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Carolina Panthers 24 at New Orleans Saints 27. Final.
Saints -7 no coverO 49.5 ✓
The verdict · 2020 Week 7
New Orleans Saints 27, Panthers 24 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q3 0:12, 1st and 5, on Curtis Samuel — 13.4 win-probability points to the Panthers on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 0:12 · 1st and 5
Curtis Samuel
Panthers
(:12) 10-C.Samuel left guard for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Dome
Saints closed -7, won by 3 — but didn't cover.
New Orleans Saints 27–24 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q3 0:12, Panthers +13.4% win probability on one snap.
13.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Drew BreesPanthersQ2 7:05(7:05) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees sacked at CAR 35 for -10 yards (53-B.Burns). FUMBLES (53-B.Burns) [53-B.Burns], RECOVERED by CAR-98-M.Haynes at CAR 35.
12.7pts
Teddy BridgewaterSaintsQ4 2:25(2:25) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater sacked at NO 47 for -8 yards (92-M.Davenport).
12.1pts
What separated them
Third down
Saints won this one — 12 of 14 on third down, against Panthers at 6 of 9 on third down.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Saints won this one — 6 chunk plays, against Panthers at 3 chunk plays.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Saints won this one — +0.06 expected points per carry, against Panthers at -0.15 expected points per carry.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Panthers owned this one and still lost it — no giveaways, against Saints at 1 giveaway.
Panthersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 10.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 19 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Panthers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Saintshigher on Panthers140 of 151 plays carry both curves
(:12) 10-C.Samuel left guard for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −13.4 for SaintsExpected points −1.18 for SaintsThe model had Panthers 12 points higher than the market did.play 114
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 0:12NO +13% win prob(:12) 10-C.Samuel left guard for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 7:05CAR +13% win prob(7:05) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees sacked at CAR 35 for -10 yards (53-B.Burns). FUMBLES (53-B.Burns) [53-B.Burns], RECOVERED by CAR-98-M.Haynes at CAR 35.
4th · 2:25CAR +12% win prob(2:25) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater sacked at NO 47 for -8 yards (92-M.Davenport).
4th · 2:00CAR +11% win prob(2:00) 4-J.Slye 65 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-3-J.Charlton.
2nd · 11:06NO +11% win prob(11:06) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass deep middle to 12-D.Moore for 74 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 41, YAC 33
2nd · 0:05NO +10% win prob(:05) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short right to 11-D.Harris for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 4, YAC 0
4th · 12:53
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Wil Lutz's 43-yard field goal with 7:59 left in the 4th put New Orleans Saints ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
4th7:59Wil Lutz·43-yd field goal43-yard field goalholder T.Morstead · snap Z.WoodLead never changed again+324–27
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Pantherscategory by categorySaints
Panthers3–5Saints
283Total yards416
6.6Yards per play6.4
58%Success rate52%
67%Third-down rate86%
2Red-zone touchdowns3
3Explosive plays6
15First downs25
1Sacks taken1
0Turnovers1
The read
Saints ahead 5–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Panthers, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.47 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.30Panthers: +0.30 expected points added per play
+0.25Saints: +0.25 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.47Panthers: +0.47 expected points added per play
+0.39Saints: +0.39 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.15Panthers: −0.15 expected points added per play
+0.06Saints: +0.06 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Panthers ran 43 snaps at a 72% dropback rate against Saints’s 65 at 57%. Red-zone trips: Panthers 3, Saints 4.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 6 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 7Against their seasonOver Expected
CAR's pass rate over expected, +12.0 pts, is past their previous high of +9.0 pts in week 4 — the highest of their 7 charted games through week 7.
A 2.6-swing turn from week 6.
43 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.4 points.
CAR's sack or hit rate turned over: 23.1% in week 6 against 8.1% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
37 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.0 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 16 pts
inside their normal wobble · −5.3 vs their 13.4%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (−0.89× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Saints6.5%
leaned — stayed blocked · −10.6 vs their 17.0%, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (−1.61× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteCAR's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 12.0 pts, 10.5 points above their season mean of 1.5 pts and 2.0 times their own 5.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Saints attack right, the Panthers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Panthers←Saints→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
T.Bridgewater pass+18% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(11:06) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass deep middle to 12-D.Moore for 74 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 41, YAC 33
Q2 11:06 · Panthers · 2nd & 14 at CAR 26 · gained 74 · +6.40 EP · +17.8% win probability
139 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 151 plays across 14 drives, personnel groupings on 151 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 14 drives ended in points. The longest march was NO moving 78 yards from the NO 22 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NO attacks right, CAR attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
151 of 151 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
151
EPA per play
+0.18
Success rate
48%
Yards
698
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR27+0.2578%
Panthers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR20+0.3890%
Saints2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR9+0.6778%
Panthers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9+0.0333%
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7-0.0157%
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR5+0.2020%
Panthers0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR5+1.1760%
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Panthers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Saints2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Saints1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Saints1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR3——
Panthers0 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR3——
Saints2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Saints2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Panthers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Panthers1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
151 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
151 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter33 plays
Panthers0Saints6
Panthers0Saints7
Touchdown16 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Panthers 4
Panthers3Saints7
Field goal11 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Saints 25
The period ended5 plays, from the Saints 22 to the Saints 45
2nd quarter48 plays
Panthers3Saints13
Panthers3Saints14
Touchdown8 plays, from the Panthers 30 to the Panthers 1
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.3 seconds
Panthers9Saints14
Panthers10Saints14
Touchdown5 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Panthers 30
Offense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFour
Fumble lost10 plays, from the Saints 16 to the Panthers 25
Panthers16Saints14
Panthers17Saints14
Touchdown11 plays, from the Panthers 35 to the Saints 7
Panthers17Saints20
Panthers17Saints21
Touchdown12 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Panthers 4
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter37 plays
Punt9 plays, from the Panthers 19 to the Panthers 34
Panthers17Saints24
Field goal15 plays, from the Saints 19 to the Panthers 11
Panthers23Saints24
Panthers24Saints24
Touchdown10 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Saints 5
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter33 plays
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldTwo quarterbacks, one back and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.0 seconds
Panthers24Saints27
Field goal14 plays, from the Saints 30 to the Panthers 25
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFive
No good12 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Saints 38
The period ended7 plays, from the Panthers 45 to the Panthers 34
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
