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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:48 AM ET · 16 to play
Denver Broncos 18 at New England Patriots 12. Final.
Patriots -7 upsetU 43.5 ✓
The verdict · 2020 Week 6
Denver Broncos 18, Patriots 12 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 1:03, 4th and 10, on Cam Newton — 25.0 win-probability points to the Broncos on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 1:03 · 4th and 10
Cam Newton
Broncos
(1:03) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass incomplete short right to 15-N.Harry [96-S.Harris].
Patriots closed -7 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Denver Broncos 18–12. Biggest swing: Q4 1:03, Broncos +25.0% win probability on one snap.
25.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Ryan IzzoBroncosQ3 2:20(2:20) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short middle to 85-R.Izzo to DEN 42 for 16 yards (23-M.Ojemudia). FUMBLES (23-M.Ojemudia), RECOVERED by DEN-31-J.Simmons at DEN 40. 31-J.Simmons to NE 42 for 18 yards (19-I.Zuber; 11-J.Edelman).
15.7pts
Cam NewtonPatriotsQ4 2:01(2:01) 1-C.Newton up the middle to DEN 37 for 4 yards (90-D.Williams; 45-A.Johnson).
15.3pts
What separated them
Red zone
Patriots owned this one and still lost it — 1 touchdown on 3 trips, against Broncos at 0 touchdowns on 2 trips.
Patriotsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Broncos won this one — 2 giveaways, against Patriots at 3 giveaways.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Patriots owned this one and still lost it — 43% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Broncos at 37% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Patriotsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Broncos won this one — 6 chunk plays, against Patriots at 4 chunk plays.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 11.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 26 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Broncos.
MarketModelmodel higher on Patriotshigher on Broncos148 of 157 plays carry both curves
(1:03) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass incomplete short right to 15-N.Harry [96-S.Harris].
Swing −25.0 for PatriotsExpected points −2.23 for PatriotsThe model had Broncos 3 points higher than the market did.play 152
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 1:03DEN +25% win prob(1:03) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass incomplete short right to 15-N.Harry [96-S.Harris].
3rd · 2:20DEN +16% win prob(2:20) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short middle to 85-R.Izzo to DEN 42 for 16 yards (23-M.Ojemudia). FUMBLES (23-M.Ojemudia), RECOVERED by DEN-31-J.Simmons at DEN 40. 31-J.Simmons to NE 42 for 18 yards (19-I.Zuber; 11-J.Edelman).
4th · 2:01NE +15% win prob(2:01) 1-C.Newton up the middle to DEN 37 for 4 yards (90-D.Williams; 45-A.Johnson).
4th · 5:25DEN +15% win prob(5:25) (Shotgun) 3-D.Lock pass deep left intended for 81-T.Patrick INTERCEPTED by 27-J.Jackson at NE 45. 27-J.Jackson pushed ob at DEN 25 for 30 yards (28-R.Freeman).
4th · 1:27NE +14% win prob(1:27) (Shotgun) 11-J.Edelman pass short right to 1-C.Newton pushed ob at DEN 24 for 16 yards (31-J.Simmons). double reverse pass
4th · 1:14DEN +13% win prob(1:14) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton sacked at DEN 30 for -6 yards (59-M.Reed).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Brandon McManus's 45-yard field goal with 13:07 left in the 1st put Denver Broncos ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
Lead
1st13:07Brandon McManus·45-yd field goal45-yard field goalholder S.Martin · snap J.BobenmoyerLead never changed again+33–0
1st8:10Brandon McManus·44-yd field goal44-yard field goalholder S.Martin · snap J.Bobenmoyer+36–0
2nd12:17Brandon McManus·27-yd field goal27-yard field goalholder S.Martin · snap J.Bobenmoyer+39–0
2nd5:24Nick Folk·41-yd field goal41-yard field goalholder J.Bailey · snap J.Cardona+39–3
2nd0:24Brandon McManus·52-yd field goal52-yard field goalholder S.Martin · snap J.Bobenmoyer+312–3
3rd3:34Brandon McManus·20-yd field goal20-yard field goalholder S.Martin · snap J.Bobenmoyer+315–3
3rd0:42Brandon McManus·54-yd field goal54-yard field goalholder S.Martin · snap J.Bobenmoyer+318–3
4th8:33Cam Newton·1-yd TD run1-yard rushing touchdowntwo-point no good+618–9
4th3:27Nick Folk·38-yd field goal38-yard field goalholder J.Bailey · snap J.Cardona+318–12
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Broncoscategory by categoryPatriots
Broncos4–5Patriots
303Total yards289
5.0Yards per play5.2
37%Success rate43%
31%Third-down rate38%
0Red-zone touchdowns1
6Explosive plays4
14First downs16
2Sacks taken4
2Turnovers3
The read
Patriots ahead 5–4 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.39 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.13Broncos: −0.13 expected points added per play
−0.28Patriots: −0.28 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.23Broncos: −0.23 expected points added per play
−0.39Patriots: −0.39 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.05Broncos: −0.05 expected points added per play
−0.11Patriots: −0.11 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Broncos ran 60 snaps at a 45% dropback rate against Patriots’s 56 at 61%. Red-zone trips: Broncos 2, Patriots 3.
