 37.2%, is past their previous low of 44.0% in week 5 — the lowest of their 5 charted games through week 6.
43 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.0 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 33 pts
inside their normal wobble · −3.3 vs their 11.3%, and they swing ±5.3 week to week (−0.61× that swing) · 25 dropbacks
Steelers24.2%
right on their number · +1.2 vs their 23.1%, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (+0.15× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NotePIT's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 37.2%, 23.7 points below their season mean of 60.9% and 2.0 times their own 12.0-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Cleveland Browns
48 dressed · 6 inactive
75Joel BitonioG · Every snap100%57 snaps
71Jedrick WillsOT · Every snap100%57 snaps
74Chris HubbardG · Every snap100%57 snaps
78Jack ConklinT · Every snap100%57 snaps
64JC TretterC · Every snap100%57 snaps
13Odell Beckham Jr.WR · Full-time84%48 snaps
80Jarvis LandryWR · Heavy rotation77%44 snaps
6Baker MayfieldQB · Heavy rotation74%42 snaps
81Austin HooperTE · Heavy rotation70%40 snaps
82Rashard HigginsWR · Heavy rotation60%34 snaps
27Kareem HuntRB · Heavy rotation53%30 snaps
85David NjokuTE · Rotational40%23 snaps
88Harrison BryantTE · Rotational37%21 snaps
30D'Ernest JohnsonRB · Rotational30%17 snaps
5Case KeenumQB · Rotational26%15 snaps
10Taywan TaylorWR · Situational18%10 snaps
31Andy JanovichRB · Situational12%7 snaps
25Dontrell HilliardRB · Situational12%7 snaps
11Donovan Peoples-JonesWR · Situational5%3 snaps
89Stephen CarlsonTE · Situational2%1 snap
Inactive · 6
Ronnie HarrisonDBJoe JacksonDEVincent TaylorDTWyatt TellerGJacob PhillipsLBKarl JosephSS
Pittsburgh Steelers
48 dressed · 6 inactive
69Kevin DotsonOG · Every snap100%65 snaps
78Alejandro VillanuevaT · Every snap100%65 snaps
71Matt FeilerT · Full-time95%62 snaps
76Chukwuma OkoraforT · Full-time95%62 snaps
7Ben RoethlisbergerQB · Full-time89%58 snaps
53Maurkice PounceyC · Full-time83%54 snaps
11Chase ClaypoolWR · Heavy rotation78%51 snaps
85Eric EbronTE · Heavy rotation71%46 snaps
13James WashingtonWR · Heavy rotation66%43 snaps
30James ConnerRB · Heavy rotation66%43 snaps
19JuJu Smith-SchusterWR · Heavy rotation65%42 snaps
89Vance McDonaldTE · Heavy rotation62%40 snaps
24Benny SnellRB · Situational22%14 snaps
14Ray-Ray McCloudWR · Situational20%13 snaps
60J.C. HassenauerC · Situational17%11 snaps
26Anthony McFarlandRB · Situational15%10 snaps
65Jerald HawkinsT · Situational15%10 snaps
2Mason RudolphQB · Situational11%7 snaps
38Jaylen SamuelsRB · Situational8%5 snaps
44Derek WattFB · Situational6%4 snaps
17Deon CainWR · Situational6%4 snaps
39Minkah FitzpatrickS · Situational5%3 snaps
77Derwin GrayT · Situational5%3 snaps
Inactive · 6
Carlos DavisDTDavid DeCastroGUlysees GilbertLBJoshua DobbsQBZach GentryTEDiontae JohnsonWR
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Steelers attack right, the Browns attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Browns←Steelers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
B.Mayfield pass−16% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(9:05) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle intended for 88-H.Bryant INTERCEPTED by 39-M.Fitzpatrick at CLE 33. 39-M.Fitzpatrick for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 9:05 · Browns · 3rd & 3 at CLE 28 · gained nothing · -7.11 EP · −15.5% win probability
152 snaps placed · 9 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 161 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 161 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was PIT moving 88 yards from the PIT 12 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; PIT attacks right, CLE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
161 of 161 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
161
EPA per play
-0.18
Success rate
39%
Yards
497
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Steelers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR39+0.1359%
Browns1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR31-0.3971%
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR13-0.8846%
Steelers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR7+0.360%
Browns1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR6+0.3550%
Steelers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5-0.0220%
Steelers1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR5+0.140%
Browns2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Steelers1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Browns2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
161 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
161 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
Browns0Steelers3
Field goal12 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Browns 17
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.8 seconds
Browns0Steelers9
Touchdown4 plays, from the Browns 21 to the Browns 28
Browns0Steelers10
Punt5 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Browns 29
Punt4 plays, from the Steelers 35 to the Steelers 36
Punt6 plays, from the Browns 36 to the Steelers 36
Punt4 plays, from the Steelers 14 to the Steelers 19
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter52 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Steelers 43 to the Steelers 37
Browns0Steelers16
Browns0Steelers17
Touchdown8 plays, from the Steelers 12 to the Browns 3
Intercepted6 plays, from the Browns 24 to the Browns 36
Browns0Steelers23
Browns0Steelers24
Touchdown6 plays, from midfield to the Browns 28
Browns6Steelers24
Browns7Steelers24
Touchdown13 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Steelers 13
Punt6 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Browns 39 to the Browns 48
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter33 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Browns 18 to the Browns 20
Punt10 plays, from the Browns 45 to the Browns 34
Turnover on downs4 plays, from the Browns 20 to the Browns 29
Browns7Steelers30
Browns7Steelers31
Touchdown9 plays, from the Browns 28 to the Browns 3
The period ended4 plays
4th quarter36 plays
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Browns 34 to the Steelers 45
Browns7Steelers37
Browns7Steelers38
Touchdown11 plays, from the Steelers 45 to the Browns 1
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Steelers 47
Punt5 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Browns 12 to the Browns 20
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
