2020 Week 7 · Sun, Oct 25, 2020 · Mercedes-Benz Superdome

Carolina Panthers

New Orleans SaintsWinner

NO -7 no coverO 49.5 ✓DomeSaints closed -7, won by 3 — but didn't cover.

New Orleans Saints 27–24 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q3 0:12, NO +13% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q3 · 0:12CAR — NO CAR ball · 1st & 5NO 78%

(:12) 10-C.Samuel left guard for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q3 · 0:12NO +13% win prob(:12) 10-C.Samuel left guard for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 7:05CAR +13% win prob(7:05) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees sacked at CAR 35 for -10 yards (53-B.Burns). FUMBLES (53-B.Burns) [53-B.Burns], RECOVERED by CAR-98-M.Haynes at CAR 35.
Q4 · 2:25CAR +12% win prob(2:25) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater sacked at NO 47 for -8 yards (92-M.Davenport).
Q4 · 2:00CAR +11% win prob(2:00) 4-J.Slye 65 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-3-J.Charlton.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Panthers	Saints
Offensive plays	43	65
Total yards	283	416 (edge)
Yards per play	6.6 (edge)	6.4
Expected points added / play	0.30 (edge)	0.25
Success rate	58% (edge)	52%
Dropback rate	72%	57%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.47 (edge)	0.39
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.15	0.06 (edge)
Third downs	6/9	12/14 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	3	6 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	15	25 (edge)
Sacks taken	1	1
Turnovers	0 (edge)	1

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · NO

Drew BreesQB

29/36, 287 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

15.0 expected points added · +10.7% completion over expected

Passing · CAR

Teddy BridgewaterQB

23/28, 254 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

14.1 expected points added · +10.9% completion over expected

Rushing · NO

Alvin KamaraRB

14 att, 83 yds, 0 TD

0.5 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NO

Latavius MurrayRB

11 att, 47 yds, 0 TD

-1.6 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CAR

D.J. MooreWR

4/5 for 93 yds, 2 TD

19% of team targets · 7.0 expected points added

Receiving · NO

Marquez CallawayWR

8/10 for 75 yds, 0 TD

29% of team targets · 4.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	NO	NO 25	16	75	8:26	Touchdown
2	CAR	CAR 25	10	45	4:40	Turnover on downs
3	NO	NO 22	11	78	4:41	Touchdown
4	CAR	CAR 25	4	70	1:17	Touchdown
5	NO	NO 16	9	44	3:58	Fumble
6	CAR	CAR 35	10	65	5:21	Touchdown
7	NO	NO 25	10	75	1:35	Touchdown
8	CAR	—	1	0	0:02	End of half
9	CAR	CAR 19	8	15	3:43	Punt
10	NO	NO 19	13	78	6:53	Turnover on downs
11	CAR	CAR 25	10	60	4:16	Touchdown
12	NO	NO 25	14	55	7:13	Turnover on downs
13	CAR	CAR 25	12	28	6:00	Turnover on downs
14	NO	CAR 45	4	11	1:55	End of game

0 of 14 drives ended in points. Longest march: Saints gained 78 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Carolina Panthers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Teddy Bridgewater	23/28	254	2	0	1	14.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Mike Davis	7	12	1.7	0	-3.0
Teddy Bridgewater	2	10	5.0	0	0.5
Trenton Cannon	1	7	7.0	0	0.5
Curtis Samuel	1	5	5.0	1	1.2
Myles Hartsfield	2	2	1.0	0	-1.2
Alex Armah	1	1	1.0	0	0.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
D.J. Moore	4	5	93	2	19%	7.0
Robbie Chosen	6	8	74	0	30%	4.3
Curtis Samuel	6	6	48	0	22%	5.0
Mike Davis	5	5	24	0	19%	0.2
Ian Thomas	1	1	11	0	4%	1.5
Brandon Zylstra	1	1	4	0	4%	0.4
Alex Armah	0	1	0	0	4%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Shaq Thompson	7	6	0.0	0
Jeremy Chinn	4	4	0.0	1
Brian Burns	1	5	1.0	1
Adarius Taylor	6	0	0.0	0
Tre Boston	4	2	0.0	0
Tahir Whitehead	5	0	0.0	0
Troy Pride	3	1	0.0	0
Eli Apple	3	1	0.0	0
Corn Elder	2	1	0.0	0
Sam Franklin	1	2	0.0	0

New Orleans Saints

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Drew Brees	29/36	287	2	0	1	15.0
Taysom Hill	1/1	0	0	0	0	-0.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Alvin Kamara	14	83	5.9	0	0.5
Latavius Murray	11	47	4.3	0	-1.6
Taysom Hill	1	6	6.0	0	1.2
Drew Brees	3	2	0.7	1	-0.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Marquez Callaway	8	10	75	0	29%	4.5
Alvin Kamara	8	8	65	0	23%	4.1
Tre'Quan Smith	4	4	54	0	11%	3.5
Deonte Harty	4	5	46	1	14%	7.5
Jared Cook	3	4	32	1	11%	1.9
Latavius Murray	1	1	9	0	3%	0.7
Austin Carr	1	1	6	0	3%	0.6
Adam Trautman	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.8
Josh Hill	1	1	0	0	3%	-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Marshon Lattimore	4	2	0.0	0
Marcus Williams	3	3	0.0	0
Chauncey Gardner-Johnson	5	0	0.0	1
Alex Anzalone	3	1	0.0	0
David Onyemata	1	2	0.0	0
Janoris Jenkins	3	0	0.0	0
Marcus Davenport	1	1	1.0	0
Malcolm Jenkins	1	1	0.0	0
Cameron Jordan	1	1	0.0	0
Demario Davis	2	0	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: NO -7
Closing total: 49.5
CAR moneyline: +271
NO moneyline: -317

Saints closed -7, won by 3 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 49.5; the game landed 51 — over by 1.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Mercedes-Benz Superdome
Roof / surface: dome · astroturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Craig Wrolstad
Rest: CAR 7 days · NO 13 days
Coaches: Matt Rhule vs Sean Payton

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.