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Jacksonville Jaguars 29 at Los Angeles Chargers 39. Final.
Chargers -8 ✓O 48 ✓
The verdict · 2020 Week 7
Los Angeles Chargers 39, Jaguars 29 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q3 3:00, 3rd and 7, on Chris Conley — 24.5 win-probability points to the Jaguars on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 3:00 · 3rd and 7
Chris Conley
Jaguars
(3:00) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew II pass deep left to 18-C.Conley for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Dome
Chargers closed -8 and covered, winning by 10.
Los Angeles Chargers 39–29. Biggest swing: Q3 3:00, Jaguars +24.5% win probability on one snap.
24.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Unnamed on the sheetJaguarsQ3 13:30(13:30) 1-T.Long punt is BLOCKED by 20-D.Thomas, Center-45-C.Mazza, RECOVERED by JAX-20-D.Thomas at LAC 16. 20-D.Thomas for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
22.9pts
Jalen GuytonChargersQ3 2:06(2:06) 10-J.Herbert pass deep right to 15-J.Guyton for 70 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
22.5pts
What separated them
Red zone
Jaguars owned this one and still lost it — 2 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Chargers at 2 touchdowns on 8 trips.
Jaguarsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Chargers won this one — 50% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Jaguars at 39% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Chargersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Chargers won this one — +0.38 expected points per dropback, against Jaguars at -0.07 expected points per dropback.
Chargersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Chargers won this one — +0.19 expected points per snap, against Jaguars at -0.08 expected points per snap.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 10.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 22 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jaguars.
MarketModelmodel higher on Chargershigher on Jaguars177 of 184 plays carry both curves
(3:00) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew II pass deep left to 18-C.Conley for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −24.5 for ChargersExpected points −3.86 for ChargersThe model had Jaguars 18 points higher than the market did.play 130
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 3:00LAC +25% win prob(3:00) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew II pass deep left to 18-C.Conley for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 13:30JAX +23% win prob(13:30) 1-T.Long punt is BLOCKED by 20-D.Thomas, Center-45-C.Mazza, RECOVERED by JAX-20-D.Thomas at LAC 16. 20-D.Thomas for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 2:06LAC +23% win prob(2:06) 10-J.Herbert pass deep right to 15-J.Guyton for 70 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 1:56JAX +17% win prob1-T.Long kicks 64 yards from LAC 35 to JAX 1. 12-D.Westbrook to JAX 24 for 23 yards (37-T.Campbell; 46-M.Jefferson). FUMBLES (37-T.Campbell), touched at JAX 23, RECOVERED by LAC-35-T.Pope at JAX 19.
3rd · 10:23JAX +10% win prob(10:23) 4-M.Badgley 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-45-C.Mazza, Holder-1-T.Long.
3rd · 0:12LAC +10% win prob(:12) 10-J.Herbert scrambles right end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Justin Herbert's 5-yard rushing touchdown with 0:12 left in the 3rd put Los Angeles Chargers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 1 score that followed.
Lead
1st10:19Michael Badgley·35-yd field goal35-yard field goalholder T.Long · snap C.Mazza+30–3
1st0:10Joe Reed·7-yd TD run7-yard rushing touchdownkick no good, wide left+60–9
3rd0:12Justin Herbert·5-yd TD run5-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+729–36
4th6:30Michael Badgley·35-yd field goal35-yard field goalholder T.Long · snap C.Mazza+329–39
11 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Jaguarscategory by categoryChargers
Jaguars0–7Chargers
298Total yards487
4.8Yards per play6.6
39%Success rate50%
40%Third-down rate46%
2Red-zone touchdowns2
9Explosive plays9
16First downs26
5Sacks taken1
1Turnovers0
The read
Chargers ahead 7–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.38 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.08Jaguars: −0.08 expected points added per play
+0.19Chargers: +0.19 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.07Jaguars: −0.07 expected points added per play
+0.38Chargers: +0.38 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.09Jaguars: −0.09 expected points added per play
−0.16Chargers: −0.16 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Jaguars ran 62 snaps at a 61% dropback rate against Chargers’s 74 at 65%. Red-zone trips: Jaguars 3, Chargers 8.
NoteChargers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.19 expected points added per play vs -0.08.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 7Against their seasonOver Expected
LAC's pass rate over expected, +10.9 pts, is past their previous high of −0.4 pts in week 4 — the highest of their 6 charted games through week 7.
