2020 Week 6 · Sun, Oct 18, 2020 · TIAA Bank Stadium

Detroit LionsWinner

Jacksonville Jaguars

DET -3 ✓U 52.5 ✓Lions closed -3 and covered, winning by 18.

Detroit Lions 34–16 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 1:51, JAX +7% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 1:51DET — JAX DET ball · 1st & 10DET 76%

(1:51) 32-D.Swift up the middle to JAX 21 for 54 yards (26-J.Wilson).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 1:51JAX +7% win prob(1:51) 32-D.Swift up the middle to JAX 21 for 54 yards (26-J.Wilson).
Q1 · 7:04JAX +6% win prob(7:04) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew II pass deep right to 84-K.Cole Sr. ran ob at DET 38 for 35 yards (30-J.Okudah).
Q1 · 10:54JAX +6% win prob(10:54) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford scrambles up the middle to JAX 20 for 17 yards (29-J.Jones).
Q1 · 8:24JAX +5% win prob(8:24) 9-M.Stafford up the middle to JAX 9 for 2 yards (44-M.Jack).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Lions	Jaguars
Offensive plays	67	61
Total yards	408 (edge)	276
Yards per play	6.1 (edge)	4.5
Expected points added / play	0.17 (edge)	-0.13
Success rate	45% (edge)	33%
Dropback rate	48%	79%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.21 (edge)	-0.07
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.14 (edge)	-0.35
Third downs	3/11	7/13 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5 (edge)	3
First downs gained on snaps	21 (edge)	15
Sacks taken	0 (edge)	1
Turnovers	1 (edge)	2

Lions won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.17 expected points added per play vs -0.13.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · JAX

Gardner MinshewQB

25/44, 243 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-6.6 expected points added · -5.1% completion over expected

Passing · DET

Matthew StaffordQB

19/31, 223 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

4.1 expected points added · -0.4% completion over expected

Rushing · DET

D'Andre SwiftRB

14 att, 116 yds, 2 TD

7.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · DET

Adrian PetersonRB

15 att, 40 yds, 1 TD

-2.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · JAX

Keelan ColeWR

6/9 for 143 yds, 0 TD

20% of team targets · 8.4 expected points added

Receiving · DET

Kenny GolladayWR

4/6 for 105 yds, 0 TD

19% of team targets · 7.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	JAX	JAX 17	5	4	2:14	Punt
2	DET	50	11	37	5:09	Touchdown
3	JAX	JAX 25	12	62	5:46	Turnover on downs
4	DET	DET 25	8	75	3:10	Touchdown
5	JAX	JAX 25	2	0	0:10	Interception
6	DET	DET 37	6	9	2:19	Turnover on downs
7	JAX	JAX 46	8	25	3:10	Turnover on downs
8	DET	DET 22	11	75	6:09	Turnover on downs
9	JAX	JAX 25	9	18	1:26	Fumble
10	DET	JAX 43	4	3	0:26	Punt
11	JAX	JAX 20	1	0	0:01	End of half
12	DET	DET 25	4	0	1:18	Interception
13	JAX	DET 20	4	6	2:02	Turnover on downs
14	DET	DET 14	10	86	3:56	Touchdown
15	JAX	JAX 26	10	64	4:13	Touchdown
16	DET	DET 25	11	62	4:59	Touchdown
17	JAX	JAX 17	5	0	1:07	Punt
18	DET	DET 36	8	41	4:14	Turnover on downs
19	JAX	JAX 20	11	80	2:53	Touchdown
20	DET	JAX 44	5	9	0:46	Punt
21	JAX	JAX 20	7	17	1:01	Turnover on downs
22	DET	JAX 37	5	11	3:31	End of game

0 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Lions gained 86 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Detroit Lions

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Matthew Stafford	19/31	223	1	1	0	4.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
D'Andre Swift	14	116	8.3	2	7.2
Adrian Peterson	15	40	2.7	1	-2.4
Matthew Stafford	5	14	2.8	0	0.6
Kerryon Johnson	4	9	2.3	0	-0.8
Marvin Hall	1	1	1.0	0	-0.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Kenny Golladay	4	6	105	0	19%	7.0
Danny Amendola	2	2	31	0	6%	2.8
Adrian Peterson	1	1	18	0	3%	1.8
Jamal Agnew	2	2	17	0	6%	1.1
T.J. Hockenson	2	5	17	1	16%	2.2
Kerryon Johnson	1	2	11	0	6%	-1.9
Marvin Jones	2	5	8	0	16%	-5.5
D'Andre Swift	3	4	7	0	13%	-1.4
Marvin Hall	1	2	6	0	6%	-0.7
Jesse James	1	2	3	0	6%	-1.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Jeff Okudah	7	1	0.0	0
Jamie Collins	4	4	0.0	1
Tracy Walker III	4	2	0.0	1
Darryl Roberts	5	1	0.0	1
Trey Flowers	2	3	1.0	0
Jarrad Davis	1	3	0.0	0
Amani Oruwariye	2	0	0.0	2
Reggie Ragland	2	0	0.0	0
Christian Jones	1	1	0.0	0
Romeo Okwara	1	0	0.0	0

Jacksonville Jaguars

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Gardner Minshew	25/44	243	1	1	1	-6.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
James Robinson	12	29	2.4	0	-4.6
Gardner Minshew	3	14	4.7	1	3.5
Laviska Shenault Jr.	1	1	1.0	0	-0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Keelan Cole	6	9	143	0	20%	8.4
D.J. Chark	7	14	45	0	32%	-6.4
James Robinson	4	4	24	1	9%	0.8
Chris Thompson	3	4	15	0	9%	-4.8
Laviska Shenault Jr.	3	7	10	0	16%	0.6
Chris Conley	1	2	6	0	5%	0.6
Gardner Minshew	1	1	0	0	2%	-0.7
Tyler Davis	0	2	0	0	5%	-1.7
James O'Shaughnessy	0	1	0	0	2%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Joe Schobert	7	3	1	1
Josh Jones	8	2	0	0
C.J. Henderson	4	2	0	0
Sidney Jones	4	1	0	1
Brandon Rusnak	4	1	0	0
Jarrod Wilson	4	1	0	0
Myles Jack	3	1	0	0
Doug Costin	2	2	0	0
Adam Gotsis	2	0	0	1
Dawuane Smoot	1	1	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: DET -3
Closing total: 52.5
DET moneyline: -154
JAX moneyline: +139

Lions closed -3 and covered, winning by 18.

Total closed 52.5; the game landed 50 — under by 2.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: TIAA Bank Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 78°F, wind 10 mph
Referee: Shawn Hochuli
Rest: DET 14 days · JAX 7 days
Coaches: Matt Patricia vs Doug Marrone