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DYNATYZE
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2020 Week 7 · Sun, Oct 25, 2020 · Empower Field at Mile High
Final
ChiefsKansas City43
BY 27final margin
BroncosDenver16
Kansas City Chiefs 43 at Denver Broncos 16. Final.
Chiefs -7 ✓O 46 ✓
The verdict · 2020 Week 7
Kansas City Chiefs 43, Broncos 16 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q2 9:28, 2nd and 13, on Daniel Sorensen — 8.6 win-probability points to the Chiefs on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
18°F
Chiefs closed -7 and covered, winning by 27.
Kansas City Chiefs 43–16 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 9:28, Chiefs +8.6% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 9:28 · 2nd and 13
Daniel Sorensen
Chiefs
(9:28) (Shotgun) 3-D.Lock pass short right intended for 87-N.Fant INTERCEPTED by 49-D.Sorensen [53-A.Hitchens] at 50. 49-D.Sorensen for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
8.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Nick KeizerBroncosQ1 8:02(8:02) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 48-N.Keizer to KC 33 for 14 yards (45-A.Johnson). FUMBLES (45-A.Johnson), RECOVERED by DEN-29-B.Callahan at KC 37.
5.9pts
Mecole HardmanChiefsQ1 4:52(4:52) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right to 17-M.Hardman to DEN 20 for 38 yards (23-M.Ojemudia).
5.6pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Chiefs won this one — 1 giveaway, against Broncos at 4 giveaways.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Broncos owned this one and still lost it — 5 of 14 on third down, against Chiefs at 0 of 7 on third down.
Broncosthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Red zone
Broncos owned this one and still lost it — 2 touchdowns on 2 trips, against Chiefs at 3 touchdowns on 7 trips.
Broncosthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Every snap
Chiefs won this one — +0.06 expected points per snap, against Broncos at -0.25 expected points per snap.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 10.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 32 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Broncos.
MarketModelmodel higher on Broncoshigher on Chiefs162 of 169 plays carry both curves
(9:28) (Shotgun) 3-D.Lock pass short right intended for 87-N.Fant INTERCEPTED by 49-D.Sorensen [53-A.Hitchens] at 50. 49-D.Sorensen for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −8.6 for BroncosExpected points −8.48 for BroncosThe model had Broncos 22 points higher than the market did.play 56
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 9:28KC +9% win prob(9:28) (Shotgun) 3-D.Lock pass short right intended for 87-N.Fant INTERCEPTED by 49-D.Sorensen [53-A.Hitchens] at 50. 49-D.Sorensen for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 8:02KC +6% win prob(8:02) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 48-N.Keizer to KC 33 for 14 yards (45-A.Johnson). FUMBLES (45-A.Johnson), RECOVERED by DEN-29-B.Callahan at KC 37.
1st · 4:52DEN +6% win prob(4:52) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right to 17-M.Hardman to DEN 20 for 38 yards (23-M.Ojemudia).
2nd · 14:58KC +5% win prob(14:58) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes sacked at KC 42 for -8 yards (93-D.Jones).
1st · 2:51KC +5% win prob(2:51) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes sacked at DEN 22 for -8 yards (55-B.Chubb).
2nd · 14:21DEN +4% win prob(14:21) 5-T.Townsend punts 57 yards to DEN 1, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-13-B.Pringle.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Clyde Edwards-Helaire's 11-yard rushing touchdown with 9:15 left in the 1st put Kansas City Chiefs ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 10 scores that followed.
Lead
1st9:15Clyde Edwards-Helaire·11-yd TD run11-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+77–0
1st6:09Drew Lock·2-yd TD run2-yard rushing touchdownkick no good, wide left+67–6
1st2:09Harrison Butker·40-yd field goal40-yard field goalholder T.Townsend · snap J.Winchester+310–6
4th3:02Chad Henne·1-yd TD run1-yard rushing touchdownkick no good, hit left upright+643–16
11 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Chiefscategory by categoryBroncos
Chiefs4–5Broncos
289Total yards411
6.0Yards per play5.4
46%Success rate45%
0%Third-down rate36%
3Red-zone touchdowns2
7Explosive plays9
17First downs23
4Sacks taken3
1Turnovers4
The read
Broncos ahead 5–4 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — third-down rate.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.42 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.06Chiefs: +0.06 expected points added per play
−0.25Broncos: −0.25 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.01Chiefs: −0.01 expected points added per play
−0.42Broncos: −0.42 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.17Chiefs: +0.17 expected points added per play
−0.02Broncos: −0.02 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Chiefs ran 48 snaps at a 60% dropback rate against Broncos’s 76 at 58%. Red-zone trips: Chiefs 7, Broncos 2.
