2020 Week 6 · Sun, Oct 18, 2020 · Levi's Stadium

Los Angeles Rams

San Francisco 49ersWinner

LA -2 upsetU 51 ✓Rams closed -2 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

San Francisco 49ers 24–16. Biggest swing: Q2 14:21, SF +16% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 14:21LA — SF SF ball · 4th & 2SF 59%

(14:21) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short middle to 85-G.Kittle for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN [69-S.Joseph]. caught at 33, 33 YAC

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 14:21SF +16% win prob(14:21) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short middle to 85-G.Kittle for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN [69-S.Joseph]. caught at 33, 33 YAC
Q3 · 2:39LA +12% win prob(2:39) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left intended for 11-J.Reynolds INTERCEPTED by 22-J.Verrett at SF -8. Touchback.
Q2 · 9:08SF +11% win prob(9:08) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 17-R.Woods for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 14:19SF +8% win prob(14:19) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short middle to 19-D.Samuel to LA 36 for 35 yards (43-J.Johnson III; 59-M.Kiser). caught at SF 24, 40 YAC

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Rams	49ers
Offensive plays	57	68
Total yards	311	392 (edge)
Yards per play	5.5	5.8 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.02	0.11 (edge)
Success rate	42% (edge)	41%
Dropback rate	68%	50%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.03	0.36 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.13 (edge)	-0.14
Third downs	4/12	5/13 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	7 (edge)	5
First downs gained on snaps	16	22 (edge)
Sacks taken	0	0
Turnovers	1	1

49ers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.11 expected points added per play vs 0.02.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · SF

Jimmy GaroppoloQB

23/33, 268 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

12.8 expected points added · +1.1% completion over expected

Passing · LA

Jared GoffQB

19/38, 198 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

-3.3 expected points added · -9.6% completion over expected

Rushing · LA

Darrell HendersonRB

14 att, 88 yds, 0 TD

2.7 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · SF

Raheem MostertRB

17 att, 65 yds, 0 TD

-0.9 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · SF

George KittleTE

7/10 for 109 yds, 1 TD

31% of team targets · 9.3 expected points added

Receiving · SF

Deebo SamuelWR

6/6 for 66 yds, 1 TD

19% of team targets · 1.7 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	SF	SF 24	8	76	3:21	Touchdown
2	LA	LA 25	7	19	1:44	Punt
3	SF	SF 10	7	18	3:28	Punt
4	LA	LA 38	4	2	1:05	Punt
5	SF	SF 13	11	93	6:08	Touchdown
6	LA	LA 36	12	69	5:11	Touchdown
7	SF	SF 25	15	81	7:16	Touchdown
8	LA	LA 25	5	12	0:38	Punt
9	SF	SF 13	6	23	1:09	End of half
10	LA	LA 29	8	52	2:54	Turnover on downs
11	SF	SF 25	5	-1	1:36	Punt
12	LA	LA 37	4	1	1:07	Punt
13	SF	SF 13	4	7	2:03	Punt
14	LA	LA 38	9	43	4:47	Interception
15	SF	SF 20	5	23	2:14	Punt
16	LA	LA 14	6	30	1:57	Punt
17	SF	SF 28	8	28	4:01	Punt
18	LA	LA 1	4	4	0:40	Punt
19	SF	SF 49	7	20	3:15	Turnover on downs
20	LA	LA 21	12	79	2:02	Touchdown
21	SF	SF 25	7	24	3:24	End of game

0 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: 49ers gained 93 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Los Angeles Rams

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jared Goff	19/38	198	2	1	0	-3.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Darrell Henderson	14	88	6.3	2.7
Robert Woods	2	11	5.5	0.7
Jared Goff	1	10	10.0	2.0
Malcolm Brown	2	4	2.0	-1.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Tyler Higbee	3	4	56	0	11%	3.4
Josh Reynolds	2	5	45	1	14%	-2.5
Robert Woods	4	10	29	1	27%	1.3
Gerald Everett	3	4	27	0	11%	-0.1
Malcolm Brown	3	4	18	0	11%	-0.6
Cooper Kupp	3	9	11	0	24%	-5.8
Van Jefferson	1	1	8	0	3%	1.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Micah Kiser	7	6	0
John Johnson	5	8	0
Taylor Rapp	6	3	0
Troy Hill	4	2	1
Leonard Floyd	2	3	0
Jalen Ramsey	3	1	0
Kenny Young	1	2	0
Sebastian Joseph	2	1	0
Greg Gaines	3	0	0
Morgan Fox	2	1	0

San Francisco 49ers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jimmy Garoppolo	23/33	268	3	0	0	12.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Raheem Mostert	17	65	3.8	-0.9
Jamycal Hasty	9	37	4.1	-1.4
Jerick McKinnon	6	18	3.0	-1.3
Jimmy Garoppolo	4	8	2.0	0.2
Deebo Samuel	1	-6	-6.0	-1.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
George Kittle	7	10	109	1	31%	9.3
Deebo Samuel	6	6	66	1	19%	1.7
Kendrick Bourne	2	3	44	0	9%	2.0
Brandon Aiyuk	2	3	12	1	9%	3.2
Raheem Mostert	2	2	11	0	6%	0.3
Jerick McKinnon	2	3	10	0	9%	-2.8
Trent Taylor	1	2	8	0	6%	0.7
Kyle Juszczyk	1	2	8	0	6%	-0.2
Jamycal Hasty	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Emmanuel Moseley	7	0	0	3
Fred Warner	6	1	0	0
Dre Greenlaw	7	0	0	0
Jimmie Ward	3	1	0	0
Jamar Taylor	3	0	0	1
Jason Verrett	3	0	1	2
Arik Armstead	0	2	0	1
Dion Jordan	2	0	0	0
Marcell Harris	2	0	0	1
Jamycal Hasty	1	0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: LA -2
Closing total: 51
LA moneyline: -124
SF moneyline: +112

Rams closed -2 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 51; the game landed 40 — under by 11.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Levi's Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 86°F, wind 10 mph
Referee: Carl Cheffers
Rest: LA 7 days · SF 7 days
Coaches: Sean McVay vs Kyle Shanahan

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.