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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:20 AM ET · 16 to play
2020 Week 6 · Sun, Oct 18, 2020 · TIAA Bank Stadium
Final
LionsDetroit34
BY 18final margin
JaguarsJacksonville16
Detroit Lions 34 at Jacksonville Jaguars 16. Final.
Lions -3 ✓U 52.5 ✓
The verdict · 2020 Week 6
Detroit Lions 34, Jaguars 16 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 1:51, 1st and 10, on D'Andre Swift — 7.0 win-probability points to the Lions on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 1:51 · 1st and 10
D'Andre Swift
Lions
(1:51) 32-D.Swift up the middle to JAX 21 for 54 yards (26-J.Wilson).
16.2 mph wind
Lions closed -3 and covered, winning by 18.
Detroit Lions 34–16 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 1:51, Lions +7.0% win probability on one snap. Played in 16.2 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
7.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Matthew StaffordLionsQ1 10:54(10:54) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford scrambles up the middle to JAX 20 for 17 yards (29-J.Jones).
5.9pts
K.ColeJaguarsQ1 7:04(7:04) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew II pass deep right to 84-K.Cole Sr. ran ob at DET 38 for 35 yards (30-J.Okudah).
6.3pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Lions won this one — +0.14 expected points per carry, against Jaguars at -0.35 expected points per carry.
Lionsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Jaguars owned this one and still lost it — 7 of 13 on third down, against Lions at 3 of 11 on third down.
Jaguarsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Lions won this one — 45% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Jaguars at 33% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Lionsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Lions won this one — +0.17 expected points per snap, against Jaguars at -0.13 expected points per snap.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 5.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 15 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jaguars.
MarketModelmodel higher on Jaguarshigher on Lions170 of 181 plays carry both curves
(1:51) 32-D.Swift up the middle to JAX 21 for 54 yards (26-J.Wilson).
Swing −7.0 for JaguarsExpected points −3.38 for JaguarsThe model had Jaguars 10 points higher than the market did.play 34
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 1:51JAX +7% win prob(1:51) 32-D.Swift up the middle to JAX 21 for 54 yards (26-J.Wilson).
1st · 7:04JAX +6% win prob(7:04) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew II pass deep right to 84-K.Cole Sr. ran ob at DET 38 for 35 yards (30-J.Okudah).
1st · 10:54JAX +6% win prob(10:54) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford scrambles up the middle to JAX 20 for 17 yards (29-J.Jones).
1st · 8:24JAX +5% win prob(8:24) 9-M.Stafford up the middle to JAX 9 for 2 yards (44-M.Jack).
3rd · 13:48DET +5% win prob(13:48) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle intended for 11-M.Jones INTERCEPTED by 47-J.Schobert (98-J.Sheard) at DET 22. 47-J.Schobert to DET 20 for 2 yards (77-F.Ragnow).
2nd · 13:45JAX +5% win prob(13:45) (Shotgun) 32-D.Swift up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 0:35
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Adrian Peterson's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 7:42 left in the 1st put Detroit Lions ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
Lead
1st7:42Adrian Peterson·1-yd TD run1-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+77–0
1st1:54Jon Brown·31-yd field goal31-yard field goalholder L.Cooke · snap R.Matiscik+37–3
Lions ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.17Lions: +0.17 expected points added per play
−0.13Jaguars: −0.13 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.21Lions: +0.21 expected points added per play
−0.07Jaguars: −0.07 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.14Lions: +0.14 expected points added per play
−0.35Jaguars: −0.35 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Lions ran 67 snaps at a 48% dropback rate against Jaguars’s 61 at 79%. Red-zone trips: Lions 5, Jaguars 5.
NoteLions won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.17 expected points added per play vs -0.13.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
DET's early-down pass rate, 38.9%, is past their previous low of 44.9% in week 3 — the lowest of their 5 charted games through week 6.
2.3 times their own weekly swing below their number.
54 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.7 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -13 pts to 14 pts
right on their number · +0.7 vs their 9.7%, and they swing ±4.8 week to week (+0.15× that swing) · 48 dropbacks
Jaguars12.5%
right on their number · −0.7 vs their 13.2%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (−0.10× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteDET's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 38.9%, 20.4 points below their season mean of 59.3% and 2.3 times their own 8.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Jaguars attack right, the Lions attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Lions←Jaguars→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Swift up+8% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(1:51) 32-D.Swift up the middle to JAX 21 for 54 yards (26-J.Wilson).
Q1 1:51 · Lions · 1st & 10 at DET 25 · gained 54 · +3.38 EP · +7.9% win probability
168 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 181 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 181 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was DET moving 86 yards from the DET 14 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; JAX attacks right, DET attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
181 of 181 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
181
EPA per play
+0.00
Success rate
37%
Yards
678
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Jaguars1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR53-0.0481%
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR34+0.3550%
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10+0.2370%
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR8+0.1013%
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR5+0.090%
Jaguars2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR4——
Lions1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Jaguars1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR3——
Lions0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR2——
Jaguars1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Lions0 RB, 0 TE, 5 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
181 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
181 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Jaguars 17 to the Jaguars 21
Lions6Jaguars0
Lions7Jaguars0
Touchdown13 plays, from midfield to the Jaguars 1
Lions7Jaguars3
Field goal13 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Lions 13
The period ended5 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Jaguars 20
2nd quarter53 plays
Lions13Jaguars3
Lions14Jaguars3
Touchdown4 plays, from the Jaguars 4 to the Jaguars 1
Intercepted2 plays
No good8 plays, from the Lions 37 to the Jaguars 39
No good8 plays, from the Jaguars 46 to the Lions 14
Lions17Jaguars3
Field goal12 plays, from the Lions 22 to the Jaguars 13
Fumble lost12 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Lions 45
Punt5 plays, from the Jaguars 43 to the Jaguars 40
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter1 plays
2nd quarter1 plays
The period ended1 play
3rd quarter38 plays
Intercepted3 plays
Turnover on downs4 plays, from the Lions 20 to the Lions 14
Lions23Jaguars3
Lions24Jaguars3
Touchdown11 plays, from the Lions 14 to the Jaguars 1
Lions24Jaguars9
Lions24Jaguars10
Touchdown12 plays, from the Jaguars 26 to the Lions 6
The period ended8 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Jaguars 28
4th quarter51 plays
Lions30Jaguars10
Lions31Jaguars10
Touchdown5 plays, from the Jaguars 26 to the Jaguars 6
Punt5 plays
Lions34Jaguars10
Field goal9 plays, from the Lions 36 to the Jaguars 23
Lions34Jaguars16
Touchdown11 plays, from the Jaguars 20 to the Lions 14
Punt8 plays, from the Jaguars 44 to the Jaguars 35
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Jaguars 20 to the Jaguars 37
The period ended6 plays, from the Jaguars 37 to the Jaguars 26
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
