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DYNATYZE
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DYNATYZE
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Game Center
⏸live · 12s tick · as of 6:46 PM ET · 2 h ago · 1 live · 1 to play · 14 final
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 15.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 29 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bills.
MarketModelmodel higher on Billshigher on Chiefs156 of 166 plays carry both curves
(1:24) (Shotgun) 31-Darr.Williams left guard for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −9.3 for BillsExpected points −3.55 for BillsThe model had Bills 9 points higher than the market did.play 116
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 1:24BUF +9% win prob(1:24) (Shotgun) 31-Darr.Williams left guard for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 11:29BUF +9% win prob(11:29) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 14-S.Diggs for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 5:01BUF +8% win prob(5:01) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 87-T.Kelce for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 11:35BUF +8% win prob(11:35) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep right to 14-S.Diggs [95-C.Jones]. PENALTY on KC-35-C.Ward, Defensive Pass Interference, 24 yards, enforced at KC 28 - No Play.
4th · 4:24BUF +7% win prob(4:24) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right to 13-B.Pringle to BUF 30 for 37 yards (23-M.Hyde).
2nd · 12:22KC +7% win prob(12:22) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen left end to KC 28 for -3 yards (55-F.Clark).
3rd · 9:17
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Travis Kelce's 12-yard touchdown catch with 5:01 left in the 2nd put Kansas City Chiefs ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Lead
1st5:47Tyler Bass·48-yd field goal48-yard field goalholder C.Bojorquez · snap R.Ferguson+30–3
1st3:12Travis Kelce·11-yd TD catch11-yard touchdown catchfrom Patrick Mahomesfrom Patrick Mahomes+77–3
2nd5:01Travis Kelce·12-yd TD catch12-yard touchdown catchfrom Patrick Mahomesfrom Patrick Mahomes · kick no good, wide rightLead never changed again+613–10
4th2:00Harrison Butker·30-yd field goal30-yard field goalholder T.Townsend · snap J.Winchester+326–17
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Chiefscategory by categoryBills
Chiefs7–2Bills
468Total yards206
6.6Yards per play4.1
62%Success rate42%
67%Third-down rate44%
3Red-zone touchdowns2
11Explosive plays3
27First downs15
1Sacks taken0
2Turnovers1
The read
Chiefs ahead 7–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Bills, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.51 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.33Chiefs: +0.33 expected points added per play
−0.03Bills: −0.03 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.51Chiefs: +0.51 expected points added per play
+0.03Bills: +0.03 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.18Chiefs: +0.18 expected points added per play
−0.12Bills: −0.12 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Chiefs ran 71 snaps at a 46% dropback rate against Bills’s 50 at 62%. Red-zone trips: Chiefs 5, Bills 2.
NoteChiefs won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.33 expected points added per play vs -0.03.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
−2.5σtheir own normal+2.5σ
One dot per reading, placed at how far it sits from that club's own normal in that club's own standard deviations. 7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor.
KC's early-down pass rate, 41.8%, is past their previous low of 45.3% in week 1 — the lowest of their 6 charted games through week 6.
2.0 times their own weekly swing below their number.
A 2.7-swing turn from week 5.
55 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.4 points. · −2.0σ from their own normal
BUF's pass rate over expected, −2.0 pts, is past their previous low of +4.2 pts in week 3 — the lowest of their 6 charted games through week 6.
50 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.6 points. · −1.1σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -16 pts to 33 pts
right on their number · +0.5 vs their 15.6%, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (+0.09× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Bills12.1%
right on their number · −2.5 vs their 14.6%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (−0.41× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteKC's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 41.8%, 21.0 points below their season mean of 62.8% and 2.0 times their own 10.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Kansas City Chiefs
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 1 never used
77Andrew WylieOT · Every snap100%73 snaps
75Mike RemmersT · Every snap100%73 snaps
72Eric FisherT · Every snap100%73 snaps
15Patrick MahomesQB · Every snap100%73 snaps
67Daniel KilgoreC · Every snap100%73 snaps
11Demarcus RobinsonWR · Full-time95%69 snaps
10Tyreek HillWR · Full-time92%67 snaps
73Nick AllegrettiG · Full-time89%65 snaps
87Travis KelceTE · Full-time89%65 snaps
25Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB · Heavy rotation67%49 snaps
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bills attack right, the Chiefs attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Chiefs←Bills→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
P.Mahomes pass+10% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(5:01) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 87-T.Kelce for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 5:01 · Chiefs · 3rd & 7 at BUF 12 · gained 12 · +3.14 EP · +10.4% win probability
154 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 166 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 166 snaps. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was KC moving 82 yards from the KC 18 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BUF attacks right, KC attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
166 of 166 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
166
EPA per play
+0.14
Success rate
48%
Yards
672
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Chiefs1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR53+0.3743%
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR33-0.2255%
Bills1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR16+0.3956%
Chiefs1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR16+0.2825%
Chiefs1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Bills1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
166 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
166 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter41 plays
Punt5 plays
Punt9 plays, from the Chiefs 17 to midfield
Chiefs0Bills3
Field goal11 plays, from the Bills 32 to the Chiefs 30
Chiefs6Bills3
Chiefs7Bills3
Touchdown7 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Bills 11
The period ended8 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Bills 49
2nd quarter45 plays
Chiefs7Bills9
Chiefs7Bills10
Touchdown10 plays, from the Chiefs 46 to the Chiefs 4
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
Chiefs13Bills10
Touchdown14 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Bills 6
Punt11 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Chiefs 48
Fumble lost7 plays, from the Chiefs 10 to the Chiefs 32
No good2 plays, from the Chiefs 49 to the Chiefs 34
3rd quarter35 plays
Punt10 plays, from the Chiefs 20 to the Chiefs 49
Punt5 plays, from the Bills 13 to the Bills 30
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Chiefs19Bills10
Chiefs20Bills10
Touchdown16 plays, from the Chiefs 18 to the Bills 13
The period ended4 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Bills 27
4th quarter45 plays
Punt3 plays
Chiefs23Bills10
Field goal10 plays, from the Chiefs 6 to the Bills 16
Chiefs23Bills16
Chiefs23Bills17
Touchdown9 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Chiefs 8
Chiefs26Bills17
Field goal16 plays, from the Chiefs 13 to the Bills 12
Intercepted4 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Bills 28
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
