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1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 4.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 11 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Texans.
MarketModelmodel higher on Titanshigher on Texans180 of 193 plays carry both curves
(9:19) 17-R.Tannehill pass short right to 22-D.Henry to HOU 27 for 53 yards (32-L.Johnson). HOU-32-L.Johnson was injured during the play.
Swing +42.9 for TitansExpected points +3.72 for TitansModel and market agree here.play 188
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
Overtime · 9:19TEN +43% win prob(9:19) 17-R.Tannehill pass short right to 22-D.Henry to HOU 27 for 53 yards (32-L.Johnson). HOU-32-L.Johnson was injured during the play.
4th · 9:37TEN +34% win prob(9:37) 22-D.Henry right guard for 94 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 8:44TEN +27% win prob(8:44) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep left to 15-W.Fuller for 53 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 0:07TEN +21% win prob(:07) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short left to 11-A.Brown for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
4th · 14:18HOU +17% win prob(14:18) 3-S.Gostkowski 37 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.
3rd · 6:08HOU +14% win prob(6:08) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill sacked at TEN 16 for -9 yards (99-J.Watt). FUMBLES (99-J.Watt) [99-J.Watt], touched at TEN 10, RECOVERED by HOU-54-J.Martin at TEN 4.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Derrick Henry's 5-yard rushing touchdown with 6:35 left in overtime put Tennessee Titans ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st7:02Anthony Firkser·7-yd TD catch7-yard touchdown catchfrom Ryan Tannehillfrom Ryan Tannehill+70–7
1st0:18A.J. Brown·6-yd TD catch6-yard touchdown catchfrom Ryan Tannehillfrom Ryan Tannehill+70–14
4th0:07A.J. Brown·7-yd TD catch7-yard touchdown catchfrom Ryan Tannehillfrom Ryan Tannehill+736–36
Overtime6:35Derrick Henry·5-yd TD run5-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+636–42
12 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Texanscategory by categoryTitans
Texans1–6Titans
412Total yards609
6.1Yards per play8.6
48%Success rate52%
50%Third-down rate60%
4Red-zone touchdowns4
8Explosive plays12
24First downs30
2Sacks taken2
0Turnovers2
The read
Titans ahead 6–1 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Texans, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.49 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.28Texans: +0.28 expected points added per play
+0.41Titans: +0.41 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.49Texans: +0.49 expected points added per play
+0.40Titans: +0.40 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.10Texans: −0.10 expected points added per play
+0.44Titans: +0.44 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Texans ran 67 snaps at a 64% dropback rate against Titans’s 71 at 62%. Red-zone trips: Texans 6, Titans 8.
NoteTitans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.41 expected points added per play vs 0.28.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
TEN's early-down pass rate, 60.0%, is past their previous high of 52.5% in week 1 — the highest of their 5 charted games through week 6.
60 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.4 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 23 pts
right on their number · −0.2 vs their 13.9%, and they swing ±6.8 week to week (−0.04× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
Titans11.6%
right on their number · +1.0 vs their 10.6%, and they swing ±7.9 week to week (+0.13× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteHOU's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 57.1%, 9.2 points below their season mean of 66.3% and 1.6 times their own 5.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Titans attack right, the Texans attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Texans←Titans→
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
R.Tannehill pass+43% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(9:19) 17-R.Tannehill pass short right to 22-D.Henry to HOU 27 for 53 yards (32-L.Johnson). HOU-32-L.Johnson was injured during the play.
OT 9:19 · Titans · 2nd & 8 at TEN 20 · gained 53 · +3.72 EP · +42.9% win probability
178 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 193 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 193 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
12 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was TEN moving 94 yards from the TEN 6 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; TEN attacks right, HOU attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
193 of 193 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
193
EPA per play
+0.22
Success rate
45%
Yards
1021
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Texans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR38+0.3574%
Titans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR28+0.4079%
Titans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR23+0.5439%
Texans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR19+0.2347%
Titans1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR10+0.5060%
Titans2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR7+0.0457%
Texans1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR4——
Texans2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Texans1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Titans1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
Titans0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
Titans2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
193 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
193 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter44 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Titans 26
Punt7 plays, from the Texans 20 to the Texans 44
Texans0Titans6
Texans0Titans7
Touchdown11 plays, from the Titans 20 to the Texans 7
Punt5 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Texans 32
Texans0Titans13
Texans0Titans14
Touchdown11 plays, from the Titans 29 to the Texans 6
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter45 plays
Texans6Titans14
Texans7Titans14
Touchdown14 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Titans 1
Texans7Titans20
Texans7Titans21
Touchdown14 plays, from the Titans 15 to the Texans 22
Texans10Titans21
Field goal16 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Titans 20
3rd quarter43 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Texans 32
No good11 plays, from the Titans 20 to the Texans 9
Texans16Titans21
Texans17Titans21
Touchdown7 plays, from the Texans 21 to the Titans 1
Offense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerSix
Fumble lost4 plays
Texans23Titans21
Touchdown4 plays
The period ended12 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Texans 26
4th quarter53 plays
No good2 plays, from the Texans 29 to the Texans 19
Punt8 plays, from the Texans 27 to the Titans 39
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxEight defenders
Texans23Titans27
Texans23Titans29
Touchdown2 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.1 seconds
Texans29Titans29
Texans30Titans29
Touchdown4 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Texans 47
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.6 seconds
Intercepted2 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.7 seconds
Texans36Titans29
Touchdown19 plays, from the Texans 31 to the Titans 1
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.7 seconds
Texans36Titans35
Touchdown12 plays, from the Titans 24 to the Texans 7
Texans36Titans36
The period ended2 plays
Overtime8 plays
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.1 seconds
Texans36Titans42
Touchdown7 plays, from the Titans 18 to the Texans 5
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
