For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
2020 Week 6 · Sun, Oct 18, 2020 · Hard Rock Stadium
Final
JetsNew York0
BY 24final margin
DolphinsMiami24
New York Jets 0 at Miami Dolphins 24. Final.
Dolphins -9.5 ✓U 46 ✓
The verdict · 2020 Week 6
Miami Dolphins 24, Jets 0 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 0:08, 4th and 18 — 2.7 win-probability points to the Dolphins on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 0:08 · 4th and 18
Unnamed on the sheet
Dolphins
(:08) 7-B.Mann punts 40 yards to end zone, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Touchback. PENALTY on NYJ-44-H.Langi, Face Mask (15 Yards), 15 yards, enforced at MIA 20.
Dolphins closed -9.5 and covered, winning by 24.
Miami Dolphins 24–0 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 0:08, Dolphins +2.7% win probability on one snap.
2.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Joe FlaccoDolphinsQ1 14:18(14:18) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass incomplete deep left to 19-B.Perriman (24-By.Jones).
2.4pts
Myles GaskinJetsQ1 14:01(14:01) (Shotgun) 37-M.Gaskin up the middle to MIA 43 for 5 yards (54-A.Williamson).
2.4pts
What separated them
Red zone
Dolphins won this one — 3 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Jets at 0 touchdowns on 1 trip.
Dolphinsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Dolphins won this one — 46% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Jets at 33% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Dolphinsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Dolphins won this one — -0.07 expected points per snap, against Jets at -0.33 expected points per snap.
Dolphinsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Dolphins won this one — -0.10 expected points per dropback, against Jets at -0.39 expected points per dropback.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 6.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 26 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jets.
MarketModelmodel higher on Dolphinshigher on Jets161 of 169 plays carry both curves
(:08) 7-B.Mann punts 40 yards to end zone, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Touchback. PENALTY on NYJ-44-H.Langi, Face Mask (15 Yards), 15 yards, enforced at MIA 20.
Swing +2.7 for DolphinsExpected points +1.51 for DolphinsThe model had Jets 11 points higher than the market did.play 38
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 0:08NYJ +3% win prob(:08) 7-B.Mann punts 40 yards to end zone, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Touchback. PENALTY on NYJ-44-H.Langi, Face Mask (15 Yards), 15 yards, enforced at MIA 20.
1st · 14:18NYJ +2% win prob(14:18) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass incomplete deep left to 19-B.Perriman (24-By.Jones).
1st · 14:01NYJ +2% win prob(14:01) (Shotgun) 37-M.Gaskin up the middle to MIA 43 for 5 yards (54-A.Williamson).
1st · 13:27NYJ +2% win prob(13:27) 37-M.Gaskin left guard to MIA 41 for -2 yards (95-Q.Williams).
1st · 3:24MIA +2% win prob(3:24) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass incomplete short right [90-S.Lawson]. PENALTY on MIA-43-A.Van Ginkel, Illegal Contact, 5 yards, enforced at MIA 49 - No Play.
1st · 0:51NYJ +2% win prob(:51) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short right to 19-B.Perriman to MIA 15 for 9 yards (25-X.Howard). PENALTY on NYJ-84-R.Griffin, Offensive Pass Interference, 10 yards, enforced at MIA 24 - No Play.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Adam Shaheen's 4-yard touchdown catch with 7:00 left in the 1st put Miami Dolphins ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
Lead
1st7:00Adam Shaheen·4-yd TD catch4-yard touchdown catchfrom Ryan Fitzpatrickfrom Ryan FitzpatrickLead never changed again+70–7
2nd11:22Preston Williams·3-yd TD catch3-yard touchdown catchfrom Ryan Fitzpatrickfrom Ryan Fitzpatrick+70–14
2nd1:57Durham Smythe·4-yd TD catch4-yard touchdown catchfrom Ryan Fitzpatrickfrom Ryan Fitzpatrick+70–21
3rd3:54Jason Sanders·24-yd field goal24-yard field goalholder M.Haack · snap B.Ferguson+30–24
4 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Jetscategory by categoryDolphins
Jets3–6Dolphins
263Total yards302
3.8Yards per play5.4
33%Success rate46%
12%Third-down rate11%
0Red-zone touchdowns3
6Explosive plays5
12First downs16
3Sacks taken2
1Turnovers2
The read
Dolphins ahead 6–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.39 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.33Jets: −0.33 expected points added per play
−0.07Dolphins: −0.07 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.39Jets: −0.39 expected points added per play
−0.10Dolphins: −0.10 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.20Jets: −0.20 expected points added per play
−0.05Dolphins: −0.05 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Jets ran 69 snaps at a 68% dropback rate against Dolphins’s 56 at 57%. Red-zone trips: Jets 1, Dolphins 5.
