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2020 Week 7 · Sun, Oct 25, 2020 · SoFi Stadium

Jacksonville Jaguars

29

Los Angeles ChargersWinner

39

LAC -8 ✓O 48 ✓Dome

Los Angeles Chargers 39–29. Biggest swing: Q3 3:00, LAC +25% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3LAC ↑JAX ↓
Q3 · 3:00JAX — LAC JAX ball · 3rd & 7LAC 65%

(3:00) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew II pass deep left to 18-C.Conley for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q3 · 3:00LAC +25% win prob(3:00) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew II pass deep left to 18-C.Conley for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  2. Q3 · 13:30JAX +23% win prob(13:30) 1-T.Long punt is BLOCKED by 20-D.Thomas, Center-45-C.Mazza, RECOVERED by JAX-20-D.Thomas at LAC 16. 20-D.Thomas for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  3. Q3 · 2:06LAC +23% win prob(2:06) 10-J.Herbert pass deep right to 15-J.Guyton for 70 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  4. Q3 · 1:56JAX +17% win prob1-T.Long kicks 64 yards from LAC 35 to JAX 1. 12-D.Westbrook to JAX 24 for 23 yards (37-T.Campbell; 46-M.Jefferson). FUMBLES (37-T.Campbell), touched at JAX 23, RECOVERED by LAC-35-T.Pope at JAX 19.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricJaguarsChargers
Offensive plays6274
Total yards298487 (edge)
Yards per play4.86.6 (edge)
Expected points added / play-0.080.19 (edge)
Success rate39%50% (edge)
Dropback rate61%65%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)-0.070.38 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.09 (edge)-0.16
Third downs6/156/13 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)99
First downs gained on snaps1626 (edge)
Sacks taken51 (edge)
Turnovers10 (edge)

Chargers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.19 expected points added per play vs -0.08.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · LAC

Justin HerbertQB

27/43, 347 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

14.6 expected points added · -3.6% completion over expected

Passing · JAX

Gardner MinshewQB

14/27, 173 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

-0.4 expected points added · -8.3% completion over expected

Rushing · JAX

James RobinsonRB

22 att, 119 yds, 1 TD

-1.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · LAC

Justin HerbertQB

9 att, 66 yds, 1 TD

1.9 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · LAC

Keenan AllenWR

10/13 for 125 yds, 0 TD

31% of team targets · 11.1 expected points added

Receiving · LAC

Jalen GuytonWR

2/3 for 84 yds, 1 TD

7% of team targets · 4.7 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1JAXJAX 25560:57Punt
2LACLAC 69773:48Turnover on downs
3JAXJAX 25521:59Punt
4LACLAC 26460:55Punt
5JAXJAX 40431:37Punt
6LACLAC 2912715:39Touchdown
7JAXJAX 25531:32Punt
8LACLAC 387472:59Touchdown
9JAXJAX 228802:48Touchdown
10LACLAC 13541:06Punt
11JAXJAX 405291:45Turnover on downs
12LACLAC 31451:03Punt
13JAXJAX 3312673:41Touchdown
14LACLAC 40300:11End of half
15LACLAC 25591:39Defensive touchdown
16LACLAC 259453:03Turnover on downs
17JAXJAX 38491:57Turnover on downs
18LACJAX 477422:56Touchdown
19JAXJAX 268562:31Touchdown
20LACLAC 204800:58Touchdown
21JAX—100:09Fumble
22LACJAX 195191:42Touchdown
23JAXJAX 189294:03Punt
24LACLAC 1011584:36Turnover on downs
25JAXJAX 259142:30Turnover on downs
26LACJAX 399243:56End of game

0 of 26 drives ended in points. Longest march: Jaguars gained 80 scrimmage yards over 8 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Jacksonville Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Gardner Minshew14/27173205-0.4

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
James Robinson221195.41-1.3
Gardner Minshew4215.30-2.1
Laviska Shenault Jr.100.00-0.8

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Laviska Shenault Jr.3344013%4.9
James O'Shaughnessy3332013%2.1
Chris Conley122818%3.3
D.J. Chark1726029%-6.6
James Robinson4618125%0.8
Collin Johnson111304%1.5
Keelan Cole121208%2.0

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Davon Hamilton440.000
C.J. Henderson530.000
Joe Schobert260.000
Josh Jones520.000
Brandon Rusnak430.000
Quincy Williams340.001
Tre Herndon320.000
Dare Ogunbowale110.000
Dawuane Smoot110.500
Taven Bryan110.500

Los Angeles Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Justin Herbert27/4334730114.6
Easton Stick1/14000-0.2

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Justin Herbert9667.311.9
Joshua Kelley12292.40-3.4
Joe Reed2147.011.7
Justin Jackson5122.40-3.1
Tyron Johnson2105.00-0.1
Troymaine Pope166.000.0
Easton Stick1-2-2.00-1.1

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Keenan Allen1013125031%11.1
Jalen Guyton238417%4.7
Justin Jackson5643014%1.8
Virgil Green122615%1.9
Joshua Kelley5524012%2.6
Hunter Henry3723017%-3.7
Donald Parham112212%2.3
Mike Williams13407%-2.0
Tyron Johnson01002%-0.5
Gabe Nabers01002%-1.6

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Rayshawn Jenkins710.000
Kyzir White250.500
Uchenna Nwosu321.500
Linval Joseph320.000
Kenneth Murray320.001
Desmond King311.000
Nasir Adderley300.000
Damion Square211.000
Denzel Perryman210.000
Joey Bosa210.500

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
LAC -8
Closing total
48
JAX moneyline
+325
LAC moneyline
-389

Chargers closed -8 and covered, winning by 10.

Total closed 48; the game landed 68 — over by 20.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
SoFi Stadium
Roof / surface
dome · matrixturf
Kickoff weather
Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee
Clete Blakeman
Rest
JAX 7 days · LAC 13 days
Coaches
Doug Marrone vs Anthony Lynn