2020 Week 6 · Sun, Oct 18, 2020 · Hard Rock Stadium

New York Jets

Miami DolphinsWinner

MIA -9.5 ✓U 46 ✓15 mph windDolphins closed -9.5 and covered, winning by 24.

Miami Dolphins 24–0 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 0:08, NYJ +3% win probability on one snap. Played in 15 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 0:08NYJ — MIA NYJ ball · 4th & 18MIA 90%

(:08) 7-B.Mann punts 40 yards to end zone, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Touchback. PENALTY on NYJ-44-H.Langi, Face Mask (15 Yards), 15 yards, enforced at MIA 20.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 0:08NYJ +3% win prob(:08) 7-B.Mann punts 40 yards to end zone, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Touchback. PENALTY on NYJ-44-H.Langi, Face Mask (15 Yards), 15 yards, enforced at MIA 20.
Q1 · 14:18NYJ +2% win prob(14:18) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass incomplete deep left to 19-B.Perriman (24-By.Jones).
Q1 · 14:01NYJ +2% win prob(14:01) (Shotgun) 37-M.Gaskin up the middle to MIA 43 for 5 yards (54-A.Williamson).
Q1 · 13:27NYJ +2% win prob(13:27) 37-M.Gaskin left guard to MIA 41 for -2 yards (95-Q.Williams).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Jets	Dolphins
Offensive plays	69	56
Total yards	263	302 (edge)
Yards per play	3.8	5.4 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.33	-0.07 (edge)
Success rate	33%	46% (edge)
Dropback rate	68%	57%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.39	-0.10 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.20	-0.05 (edge)
Third downs	2/17 (edge)	1/9
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6 (edge)	5
First downs gained on snaps	12	16 (edge)
Sacks taken	3	2 (edge)
Turnovers	1 (edge)	2

Dolphins won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.07 expected points added per play vs -0.33.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · MIA

Ryan FitzpatrickQB

18/27, 191 yds, 3 TD, 2 INT

-5.2 expected points added · +0.7% completion over expected

Passing · NYJ

Joe FlaccoQB

21/44, 186 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-18.2 expected points added · -9.9% completion over expected

Rushing · MIA

Myles GaskinRB

18 att, 91 yds, 0 TD

0.9 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NYJ

Frank GoreRB

11 att, 46 yds, 0 TD

-2.8 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · NYJ

Breshad PerrimanWR

4/8 for 62 yds, 0 TD

21% of team targets · 1.3 expected points added

Receiving · MIA

Adam ShaheenTE

3/3 for 51 yds, 1 TD

10% of team targets · 5.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	NYJ	NYJ 25	5	3	0:59	Punt
2	MIA	MIA 38	4	3	1:25	Punt
3	NYJ	NYJ 8	4	5	0:57	Punt
4	MIA	MIA 34	9	66	4:44	Touchdown
5	NYJ	NYJ 25	12	51	6:55	Punt
6	MIA	MIA 35	8	50	3:44	Touchdown
7	NYJ	NYJ 9	5	-4	2:35	Punt
8	MIA	NYJ 46	4	-8	1:29	Punt
9	NYJ	NYJ 18	3	4	0:55	Interception
10	MIA	NYJ 34	4	0	1:57	Punt
11	NYJ	NYJ 20	4	4	1:46	Punt
12	MIA	NYJ 48	4	48	0:41	Touchdown
13	NYJ	NYJ 25	5	8	0:48	Punt
14	MIA	MIA 28	4	41	0:43	Interception
15	NYJ	NYJ 18	4	22	0:22	End of half
16	MIA	MIA 24	5	7	1:40	Punt
17	NYJ	NYJ 24	4	-4	1:39	Punt
18	MIA	MIA 46	4	8	2:18	Punt
19	NYJ	NYJ 6	5	17	1:49	Punt
20	MIA	MIA 40	8	53	3:45	Turnover on downs
21	NYJ	NYJ 25	7	51	2:44	Turnover on downs
22	MIA	MIA 45	4	8	1:17	Punt
23	NYJ	NYJ 10	5	19	1:52	Punt
24	MIA	MIA 29	1	0	0:11	Interception
25	NYJ	NYJ 24	9	19	4:08	Punt
26	MIA	MIA 22	4	7	1:44	Punt
27	NYJ	NYJ 25	13	68	4:26	Turnover on downs
28	MIA	MIA 7	5	19	2:27	End of game

0 of 28 drives ended in points. Longest march: Jets gained 68 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a turnover on downs.

Full stat lines

Box score

New York Jets

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Joe Flacco	21/44	186	0	1	3	-18.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Frank Gore	11	46	4.2	-2.8
Ty Johnson	3	42	14.0	2.3
La'Mical Perine	7	27	3.9	-1.5
Joe Flacco	1	0	0.0	-2.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Breshad Perriman	4	8	62	21%	1.3
Jamison Crowder	7	13	48	33%	-0.3
Frank Gore	4	4	24	10%	-0.1
Braxton Berrios	1	3	18	8%	-0.7
Ryan Griffin	2	3	17	8%	0.8
La'Mical Perine	2	3	9	8%	-0.6
Jeff Smith	1	4	8	10%	-4.0
Ty Johnson	0	1	0	3%	-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Avery Williamson	11	0	0.0	0	0
Neville Hewitt	6	1	0.0	0	0
Brian Poole	3	3	0.0	1	2
Quinnen Williams	2	3	0.0	0	1
Pierre Desir	4	1	0.0	0	0
Steve McLendon	1	3	0.0	0	0
Tarell Basham	2	1	1.0	0	0
Harvey Langi	2	0	0.0	0	0
Marcus Maye	2	0	0.0	1	1
Kyle Phillips	1	1	0.0	0	0

Miami Dolphins

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Ryan Fitzpatrick	18/27	191	3	2	2	-5.2
Tua Tagovailoa	2/2	9	0	0	0	0.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Myles Gaskin	18	91	5.1	0.9
Matt Breida	6	15	2.5	-2.0
Ryan Fitzpatrick	1	4	4.0	1.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Adam Shaheen	3	3	51	1	10%	5.1
Jakeem Grant	4	4	48	0	14%	2.7
Myles Gaskin	4	4	35	0	14%	1.7
DeVante Parker	3	8	35	0	28%	-3.3
Preston Williams	2	3	18	1	10%	-0.1
Matt Breida	2	2	7	0	7%	-0.3
Durham Smythe	1	2	4	1	7%	-1.2
Patrick Laird	1	1	2	0	3%	-0.3
Mike Gesicki	0	2	0	0	7%	-5.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Eric Rowe	7	2	0.0	1
Nik Needham	4	3	0.0	0
Jerome Baker	4	2	0.0	0
Christian Wilkins	3	2	1.0	2
Emmanuel Ogbah	3	2	2.0	0
Bobby McCain	2	2	0.0	1
Zach Sieler	1	2	0.0	0
Brandon Jones	3	0	0.0	1
Elandon Roberts	2	1	0.0	0
Sam Eguavoen	1	1	0.0	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: MIA -9.5
Closing total: 46
NYJ moneyline: +340
MIA moneyline: -410

Dolphins closed -9.5 and covered, winning by 24.

Total closed 46; the game landed 24 — under by 22.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Hard Rock Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 85°F, wind 15 mph
Referee: Bill Vinovich
Rest: NYJ 7 days · MIA 7 days
Coaches: Adam Gase vs Brian Flores

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.

Wind at 15 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.