For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 7.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 15 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about 49ers.
MarketModelmodel higher on 49ershigher on Rams166 of 178 plays carry both curves
(14:21) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short middle to 85-G.Kittle for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN [69-S.Joseph]. caught at 33, 33 YAC
Swing +15.6 for 49ersExpected points +6.55 for 49ersThe model had 49ers 13 points higher than the market did.play 40
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 14:21SF +16% win prob(14:21) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short middle to 85-G.Kittle for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN [69-S.Joseph]. caught at 33, 33 YAC
3rd · 2:39LA +12% win prob(2:39) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left intended for 11-J.Reynolds INTERCEPTED by 22-J.Verrett at SF -8. Touchback.
2nd · 9:08SF +11% win prob(9:08) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 17-R.Woods for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 14:19SF +8% win prob(14:19) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short middle to 19-D.Samuel to LA 36 for 35 yards (43-J.Johnson III; 59-M.Kiser). caught at SF 24, 40 YAC
2nd · 6:53SF +7% win prob(6:53) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short middle to 84-K.Bourne to SF 49 for 19 yards (43-J.Johnson III). cauaght SF 44, 5 YAC
3rd · 2:43LA +6% win prob(2:43) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short right to 10-C.Kupp (41-E.Moseley).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Deebo Samuel's 6-yard touchdown catch with 11:44 left in the 1st put San Francisco 49ers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Lead
1st11:44Deebo Samuel·6-yd TD catch6-yard touchdown catchfrom Jimmy Garoppolofrom Jimmy GaroppoloLead never changed again+70–7
2nd14:21George Kittle·44-yd TD catch44-yard touchdown catchfrom Jimmy Garoppolofrom Jimmy Garoppolo+70–14
2nd9:08Robert Woods·10-yd TD catch10-yard touchdown catchfrom Jared Gofffrom Jared Goff · kick blocked by D.Jordan+66–14
2nd1:51Brandon Aiyuk·2-yd TD catch2-yard touchdown catchfrom Jimmy Garoppolofrom Jimmy Garoppolo+76–21
3rd12:11Sam Sloman·42-yd field goal42-yard field goalholder J.Hekker · snap J.McQuaide+39–21
4th5:32Robbie Gould·49-yd field goal49-yard field goalholder M.Wishnowsky · snap T.Pepper+39–24
4th3:33Josh Reynolds·40-yd TD catch40-yard touchdown catchfrom Jared Gofffrom Jared Goff+716–24
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Ramscategory by category49ers
Rams2–549ers
311Total yards392
5.5Yards per play5.8
42%Success rate41%
33%Third-down rate38%
1Red-zone touchdowns2
7Explosive plays5
16First downs22
0Sacks taken0
1Turnovers1
The read
49ers ahead 5–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.36 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.02Rams: +0.02 expected points added per play
+0.1149ers: +0.11 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.03Rams: −0.03 expected points added per play
+0.3649ers: +0.36 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.13Rams: +0.13 expected points added per play
−0.1449ers: −0.14 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Rams ran 57 snaps at a 68% dropback rate against 49ers’s 68 at 50%. Red-zone trips: Rams 3, 49ers 3.
Note49ers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.11 expected points added per play vs 0.02.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
SF's early-down pass rate turned over: 66.0% in week 5 against 42.6% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
54 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.2 points.
LA's sack or hit rate turned over: 22.5% in week 5 against 8.8% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
34 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.6 points.
SF's sack or hit rate turned over: 19.4% in week 5 against 5.1% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
39 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.7 points.
