2020 Week 7 · Sun, Oct 25, 2020 · MetLife Stadium

Buffalo BillsWinner

New York Jets

BUF -9.5 no coverU 47 ✓Bills closed -9.5, won by 8 — but didn't cover.

Buffalo Bills 18–10. Biggest swing: Q1 6:15, BUF +12% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 6:15BUF — NYJ BUF ball · 4th & 3BUF 83%

(6:15) 2-T.Bass 45 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 6:15BUF +12% win prob(6:15) 2-T.Bass 45 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.
Q4 · 12:23BUF +10% win prob(12:23) 2-T.Bass 37 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.
Q2 · 0:49BUF +9% win prob(:49) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep left intended for 16-J.Smith INTERCEPTED by 30-D.Jackson at BUF 36. 30-D.Jackson to BUF 42 for 6 yards (19-B.Perriman). PENALTY on BUF-61-J.Zimmer, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at BUF 42.
Q1 · 1:19NYJ +8% win prob(1:19) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep left to 10-B.Berrios ran ob at BUF 27 for 22 yards.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Bills	Jets
Offensive plays	70	51
Total yards	424 (edge)	191
Yards per play	6.1 (edge)	3.7
Expected points added / play	0.13 (edge)	-0.26
Success rate	57% (edge)	43%
Dropback rate	69%	57%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.21 (edge)	-0.43
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.03 (edge)	-0.04
Third downs	3/11 (edge)	2/8
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	7 (edge)	4
First downs gained on snaps	25 (edge)	14
Sacks taken	2 (edge)	6
Turnovers	1 (edge)	2

Bills won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.13 expected points added per play vs -0.26.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · BUF

Josh AllenQB

30/43, 307 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

6.3 expected points added · +2.5% completion over expected

Passing · NYJ

Sam DarnoldQB

12/23, 120 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT

-12.4 expected points added · -10.2% completion over expected

Rushing · BUF

Josh AllenQB

11 att, 61 yds, 0 TD

1.1 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NYJ

Frank GoreRB

11 att, 60 yds, 0 TD

1.0 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · BUF

Cole BeasleyWR

11/12 for 112 yds, 0 TD

29% of team targets · 7.7 expected points added

Receiving · BUF

Tyler KroftTE

4/4 for 64 yds, 0 TD

10% of team targets · 4.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	NYJ	NYJ 22	12	62	6:14	Turnover on downs
2	BUF	BUF 25	8	48	2:35	Turnover on downs
3	NYJ	NYJ 35	12	51	7:00	Turnover on downs
4	BUF	BUF 19	9	56	3:11	Fumble
5	NYJ	NYJ 20	8	52	3:38	Touchdown
6	BUF	BUF 23	11	42	4:40	Turnover on downs
7	NYJ	NYJ 25	7	22	2:02	Interception
8	BUF	BUF 27	6	43	0:40	Turnover on downs
9	BUF	NYJ 47	10	24	4:25	Turnover on downs
10	NYJ	NYJ 26	6	12	1:35	Punt
11	BUF	BUF 8	14	78	7:23	Turnover on downs
12	NYJ	NYJ 27	5	0	1:37	Punt
13	BUF	BUF 31	7	50	2:41	Turnover on downs
14	NYJ	NYJ 27	4	-1	1:50	Punt
15	BUF	BUF 43	8	46	4:28	Turnover on downs
16	NYJ	NYJ 25	5	3	0:43	Punt
17	BUF	BUF 41	8	37	3:22	Turnover on downs
18	NYJ	NYJ 25	4	-10	0:48	Interception
19	BUF	NYJ 9	2	0	1:08	End of game

0 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bills gained 78 scrimmage yards over 14 plays for a turnover on downs.

Full stat lines

Box score

Buffalo Bills

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Josh Allen	30/43	307	0	0	2	6.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Josh Allen	11	61	5.5	1.1
Zack Moss	7	47	6.7	0.7
Devin Singletary	8	29	3.6	-1.1
Isaiah McKenzie	1	-11	-11.0	-1.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Cole Beasley	11	12	112	29%	7.7
Tyler Kroft	4	4	64	10%	4.0
Stefon Diggs	6	11	48	27%	0.8
Zack Moss	3	3	25	7%	1.2
Devin Singletary	2	5	18	12%	-1.2
Reggie Gilliam	1	1	15	2%	1.0
Isaiah McKenzie	2	2	14	5%	1.0
Gabe Davis	1	3	11	7%	-1.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Jordan Poyer	4	2	1.0	0	1
Tremaine Edmunds	4	1	0.0	0	0
Jerry Hughes	4	1	2.0	1	1
A.J. Klein	3	2	0.5	0	0
Tre'Davious White	2	2	0.5	0	0
Trent Murphy	2	1	1.0	0	0
Dane Jackson	3	0	0.0	1	2
Dean Marlowe	1	1	0.5	0	0
Quinton Jefferson	1	1	0.0	0	1
Matt Milano	0	2	0.5	0	0

New York Jets

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Sam Darnold	12/23	120	0	2	6	-12.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Frank Gore	11	60	5.5	0	1.0
La'Mical Perine	11	40	3.6	1	-1.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Denzel Mims	4	7	42	33%	-0.0
Braxton Berrios	4	7	35	33%	-3.9
Breshad Perriman	2	2	27	10%	1.4
La'Mical Perine	2	3	16	14%	0.9
Trevon Wesco	0	1	0	5%	-0.5
Jeff Smith	0	1	0	5%	-1.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Avery Williamson	4	9	0.0	0
Neville Hewitt	8	3	0.0	0
Marcus Maye	5	5	0.0	0
Brian Poole	4	1	0.0	0
Blessuan Austin	3	2	0.0	2
Folorunso Fatukasi	2	2	0.0	0
Quinnen Williams	3	1	1.0	0
Bryce Huff	3	1	0.0	0
Henry Anderson	1	2	0.0	0
Pierre Desir	3	0	0.0	2

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: BUF -9.5
Closing total: 47
BUF moneyline: -391
NYJ moneyline: +327

Bills closed -9.5, won by 8 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 47; the game landed 28 — under by 19.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: MetLife Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: 52°F, wind 8 mph
Referee: Carl Cheffers
Rest: BUF 6 days · NYJ 7 days
Coaches: Sean McDermott vs Adam Gase

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.