73 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.4 points.
JAX's early-down pass rate turned over: 71.1% in week 6 against 52.5% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
40 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -20 pts to 17 pts
right on their number · −2.8 vs their 13.2%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (−0.38× that swing) · 48 dropbacks
Chargers18.4%
inside their normal wobble · +4.1 vs their 14.3%, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (+0.68× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteLAC's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 10.9 pts, 12.5 points above their season mean of -1.7 pts and 1.7 times their own 7.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Jacksonville Jaguars
47 dressed · 8 inactive · 1 never used
68Andrew NorwellG · Every snap100%63 snaps
75Jawaan TaylorT · Every snap100%63 snaps
74Cam RobinsonT · Every snap100%63 snaps
15Gardner MinshewQB · Every snap100%63 snaps
65Brandon LinderC · Every snap100%63 snaps
30James RobinsonRB · Full-time90%57 snaps
17D.J. CharkWR · Full-time87%55 snaps
84Keelan ColeWR · Heavy rotation76%48 snaps
10Laviska Shenault Jr.WR · Heavy rotation75%47 snaps
80James O'ShaughnessyTE · Heavy rotation70%44 snaps
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Chargers attack right, the Jaguars attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Jaguars←Chargers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
T.Long punt−29% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(13:30) 1-T.Long punt is BLOCKED by 20-D.Thomas, Center-45-C.Mazza, RECOVERED by JAX-20-D.Thomas at LAC 16. 20-D.Thomas for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 13:30 · Chargers · 4th & 1 at LAC 34 · gained nothing · -7.28 EP · −28.8% win probability
175 snaps placed · 9 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 184 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 184 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was LAC moving 80 yards from the LAC 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LAC attacks right, JAX attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
184 of 184 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
184
EPA per play
-0.09
Success rate
40%
Yards
782
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Chargers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR50+0.2060%
Jaguars1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR38-0.3358%
Chargers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11+0.4991%
Jaguars1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR9+1.7889%
Jaguars2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6-0.0950%
Chargers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5-0.1540%
Chargers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Jaguars1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Jaguars2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Chargers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Jaguars1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
184 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
184 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter46 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Jaguars 31
Jaguars0Chargers3
Field goal9 plays, from the Chargers 6 to the Jaguars 17
Punt5 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Jaguars 31
Punt4 plays, from the Chargers 26 to the Chargers 32
Punt5 plays
Jaguars0Chargers9
Touchdown14 plays, from the Chargers 29 to the Jaguars 7
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter49 plays
Punt3 plays, from the Jaguars 30 to the Jaguars 33
Jaguars0Chargers15
Jaguars0Chargers16
Touchdown7 plays, from the Chargers 38 to the Jaguars 22
Jaguars6Chargers16
Jaguars8Chargers16
Touchdown8 plays, from the Jaguars 22 to the Chargers 4
Punt5 plays, from the Chargers 13 to the Chargers 17
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Jaguars 40 to the Chargers 29
Punt4 plays, from the Chargers 31 to the Chargers 36
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back and four receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.1 seconds
Jaguars14Chargers16
Touchdown13 plays, from the Jaguars 33 to the Chargers 9
The period ended4 plays
3rd quarter48 plays
Jaguars20Chargers16
Touchdown5 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Chargers 34
Jaguars21Chargers16
No good9 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Jaguars 29
Turnover on downs4 plays, from the Jaguars 38 to the Jaguars 47
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.2 seconds
Jaguars21Chargers22
Touchdown8 plays, from the Jaguars 47 to the Jaguars 26
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back and four receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.6 seconds
Jaguars27Chargers22
Jaguars29Chargers22
Touchdown9 plays, from the Jaguars 26 to the Chargers 28
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerSevenPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.9 seconds
Jaguars29Chargers28
Jaguars29Chargers29
Touchdown4 plays, from the Chargers 20 to the Chargers 30
Fumble lost1 play
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFour
Jaguars29Chargers35
Jaguars29Chargers36
Touchdown5 plays, from the Jaguars 19 to the Jaguars 3
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter41 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Jaguars 18 to the Chargers 44
Jaguars29Chargers39
Field goal11 plays, from the Chargers 10 to the Jaguars 17
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Jaguars 39
The period ended13 plays, from the Jaguars 39 to the Jaguars 15
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
