2020 Week 6 · Sun, Oct 18, 2020 · Heinz Field

Cleveland Browns

Pittsburgh SteelersWinner

PIT -3 ✓U 50 ✓Steelers closed -3 and covered, winning by 31.

Pittsburgh Steelers 38–7 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 9:05, CLE +17% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 9:05CLE — PIT CLE ball · 3rd & 3PIT 63%

(9:05) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle intended for 88-H.Bryant INTERCEPTED by 39-M.Fitzpatrick at CLE 33. 39-M.Fitzpatrick for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 9:05CLE +17% win prob(9:05) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle intended for 88-H.Bryant INTERCEPTED by 39-M.Fitzpatrick at CLE 33. 39-M.Fitzpatrick for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 14:24PIT +7% win prob(14:24) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass deep left to 13-J.Washington to CLE 43 for 27 yards (39-T.Mitchell).
Q1 · 10:42CLE +5% win prob(10:42) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass incomplete deep middle to 85-E.Ebron. Coverage 56-Smith.
Q1 · 6:26CLE +5% win prob(6:26) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger sacked at PIT 24 for -12 yards (sack split by 93-B.Goodson and 29-S.Redwine).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Browns	Steelers
Offensive plays	54	58
Total yards	220	281 (edge)
Yards per play	4.1	4.8 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.51	0.13 (edge)
Success rate	37%	48% (edge)
Dropback rate	61%	43%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.53	0.02 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.49	0.21 (edge)
Third downs	1/12	5/13 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	4	7 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	10	17 (edge)
Sacks taken	4	2 (edge)
Turnovers	2	0 (edge)

Steelers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.13 expected points added per play vs -0.51.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · PIT

Ben RoethlisbergerQB

14/22, 162 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

1.1 expected points added · -2.0% completion over expected

Passing · CLE

Baker MayfieldQB

10/18, 119 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT

-13.5 expected points added · -9.4% completion over expected

Rushing · PIT

James ConnerRB

20 att, 101 yds, 1 TD

5.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CLE

Kareem HuntRB

13 att, 40 yds, 0 TD

-5.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · PIT

Chase ClaypoolWR

4/4 for 74 yds, 0 TD

17% of team targets · 5.5 expected points added

Receiving · PIT

James WashingtonWR

4/7 for 68 yds, 1 TD

30% of team targets · 4.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	PIT	PIT 25	12	58	4:25	Turnover on downs
2	CLE	CLE 21	4	7	1:37	Defensive touchdown
3	CLE	CLE 25	5	1	1:44	Punt
4	PIT	PIT 35	4	-11	1:44	Punt
5	CLE	CLE 36	6	21	2:53	Punt
6	PIT	PIT 14	4	5	1:33	Punt
7	CLE	CLE 46	6	17	1:59	Punt
8	PIT	PIT 12	8	73	3:37	Touchdown
9	CLE	CLE 24	5	20	2:47	Interception
10	PIT	50	5	45	1:58	Touchdown
11	CLE	CLE 25	11	65	4:42	Touchdown
12	PIT	PIT 24	5	-2	0:28	Punt
13	CLE	CLE 39	4	19	0:31	Punt
14	PIT	PIT 21	1	0	0:02	End of half
15	CLE	CLE 18	5	-11	2:12	Punt
16	PIT	CLE 45	9	25	5:07	Punt
17	CLE	CLE 20	4	8	1:46	Turnover on downs
18	PIT	CLE 28	9	28	5:03	Touchdown
19	CLE	CLE 16	8	39	2:09	Turnover on downs
20	PIT	PIT 45	10	55	5:35	Touchdown
21	CLE	CLE 25	6	26	2:01	Turnover on downs
22	PIT	PIT 49	4	5	2:50	Punt
23	CLE	CLE 12	4	8	1:33	Punt
24	PIT	CLE 48	3	0	1:44	End of game

0 of 24 drives ended in points. Longest march: Steelers gained 73 scrimmage yards over 8 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Cleveland Browns

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Baker Mayfield	10/18	119	1	2	4	-13.5
Case Keenum	5/10	46	0	0	0	-4.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Kareem Hunt	13	40	3.1	-5.4
Dontrell Hilliard	4	29	7.3	-0.2
Baker Mayfield	1	5	5.0	0.1
D'Ernest Johnson	4	1	0.3	-4.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Austin Hooper	5	6	52	0	23%	0.1
Jarvis Landry	3	5	40	0	19%	-1.5
Odell Beckham	2	3	25	0	12%	0.0
Kareem Hunt	2	3	17	0	12%	-0.4
Rashard Higgins	1	2	13	1	8%	-0.2
Harrison Bryant	1	2	11	0	8%	-6.4
David Njoku	1	3	7	0	12%	-1.3
D'Ernest Johnson	0	1	0	0	4%	-0.4
Donovan Peoples-Jones	0	1	0	0	4%	-0.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
B.J. Goodson	5	4	0.5	0
Larry Ogunjobi	4	1	0.0	0
Andrew Sendejo	2	3	0.0	0
Terrance Mitchell	3	2	0.0	2
Sheldrick Redwine	2	2	0.5	0
Mack Wilson	2	2	0.0	0
Malcolm Smith	4	0	0.0	0
Sheldon Richardson	1	3	0.0	0
Myles Garrett	3	1	1.0	0
Denzel Ward	1	2	0.0	1

Pittsburgh Steelers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Ben Roethlisberger	14/22	162	1	0	2	1.1
Mason Rudolph	1/1	6	0	0	0	-0.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
James Conner	20	101	5.0	1	5.4
Benny Snell	6	17	2.8	1	0.5
Chase Claypool	2	7	3.5	1	0.6
Ben Roethlisberger	3	5	1.7	0	1.9
Anthony McFarland	3	2	0.7	0	-1.4
Mason Rudolph	3	-3	-1.0	0	-2.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Chase Claypool	4	4	74	0	17%	5.5
James Washington	4	7	68	1	30%	4.0
Eric Ebron	2	4	9	0	17%	-2.4
Anthony McFarland	1	1	6	0	4%	-0.6
JuJu Smith-Schuster	2	4	6	0	17%	-0.6
Benny Snell	1	1	4	0	4%	-0.2
James Conner	1	1	1	0	4%	-1.0
Ray-Ray McCloud	0	1	0	0	4%	-1.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Cameron Heyward	4	2	0.0	0	0
Robert Spillane	4	1	0.0	0	0
Devin Bush	2	3	0.5	0	0
Stephon Tuitt	3	1	0.5	0	0
Bud Dupree	4	0	2.0	0	0
Vince Williams	1	3	0.0	0	0
Steven Nelson	3	0	0.0	0	0
T.J. Watt	2	1	0.0	0	0
Cameron Sutton	2	0	1.0	1	1
Olasunkanmi Adeniyi	2	0	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: PIT -3
Closing total: 50
CLE moneyline: +143
PIT moneyline: -159

Steelers closed -3 and covered, winning by 31.

Total closed 50; the game landed 45 — under by 5.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Heinz Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 61°F, wind 9 mph
Referee: John Hussey
Rest: CLE 7 days · PIT 7 days
Coaches: Kevin Stefanski vs Mike Tomlin

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.