2020 Week 6 · Sun, Oct 18, 2020 · MetLife Stadium

Washington Commanders

New York GiantsWinner

NYG -2 no coverU 42.5 ✓Giants closed -2, won by 1 — but didn't cover.

New York Giants 20–19 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 3:41, WAS +41% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 3:41WAS — NYG WAS ball · 3rd & 9WAS 55%

(3:41) (Shotgun) 8-K.Allen sacked at WAS 45 for -10 yards (51-K.Fackrell). FUMBLES (51-K.Fackrell) [51-K.Fackrell], touched at WAS 47, RECOVERED by NYG-48-T.Crowder at WAS 43. 48-T.Crowder for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Offici

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 3:41WAS +41% win prob(3:41) (Shotgun) 8-K.Allen sacked at WAS 45 for -10 yards (51-K.Fackrell). FUMBLES (51-K.Fackrell) [51-K.Fackrell], touched at WAS 47, RECOVERED by NYG-48-T.Crowder at WAS 43. 48-T.Crowder for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Officially, a sack for 8 yards.
Q4 · 0:36WAS +22% win probTWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 8-K.Allen pass to 17-T.McLaurin is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS.
Q3 · 0:58WAS +19% win prob(:58) 8-D.Jones pass deep left intended for 86-D.Slayton INTERCEPTED by 29-K.Fuller at WAS -9. Touchback. The Replay Official reviewed the interception ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
Q4 · 0:43NYG +13% win prob(:43) (Shotgun) 8-K.Allen pass deep left to 89-C.Sims for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Commanders	Giants
Offensive plays	70	44
Total yards	337 (edge)	243
Yards per play	4.8	5.5 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.01	-0.00 (edge)
Success rate	44% (edge)	41%
Dropback rate	69%	48%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.01	0.10 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.04 (edge)	-0.10
Third downs	8/15	7/11 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5 (edge)	4
First downs gained on snaps	23 (edge)	13
Sacks taken	3	1 (edge)
Turnovers	2	1 (edge)

Commanders outgained Giants 337–243 but lost the turnover battle 2–1. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · WAS

Kyle AllenQB

31/42, 280 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

-0.8 expected points added · +9.7% completion over expected

Passing · NYG

Daniel JonesQB

12/19, 112 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-0.3 expected points added · -0.7% completion over expected

Rushing · NYG

Daniel JonesQB

7 att, 74 yds, 0 TD

2.1 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NYG

Devonta FreemanRB

18 att, 61 yds, 0 TD

-3.8 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · WAS

Terry McLaurinWR

7/12 for 74 yds, 0 TD

30% of team targets · -2.0 expected points added

Receiving · WAS

Dontrelle InmanWR

5/5 for 45 yds, 0 TD

13% of team targets · 6.4 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	WAS	WAS 32	13	44	6:06	Turnover on downs
2	NYG	NYG 37	9	48	5:31	Turnover on downs
3	WAS	WAS 28	3	0	0:52	Interception
4	NYG	WAS 27	4	27	0:55	Touchdown
5	WAS	WAS 13	12	70	5:46	Turnover on downs
6	NYG	NYG 25	9	67	4:35	Turnover on downs
7	WAS	WAS 30	15	60	6:02	Touchdown
8	NYG	NYG 25	2	0	0:13	End of half
9	NYG	NYG 25	8	22	3:27	Punt
10	WAS	WAS 19	4	6	1:28	Punt
11	NYG	NYG 20	14	64	9:14	Interception
12	WAS	WAS 20	14	55	6:55	Turnover on downs
13	NYG	NYG 16	8	15	1:59	Punt
14	WAS	WAS 25	7	22	3:28	Defensive touchdown
15	WAS	WAS 25	12	80	2:53	Touchdown
16	NYG	WAS 38	2	0	0:36	End of game

0 of 16 drives ended in points. Longest march: Commanders gained 80 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Washington Commanders

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Kyle Allen	31/42	280	2	1	3	-0.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
J.D. McKissic	8	41	5.1	-0.9
Antonio Gibson	9	30	3.3	-0.5
Kyle Allen	2	8	4.0	1.2
Peyton Barber	4	6	1.5	1.2
Isaiah Wright	1	1	1.0	-0.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Terry McLaurin	7	12	74	0	30%	-2.0
Dontrelle Inman	5	5	45	0	13%	6.4
J.D. McKissic	6	6	43	0	15%	1.2
Logan Thomas	3	4	42	1	10%	3.2
Antonio Gibson	4	5	25	0	13%	0.1
Isaiah Wright	4	5	25	0	13%	0.7
Cam Sims	1	1	22	1	3%	3.4
Peyton Barber	1	1	4	0	3%	-0.0
Antonio Gandy-Golden	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Cole Holcomb	5	1	0
Deshazor Everett	3	2	1
Landon Collins	3	2	0
Daron Payne	4	1	1
Jon Bostic	2	2	0
Kevin Pierre-Louis	1	2	1
Jimmy Moreland	2	1	0
Chase Young	2	1	0
Jonathan Allen	2	0	0
Terry McLaurin	1	0	0

New York Giants

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Daniel Jones	12/19	112	1	1	1	-0.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Daniel Jones	7	74	10.6	2.1
Devonta Freeman	18	61	3.4	-3.8
Darius Slayton	1	-3	-3.0	-1.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Darius Slayton	2	4	41	1	22%	-2.7
Evan Engram	2	3	30	0	17%	2.4
Kaden Smith	3	3	15	0	17%	1.8
Golden Tate	1	1	11	0	6%	1.9
Dion Lewis	1	1	10	0	6%	1.3
C.J. Board	1	3	8	0	17%	-0.4
Austin Mack	1	1	1	0	6%	-0.6
Devonta Freeman	1	2	-4	0	11%	-1.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Blake Martinez	8	6	0.0	0	0
Tae Crowder	6	4	0.0	0	0
Dalvin Tomlinson	1	7	0.0	0	0
Logan Ryan	8	0	1.0	0	1
Jabrill Peppers	4	2	0.0	0	0
Leonard Williams	1	3	1.0	0	0
B.J. Hill	1	3	0.0	0	0
Julian Love	2	2	0.0	0	0
James Bradberry	1	2	0.0	1	1
Kyler Fackrell	2	1	1.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: NYG -2
Closing total: 42.5
WAS moneyline: +116
NYG moneyline: -128

Giants closed -2, won by 1 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 42.5; the game landed 39 — under by 3.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: MetLife Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: 62°F, wind 0 mph
Referee: Brad Allen
Rest: WAS 7 days · NYG 7 days
Coaches: Ron Rivera vs Joe Judge

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.