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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:20 AM ET · 16 to play
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 15.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 24 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bengals.
MarketModelmodel higher on Bengalshigher on Browns163 of 176 plays carry both curves
(:16) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep right to 11-D.Peoples-Jones for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −47.9 for BengalsExpected points −5.20 for BengalsThe model had Bengals 7 points higher than the market did.play 172
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:16CIN +48% win prob(:16) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep right to 11-D.Peoples-Jones for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 1:09CIN +24% win prob(1:09) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 25-G.Bernard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 8:51CIN +17% win prob(8:51) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle to 85-T.Higgins for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 3:08CLE +16% win prob(3:08) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow sacked at CIN 46 for -12 yards (95-M.Garrett). FUMBLES (95-M.Garrett) [95-M.Garrett], touched at CIN 36, RECOVERED by CLE-33-R.Harrison Jr. at CIN 33. 33-R.Harrison Jr. ran ob at CIN 33 for no gain.
4th · 0:39CIN +16% win prob(:39) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep right to 82-R.Higgins to CIN 24 for 30 yards (23-D.Phillips).
2nd · 0:22CIN +15% win prob(:22) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle to 83-T.Boyd for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the score ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Donovan Peoples-Jones's 24-yard touchdown catch with 0:16 left in the 4th put Cleveland Browns ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
4th1:09Giovani Bernard·3-yd TD catch3-yard touchdown catchfrom Joe Burrowfrom Joe Burrow+731–34
4th0:16Donovan Peoples-Jones·24-yd TD catch24-yard touchdown catchfrom Baker Mayfieldfrom Baker Mayfield · kick no good, wide leftLead never changed again+637–34
12 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Brownscategory by categoryBengals
Browns5–3Bengals
399Total yards468
8.1Yards per play6.4
57%Success rate58%
71%Third-down rate67%
4Red-zone touchdowns4
11Explosive plays7
21First downs30
0Sacks taken4
1Turnovers2
The read
Browns ahead 5–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.83 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.44Browns: +0.44 expected points added per play
+0.26Bengals: +0.26 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.83Browns: +0.83 expected points added per play
+0.37Bengals: +0.37 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.07Browns: −0.07 expected points added per play
−0.04Bengals: −0.04 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Browns ran 49 snaps at a 57% dropback rate against Bengals’s 73 at 73%. Red-zone trips: Browns 5, Bengals 7.
NoteBengals outgained Browns 468-399 but lost the turnover battle 2-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 7 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
CIN's sack or hit rate, 21.4%, is past their previous high of 15.8% in week 5 — the highest of their 7 charted games through week 7.
A 2.3-swing turn from week 6.
28 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.4 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -29 pts to 27 pts
right on their number · +1.9 vs their 11.3%, and they swing ±5.3 week to week (+0.37× that swing) · 53 dropbacks
Bengals21.4%
leaned — got home · +9.0 vs their 12.5%, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (+1.41× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteCIN's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 21.4%, 9.0 points above their season mean of 12.5% and 1.4 times their own 6.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Cleveland Browns
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
75Joel BitonioG · Every snap100%52 snaps
71Jedrick WillsOT · Every snap100%52 snaps
74Chris HubbardG · Every snap100%52 snaps
6Baker MayfieldQB · Every snap100%52 snaps
78Jack ConklinT · Every snap100%52 snaps
64JC TretterC · Every snap100%52 snaps
27Kareem HuntRB · Full-time90%47 snaps
82Rashard HigginsWR · Full-time85%44 snaps
88Harrison BryantTE · Heavy rotation77%40 snaps
80Jarvis LandryWR · Heavy rotation77%40 snaps
11Donovan Peoples-JonesWR · Heavy rotation69%36 snaps
85David NjokuTE · Heavy rotation60%31 snaps
89Stephen CarlsonTE · Situational17%9 snaps
31Andy JanovichRB · Situational17%9 snaps
30D'Ernest JohnsonRB · Situational4%2 snaps
13Odell Beckham Jr.WR · Situational4%2 snaps
Inactive · 6
Joe JacksonDEWyatt TellerGAustin SeibertKJacob PhillipsLBAustin HooperTETaywan TaylorWR
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Case KeenumQB
Cincinnati Bengals
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 3 never used
62Alex RedmondG · Every snap100%75 snaps
60Mike JordanOG · Every snap100%75 snaps
9Joe BurrowQB · Every snap100%75 snaps
89Drew SampleTE · Full-time97%73 snaps
68Bobby HartOT · Full-time95%71 snaps
18A.J. GreenWR · Full-time87%65 snaps
85Tee HigginsWR · Full-time84%63 snaps
83Tyler BoydWR · Full-time80%60 snaps
25Giovani BernardHB · Heavy rotation76%57 snaps
74Fred JohnsonG · Heavy rotation61%46 snaps
53Billy PriceC · Heavy rotation60%45 snaps
66Trey HopkinsG · Rotational40%30 snaps
—Jonah WilliamsOT · Rotational40%30 snaps
34Samaje PerineRB · Rotational25%19 snaps
80Mike ThomasWR · Situational21%16 snaps
86Mason SchreckTE · Situational20%15 snaps
19Auden TateWR · Situational8%6 snaps
77Hakeem AdenijiOG · Situational5%4 snaps
Inactive · 5
William JacksonCBKeaton SutherlandGJoe MixonHBCethan CarterTEJohn RossWR
