2020 Week 7 · Sun, Oct 25, 2020 · Paul Brown Stadium

Cleveland BrownsWinner

Cincinnati Bengals

CLE -4.5 no coverO 50 ✓Browns closed -4.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.

Cleveland Browns 37–34 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:16, CIN +48% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 0:16CLE — CIN CLE ball · 2nd & 10CIN 53%

(:16) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep right to 11-D.Peoples-Jones for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 0:16CIN +48% win prob(:16) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep right to 11-D.Peoples-Jones for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 1:09CIN +24% win prob(1:09) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 25-G.Bernard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 8:51CIN +17% win prob(8:51) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle to 85-T.Higgins for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 3:08CLE +16% win prob(3:08) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow sacked at CIN 46 for -12 yards (95-M.Garrett). FUMBLES (95-M.Garrett) [95-M.Garrett], touched at CIN 36, RECOVERED by CLE-33-R.Harrison Jr. at CIN 33. 33-R.Harrison Jr. ran ob at CIN 33 for no gain.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Browns	Bengals
Offensive plays	49	73
Total yards	399	468 (edge)
Yards per play	8.1 (edge)	6.4
Expected points added / play	0.44 (edge)	0.26
Success rate	57%	58% (edge)
Dropback rate	57%	73%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.83 (edge)	0.37
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.07	-0.04 (edge)
Third downs	5/7 (edge)	6/9
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	11 (edge)	7
First downs gained on snaps	21	30 (edge)
Sacks taken	0 (edge)	4
Turnovers	1 (edge)	2

Bengals outgained Browns 468–399 but lost the turnover battle 2–1. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CIN

Joe BurrowQB

35/47, 406 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT

17.2 expected points added · +11.8% completion over expected

Passing · CLE

Baker MayfieldQB

22/28, 297 yds, 5 TD, 1 INT

21.5 expected points added · +21.1% completion over expected

Rushing · CLE

Kareem HuntRB

18 att, 76 yds, 0 TD

-1.0 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CIN

Giovani BernardRB

13 att, 37 yds, 0 TD

-3.5 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CLE

Rashard HigginsWR

6/6 for 110 yds, 0 TD

21% of team targets · 7.4 expected points added

Receiving · CIN

Tyler BoydWR

11/13 for 101 yds, 1 TD

28% of team targets · 4.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CIN	CIN 28	11	70	5:44	Interception
2	CLE	CLE 4	2	6	0:55	Interception
3	CIN	CLE 24	4	14	1:34	Touchdown
4	CLE	CLE 25	6	16	1:51	Punt
5	CIN	CIN 25	6	-4	1:56	Fumble
6	CLE	CIN 33	5	8	1:39	Turnover on downs
7	CIN	CIN 19	12	62	5:12	Turnover on downs
8	CLE	CLE 25	13	70	7:30	Touchdown
9	CIN	CIN 25	12	85	3:24	Touchdown
10	CLE	CLE 25	2	0	0:15	End of half
11	CLE	CLE 25	11	75	5:28	Touchdown
12	CIN	CIN 25	13	76	6:41	Turnover on downs
13	CLE	CLE 21	10	74	4:38	Touchdown
14	CIN	CIN 20	14	80	4:28	Touchdown
15	CLE	CLE 25	9	75	3:52	Touchdown
16	CIN	CIN 25	12	85	3:47	Touchdown
17	CLE	CLE 25	7	75	0:55	Touchdown
18	CIN	CIN 42	2	0	0:11	End of game

0 of 18 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bengals gained 85 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Cleveland Browns

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Baker Mayfield	22/28	297	5	1	0	21.5
Jarvis Landry	1/1	19	0	0	0	1.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Kareem Hunt	18	76	4.2	-1.0
Jarvis Landry	2	4	2.0	-0.3
D'Ernest Johnson	1	3	3.0	-0.2
Baker Mayfield	1	-1	-1.0	0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Rashard Higgins	6	6	110	0	21%	7.4
Donovan Peoples-Jones	3	3	56	1	11%	6.6
Harrison Bryant	4	5	56	2	18%	7.4
Jarvis Landry	5	6	48	0	21%	2.0
Kareem Hunt	3	4	26	1	14%	2.5
David Njoku	2	3	20	1	11%	1.9
Odell Beckham	0	1	0	0	4%	-4.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Ronnie Harrison	6	3	1.0	0	1
Sheldon Richardson	3	4	0.5	0	0
B.J. Goodson	5	2	0.0	1	1
Andrew Sendejo	5	1	0.0	0	0
Denzel Ward	5	1	0.0	0	3
Malcolm Smith	3	1	0.0	0	0
Larry Ogunjobi	2	2	0.0	0	0
Mack Wilson	3	1	0.0	0	1
Terrance Mitchell	3	0	0.0	0	2
Kevin Johnson	0	3	0.5	0	0

Cincinnati Bengals

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Joe Burrow	35/47	406	3	1	4	17.2
Tyler Boyd	1/1	16	0	0	0	1.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Giovani Bernard	13	37	2.8	0	-3.5
Joe Burrow	6	34	5.7	1	3.6
Tee Higgins	1	7	7.0	0	0.3
Samaje Perine	1	3	3.0	0	-0.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Tyler Boyd	11	13	101	1	28%	4.1
A.J. Green	7	13	82	0	28%	3.1
Tee Higgins	5	5	71	1	11%	6.3
Giovani Bernard	5	5	59	1	11%	6.7
Mike Thomas	2	3	54	0	6%	4.8
Drew Sample	5	6	52	0	13%	4.3
Samaje Perine	1	1	3	0	2%	-0.3
Auden Tate	0	1	0	0	2%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Vonn Bell	4	4	0	0
Josh Bynes	4	3	0	0
Germaine Pratt	4	2	0	0
Logan Wilson	3	2	0	0
Mackensie Alexander	3	1	0	1
Darius Phillips	3	0	1	1
Shawn Williams	3	0	0	0
LeShaun Sims	2	0	0	0
Jessie Bates	1	1	0	0
Tyler Boyd	1	0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: CLE -4.5
Closing total: 50
CLE moneyline: -201
CIN moneyline: +179

Browns closed -4.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 50; the game landed 71 — over by 21.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Paul Brown Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 48°F, wind 8 mph
Referee: Tony Corrente
Rest: CLE 7 days · CIN 7 days
Coaches: Kevin Stefanski vs Zac Taylor

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.