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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:22 AM ET · 16 to play
Green Bay Packers 35, Texans 20 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q1 12:34, 2nd and 5, on Jamaal Williams — 8.2 win-probability points to the Packers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 12:34 · 2nd and 5
Jamaal Williams
Packers
(12:34) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 30-J.Williams to HOU 40 for 17 yards (41-Z.Cunningham). PENALTY on HOU-20-Ju.Reid, Lowering the Head to Initiate Contact, 15 yards, enforced at HOU 40.
Dome
Packers closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 15.
Green Bay Packers 35–20. Biggest swing: Q1 12:34, Packers +8.2% win probability on one snap.
8.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Davante AdamsPackersQ1 0:50(:50) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep left to 17-D.Adams to HOU 49 for 28 yards (26-V.Hargreaves).
4.9pts
Ka'imi FairbairnPackersQ2 2:41(2:41) 7-K.Fairbairn 41 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-B.Anger.
4.7pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Packers won this one — -0.03 expected points per carry, against Texans at -0.60 expected points per carry.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Packers won this one — +0.29 expected points per snap, against Texans at -0.02 expected points per snap.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Packers won this one — 56% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Texans at 45% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Packers won this one — +0.53 expected points per dropback, against Texans at +0.17 expected points per dropback.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 5.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 17 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Texans.
MarketModelmodel higher on Texanshigher on Packers165 of 173 plays carry both curves
(12:34) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 30-J.Williams to HOU 40 for 17 yards (41-Z.Cunningham). PENALTY on HOU-20-Ju.Reid, Lowering the Head to Initiate Contact, 15 yards, enforced at HOU 40.
Swing −8.2 for TexansExpected points −2.56 for TexansThe model had Texans 15 points higher than the market did.play 7
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 12:34HOU +8% win prob(12:34) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 30-J.Williams to HOU 40 for 17 yards (41-Z.Cunningham). PENALTY on HOU-20-Ju.Reid, Lowering the Head to Initiate Contact, 15 yards, enforced at HOU 40.
1st · 0:50HOU +5% win prob(:50) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep left to 17-D.Adams to HOU 49 for 28 yards (26-V.Hargreaves).
2nd · 2:41GB +5% win prob(2:41) 7-K.Fairbairn 41 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-B.Anger.
2nd · 15:00HOU +4% win prob(15:00) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep left to 17-D.Adams pushed ob at HOU 5 for 36 yards (29-P.Gaines).
1st · 9:26HOU +4% win prob(9:26) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 17-D.Adams for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 13:38HOU +4% win prob(13:38) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 87-J.Sternberger for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Davante Adams's 3-yard touchdown catch with 9:26 left in the 1st put Green Bay Packers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
Packers ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.60 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.29Packers: +0.29 expected points added per play
−0.02Texans: −0.02 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.53Packers: +0.53 expected points added per play
+0.17Texans: +0.17 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.03Packers: −0.03 expected points added per play
−0.60Texans: −0.60 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Packers ran 59 snaps at a 58% dropback rate against Texans’s 64 at 75%. Red-zone trips: Packers 5, Texans 4.
NotePackers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.29 expected points added per play vs -0.02.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
HOU's early-down pass rate turned over: 57.1% in week 6 against 71.4% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
49 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.8 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -13 pts to 22 pts
inside their normal wobble · −4.5 vs their 12.9%, and they swing ±4.7 week to week (−0.96× that swing) · 48 dropbacks
Texans2.9%
leaned — stayed blocked · −10.9 vs their 13.9%, and they swing ±6.8 week to week (−1.61× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteHOU's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 2.9%, 10.9 points below their season mean of 13.9% and 1.6 times their own 6.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Texans attack right, the Packers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Packers←Texans→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
A.Rodgers pass+10% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(12:34) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 30-J.Williams to HOU 40 for 17 yards (41-Z.Cunningham). PENALTY on HOU-20-Ju.Reid, Lowering the Head to Initiate Contact, 15 yards, enforced at HOU 40.
Q1 12:34 · Packers · 2nd & 5 at GB 43 · gained 17 · +2.56 EP · +10.0% win probability
163 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 173 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 173 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was GB moving 88 yards from the GB 12 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; HOU attacks right, GB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
173 of 173 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
173
EPA per play
+0.03
Success rate
46%
Yards
744
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Texans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR40+0.1668%
Packers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR30+0.4557%
Packers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR20+0.1055%
Texans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10-0.6150%
Texans1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR7-0.5986%
Packers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6+0.1367%
Texans2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6+0.5167%
Packers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Packers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Texans1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
173 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
173 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
Packers6Texans0
Packers7Texans0
Touchdown13 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Texans 3
Punt5 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Texans 34
Punt5 plays, from the Packers 20 to the Packers 22
Punt7 plays, from the Texans 16 to the Texans 44
The period ended7 plays, from the Packers 12 to the Texans 49
2nd quarter44 plays
Packers13Texans0
Packers14Texans0
Touchdown4 plays, from the Texans 41 to the Texans 3
Punt8 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Texans 40
Punt6 plays, from the Packers 17 to the Texans 44
No good11 plays, from the Texans 2 to the Packers 21
Packers20Texans0
Packers21Texans0
Touchdown12 plays, from the Packers 31 to the Texans 1
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter40 plays
Packers21Texans6
Packers21Texans7
Touchdown15 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Packers 2
Packers27Texans7
Packers28Texans7
Touchdown10 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Texans 45
Punt5 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Texans 31
Punt4 plays
The period ended6 plays, from the Texans 33 to the Packers 14
4th quarter51 plays
Packers28Texans10
Field goal2 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Packers 26 to the Packers 35
Packers28Texans13
Field goal7 plays, from the Packers 22 to the Packers 8
Punt5 plays
Turnover on downs6 plays, from the Texans 38 to the Texans 47
Packers34Texans13
Packers35Texans13
Touchdown10 plays, from the Texans 46 to the Texans 1
Packers35Texans19
Packers35Texans20
Touchdown11 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Packers 6
Fumble lost2 plays
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Packerscategory by categoryTexans
Packers6
Texans0
