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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 1:10 AM ET · 16 to play
Buffalo Bills 18, Jets 10 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q1 6:15, 4th and 3, on Tyler Bass — 12.3 win-probability points to the Jets on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 6:15 · 4th and 3
Tyler Bass
Jets
(6:15) 2-T.Bass 45 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.
Bills closed -9.5, won by 8 — but didn't cover.
Buffalo Bills 18–10. Biggest swing: Q1 6:15, Jets +12.3% win probability on one snap.
12.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Dane JacksonBillsQ2 0:49(:49) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep left intended for 16-J.Smith INTERCEPTED by 30-D.Jackson at BUF 36. 30-D.Jackson to BUF 42 for 6 yards (19-B.Perriman). PENALTY on BUF-61-J.Zimmer, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at BUF 42.
8.7pts
Tyler BassJetsQ4 12:23(12:23) 2-T.Bass 37 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.
10.5pts
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Bills won this one — +0.21 expected points per dropback, against Jets at -0.43 expected points per dropback.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Bills won this one — +0.13 expected points per snap, against Jets at -0.26 expected points per snap.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Bills won this one — 57% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Jets at 43% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Jets owned this one and still lost it — 1 touchdown on 3 trips, against Bills at 0 touchdowns on 6 trips.
Jetsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 23.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 40 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jets.
MarketModelmodel higher on Jetshigher on Bills160 of 171 plays carry both curves
(6:15) 2-T.Bass 45 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.
Swing +12.3 for JetsExpected points +3.93 for JetsThe model had Jets 36 points higher than the market did.play 22
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 6:15BUF +12% win prob(6:15) 2-T.Bass 45 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.
4th · 12:23BUF +10% win prob(12:23) 2-T.Bass 37 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.
2nd · 0:49BUF +9% win prob(:49) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep left intended for 16-J.Smith INTERCEPTED by 30-D.Jackson at BUF 36. 30-D.Jackson to BUF 42 for 6 yards (19-B.Perriman). PENALTY on BUF-61-J.Zimmer, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at BUF 42.
1st · 1:19NYJ +8% win prob(1:19) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep left to 10-B.Berrios ran ob at BUF 27 for 22 yards.
2nd · 7:37NYJ +7% win prob(7:37) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short right to 19-B.Perriman. PENALTY on BUF-23-M.Hyde, Defensive Pass Interference, 13 yards, enforced at BUF 18 - No Play.
2nd · 14:16BUF +7% win prob(14:16) (Shotgun) 22-L.Perine up the middle to BUF 19 for -1 yards (90-Q.Jefferson; 55-J.Hughes).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Tyler Bass's 37-yard field goal with 1:42 left in the 3rd put Buffalo Bills ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
Lead
1st8:50Sergio Castillo·29-yd field goal29-yard field goalholder B.Mann · snap T.Hennessy+30–3
2nd2:47Tyler Bass·53-yd field goal53-yard field goalholder C.Bojorquez · snap R.Ferguson+33–10
2nd0:02Tyler Bass·48-yd field goal48-yard field goalholder C.Bojorquez · snap R.Ferguson+36–10
3rd10:39Tyler Bass·46-yd field goal46-yard field goalholder C.Bojorquez · snap R.Ferguson+39–10
3rd1:42Tyler Bass·37-yd field goal37-yard field goalholder C.Bojorquez · snap R.FergusonLead never changed again+312–10
4th6:04Tyler Bass·29-yd field goal29-yard field goalholder C.Bojorquez · snap R.Ferguson+315–10
4th2:00Tyler Bass·40-yd field goal40-yard field goalholder C.Bojorquez · snap R.Ferguson+318–10
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Billscategory by categoryJets
Bills8–1Jets
424Total yards191
6.1Yards per play3.7
57%Success rate43%
27%Third-down rate25%
0Red-zone touchdowns1
7Explosive plays4
25First downs14
2Sacks taken6
1Turnovers2
The read
Bills ahead 8–1 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Jets, in red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.43 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.13Bills: +0.13 expected points added per play
−0.26Jets: −0.26 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.21Bills: +0.21 expected points added per play
−0.43Jets: −0.43 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.03Bills: −0.03 expected points added per play
−0.04Jets: −0.04 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bills ran 70 snaps at a 69% dropback rate against Jets’s 51 at 57%. Red-zone trips: Bills 6, Jets 3.
NoteBills won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.13 expected points added per play vs -0.26.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
BUF's sack or hit rate, 27.6%, was the highest of the 28 team-games charted in week 7 — 1.8 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of 19.2% in week 2.
2.2 times their own weekly swing above their number.
A 2.6-swing turn from week 6.
29 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.0 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -20 pts to 33 pts
off script — got home · +13.0 vs their 14.6%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (+2.16× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
Jets6.3%
inside their normal wobble · −6.9 vs their 13.1%, and they swing ±8.9 week to week (−0.78× that swing) · 48 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteBUF's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 27.6%, 13.0 points above their season mean of 14.6% and 2.2 times their own 6.0-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Jets attack right, the Bills attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bills←Jets→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
Tyler Bass−17% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(12:23) 2-T.Bass 37 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.
Q4 12:23 · Bills · 4th & 9 at NYJ 19 · gained nothing · -3.91 EP · −16.9% win probability
158 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 171 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 171 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was NYJ moving 80 yards from the NYJ 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NYJ attacks right, BUF attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
171 of 171 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
171
EPA per play
-0.05
Success rate
47%
Yards
613
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR65+0.1168%
Jets1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR41-0.2161%
Jets1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9-0.3133%
Bills1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR4——
Jets0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
Bills2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
171 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
171 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
Bills0Jets3
Field goal13 plays, from the Jets 22 to the Bills 11
No good8 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Jets 27
The period ended15 plays, from the Jets 35 to the Bills 25
2nd quarter49 plays
Turnover on downs2 plays, from the Bills 28 to the Bills 18
Offense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFour
Fumble lost10 plays, from the Bills 19 to the Jets 7
Bills0Jets9
Bills0Jets10
Touchdown10 plays, from the Jets 20 to the Bills 5
Bills3Jets10
Field goal11 plays, from the Bills 23 to the Jets 35
Intercepted7 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Jets 47
Bills6Jets10
Field goal8 plays, from the Bills 27 to the Jets 30
3rd quarter38 plays
Bills9Jets10
Field goal11 plays, from the Jets 47 to the Jets 20
Punt6 plays, from the Jets 26 to the Jets 39
Bills12Jets10
Field goal15 plays, from the Bills 8 to the Jets 19
Punt5 plays
4th quarter47 plays
No good7 plays, from the Bills 31 to the Jets 19
Punt5 plays, from the Jets 27 to the Jets 29
Bills15Jets10
Field goal8 plays, from the Bills 43 to the Jets 6
Punt5 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Jets 28
Bills18Jets10
Field goal11 plays, from the Bills 41 to the Jets 22
Intercepted8 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Jets 32
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