NoteBroncos won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.13 expected points added per play vs -0.28.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
DEN's early-down pass rate, 36.2%, was the lowest of the 28 team-games charted in week 6 — 1.0 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous low of 42.6% in week 4.
47 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 15.4 points.
DEN's sack or hit rate, 23.5%, is past their previous high of 16.1% in week 4 — the highest of their 5 charted games through week 6.
34 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.5 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -37 pts to 23 pts
leaned — got home · +8.6 vs their 14.9%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (+1.32× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Patriots14.8%
right on their number · +2.7 vs their 12.2%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (+0.39× that swing) · 27 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteDEN's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 23.5%, 8.6 points above their season mean of 14.9% and 1.3 times their own 6.5-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Patriots attack right, the Broncos attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Broncos←Patriots→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
C.Newton pass−22% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(1:03) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass incomplete short right to 15-N.Harry [96-S.Harris].
Q4 1:03 · Patriots · 4th & 10 at DEN 24 · gained nothing · -2.23 EP · −21.8% win probability
146 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 157 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 157 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was DEN moving 83 yards from the DEN 9 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NE attacks right, DEN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
157 of 157 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
157
EPA per play
-0.11
Success rate
37%
Yards
587
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Patriots1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR40-0.1463%
Broncos1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR29-0.3452%
Broncos1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR21-0.0143%
Patriots2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR13-0.4331%
Broncos2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR7+0.2814%
Patriots1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR2——
Broncos2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Broncos1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Patriots2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
157 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
157 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter34 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
Broncos3Patriots0
Field goal7 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Patriots 27
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw1.9 seconds
Intercepted7 plays, from the Patriots 17 to the Patriots 45
Broncos6Patriots0
Field goal4 plays, from the Patriots 33 to the Patriots 25
Punt9 plays, from the Patriots 32 to the Broncos 39
The period ended6 plays, from the Broncos 9 to the Broncos 33
2nd quarter39 plays
Broncos9Patriots0
Field goal8 plays, from the Broncos 42 to the Patriots 8
Broncos9Patriots3
Field goal13 plays, from the Patriots 19 to the Broncos 19
Broncos12Patriots3
Field goal15 plays, from the Broncos 18 to the Patriots 21
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter34 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Patriots 29
Broncos15Patriots3
Field goal16 plays, from the Broncos 15 to the Patriots 2
Fumble lost5 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Patriots 42
Broncos18Patriots3
Field goal4 plays, from the Patriots 42 to the Patriots 36
Intercepted2 plays
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter50 plays
Punt3 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Patriots 8 to the Patriots 17
Punt6 plays, from the Broncos 30 to the Broncos 39
Broncos18Patriots9
Touchdown6 plays, from the Patriots 35 to the Broncos 1
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.0 seconds
Intercepted6 plays, from the Broncos 17 to the Broncos 40
Broncos18Patriots12
Field goal4 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Broncos 20
Intercepted2 plays
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.1 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSix
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldTwo backs and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerSevenPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.7 seconds
Turnover on downs14 plays, from the Patriots 28 to the Broncos 24
The period ended5 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Patriots -7
Closing total
43.5
Broncos moneyline
+280
Patriots moneyline
-328
Patriots closed -7 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 43.5; the game landed 30 — under by 13.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Gillette Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Cool, 59°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 7 mph out of the south-east; partly cloudy.
Referee
Scott Novak
Rest
Broncos 17 days · Patriots 13 days
Coaches
Vic Fangio vs Bill Belichick
2nd · 13:35NE +10% win prob(13:35) (Shotgun) 3-D.Lock pass short middle to 85-A.Okwuegbunam to NE 11 for 27 yards (35-K.Dugger).
3rd · 9:52NE +9% win prob(9:52) (Shotgun) 3-D.Lock pass deep right to 81-T.Patrick pushed ob at NE 40 for 35 yards (30-J.McCourty). DEN-81-T.Patrick was injured during the play.