NoteBroncos outgained Chiefs 411-289 but lost the turnover battle 4-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -37 pts to 31 pts
right on their number · −2.0 vs their 15.6%, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (−0.36× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
Broncos24.1%
leaned — got home · +9.2 vs their 14.9%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (+1.41× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteDEN's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 24.1%, 9.2 points above their season mean of 14.9% and 1.4 times their own 6.5-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Kansas City Chiefs
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
73Nick AllegrettiG · Every snap100%51 snaps
77Andrew WylieOT · Every snap100%51 snaps
75Mike RemmersT · Every snap100%51 snaps
72Eric FisherT · Every snap100%51 snaps
15Patrick MahomesQB · Full-time80%41 snaps
67Daniel KilgoreC · Full-time80%41 snaps
87Travis KelceTE · Heavy rotation78%40 snaps
10Tyreek HillWR · Heavy rotation73%37 snaps
11Demarcus RobinsonWR · Heavy rotation67%34 snaps
13Byron PringleWR · Heavy rotation61%31 snaps
25Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB · Heavy rotation53%27 snaps
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Broncos attack right, the Chiefs attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Chiefs←Broncos→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Lock pass−17% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(9:28) (Shotgun) 3-D.Lock pass short right intended for 87-N.Fant INTERCEPTED by 49-D.Sorensen [53-A.Hitchens] at 50. 49-D.Sorensen for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 9:28 · Broncos · 2nd & 13 at DEN 46 · gained nothing · -8.48 EP · −16.9% win probability
161 snaps placed · 8 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 169 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 169 snaps. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was DEN moving 75 yards from the DEN 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DEN attacks right, KC attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
169 of 169 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
169
EPA per play
-0.04
Success rate
43%
Yards
697
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Chiefs1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR37+0.2657%
Broncos1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR36-0.2369%
Broncos1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR25-0.2244%
Chiefs1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8-0.9175%
Broncos1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR6-1.0050%
Broncos2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR5+0.0920%
Broncos2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Chiefs1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Chiefs2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
169 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
169 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter44 plays
Punt6 plays
Chiefs6Broncos0
Chiefs7Broncos0
Touchdown9 plays, from the Chiefs 32 to the Broncos 11
Punt5 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Broncos 31
Fumble lost1 play
Chiefs7Broncos6
Touchdown6 plays, from the Chiefs 37 to the Chiefs 2
Chiefs10Broncos6
Field goal8 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Broncos 14
Fumble lost6 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Broncos 39
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter46 plays
Punt3 plays
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.0 seconds
Chiefs16Broncos6
Touchdown9 plays, from the Broncos 1 to the Broncos 49
Chiefs17Broncos6
Chiefs17Broncos9
Field goal8 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Chiefs 25
Chiefs23Broncos9
Chiefs24Broncos9
Touchdown2 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Broncos 32
Punt5 plays, from the Chiefs 24 to the Broncos 44
The period ended13 plays, from the Broncos 15 to the Chiefs 40
3rd quarter38 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Chiefs 31
Fumble lost4 plays, from the Broncos 22 to the Broncos 43
Chiefs27Broncos9
Field goal4 plays, from the Broncos 14 to the Broncos 13
Turnover on downs11 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Chiefs 45
Chiefs30Broncos9
Field goal8 plays, from the Chiefs 42 to the Broncos 8
The period ended6 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Chiefs 39
4th quarter41 plays
Intercepted1 play
Chiefs36Broncos9
Chiefs37Broncos9
Touchdown7 plays, from the Chiefs 43 to the Broncos 10
Chiefs37Broncos15
Chiefs37Broncos16
Touchdown11 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Chiefs 3
Chiefs43Broncos16
Touchdown9 plays, from the Broncos 21 to the Broncos 1
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Chiefs 49
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Chiefscategory by categoryBroncos
Chiefs6
Broncos0