SF's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 66.7% in week 5 against 20.0% here — they went for it then and took the kick now, a turn of 3.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
5 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 8 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 15.3 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 17 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −7.2 vs their 16.0%, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (−1.09× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
49ers5.1%
leaned — stayed blocked · −7.0 vs their 12.1%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (−1.04× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteSF's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 42.6%, 12.2 points below their season mean of 54.7% and 1.2 times their own 10.2-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Los Angeles Rams
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 2 never used
66Austin BlytheC · Every snap100%60 snaps
63Austin CorbettT · Every snap100%60 snaps
73David EdwardsT · Every snap100%60 snaps
79Rob HavensteinT · Every snap100%60 snaps
77Andrew WhitworthT · Every snap100%60 snaps
16Jared GoffQB · Every snap100%60 snaps
17Robert WoodsWR · Full-time95%57 snaps
10Cooper KuppWR · Full-time92%55 snaps
11Josh ReynoldsWR · Full-time83%50 snaps
89Tyler HigbeeTE · Heavy rotation75%45 snaps
27Darrell HendersonRB · Heavy rotation53%32 snaps
81Gerald EverettTE · Heavy rotation50%30 snaps
34Malcolm BrownRB · Rotational45%27 snaps
12Van JeffersonWR · Situational5%3 snaps
23Cam AkersRB · Situational2%1 snap
Inactive · 5
Brian AllenCObo OkoronkwoLBRaymond CalaisRBBrycen HopkinsTETrishton JacksonWR
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The 49ers attack right, the Rams attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Rams←49ers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Garoppolo pass+13% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(14:21) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short middle to 85-G.Kittle for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN [69-S.Joseph]. caught at 33, 33 YAC
Q2 14:21 · 49ers · 4th & 2 at LA 44 · gained 44 · +6.55 EP · +12.6% win probability
165 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 178 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 178 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was SF moving 93 yards from the SF 7 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; SF attacks right, LA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
178 of 178 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
178
EPA per play
+0.06
Success rate
40%
Yards
701
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Rams1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR42-0.0479%
49ers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR35+0.2869%
49ers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR15-0.1027%
Rams1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR15+0.1733%
49ers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14+0.1929%
49ers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
snapsepapass rate
178 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
178 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
Rams049ers6
Rams049ers7
Touchdown8 plays, from the 49ers 24 to the Rams 6
Punt7 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Rams 44
Punt7 plays, from the 49ers 10 to the 49ers 28
Punt4 plays, from the Rams 38 to the Rams 40
The period ended10 plays, from the 49ers 13 to the 49ers 48
2nd quarter52 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw1.8 seconds
Rams049ers13
Rams049ers14
Touchdown4 plays, from the Rams 47 to the Rams 44
Rams649ers14
Touchdown14 plays, from the Rams 36 to the 49ers 3
Rams649ers20
Rams649ers21
Touchdown19 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the Rams 2
Punt6 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Rams 33
The period ended9 plays, from the 49ers 13 to the 49ers 41
3rd quarter42 plays
Rams949ers21
Field goal9 plays, from the Rams 29 to the 49ers 19
Punt5 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the 49ers 26
Punt6 plays, from the Rams 37 to the Rams 43
Punt4 plays, from the 49ers 13 to the 49ers 20
Intercepted11 plays, from the Rams 38 to the 49ers 1
Punt5 plays, from the 49ers 20 to the 49ers 43
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter47 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Rams 20 to the Rams 39
Punt8 plays, from the 49ers 28 to the Rams 44
Punt4 plays, from the Rams 1 to the Rams 5
Rams949ers24
Field goal8 plays, from the 49ers 49 to the Rams 31
Rams1549ers24
Rams1649ers24
Touchdown11 plays, from the Rams 21 to the 49ers 40
Drive ended3 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the 49ers 35
The period ended6 plays, from the 49ers 35 to the 49ers 49
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Rams -2
Closing total
51
Rams moneyline
-124
49ers moneyline
+112
Rams closed -2 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 51; the game landed 40 — under by 11.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Levi's Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Warm, 82°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 10 mph out of the north-west; clear.
Referee
Carl Cheffers
Rest
Rams 7 days · 49ers 7 days
Coaches
Sean McVay vs Kyle Shanahan
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
3rd · 5:36
SF +6% win prob
(5:36) (No Huddle) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete deep left to 11-J.Reynolds. PENALTY on SF-41-E.Moseley, Defensive Pass Interference, 17 yards, enforced at SF 38 - No Play.
2nd · 9:03LA +6% win prob1-S.Sloman extra point is Blocked (96-D.Jordan), Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.