NoteDolphins won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.07 expected points added per play vs -0.33.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
MIA's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 33.3% in week 5 against 0.0% here — they went for it then and took the kick now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
4 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 9 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 15.9 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19 pts to 19 pts
right on their number · −3.7 vs their 13.1%, and they swing ±8.9 week to week (−0.42× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
Dolphins21.3%
inside their normal wobble · +5.8 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (+0.86× that swing) · 47 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNYJ's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 42.9%, 16.5 points above their season mean of 26.4% and 1.2 times their own 13.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Dolphins attack right, the Jets attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Jets←Dolphins→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
R.Fitzpatrick pass+5% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(10:20) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short right to 19-J.Grant to NYJ 37 for 8 yards (35-P.Desir).
Q1 10:20 · Dolphins · 1st & 10 at NYJ 45 · gained 8 · +0.45 EP · +5.3% win probability
159 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 169 plays across 28 drives, personnel groupings on 169 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
4 of 28 drives ended in points. The longest march was NYJ moving 68 yards from the NYJ 25 for a turnover on downs. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; MIA attacks right, NYJ attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
169 of 169 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
169
EPA per play
-0.24
Success rate
34%
Yards
565
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Jets1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR55-0.3673%
Dolphins1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR21+0.3043%
Dolphins1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR18-0.3872%
Dolphins2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR9+0.0767%
Jets1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6-0.8033%
Dolphins2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR5+0.1540%
Jets0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR4——
Dolphins2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR3——
Jets2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Jets1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Jets2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
169 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
169 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Jets 28
Punt4 plays, from the Dolphins 38 to the Dolphins 43
Punt4 plays, from the Jets 8 to the Jets 13
Jets0Dolphins6
Jets0Dolphins7
Touchdown9 plays, from the Dolphins 34 to the Jets 4
Punt15 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Dolphins 24
2nd quarter52 plays
Jets0Dolphins13
Jets0Dolphins14
Touchdown8 plays, from the Dolphins 35 to the Jets 3
Punt5 plays, from the Jets 9 to the Jets 14
Punt4 plays
Intercepted3 plays, from the Jets 18 to the Jets 22
Punt6 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Jets 20 to the Jets 24
Jets0Dolphins20
Jets0Dolphins21
Touchdown4 plays, from the Jets 48 to the Jets 4
Punt6 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Jets 33
Intercepted5 plays, from the Dolphins 28 to the Jets 16
The period ended7 plays, from the Jets 18 to the Jets 27
3rd quarter37 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Dolphins 24 to the Dolphins 31
Punt4 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Dolphins 46 to the Jets 45
Punt5 plays, from the Jets 6 to the Jets 23
Jets0Dolphins24
Field goal8 plays, from the Dolphins 40 to the Jets 7
No good7 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Dolphins 24
The period ended3 plays, from the Dolphins 45 to the Jets 46
4th quarter41 plays
Punt2 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Jets 10 to the Jets 32
Intercepted1 play
Punt9 plays, from the Jets 24 to the Dolphins 29
Punt4 plays, from the Dolphins 22 to the Dolphins 29
Turnover on downs14 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Dolphins 7
The period ended6 plays, from the Dolphins 7 to the Dolphins 21
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
