2020 Week 7 · Sun, Oct 25, 2020 · NRG Stadium

Green Bay PackersWinner

Houston Texans

GB -2.5 ✓U 55.5 ✓DomePackers closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 15.

Green Bay Packers 35–20. Biggest swing: Q1 12:34, HOU +8% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 12:34GB — HOU GB ball · 2nd & 5GB 60%

(12:34) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 30-J.Williams to HOU 40 for 17 yards (41-Z.Cunningham). PENALTY on HOU-20-Ju.Reid, Lowering the Head to Initiate Contact, 15 yards, enforced at HOU 40.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 12:34HOU +8% win prob(12:34) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 30-J.Williams to HOU 40 for 17 yards (41-Z.Cunningham). PENALTY on HOU-20-Ju.Reid, Lowering the Head to Initiate Contact, 15 yards, enforced at HOU 40.
Q1 · 0:50HOU +5% win prob(:50) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep left to 17-D.Adams to HOU 49 for 28 yards (26-V.Hargreaves).
Q2 · 2:41GB +5% win prob(2:41) 7-K.Fairbairn 41 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-B.Anger.
Q2 · 15:00HOU +4% win prob(15:00) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep left to 17-D.Adams pushed ob at HOU 5 for 36 yards (29-P.Gaines).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Packers	Texans
Offensive plays	59	64
Total yards	380 (edge)	365
Yards per play	6.4 (edge)	5.7
Expected points added / play	0.29 (edge)	-0.02
Success rate	56% (edge)	45%
Dropback rate	58%	75%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.53 (edge)	0.17
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.03 (edge)	-0.60
Third downs	7/12 (edge)	6/14
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5	5
First downs gained on snaps	20 (edge)	19
Sacks taken	0 (edge)	3
Turnovers	0 (edge)	1

Packers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.29 expected points added per play vs -0.02.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · HOU

Deshaun WatsonQB

29/39, 309 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

7.8 expected points added · +4.9% completion over expected

Passing · GB

Aaron RodgersQB

23/34, 283 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT

18.0 expected points added · -2.5% completion over expected

Rushing · GB

Jamaal WilliamsRB

19 att, 77 yds, 1 TD

0.1 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · HOU

David JohnsonRB

14 att, 42 yds, 0 TD

-3.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · GB

Davante AdamsWR

13/16 for 196 yds, 2 TD

47% of team targets · 17.8 expected points added

Receiving · HOU

Randall CobbWR

8/10 for 95 yds, 0 TD

26% of team targets · 4.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	GB	GB 25	12	55	5:39	Touchdown
2	HOU	HOU 25	5	8	2:06	Punt
3	GB	GB 20	4	2	1:27	Punt
4	HOU	HOU 16	7	28	2:38	Punt
5	GB	GB 12	10	88	4:37	Touchdown
6	HOU	HOU 25	8	15	3:57	Punt
7	GB	GB 17	5	39	2:24	Punt
8	HOU	HOU 2	9	81	4:34	Turnover on downs
9	GB	GB 31	10	69	2:24	Touchdown
10	HOU	HOU 25	2	3	0:14	End of half
11	HOU	HOU 25	13	65	6:05	Touchdown
12	GB	GB 25	10	75	4:11	Touchdown
13	HOU	HOU 25	5	6	0:52	Punt
14	GB	GB 24	4	0	1:04	Punt
15	HOU	HOU 33	7	47	3:36	Turnover on downs
16	GB	GB 26	5	6	2:04	Punt
17	HOU	GB 22	7	11	2:12	Turnover on downs
18	GB	GB 21	5	0	0:24	Punt
19	HOU	HOU 38	4	18	2:34	Turnover on downs
20	GB	HOU 46	8	46	3:18	Touchdown
21	HOU	HOU 25	11	75	2:07	Touchdown
22	HOU	GB 47	2	8	0:11	Fumble
23	GB	GB 32	2	0	1:22	End of game

0 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Packers gained 88 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Green Bay Packers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Aaron Rodgers	23/34	283	4	0	0	18.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Jamaal Williams	19	77	4.1	1	0.1
A.J. Dillon	5	11	2.2	0	-1.6
Marquez Valdes-Scantling	1	9	9.0	0	0.9
Tim Boyle	2	-1	-0.5	0	0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Davante Adams	13	16	196	2	47%	17.8
Jamaal Williams	4	5	37	0	15%	2.4
Robert Tonyan	2	2	32	0	6%	1.2
Marcedes Lewis	1	3	9	0	9%	-0.7
Malik Taylor	2	2	6	1	6%	1.5
Jace Sternberger	1	1	3	1	3%	1.3
Marquez Valdes-Scantling	0	4	0	0	12%	-4.3
Darrius Shepherd	0	1	0	0	3%	-1.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Raven Greene	5	3	0.0	2
Krys Barnes	3	4	1.0	0
Adrian Amos	5	1	1.0	0
Will Redmond	3	3	0.0	0
Kamal Martin	5	0	0.0	0
Josh Jackson	4	0	0.0	0
Chandon Sullivan	3	0	0.0	1
Ty Summers	2	1	0.0	0
Za'Darius Smith	2	1	1.0	0
Preston Smith	2	1	0.0	0

Houston Texans

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Deshaun Watson	29/39	309	2	0	3	7.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
David Johnson	14	42	3.0	-3.7
Deshaun Watson	7	38	5.4	-0.2
Duke Johnson	1	-1	-1.0	-2.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Randall Cobb	8	10	95	0	26%	4.2
Brandin Cooks	7	9	60	0	24%	2.8
Duke Johnson	5	5	43	0	13%	0.6
David Johnson	4	4	42	1	11%	0.5
Will Fuller	3	6	35	1	16%	2.8
Kenny Stills	2	4	34	0	11%	-0.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast
Tyrell Adams	5	6
Zach Cunningham	4	7
Eric Murray	4	2
Phillip Gaines	4	1
J.J. Watt	4	1
Justin Reid	2	2
Vernon Hargreaves	3	0
Brandon Dunn	1	1
Lonnie Johnson	1	1
Brandin Cooks	1	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: GB -2.5
Closing total: 55.5
GB moneyline: -140
HOU moneyline: +127

Packers closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 15.

Total closed 55.5; the game landed 55 — under by 0.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: NRG Stadium
Roof / surface: closed · grass
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Clay Martin
Rest: GB 7 days · HOU 7 days
Coaches: Matt LaFleur vs Romeo Crennel