2020 Week 6 · Sun, Oct 18, 2020 · Gillette Stadium

Denver BroncosWinner

New England Patriots

NE -7 upsetU 43.5 ✓Patriots closed -7 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Denver Broncos 18–12. Biggest swing: Q4 1:03, DEN +25% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 1:03DEN — NE NE ball · 4th & 10DEN 74%

(1:03) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass incomplete short right to 15-N.Harry [96-S.Harris].

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 1:03DEN +25% win prob(1:03) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass incomplete short right to 15-N.Harry [96-S.Harris].
Q3 · 2:20DEN +16% win prob(2:20) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short middle to 85-R.Izzo to DEN 42 for 16 yards (23-M.Ojemudia). FUMBLES (23-M.Ojemudia), RECOVERED by DEN-31-J.Simmons at DEN 40. 31-J.Simmons to NE 42 for 18 yards (19-I.Zuber; 11-J.Edelman).
Q4 · 2:01NE +15% win prob(2:01) 1-C.Newton up the middle to DEN 37 for 4 yards (90-D.Williams; 45-A.Johnson).
Q4 · 5:25DEN +15% win prob(5:25) (Shotgun) 3-D.Lock pass deep left intended for 81-T.Patrick INTERCEPTED by 27-J.Jackson at NE 45. 27-J.Jackson pushed ob at DEN 25 for 30 yards (28-R.Freeman).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Broncos	Patriots
Offensive plays	60	56
Total yards	303 (edge)	289
Yards per play	5.0	5.2 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.13 (edge)	-0.28
Success rate	37%	43% (edge)
Dropback rate	45%	61%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.23 (edge)	-0.39
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.05 (edge)	-0.11
Third downs	4/13	5/13 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6 (edge)	4
First downs gained on snaps	14	16 (edge)
Sacks taken	2 (edge)	4
Turnovers	2 (edge)	3

Broncos won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.13 expected points added per play vs -0.28.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · DEN

Drew LockQB

10/24, 189 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT

-5.0 expected points added · -10.9% completion over expected

Passing · NE

Cam NewtonQB

17/25, 157 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT

-12.8 expected points added · -0.5% completion over expected

Rushing · DEN

Phillip LindsayRB

23 att, 101 yds, 0 TD

-2.5 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NE

Cam NewtonQB

10 att, 76 yds, 1 TD

5.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · DEN

Tim PatrickWR

4/8 for 101 yds, 0 TD

33% of team targets · 1.7 expected points added

Receiving · NE

James WhiteRB

8/9 for 65 yds, 0 TD

33% of team targets · -3.3 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	DEN	DEN 25	7	48	1:58	Turnover on downs
2	NE	NE 17	7	28	3:30	Interception
3	DEN	NE 33	4	8	1:27	Turnover on downs
4	NE	NE 32	9	27	4:58	Punt
5	DEN	DEN 9	13	83	5:54	Turnover on downs
6	NE	NE 19	13	74	6:53	Turnover on downs
7	DEN	DEN 18	13	48	5:01	Turnover on downs
8	NE	NE 25	2	0	0:19	End of half
9	NE	NE 25	5	0	2:21	Punt
10	DEN	DEN 15	15	79	9:07	Turnover on downs
11	NE	NE 25	5	33	1:24	Fumble
12	DEN	NE 42	4	6	1:31	Turnover on downs
13	NE	NE 25	2	0	0:05	Interception
14	DEN	NE 39	4	0	1:29	Punt
15	NE	NE 8	4	9	2:09	Punt
16	DEN	DEN 30	4	9	1:40	Punt
17	NE	NE 35	6	65	1:43	Touchdown
18	DEN	DEN 17	6	22	3:16	Interception
19	NE	DEN 25	4	5	1:52	Turnover on downs
20	DEN	DEN 25	2	0	0:09	Interception
21	NE	NE 28	12	48	2:15	Turnover on downs
22	DEN	DEN 24	3	0	0:59	End of game

0 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Broncos gained 83 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a turnover on downs.

Full stat lines

Box score

Denver Broncos

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Drew Lock	10/24	189	0	2	2	-5.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Phillip Lindsay	23	101	4.4	-2.5
Royce Freeman	8	26	3.3	0.7
Diontae Spencer	1	9	9.0	0.8
Drew Lock	5	-1	-0.2	-2.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Tim Patrick	4	8	101	33%	1.7
Albert Okwuegbunam	2	6	45	25%	0.7
Jerry Jeudy	2	5	32	21%	0.0
Nick Vannett	1	1	7	4%	0.3
Royce Freeman	1	1	4	4%	-0.1
Diontae Spencer	0	1	0	4%	-0.5
DaeSean Hamilton	0	2	0	8%	-3.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Justin Simmons	7	0	0.0	0	0
Alexander Johnson	3	4	0.0	0	0
Michael Ojemudia	6	0	0.0	0	1
Kareem Jackson	4	2	0.0	0	0
Josey Jewell	2	3	0.0	0	0
Malik Reed	3	2	2.0	0	0
Bradley Chubb	2	2	1.0	0	0
Shelby Harris	2	1	0.0	0	2
DeShawn Williams	0	3	0.0	1	1
Anthony Chickillo	2	0	1.0	0	0

New England Patriots

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Cam Newton	17/25	157	0	2	4	-12.8
Julian Edelman	2/2	38	0	0	0	3.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Cam Newton	10	76	7.6	1	5.7
Damien Harris	6	19	3.2	0	-1.4
Rex Burkhead	5	14	2.8	0	-1.5
James White	4	8	2.0	0	-2.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
James White	8	9	65	33%	-3.3
Damiere Byrd	3	4	38	15%	1.8
Ryan Izzo	3	3	38	11%	-2.8
Cam Newton	1	1	16	4%	1.6
Isaiah Zuber	1	1	16	4%	1.5
Damien Harris	1	1	14	4%	0.9
Julian Edelman	2	6	8	22%	-2.5
N'Keal Harry	0	2	0	7%	-6.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Adrian Phillips	4	6	0.0	0	0
Ja'Whaun Bentley	6	4	0.5	0	0
Deatrich Wise	2	4	0.0	0	0
Kyle Dugger	4	1	0.0	0	0
John Simon	2	2	1.0	0	0
Jonathan Jones	3	1	0.0	1	3
Devin McCourty	4	0	0.0	0	0
Shilique Calhoun	1	1	0.5	0	0
Nick Thurman	1	1	0.0	0	0
Stephon Gilmore	1	1	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: NE -7
Closing total: 43.5
DEN moneyline: +280
NE moneyline: -328

Patriots closed -7 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 43.5; the game landed 30 — under by 13.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Gillette Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 58°F, wind 7 mph
Referee: Scott Novak
Rest: DEN 17 days · NE 13 days
Coaches: Vic Fangio vs Bill Belichick