2020 Week 6 · Sun, Oct 18, 2020 · Nissan Stadium

Houston Texans

Tennessee TitansWinner

TEN -4 ✓O 52 ✓Titans closed -4 and covered, winning by 6.

Tennessee Titans 42–36. Biggest swing: OT 9:19, TEN +43% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

OT · 9:19HOU — TEN TEN ball · 2nd & 8HOU 57%

(9:19) 17-R.Tannehill pass short right to 22-D.Henry to HOU 27 for 53 yards (32-L.Johnson). HOU-32-L.Johnson was injured during the play.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

OT · 9:19TEN +43% win prob(9:19) 17-R.Tannehill pass short right to 22-D.Henry to HOU 27 for 53 yards (32-L.Johnson). HOU-32-L.Johnson was injured during the play.
Q4 · 9:37TEN +34% win prob(9:37) 22-D.Henry right guard for 94 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 8:44TEN +27% win prob(8:44) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep left to 15-W.Fuller for 53 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 0:07TEN +21% win prob(:07) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short left to 11-A.Brown for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Texans	Titans
Offensive plays	67	71
Total yards	412	609 (edge)
Yards per play	6.1	8.6 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.28	0.41 (edge)
Success rate	48%	52% (edge)
Dropback rate	64%	62%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.49 (edge)	0.40
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.10	0.44 (edge)
Third downs	7/14	6/10 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	8	12 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	24	30 (edge)
Sacks taken	2	2
Turnovers	0 (edge)	2

Titans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.41 expected points added per play vs 0.28.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · TEN

Ryan TannehillQB

30/41, 366 yds, 4 TD, 1 INT

17.4 expected points added · +5.3% completion over expected

Passing · HOU

Deshaun WatsonQB

28/37, 335 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT

20.9 expected points added · +12.6% completion over expected

Rushing · TEN

Derrick HenryRB

22 att, 212 yds, 2 TD

10.6 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · HOU

David JohnsonRB

19 att, 57 yds, 1 TD

-2.0 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · HOU

Will FullerWR

6/11 for 123 yds, 1 TD

30% of team targets · 9.7 expected points added

Receiving · TEN

Anthony FirkserTE

8/9 for 113 yds, 1 TD

22% of team targets · 10.8 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	TEN	TEN 25	5	6	0:49	Punt
2	HOU	HOU 20	7	24	2:51	Punt
3	TEN	TEN 20	10	72	4:23	Touchdown
4	HOU	HOU 25	5	6	1:31	Punt
5	TEN	TEN 29	11	71	5:14	Touchdown
6	HOU	HOU 18	15	82	6:16	Touchdown
7	TEN	TEN 15	13	85	5:22	Touchdown
8	HOU	HOU 25	12	77	3:34	Turnover on downs
9	HOU	HOU 25	5	7	1:27	Punt
10	TEN	TEN 20	9	65	4:46	Turnover on downs
11	HOU	HOU 21	6	51	2:32	Touchdown
12	TEN	TEN 25	4	-15	0:18	Fumble
13	HOU	TEN 4	4	4	1:22	Touchdown
14	TEN	TEN 25	11	71	5:21	Turnover on downs
15	HOU	HOU 27	8	22	4:37	Punt
16	TEN	TEN 6	2	96	0:14	Touchdown
17	HOU	HOU 25	4	75	0:46	Touchdown
18	TEN	TEN 25	2	0	0:07	Interception
19	HOU	HOU 31	16	64	6:40	Touchdown
20	TEN	TEN 24	11	76	1:46	Touchdown
21	HOU	—	1	0	0:04	Turnover on downs
22	TEN	TEN 18	7	82	3:30	Touchdown

0 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Titans gained 96 scrimmage yards over 2 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Houston Texans

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Deshaun Watson	28/37	335	4	0	2	20.9
Randall Cobb	0/1	0	0	0	0	-0.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
David Johnson	19	57	3.0	1	-2.0
Deshaun Watson	4	26	6.5	0	2.2
Duke Johnson	4	9	2.3	0	-1.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Will Fuller	6	11	123	1	30%	9.7
Darren Fells	6	7	85	1	19%	6.3
Brandin Cooks	9	9	68	1	24%	8.1
Pharaoh Brown	2	2	28	0	5%	2.2
Randall Cobb	3	4	17	1	11%	0.8
David Johnson	1	2	12	0	5%	-1.4
Duke Johnson	1	2	2	0	5%	-2.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Tyrell Adams	4	2	1.0	0	2
Bradley Roby	5	1	0.0	1	2
Zach Cunningham	1	5	0.0	0	0
P.J. Hall	6	0	0.0	0	0
Justin Reid	4	2	0.0	0	1
Vernon Hargreaves	5	0	0.0	0	0
Brennan Scarlett	2	2	0.0	0	0
Eric Murray	3	1	0.0	0	0
Lonnie Johnson	4	0	0.0	0	0
J.J. Watt	4	0	1.0	0	1

Tennessee Titans

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Ryan Tannehill	30/41	366	4	1	2	17.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Derrick Henry	22	212	9.6	2	10.6
Jeremy McNichols	5	51	10.2	0	1.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Anthony Firkser	8	9	113	1	22%	10.8
Adam Humphries	6	6	64	1	15%	7.0
A.J. Brown	5	7	58	2	17%	5.4
Derrick Henry	2	5	52	0	12%	1.3
Kalif Raymond	3	4	32	0	10%	-0.3
Jonnu Smith	1	2	13	0	5%	1.5
Cameron Batson	1	1	13	0	2%	0.9
Jeremy McNichols	2	3	11	0	7%	-1.0
Geoff Swaim	2	3	10	0	7%	-0.8
Khari Blasingame	0	1	0	0	2%	-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Kevin Byard	6	2	0.0	0
Jayon Brown	1	6	0.0	0
Malcolm Butler	6	0	0.0	1
Jeffery Simmons	4	2	1.0	0
Kenny Vaccaro	2	3	0.0	1
Rashaan Evans	3	2	0.0	0
Harold Landry	3	1	0.5	0
DaQuan Jones	1	2	0.5	0
Kristian Fulton	3	0	0.0	0
Jadeveon Clowney	1	1	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: TEN -4
Closing total: 52
HOU moneyline: +169
TEN moneyline: -190

Titans closed -4 and covered, winning by 6.

Total closed 52; the game landed 78 — over by 26.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Nissan Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 61°F, wind 10 mph
Referee: Alex Kemp
Rest: HOU 7 days · TEN 5 days
Coaches: Romeo Crennel vs Mike Vrabel

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.