2020 Week 6 · Mon, Oct 19, 2020 · New Era Field

Kansas City ChiefsWinner

Buffalo Bills

KC -5.5 ✓U 55 ✓Chiefs closed -5.5 and covered, winning by 9.

Kansas City Chiefs 26–17. Biggest swing: Q3 1:24, BUF +9% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q3 · 1:24KC — BUF KC ball · 4th & 1KC 82%

(1:24) (Shotgun) 31-Darr.Williams left guard for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q3 · 1:24BUF +9% win prob(1:24) (Shotgun) 31-Darr.Williams left guard for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 11:29BUF +9% win prob(11:29) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 14-S.Diggs for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 5:01BUF +8% win prob(5:01) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 87-T.Kelce for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 11:35BUF +8% win prob(11:35) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep right to 14-S.Diggs [95-C.Jones]. PENALTY on KC-35-C.Ward, Defensive Pass Interference, 24 yards, enforced at KC 28 - No Play.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Chiefs	Bills
Offensive plays	71	50
Total yards	468 (edge)	206
Yards per play	6.6 (edge)	4.1
Expected points added / play	0.33 (edge)	-0.03
Success rate	62% (edge)	42%
Dropback rate	46%	62%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.51 (edge)	0.03
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.18 (edge)	-0.12
Third downs	10/15 (edge)	4/9
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	11 (edge)	3
First downs gained on snaps	27 (edge)	15
Sacks taken	1	0 (edge)
Turnovers	2	1 (edge)

Chiefs won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.33 expected points added per play vs -0.03.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · KC

Patrick MahomesQB

21/26, 225 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

16.1 expected points added · +13.1% completion over expected

Passing · BUF

Josh AllenQB

14/27, 122 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

-3.1 expected points added · -6.5% completion over expected

Rushing · KC

Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB

26 att, 161 yds, 0 TD

3.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · BUF

Josh AllenQB

8 att, 42 yds, 0 TD

5.1 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · KC

Demarcus RobinsonWR

5/6 for 69 yds, 0 TD

23% of team targets · 3.4 expected points added

Receiving · KC

Travis KelceTE

5/7 for 65 yds, 2 TD

27% of team targets · 4.8 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	BUF	BUF 26	5	0	0:37	Punt
2	KC	KC 17	9	33	4:14	Punt
3	BUF	BUF 32	11	38	4:27	Turnover on downs
4	KC	KC 25	7	75	2:37	Touchdown
5	BUF	BUF 25	15	51	6:43	Touchdown
6	KC	KC 25	14	86	6:26	Touchdown
7	BUF	BUF 25	10	11	3:49	Punt
8	KC	KC 10	5	38	1:01	Fumble
9	BUF	KC 49	2	15	0:06	Turnover on downs
10	KC	KC 20	10	29	4:31	Punt
11	BUF	BUF 13	5	17	1:24	Punt
12	KC	KC 18	14	87	7:47	Touchdown
13	BUF	BUF 25	5	9	1:51	Punt
14	KC	KC 6	10	45	5:20	Turnover on downs
15	BUF	BUF 25	8	62	2:33	Touchdown
16	KC	KC 13	13	75	4:38	Fumble
17	BUF	BUF 25	3	3	0:45	Interception
18	KC	BUF 38	2	0	1:11	End of game

0 of 18 drives ended in points. Longest march: Chiefs gained 87 scrimmage yards over 14 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Kansas City Chiefs

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Patrick Mahomes	21/26	225	2	0	1	16.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	26	161	6.2	0	3.4
Patrick Mahomes	10	36	3.6	0	-0.9
Darrel Williams	6	26	4.3	1	3.7
Darwin Thompson	3	17	5.7	0	0.4
Tyreek Hill	1	5	5.0	0	0.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Demarcus Robinson	5	6	69	0	23%	3.4
Travis Kelce	5	7	65	2	27%	4.8
Byron Pringle	2	2	46	0	8%	4.4
Tyreek Hill	3	3	20	0	12%	1.4
Darrel Williams	1	1	15	0	4%	1.9
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	4	4	8	0	15%	0.4
Nick Keizer	1	1	2	0	4%	-0.5
Ricky Seals-Jones	0	1	0	0	4%	-0.5
Mecole Hardman	0	1	0	0	4%	-0.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Daniel Sorensen	2	3	1	1
Bashaud Breeland	4	1	0	0
Charvarius Ward	3	1	0	1
Derrick Nnadi	2	2	0	0
Damien Wilson	3	1	0	0
Ben Niemann	2	1	0	0
Tyrann Mathieu	3	0	0	0
Anthony Hitchens	1	2	0	0
Byron Pringle	1	0	0	0
Taco Charlton	1	0	0	0

Buffalo Bills

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Josh Allen	14/27	122	2	1	0	-3.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Josh Allen	8	42	5.3	5.1
Devin Singletary	10	32	3.2	-1.4
Zack Moss	5	10	2.0	-1.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Stefon Diggs	6	8	46	1	32%	2.4
Cole Beasley	4	7	45	1	28%	-0.0
Devin Singletary	1	2	13	0	8%	-0.6
Tyler Kroft	1	2	7	0	8%	-0.1
Gabe Davis	1	1	7	0	4%	0.2
Isaiah McKenzie	1	1	4	0	4%	-0.1
John Brown	0	4	0	0	16%	-3.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Tremaine Edmunds	8	4	0
Jordan Poyer	7	1	0
Taron Johnson	6	0	0
Josh Norman	5	1	1
A.J. Klein	5	1	0
Justin Zimmer	1	4	0
Tre'Davious White	4	1	0
Quinton Jefferson	1	2	0
Ed Oliver	3	0	0
Vernon Butler	1	2	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: KC -5.5
Closing total: 55
KC moneyline: -230
BUF moneyline: +203

Chiefs closed -5.5 and covered, winning by 9.

Total closed 55; the game landed 43 — under by 12.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: New Era Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · astroturf
Kickoff weather: 51°F, wind 6 mph
Referee: Ronald Torbert
Rest: KC 8 days · BUF 6 days
Coaches: Andy Reid vs Sean McDermott