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2020 Week 6 · Sun, Oct 18, 2020 · Raymond James Stadium
Final
PackersGreen Bay10
BY 28final margin
BuccaneersTampa Bay38
Green Bay Packers 10 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers 38. Final.
Packers -3 upset
The verdict · 2020 Week 6
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 38, Packers 10 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q2 11:17, 3rd and 3, on Mike Edwards — 15.0 win-probability points to the Buccaneers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 11:17 · 3rd and 3
Mike Edwards
Buccaneers
(11:17) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle intended for 17-D.Adams INTERCEPTED by 32-M.Edwards (24-C.Davis) at GB 39. 32-M.Edwards to GB 2 for 37 yards (83-M.Valdes-Scantling; 74-E.Jenkins).
U 55 ✓
16.3 mph wind
Packers closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 38–10 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 11:17, Buccaneers +15.0% win probability on one snap. Played in 16.3 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
15.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Jamel DeanBuccaneersQ2 12:50(12:50) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left intended for 17-D.Adams INTERCEPTED by 35-J.Dean at GB 32. 35-J.Dean for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
12.0pts
Aaron RodgersBuccaneersQ2 3:41(3:41) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers sacked at GB 21 for -11 yards (54-L.David).
8.7pts
What separated them
Every snap
Buccaneers won this one — +0.12 expected points per snap, against Packers at -0.30 expected points per snap.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Buccaneers won this one — +0.24 expected points per dropback, against Packers at -0.36 expected points per dropback.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Buccaneers won this one — no giveaways, against Packers at 2 giveaways.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Buccaneers won this one — 7 chunk plays, against Packers at 3 chunk plays.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 7.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 19 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Buccaneers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Buccaneershigher on Packers161 of 167 plays carry both curves
(11:17) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle intended for 17-D.Adams INTERCEPTED by 32-M.Edwards (24-C.Davis) at GB 39. 32-M.Edwards to GB 2 for 37 yards (83-M.Valdes-Scantling; 74-E.Jenkins).
Swing +15.0 for BuccaneersExpected points +6.60 for BuccaneersThe model had Buccaneers 13 points higher than the market did.play 49
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 11:17GB +15% win prob(11:17) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle intended for 17-D.Adams INTERCEPTED by 32-M.Edwards (24-C.Davis) at GB 39. 32-M.Edwards to GB 2 for 37 yards (83-M.Valdes-Scantling; 74-E.Jenkins).
2nd · 12:50GB +12% win prob(12:50) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left intended for 17-D.Adams INTERCEPTED by 35-J.Dean at GB 32. 35-J.Dean for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 3:41GB +9% win prob(3:41) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers sacked at GB 21 for -11 yards (54-L.David).
2nd · 8:26TB +8% win prob(8:26) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 14-C.Godwin to GB 39 for 6 yards (51-K.Barnes) [52-R.Gary]. PENALTY on GB-52-R.Gary, Face Mask (15 Yards), 15 yards, enforced at GB 39.
1st · 14:14TB +7% win prob(14:14) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 33-A.Jones to GB 45 for 20 yards (23-S.Murphy-Bunting; 33-J.Whitehead).
2nd · 4:40TB +6% win prob(4:40) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 18-T.Johnson for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Ronald Jones's 2-yard rushing touchdown with 11:05 left in the 2nd put Tampa Bay Buccaneers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Lead
1st10:31Mason Crosby·39-yd field goal39-yard field goalholder J.Scott · snap H.Bradley+33–0
Buccaneers ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.36 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.30Packers: −0.30 expected points added per play
+0.12Buccaneers: +0.12 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.36Packers: −0.36 expected points added per play
+0.24Buccaneers: +0.24 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.16Packers: −0.16 expected points added per play
+0.01Buccaneers: +0.01 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Packers ran 61 snaps at a 69% dropback rate against Buccaneers’s 61 at 48%. Red-zone trips: Packers 1, Buccaneers 4.
NoteBuccaneers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.12 expected points added per play vs -0.30.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
TB's sack or hit rate, 28.6%, is past their previous high of 21.3% in week 3 — the highest of their 6 charted games through week 6.
42 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.8 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -16 pts to 29 pts
right on their number · +0.9 vs their 12.9%, and they swing ±4.7 week to week (+0.20× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
Buccaneers28.6%
leaned — got home · +11.6 vs their 17.0%, and they swing ±7.8 week to week (+1.49× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteTB's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 38.8%, 21.3 points below their season mean of 60.1% and 1.7 times their own 12.2-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Buccaneers attack right, the Packers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Packers←Buccaneers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
A.Rodgers pass−21% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(11:17) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle intended for 17-D.Adams INTERCEPTED by 32-M.Edwards (24-C.Davis) at GB 39. 32-M.Edwards to GB 2 for 37 yards (83-M.Valdes-Scantling; 74-E.Jenkins).
Q2 11:17 · Packers · 3rd & 3 at GB 32 · gained nothing · -6.60 EP · −20.9% win probability
159 snaps placed · 8 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 167 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 167 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was TB moving 85 yards from the TB 15 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; TB attacks right, GB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
167 of 167 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
167
EPA per play
-0.07
Success rate
36%
Yards
525
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Packers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR31-0.2268%
Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR29-0.0352%
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR16+0.2250%
Packers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14-0.3443%
Packers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR13-0.4885%
Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR11+0.0618%
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Packers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Packers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Buccaneers1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
Buccaneers0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
167 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
167 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter35 plays
Packers3Buccaneers0
Field goal12 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Buccaneers 21
Punt5 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Buccaneers 34
Packers9Buccaneers0
Packers10Buccaneers0
Touchdown13 plays, from the Packers 20 to the Buccaneers 1
The period ended4 plays, from the Buccaneers 18 to the Buccaneers 27
2nd quarter56 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Buccaneers 31 to the Buccaneers 48
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
Packers10Buccaneers6
Touchdown3 plays
Packers10Buccaneers7
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.7 seconds
Intercepted4 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Packers 32
Packers10Buccaneers13
Packers10Buccaneers14
Touchdown2 plays
Punt5 plays
Packers10Buccaneers20
Packers10Buccaneers21
Touchdown12 plays, from the Buccaneers 35 to the Packers 7
Punt5 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Packers 32
Packers10Buccaneers27
Packers10Buccaneers28
Touchdown10 plays, from the Buccaneers 38 to the Packers 12
The period ended8 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Packers 39
3rd quarter44 plays
Packers10Buccaneers31
Field goal7 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Packers 32
Punt5 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Packers 30
Punt4 plays
Punt11 plays, from the Packers 24 to the Packers 47
Packers10Buccaneers37
Packers10Buccaneers38
Touchdown10 plays, from the Buccaneers 15 to the Packers 1
Punt5 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Packers 29
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter32 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Buccaneers 34 to the Packers 37
Punt7 plays, from the Packers 12 to the Packers 45
Punt4 plays, from the Buccaneers 18 to the Buccaneers 26
Punt4 plays, from the Packers 30 to the Packers 34
The period ended10 plays, from the Buccaneers 31 to the Packers 21
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Packerscategory by categoryBuccaneers
Packers3
Buccaneers0
