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Los Angeles Rams 24, Bears 10 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q3 5:14, 2nd and 4, on Taylor Rapp — 5.3 win-probability points to the Rams on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 5:14 · 2nd and 4
Taylor Rapp
Rams
(5:14) (Shotgun) 9-N.Foles pass deep left intended for 11-D.Mooney INTERCEPTED by 24-T.Rapp (22-T.Hill) at LA -8. Touchback.
Dome
Rams closed -6.5 and covered, winning by 14.
Los Angeles Rams 24–10. Biggest swing: Q3 5:14, Rams +5.3% win probability on one snap.
5.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
David MontgomeryRamsQ1 12:37(12:37) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 32-D.Montgomery up the middle to LA 48 for 2 yards (97-M.Fox). PENALTY on CHI-74-G.Ifedi, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at 50 - No Play.
4.3pts
Nick FolesRamsQ2 2:55(2:55) (Shotgun) 9-N.Foles sacked at LA 47 for -4 yards (sack split by 91-G.Gaines and 99-A.Donald).
4.9pts
What separated them
Red zone
Rams won this one — 3 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Bears at 0 touchdowns on 2 trips.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Rams won this one — 9 chunk plays, against Bears at 3 chunk plays.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Rams won this one — 47% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Bears at 31% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Rams won this one — +0.10 expected points per dropback, against Bears at -0.41 expected points per dropback.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 6.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 19 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bears.
MarketModelmodel higher on Ramshigher on Bears164 of 177 plays carry both curves
(5:14) (Shotgun) 9-N.Foles pass deep left intended for 11-D.Mooney INTERCEPTED by 24-T.Rapp (22-T.Hill) at LA -8. Touchback.
Swing +5.3 for RamsExpected points +6.42 for RamsThe model had Bears 6 points higher than the market did.play 112
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 5:14CHI +5% win prob(5:14) (Shotgun) 9-N.Foles pass deep left intended for 11-D.Mooney INTERCEPTED by 24-T.Rapp (22-T.Hill) at LA -8. Touchback.
2nd · 2:55CHI +5% win prob(2:55) (Shotgun) 9-N.Foles sacked at LA 47 for -4 yards (sack split by 91-G.Gaines and 99-A.Donald).
1st · 12:37CHI +4% win prob(12:37) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 32-D.Montgomery up the middle to LA 48 for 2 yards (97-M.Fox). PENALTY on CHI-74-G.Ifedi, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at 50 - No Play.
2nd · 1:15LA +4% win prob(1:15) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 44 yards to LA 10, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 10-C.Kupp.
1st · 8:03CHI +4% win prob(8:03) 6-J.Hekker punts 35 yards to CHI 7, Center-44-J.McQuaide, out of bounds.
2nd · 2:00CHI +4% win prob(2:00) (Shotgun) 9-N.Foles sacked at CHI 46 for -11 yards (54-L.Floyd).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Josh Reynolds's 4-yard touchdown catch with 4:01 left in the 1st put Los Angeles Rams ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Lead
1st4:01Josh Reynolds·4-yd TD catch4-yard touchdown catchfrom Jared Gofffrom Jared GoffLead never changed again+70–7
2nd14:18Cairo Santos·42-yd field goal42-yard field goalholder P.O'Donnell · snap P.Scales+33–7
2nd4:59Sam Sloman·22-yd field goal22-yard field goalholder J.Hekker · snap J.McQuaide+33–10
Rams ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.41 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.39Bears: −0.39 expected points added per play
−0.10Rams: −0.10 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.41Bears: −0.41 expected points added per play
+0.10Rams: +0.10 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.33Bears: −0.33 expected points added per play
−0.33Rams: −0.33 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bears ran 61 snaps at a 72% dropback rate against Rams’s 66 at 53%. Red-zone trips: Bears 2, Rams 4.
NoteRams won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.10 expected points added per play vs -0.39.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 17 pts
right on their number · −0.0 vs their 14.3%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (−0.01× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Rams15.9%
right on their number · −0.1 vs their 16.0%, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (−0.02× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNothing either side did tonight left its own normal range. The widest departure was CHI's early-down pass rate, 67.4% against a season mean of 59.6% — and CHI swings 12.0 points week to week, so that is a Sunday, not a plan.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Rams attack right, the Bears attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bears←Rams→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
N.Foles pass−9% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(5:14) (Shotgun) 9-N.Foles pass deep left intended for 11-D.Mooney INTERCEPTED by 24-T.Rapp (22-T.Hill) at LA -8. Touchback.
Q3 5:14 · Bears · 2nd & 4 at LA 9 · gained nothing · -6.42 EP · −9.3% win probability
162 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 177 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 177 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
5 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was LA moving 80 yards from the LA 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LA attacks right, CHI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
177 of 177 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
177
EPA per play
-0.21
Success rate
36%
Yards
650
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Rams1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR41+0.0866%
Bears1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR34-0.6188%
Rams1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR25-0.4028%
Bears1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10+0.3850%
Bears0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR7-0.9271%
Bears1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR6-0.3417%
Bears0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR4——
snapsepapass rate
177 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
177 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter41 plays
Punt9 plays, from the Bears 30 to midfield
Punt11 plays, from the Rams 10 to the Bears 39
Punt4 plays, from the Bears 7 to the Bears 12
Bears0Rams6
Bears0Rams7
Touchdown8 plays, from the Rams 48 to the Bears 4
The period ended8 plays, from the Bears 18 to the Rams 30
2nd quarter42 plays
Bears3Rams7
Field goal2 plays, from the Rams 27 to the Rams 24
Punt11 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Bears 40
Punt5 plays, from the Bears 10 to the Bears 19
Bears3Rams10
Field goal6 plays, from the Rams 38 to the Bears 4
Punt10 plays, from the Bears 19 to the Rams 43
The period ended8 plays, from the Rams 10 to the Rams 29
3rd quarter46 plays
Punt9 plays, from the Rams 18 to the Bears 49
Punt4 plays, from the Bears 1 to the Bears 5
Bears3Rams16
Bears3Rams17
Touchdown8 plays, from the Rams 45 to the Bears 1
Intercepted8 plays, from the Bears 20 to the Rams 9
Bears3Rams23
Bears3Rams24
Touchdown10 plays, from the Rams 20 to the Bears 12
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Bears 34
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter48 plays
No good4 plays, from the Bears 37 to the Bears 27
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Bears 38 to the Rams 4
Bears9Rams24
Touchdown3 plays, from the Rams 12 to the Rams 18
Bears10Rams24
Punt5 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Rams 31
Intercepted6 plays, from the Bears 6 to the Bears 24
Punt7 plays, from the Bears 39 to the Bears 38
Turnover on downs11 plays, from the Bears 5 to the Bears 42
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
