2020 Week 7 · Sun, Oct 25, 2020 · Empower Field at Mile High

Kansas City ChiefsWinner

Denver Broncos

KC -7 ✓O 46 ✓14°FChiefs closed -7 and covered, winning by 27.

Kansas City Chiefs 43–16 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 9:28, KC +9% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 9:28KC — DEN DEN ball · 2nd & 13KC 84%

(9:28) (Shotgun) 3-D.Lock pass short right intended for 87-N.Fant INTERCEPTED by 49-D.Sorensen [53-A.Hitchens] at 50. 49-D.Sorensen for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 9:28KC +9% win prob(9:28) (Shotgun) 3-D.Lock pass short right intended for 87-N.Fant INTERCEPTED by 49-D.Sorensen [53-A.Hitchens] at 50. 49-D.Sorensen for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 8:02KC +6% win prob(8:02) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 48-N.Keizer to KC 33 for 14 yards (45-A.Johnson). FUMBLES (45-A.Johnson), RECOVERED by DEN-29-B.Callahan at KC 37.
Q1 · 4:52DEN +6% win prob(4:52) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right to 17-M.Hardman to DEN 20 for 38 yards (23-M.Ojemudia).
Q2 · 14:58KC +5% win prob(14:58) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes sacked at KC 42 for -8 yards (93-D.Jones).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Chiefs	Broncos
Offensive plays	48	76
Total yards	289	411 (edge)
Yards per play	6.0 (edge)	5.4
Expected points added / play	0.06 (edge)	-0.25
Success rate	46% (edge)	45%
Dropback rate	60%	58%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.01 (edge)	-0.42
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.17 (edge)	-0.02
Third downs	0/7	5/14 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	7	9 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	17	23 (edge)
Sacks taken	4	3 (edge)
Turnovers	1 (edge)	4

Broncos outgained Chiefs 411–289 but lost the turnover battle 4–1. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · DEN

Drew LockQB

24/40, 254 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT

-16.4 expected points added · -6.0% completion over expected

Passing · KC

Patrick MahomesQB

15/23, 200 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

2.8 expected points added · +5.3% completion over expected

Rushing · DEN

Phillip LindsayRB

9 att, 79 yds, 0 TD

3.1 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · DEN

Melvin GordonRB

17 att, 68 yds, 1 TD

-5.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · DEN

Albert OkwuegbunamTE

7/7 for 60 yds, 0 TD

18% of team targets · 3.0 expected points added

Receiving · KC

Tyreek HillWR

6/10 for 55 yds, 1 TD

42% of team targets · 0.9 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	DEN	DEN 25	5	2	1:50	Punt
2	KC	KC 32	9	68	4:02	Touchdown
3	DEN	DEN 25	5	6	1:06	Punt
4	KC	KC 19	1	14	0:12	Fumble
5	DEN	KC 37	5	37	1:46	Touchdown
6	KC	KC 25	8	53	4:00	Turnover on downs
7	DEN	DEN 25	5	26	2:01	Fumble
8	KC	50	4	-8	0:51	Punt
9	DEN	DEN 1	9	45	4:54	Defensive touchdown
10	DEN	DEN 25	8	50	3:29	Turnover on downs
11	KC	—	2	0	0:14	Defensive touchdown
12	DEN	DEN 25	5	7	1:29	Punt
13	KC	KC 24	5	32	1:43	Punt
14	DEN	DEN 15	9	57	2:23	End of half
15	KC	KC 25	5	6	1:37	Punt
16	DEN	DEN 22	4	21	1:59	Fumble
17	KC	DEN 14	4	1	1:03	Turnover on downs
18	DEN	DEN 25	10	38	4:32	Turnover on downs
19	KC	KC 42	8	50	3:49	Turnover on downs
20	DEN	DEN 25	6	21	2:12	Interception
21	KC	KC 43	7	57	3:33	Touchdown
22	DEN	DEN 25	11	75	4:21	Touchdown
23	KC	DEN 21	9	16	3:56	Touchdown
24	DEN	DEN 25	9	26	1:22	Turnover on downs
25	KC	KC 49	3	0	1:36	End of game

0 of 25 drives ended in points. Longest march: Broncos gained 75 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Kansas City Chiefs

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Patrick Mahomes	15/23	200	1	0	3	2.8
Chad Henne	2/2	13	0	0	1	2.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	8	46	5.8	1	1.4
Le'Veon Bell	6	39	6.5	0	0.6
Mecole Hardman	1	13	13.0	0	0.8
DeAndre Washington	3	5	1.7	0	-0.5
Chad Henne	4	-2	-0.5	1	0.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Mecole Hardman	2	2	57	0	8%	4.5
Tyreek Hill	6	10	55	1	42%	0.9
Nick Keizer	2	2	36	0	8%	-2.9
Travis Kelce	3	3	31	0	13%	1.8
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	1	4	17	0	17%	-0.6
Marcus Kemp	1	1	11	0	4%	1.0
Demarcus Robinson	1	1	4	0	4%	-0.1
DeAndre Washington	1	1	2	0	4%	2.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Daniel Sorensen	7	2	0.0	1	1
Charvarius Ward	6	2	1.0	0	0
Damien Wilson	6	2	0.0	0	0
Tyrann Mathieu	5	0	0.0	1	1
Willie Gay	3	1	0.0	0	2
Anthony Hitchens	3	1	0.0	0	0
Demone Harris	1	2	0.0	0	0
Bashaud Breeland	2	1	0.0	0	0
Chris Jones	1	2	1.0	0	0
Tanoh Kpassagnon	2	0	1.0	0	0

Denver Broncos

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Drew Lock	24/40	254	0	2	3	-16.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Phillip Lindsay	9	79	8.8	0	3.1
Melvin Gordon	17	68	4.0	1	-5.7
Royce Freeman	3	12	4.0	0	-0.2
K.J. Hamler	1	10	10.0	0	0.6
Drew Lock	3	8	2.7	1	1.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Albert Okwuegbunam	7	7	60	18%	3.0
Tim Patrick	3	4	44	11%	2.0
Noah Fant	3	7	38	18%	-9.3
DaeSean Hamilton	2	3	26	8%	1.3
Nick Vannett	2	3	25	8%	0.7
K.J. Hamler	2	3	24	8%	-7.1
Jerry Jeudy	2	4	20	11%	2.3
Melvin Gordon	2	4	12	11%	-5.4
Royce Freeman	1	2	5	5%	-1.0
Tyrie Cleveland	0	1	0	3%	-0.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks
Alexander Johnson	5	4	0.0
Malik Reed	4	1	2.0
Bryce Callahan	4	1	0.0
Justin Simmons	3	1	0.0
Josey Jewell	2	1	0.0
A.J. Bouye	3	0	0.0
DeMarcus Walker	1	1	0.0
Bradley Chubb	1	1	1.0
Dre'Mont Jones	2	0	1.0
Michael Ojemudia	2	0	0.0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: KC -7
Closing total: 46
KC moneyline: -302
DEN moneyline: +260

Chiefs closed -7 and covered, winning by 27.

Total closed 46; the game landed 59 — over by 13.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Empower Field at Mile High
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 14°F, wind 11 mph
Referee: Brad Rogers
Rest: KC 6 days · DEN 7 days
Coaches: Andy Reid vs Vic Fangio

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.