For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants are available only for registry-approved public pages by appending .md to eligible URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown.
Sync your league to My Playbook for custom advice

2020 Week 6 · Sun, Oct 18, 2020 · Raymond James Stadium

Green Bay Packers

10

Tampa Bay BuccaneersWinner

38

GB -3 upsetU 55 ✓

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 38–10 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 11:17, GB +15% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3TB ↑GB ↓
Q2 · 11:17GB — TB GB ball · 3rd & 3GB 68%

(11:17) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle intended for 17-D.Adams INTERCEPTED by 32-M.Edwards (24-C.Davis) at GB 39. 32-M.Edwards to GB 2 for 37 yards (83-M.Valdes-Scantling; 74-E.Jenkins).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q2 · 11:17GB +15% win prob(11:17) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle intended for 17-D.Adams INTERCEPTED by 32-M.Edwards (24-C.Davis) at GB 39. 32-M.Edwards to GB 2 for 37 yards (83-M.Valdes-Scantling; 74-E.Jenkins).
  2. Q2 · 12:50GB +12% win prob(12:50) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left intended for 17-D.Adams INTERCEPTED by 35-J.Dean at GB 32. 35-J.Dean for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  3. Q2 · 3:41GB +9% win prob(3:41) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers sacked at GB 21 for -11 yards (54-L.David).
  4. Q2 · 8:26TB +8% win prob(8:26) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 14-C.Godwin to GB 39 for 6 yards (51-K.Barnes) [52-R.Gary]. PENALTY on GB-52-R.Gary, Face Mask (15 Yards), 15 yards, enforced at GB 39.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricPackersBuccaneers
Offensive plays6161
Total yards201324 (edge)
Yards per play3.35.3 (edge)
Expected points added / play-0.300.12 (edge)
Success rate34%41% (edge)
Dropback rate69%48%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)-0.360.24 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.160.01 (edge)
Third downs7/175/12 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)37 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps1318 (edge)
Sacks taken50 (edge)
Turnovers20 (edge)

Buccaneers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.12 expected points added per play vs -0.30.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · TB

Tom BradyQB

17/27, 166 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

6.5 expected points added · +3.0% completion over expected

Passing · GB

Aaron RodgersQB

16/35, 160 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT

-15.3 expected points added · -11.9% completion over expected

Rushing · TB

Ronald JonesRB

23 att, 113 yds, 2 TD

1.7 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · TB

Ke'Shawn VaughnRB

5 att, 42 yds, 0 TD

2.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · TB

Rob GronkowskiTE

5/8 for 78 yds, 1 TD

30% of team targets · 6.3 expected points added

Receiving · GB

Davante AdamsWR

6/10 for 61 yds, 0 TD

32% of team targets · -7.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1GBGB 2511544:33Turnover on downs
2TBTB 25592:07Punt
3GBGB 2012907:32Touchdown
4TBTB 189302:41Punt
5GBGB 22300:25Defensive touchdown
6GBGB 25471:37Interception
7TBGB 2220:03Touchdown
8GBGB 25500:22Punt
9TBTB 3512506:05Touchdown
10GBGB 255-41:53Punt
11TBTB 388621:40Touchdown
12GBGB 25621:02End of half
13TBTB 257432:46Turnover on downs
14GBGB 25551:37Punt
15TBTB 29400:24Punt
16GBGB 2410284:46Punt
17TBTB 158442:47Touchdown
18GBGB 25542:09Punt
19TBTB 308333:24Punt
20GBGB 127223:30Punt
21TBTB 18481:32Punt
22GBGB 304-72:11Punt
23TBTB 319434:54End of game

0 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Packers gained 90 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Green Bay Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Aaron Rodgers16/35160024-15.3

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Jamaal Williams4348.500.6
A.J. Dillon5316.20-0.0
Aaron Jones10151.51-3.6
Aaron Rodgers2147.002.1

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Davante Adams61061032%-7.5
Marquez Valdes-Scantling3532016%1.6
Aaron Jones3526016%1.3
Robert Tonyan3425013%1.0
Darrius Shepherd111603%1.0
Jamaal Williams01003%-0.8
Equanimeous St. Brown02006%-1.1
Malik Taylor01003%-0.8
Marcedes Lewis02006%-1.5

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Krys Barnes730.000
Josh Jackson410.000
Darnell Savage320.000
Ty Summers320.000
Kenny Clark220.000
Montravius Adams210.000
Chandon Sullivan210.000
Jamaal Williams200.000
Jaire Alexander200.000
Oren Burks200.000

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Tom Brady17/271662006.5
Blaine Gabbert0/10000-0.5

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Ronald Jones231134.921.7
Ke'Shawn Vaughn5428.402.4
Blaine Gabbert320.70-3.1
LeSean McCoy410.30-3.7

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Rob Gronkowski5878130%6.3
Chris Godwin5748026%2.3
Mike Evans121007%0.4
Ronald Jones22807%-0.2
Tyler Johnson11714%3.0
LeSean McCoy11604%0.7
Scott Miller12607%-1.8
Cameron Brate11304%-0.9
Ke'Shawn Vaughn01004%-0.8
Cyril Grayson02007%-2.0

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Devin White911.000
Lavonte David621.500
Carlton Davis510.004
Jason Pierre-Paul241.500
Antoine Winfield320.000
Sean Murphy-Bunting310.000
Anthony Nelson200.000
Jamel Dean110.011
Jeremiah Ledbetter110.000
Ndamukong Suh101.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
GB -3
Closing total
55
GB moneyline
-145
TB moneyline
+131

Packers closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 55; the game landed 48 — under by 7.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Raymond James Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
88°F, wind 12 mph
Referee
Jerome Boger
Rest
GB 13 days · TB 10 days
Coaches
Matt LaFleur vs Bruce Arians