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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:35 AM ET · 16 to play
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 5.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 15 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Commanders.
MarketModelmodel higher on Commandershigher on Cowboys152 of 158 plays carry both curves
(10:02) (Shotgun) 8-K.Allen pass deep left to 17-T.McLaurin for 52 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on DAL-27-T.Diggs, Illegal Contact, declined.
Swing +11.4 for CommandersExpected points +4.84 for CommandersThe model had Commanders 8 points higher than the market did.play 53
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 10:02WAS +11% win prob(10:02) (Shotgun) 8-K.Allen pass deep left to 17-T.McLaurin for 52 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on DAL-27-T.Diggs, Illegal Contact, declined.
1st · 11:49WAS +11% win prob(11:49) (No Huddle) 24-A.Gibson right end to DAL 5 for 40 yards (25-X.Woods).
1st · 3:53WAS +8% win prob(3:53) 24-A.Gibson left guard for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 3:48WAS +8% win prob3-D.Hopkins kicks 66 yards from WAS 35 to DAL -1. 20-T.Pollard to WAS 34 for 67 yards (30-T.Apke).
1st · 5:04WAS +7% win prob(5:04) 8-K.Allen pass deep right to 82-L.Thomas to DAL 19 for 26 yards (37-D.Wilson).
2nd · 5:45WAS +6% win prob(5:45) (Shotgun) 8-K.Allen scrambles right end ran ob at DAL 36 for 13 yards (27-T.Diggs).
1st · 9:53
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Jonathan Allen's safety with 7:54 left in the 1st put Washington Commanders ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Lead
1st7:54Jonathan Allen·safetysafetytwo points, and the ball backtwo points, and the ball backLead never changed again+20–2
4th13:27Dustin Hopkins·30-yd field goal30-yard field goalholder T.Way · snap N.Sundberg+33–25
6 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Cowboyscategory by categoryCommanders
Cowboys0–9Commanders
142Total yards399
2.6Yards per play6.1
37%Success rate40%
25%Third-down rate60%
0Red-zone touchdowns2
2Explosive plays9
11First downs19
6Sacks taken2
1Turnovers0
The read
Commanders ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.30Cowboys: −0.30 expected points added per play
+0.11Commanders: +0.11 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.33Cowboys: −0.33 expected points added per play
+0.33Commanders: +0.33 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.26Cowboys: −0.26 expected points added per play
−0.06Commanders: −0.06 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Cowboys ran 54 snaps at a 57% dropback rate against Commanders’s 65 at 45%. Red-zone trips: Cowboys 1, Commanders 5.
NoteCommanders won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.11 expected points added per play vs -0.30.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
WAS's early-down pass rate, 37.5%, was the lowest of the 28 team-games charted in week 7 — 1.4 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous low of 44.9% in week 1.
48 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.8 points.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekOver Expected
DAL's pass rate over expected, −14.1 pts, was the lowest of the 28 team-games charted in week 7 — 2.2 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous low of −7.5 pts in week 5.
54 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.4 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 17 pts
right on their number · +0.9 vs their 12.9%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (+0.12× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
Commanders25.8%
leaned — got home · +10.1 vs their 15.7%, and they swing ±8.4 week to week (+1.19× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteWAS's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 37.5%, 22.1 points below their season mean of 59.6% and 1.7 times their own 12.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Commanders attack right, the Cowboys attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Cowboys←Commanders→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
A.Gibson right+12% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(11:49) (No Huddle) 24-A.Gibson right end to DAL 5 for 40 yards (25-X.Woods).
Q1 11:49 · Commanders · 2nd & 9 at DAL 45 · gained 40 · +3.19 EP · +11.8% win probability
150 snaps placed · 8 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 158 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 158 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
5 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was WAS moving 74 yards from the WAS 25 for a turnover on downs. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; WAS attacks right, DAL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
158 of 158 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
158
EPA per play
-0.02
Success rate
39%
Yards
539
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Cowboys1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR42-0.2257%
Commanders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR19-0.0563%
Commanders2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR19+0.4621%
Commanders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR19+0.1258%
Cowboys1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10-0.2320%
Commanders1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR7+0.1614%
Commanders1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Cowboys1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Cowboys1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
158 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
158 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter42 plays
FormationJumboOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Turnover on downs13 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Cowboys 1
Cowboys0Commanders2
Drive ended6 plays, from the Cowboys 1 to the Cowboys 16
Cowboys0Commanders8
Cowboys0Commanders9
Touchdown9 plays, from the Commanders 37 to the Cowboys 12
Cowboys3Commanders9
Field goal5 plays, from the Commanders 34 to the Commanders 27
Punt6 plays, from the Commanders 24 to the Commanders 49
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter51 plays
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Cowboys 19 to the Commanders 45
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.8 seconds
Cowboys3Commanders15
Touchdown3 plays, from the Commanders 45 to the Commanders 48
Punt7 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Cowboys 36
Cowboys3Commanders21
Cowboys3Commanders22
Touchdown13 plays, from the Commanders 40 to the Cowboys 15
Intercepted17 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Commanders 12
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter33 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Cowboys 35
Punt10 plays, from the Commanders 24 to the Cowboys 41
Punt9 plays, from the Cowboys 3 to the Cowboys 47
The period ended7 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Cowboys 24
4th quarter32 plays
Cowboys3Commanders25
Field goal5 plays, from the Cowboys 16 to the Cowboys 12
Punt6 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Cowboys 26
No good12 plays, from the Commanders 32 to the Cowboys 26
Punt4 plays, from the Cowboys 35 to the Cowboys 41
The period ended5 plays, from the Commanders 19 to the Commanders 31
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Cowboys -1
Closing total
44.5
Cowboys moneyline
-110
Commanders moneyline
+100
Cowboys closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 44.5; the game landed 28 — under by 16.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
FedExField
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Cool, 48°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 9 mph out of the north-east; 0.08 in of precipitation; dense drizzle.
Referee
Ronald Torbert
Rest
Cowboys 6 days · Commanders 7 days
Coaches
Mike McCarthy vs Ron Rivera
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
WAS +6% win prob
(9:53) 14-A.Dalton left guard to DAL 4 for 3 yards (94-D.Payne). PENALTY on WAS-94-D.Payne, Encroachment, 5 yards, enforced at DAL 1 - No Play.
2nd · 0:39DAL +5% win prob(:39) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short middle intended for 21-E.Elliott INTERCEPTED by 55-C.Holcomb at WAS 5. 55-C.Holcomb to WAS 5 for no gain (21-E.Elliott).
