2020 Week 7 · Sun, Oct 25, 2020 · FedExField

Dallas Cowboys

Washington CommandersWinner

DAL -1 upsetU 44.5 ✓Cowboys closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Washington Commanders 25–3 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 10:02, WAS +11% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 10:02DAL — WAS WAS ball · 2nd & 7WAS 65%

(10:02) (Shotgun) 8-K.Allen pass deep left to 17-T.McLaurin for 52 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on DAL-27-T.Diggs, Illegal Contact, declined.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 10:02WAS +11% win prob(10:02) (Shotgun) 8-K.Allen pass deep left to 17-T.McLaurin for 52 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on DAL-27-T.Diggs, Illegal Contact, declined.
Q1 · 11:49WAS +11% win prob(11:49) (No Huddle) 24-A.Gibson right end to DAL 5 for 40 yards (25-X.Woods).
Q1 · 3:53WAS +8% win prob(3:53) 24-A.Gibson left guard for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 3:48WAS +8% win prob3-D.Hopkins kicks 66 yards from WAS 35 to DAL -1. 20-T.Pollard to WAS 34 for 67 yards (30-T.Apke).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Cowboys	Commanders
Offensive plays	54	65
Total yards	142	399 (edge)
Yards per play	2.6	6.1 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.30	0.11 (edge)
Success rate	37%	40% (edge)
Dropback rate	57%	45%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.33	0.33 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.26	-0.06 (edge)
Third downs	3/12	9/15 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	2	9 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	11	19 (edge)
Sacks taken	6	2 (edge)
Turnovers	1	0 (edge)

Commanders won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.11 expected points added per play vs -0.30.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · WAS

Kyle AllenQB

15/25, 194 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

7.4 expected points added · +6.5% completion over expected

Passing · DAL

Andy DaltonQB

9/19, 75 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-9.7 expected points added · -19.4% completion over expected

Rushing · WAS

Antonio GibsonRB

20 att, 128 yds, 1 TD

3.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · DAL

Ezekiel ElliottRB

12 att, 45 yds, 0 TD

-0.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · WAS

Terry McLaurinWR

7/11 for 90 yds, 1 TD

52% of team targets · 3.7 expected points added

Receiving · DAL

Amari CooperWR

7/7 for 80 yds, 0 TD

33% of team targets · 6.7 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	WAS	WAS 25	12	70	5:07	Turnover on downs
2	DAL	DAL 1	5	-6	2:08	Turnover on downs
3	WAS	WAS 37	9	63	3:57	Touchdown
4	DAL	WAS 34	5	7	1:56	Turnover on downs
5	WAS	WAS 24	5	5	1:49	Punt
6	DAL	DAL 14	9	36	4:23	Turnover on downs
7	WAS	WAS 45	3	55	0:46	Touchdown
8	DAL	DAL 25	7	3	2:41	Punt
9	WAS	WAS 40	11	60	4:05	Touchdown
10	DAL	DAL 25	14	68	2:35	Interception
11	WAS	WAS 5	1	0	0:33	End of half
12	DAL	DAL 25	7	4	2:04	Punt
13	WAS	WAS 24	10	35	5:43	Punt
14	DAL	DAL 3	9	22	4:12	Punt
15	WAS	WAS 25	11	63	4:38	Turnover on downs
16	DAL	DAL 25	5	11	1:42	Punt
17	WAS	WAS 32	10	36	7:02	Turnover on downs
18	DAL	DAL 35	4	-3	1:55	Punt
19	WAS	WAS 19	4	12	2:44	End of game

0 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: Commanders gained 70 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a turnover on downs.

Full stat lines

Box score

Dallas Cowboys

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Andy Dalton	9/19	75	0	1	3	-9.7
Ben DiNucci	2/3	39	0	0	3	-2.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Ezekiel Elliott	12	45	3.8	-0.7
Andy Dalton	3	16	5.3	2.1
Tony Pollard	8	16	2.0	-2.7
Amari Cooper	1	5	5.0	0.2
CeeDee Lamb	1	1	1.0	-1.3
Ben DiNucci	1	0	0.0	-1.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Amari Cooper	7	7	80	33%	6.7
Dalton Schultz	2	4	22	19%	-1.4
Ezekiel Elliott	1	2	6	10%	-3.6
Tony Pollard	1	1	6	5%	0.5
CeeDee Lamb	0	5	0	24%	-3.5
Michael Gallup	0	2	0	10%	-1.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks
Leighton Vander Esch	9	3	0.0
Jaylon Smith	6	6	0.0
Demarcus Lawrence	4	3	1.0
Jourdan Lewis	2	3	0.0
Everson Griffen	3	2	1.0
Neville Gallimore	1	3	0.0
Dorance Armstrong	3	0	0.0
Steven Parker	2	1	0.0
Anthony Brown	3	0	0.0
Aldon Smith	1	2	0.0

Washington Commanders

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Kyle Allen	15/25	194	2	0	2	7.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Antonio Gibson	20	128	6.4	1	3.2
J.D. McKissic	5	35	7.0	0	1.2
Peyton Barber	10	34	3.4	0	-2.7
Kyle Allen	4	11	2.8	0	-1.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Terry McLaurin	7	11	90	1	52%	3.7
Logan Thomas	4	4	60	1	19%	5.6
Cam Sims	1	1	22	0	5%	1.3
J.D. McKissic	2	2	16	0	10%	2.8
Jeremy Sprinkle	1	1	6	0	5%	0.3
Antonio Gibson	0	1	0	0	5%	-0.5
Temarrick Hemingway	0	1	0	0	5%	-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Jon Bostic	4	2	0.0	0	0
Chase Young	5	1	0.0	0	0
Ronald Darby	4	1	0.0	0	1
Cole Holcomb	4	1	1.0	1	1
Landon Collins	2	2	1.0	0	0
Kamren Curl	3	0	0.0	0	0
Kevin Pierre-Louis	2	1	0.0	0	1
Deshazor Everett	3	0	0.0	0	1
Montez Sweat	2	1	2.0	0	0
Ryan Kerrigan	1	1	1.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: DAL -1
Closing total: 44.5
DAL moneyline: -110
WAS moneyline: +100

Cowboys closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 44.5; the game landed 28 — under by 16.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: FedExField
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 46°F, wind 5 mph
Referee: Ronald Torbert
Rest: DAL 6 days · WAS 7 days
Coaches: Mike McCarthy vs Ron Rivera

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.