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2020 Week 7 · Sun, Oct 25, 2020 · FedExField
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Washington Commanders 25–3 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 10:02, WAS +11% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
(10:02) (Shotgun) 8-K.Allen pass deep left to 17-T.McLaurin for 52 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on DAL-27-T.Diggs, Illegal Contact, declined.
Down-to-down truth
| Metric | Cowboys | Commanders |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 54 | 65 |
| Total yards | 142 | 399 (edge) |
| Yards per play | 2.6 | 6.1 (edge) |
| Expected points added / play | -0.30 | 0.11 (edge) |
| Success rate | 37% | 40% (edge) |
| Dropback rate | 57% | 45% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.33 | 0.33 (edge) |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.26 | -0.06 (edge) |
| Third downs | 3/12 | 9/15 (edge) |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 2 | 9 (edge) |
| First downs gained on snaps | 11 | 19 (edge) |
| Sacks taken | 6 | 2 (edge) |
| Turnovers | 1 | 0 (edge) |
Commanders won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.11 expected points added per play vs -0.30.
Who moved the needle
Passing · WAS
15/25, 194 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
7.4 expected points added · +6.5% completion over expected
Passing · DAL
9/19, 75 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT
-9.7 expected points added · -19.4% completion over expected
Possession by possession
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | WAS | WAS 25 | 12 | 70 | 5:07 | Turnover on downs | |
| 2 | DAL | DAL 1 | 5 | -6 | 2:08 | Turnover on downs | |
| 3 | WAS | WAS 37 | 9 | 63 | 3:57 | Touchdown | |
| 4 | DAL | WAS 34 | 5 | 7 | 1:56 | Turnover on downs | |
| 5 | WAS | WAS 24 | 5 | 5 | 1:49 | Punt | |
| 6 | DAL | DAL 14 | 9 | 36 | 4:23 | Turnover on downs | |
| 7 | WAS | WAS 45 | 3 | 55 | 0:46 | Touchdown | |
| 8 | DAL | DAL 25 | 7 | 3 | 2:41 | Punt | |
| 9 | WAS | WAS 40 | 11 | 60 | 4:05 | Touchdown | |
| 10 | DAL | DAL 25 | 14 | 68 | 2:35 | Interception | |
| 11 | WAS | WAS 5 | 1 | 0 | 0:33 | End of half | |
| 12 | DAL | DAL 25 | 7 | 4 | 2:04 | Punt | |
| 13 | WAS | WAS 24 | 10 | 35 | 5:43 | Punt | |
| 14 | DAL | DAL 3 | 9 | 22 | 4:12 | Punt | |
| 15 | WAS | WAS 25 | 11 | 63 | 4:38 | Turnover on downs | |
| 16 | DAL | DAL 25 | 5 | 11 | 1:42 | Punt | |
| 17 | WAS | WAS 32 | 10 | 36 | 7:02 | Turnover on downs | |
| 18 | DAL | DAL 35 | 4 | -3 | 1:55 | Punt | |
| 19 | WAS | WAS 19 | 4 | 12 | 2:44 | End of game |
0 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: Commanders gained 70 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a turnover on downs.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 9/19 | 75 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -9.7 |
| Ben DiNucci | 2/3 | 39 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -2.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ezekiel Elliott | 12 | 45 | 3.8 | 0 | -0.7 |
| Andy Dalton | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 | 2.1 |
| Tony Pollard | 8 | 16 | 2.0 | 0 | -2.7 |
| Amari Cooper | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 | 0.2 |
| CeeDee Lamb |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amari Cooper | 7 | 7 | 80 | 0 | 33% | 6.7 |
| Dalton Schultz | 2 | 4 | 22 | 0 | 19% | -1.4 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 10% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leighton Vander Esch | 9 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaylon Smith | 6 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Demarcus Lawrence | 4 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jourdan Lewis |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Allen | 15/25 | 194 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Gibson | 20 | 128 | 6.4 | 1 |
Closing number vs result
Cowboys closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 44.5; the game landed 28 — under by 16.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 1 |
| 1 |
| 1.0 |
| 0 |
| -1.3 |
| Ben DiNucci | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | -1.5 |
| -3.6 |
| Tony Pollard | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 5% | 0.5 |
| CeeDee Lamb | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 24% | -3.5 |
| Michael Gallup | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 10% | -1.9 |
| 2 |
| 3 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Everson Griffen | 3 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Neville Gallimore | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dorance Armstrong | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Steven Parker | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Anthony Brown | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Aldon Smith | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3.2 |
| J.D. McKissic | 5 | 35 | 7.0 | 0 | 1.2 |
| Peyton Barber | 10 | 34 | 3.4 | 0 | -2.7 |
| Kyle Allen | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 0 | -1.8 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry McLaurin | 7 | 11 | 90 | 1 | 52% | 3.7 |
| Logan Thomas | 4 | 4 | 60 | 1 | 19% | 5.6 |
| Cam Sims | 1 | 1 | 22 | 0 | 5% | 1.3 |
| J.D. McKissic | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 10% | 2.8 |
| Jeremy Sprinkle | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 5% | 0.3 |
| Antonio Gibson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5% | -0.5 |
| Temarrick Hemingway | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5% | -0.8 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Bostic | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chase Young | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ronald Darby | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Cole Holcomb | 4 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Landon Collins | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kamren Curl | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kevin Pierre-Louis | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Deshazor Everett | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Montez Sweat | 2 | 1 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ryan Kerrigan | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