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bengals attack right, the Browns attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Browns←Bengals→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
B.Mayfield pass+53% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:16) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep right to 11-D.Peoples-Jones for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 0:16 · Browns · 2nd & 10 at CIN 24 · gained 24 · +5.20 EP · +52.7% win probability
162 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 176 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 176 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
12 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was CIN moving 80 yards from the CIN 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CIN attacks right, CLE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
176 of 176 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
176
EPA per play
+0.23
Success rate
51%
Yards
866
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Bengals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR56+0.2377%
Browns1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR29+0.5966%
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14+0.2143%
Browns1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR9+0.2522%
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6+0.7367%
Browns2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Browns2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Bengals1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Bengals2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Bengals1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
176 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
176 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter44 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.4 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.0 seconds
Intercepted13 plays, from the Bengals 28 to the Browns 2
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFive linemen, two linebackers and four backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.8 seconds
Intercepted2 plays, from the Browns 4 to the Browns 10
Browns0Bengals6
Browns0Bengals7
Touchdown5 plays, from the Browns 24 to the Browns 1
Punt7 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Browns 41
Offense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFour
Fumble lost6 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Browns 42
Browns3Bengals7
Field goal5 plays, from the Bengals 33 to the Bengals 21
The period ended5 plays, from the Bengals 19 to the Bengals 28
2nd quarter41 plays
Browns3Bengals10
Field goal8 plays, from midfield to the Browns 11
Browns9Bengals10
Browns10Bengals10
Touchdown15 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Bengals 3
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
Browns10Bengals16
Browns10Bengals17
Touchdown15 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Browns 6
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter33 plays
Browns16Bengals17
Browns17Bengals17
Touchdown11 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Bengals 6
Browns17Bengals20
Field goal15 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Browns 4
The period ended7 plays, from the Browns 21 to the Browns 33
4th quarter58 plays
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.1 seconds
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFive linemen, two linebackers and four backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Browns23Bengals20
Browns24Bengals20
Touchdown5 plays, from the Browns 39 to the Bengals 16
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.7 seconds
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
Browns24Bengals26
Browns24Bengals27
Touchdown15 plays, from the Bengals 20 to the Browns 16
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
Browns30Bengals27
Browns31Bengals27
Touchdown10 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Bengals 8
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.6 seconds
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxFour defenders
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldTwo backs, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldSix linemen, three linebackers and two backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxTen defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.8 seconds
Browns31Bengals33
Browns31Bengals34
Touchdown17 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Browns 3
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Browns37Bengals34
Touchdown8 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Bengals 24
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back and four receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linebackers and nine backsCoveragePreventMan or zoneZoneIn the boxTwo defendersRushing the passerTwoPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw6.5 seconds
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Browns -4.5
Closing total
50
Browns moneyline
-201
Bengals moneyline
+179
Browns closed -4.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 50; the game landed 71 — over by 21.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Paul Brown Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Cool, 49°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 7 mph out of the east; overcast.
Referee
Tony Corrente
Rest
Browns 7 days · Bengals 7 days
Coaches
Kevin Stefanski vs Zac Taylor
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
4th · 13:19CIN +14% win prob(13:19) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep middle to 85-D.Njoku for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 9:24CLE +13% win prob(9:24) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle intended for 83-T.Boyd INTERCEPTED by 93-B.Goodson (21-D.Ward) at CLE -3. 93-B.Goodson to CLE 4 for 7 yards (83-T.Boyd).
