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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:22 AM ET · 16 to play
2020 Week 7 · Thu, Oct 22, 2020 · Lincoln Financial Field
Final
GiantsNew York21
BY 1final margin
EaglesPhiladelphia22
New York Giants 21 at Philadelphia Eagles 22. Final.
Eagles -5 no coverU 44.5 ✓
The verdict · 2020 Week 7
Philadelphia Eagles 22, Giants 21 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 0:29, 2nd and 12, on Daniel Jones — 19.3 win-probability points to the Eagles on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:29 · 2nd and 12
Daniel Jones
Eagles
(:29) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones sacked at NYG 17 for -6 yards (55-B.Graham). FUMBLES (55-B.Graham) [55-B.Graham], RECOVERED by PHI-75-V.Curry at NYG 17.
Eagles closed -5, won by 1 — but didn't cover.
Philadelphia Eagles 22–21 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:29, Eagles +19.3% win probability on one snap.
19.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Daniel JonesGiantsQ3 8:51(8:51) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones right end to PHI 8 for 80 yards (21-J.Mills).
16.7pts
Carson WentzGiantsQ4 14:11(14:11) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass incomplete short right to 89-H.Butler (23-L.Ryan). PHI-65-L.Johnson was injured during the play.
17.7pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Eagles won this one — 1 giveaway, against Giants at 3 giveaways.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Giants owned this one and still lost it — 2 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Eagles at 3 touchdowns on 8 trips.
Giantsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Giants owned this one and still lost it — +0.04 expected points per carry, against Eagles at -0.18 expected points per carry.
Giantsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Eagles won this one — 45% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Giants at 39% of snaps stayed on schedule.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 7.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 17 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Giants.
MarketModelmodel higher on Eagleshigher on Giants170 of 182 plays carry both curves
(:29) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones sacked at NYG 17 for -6 yards (55-B.Graham). FUMBLES (55-B.Graham) [55-B.Graham], RECOVERED by PHI-75-V.Curry at NYG 17.
Swing +19.3 for EaglesExpected points +3.01 for EaglesThe model had Giants 8 points higher than the market did.play 180
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:29NYG +19% win prob(:29) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones sacked at NYG 17 for -6 yards (55-B.Graham). FUMBLES (55-B.Graham) [55-B.Graham], RECOVERED by PHI-75-V.Curry at NYG 17.
4th · 14:11NYG +18% win prob(14:11) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass incomplete short right to 89-H.Butler (23-L.Ryan). PHI-65-L.Johnson was injured during the play.
3rd · 8:51PHI +17% win prob(8:51) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones right end to PHI 8 for 80 yards (21-J.Mills).
4th · 0:46PHI +16% win prob(:46) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass deep right to 35-B.Scott for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 1:55PHI +14% win prob(1:55) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass deep right to 85-R.Rodgers to NYG 30 for 30 yards (23-L.Ryan).
4th · 0:51NYG +13% win prob(:51) 30-C.Clement left guard to NYG 3 for no gain (97-D.Lawrence). PENALTY on PHI-62-J.Kelce, Face Mask (15 Yards), 15 yards, enforced at NYG 3 - No Play.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Boston Scott's 18-yard touchdown catch with 0:46 left in the 4th put Philadelphia Eagles ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
4th0:46Boston Scott·18-yd TD catch18-yard touchdown catchfrom Carson Wentzfrom Carson Wentz · two-point no goodLead never changed again+621–22
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Giantscategory by categoryEagles
Giants1–7Eagles
326Total yards443
6.0Yards per play6.1
39%Success rate45%
30%Third-down rate31%
2Red-zone touchdowns3
7Explosive plays6
14First downs26
3Sacks taken3
3Turnovers1
The read
Eagles ahead 7–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.05Giants: −0.05 expected points added per play
+0.04Eagles: +0.04 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.11Giants: −0.11 expected points added per play
+0.14Eagles: +0.14 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.04Giants: +0.04 expected points added per play
−0.18Eagles: −0.18 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Giants ran 54 snaps at a 63% dropback rate against Eagles’s 73 at 67%. Red-zone trips: Giants 3, Eagles 8.
NoteEagles won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.04 expected points added per play vs -0.05.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
NYG's pass rate over expected turned over: −8.6 pts in week 6 against +3.6 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
54 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.0 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -16 pts to 14 pts
inside their normal wobble · +4.6 vs their 15.8%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (+0.72× that swing) · 49 dropbacks
Eagles23.5%
inside their normal wobble · +5.7 vs their 17.8%, and they swing ±8.1 week to week (+0.71× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNYG's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 0.0%, 30.7 points below their season mean of 30.7% and 1.5 times their own 19.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Eagles attack right, the Giants attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Giants←Eagles→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Jones sacked−25% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:29) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones sacked at NYG 17 for -6 yards (55-B.Graham). FUMBLES (55-B.Graham) [55-B.Graham], RECOVERED by PHI-75-V.Curry at NYG 17.
Q4 0:29 · Giants · 2nd & 12 at NYG 23 · lost 6 · -3.01 EP · −24.5% win probability
168 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 182 plays across 26 drives, personnel groupings on 182 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 26 drives ended in points. The longest march was NYG moving 97 yards from the NYG 3 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; PHI attacks right, NYG attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
182 of 182 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
182
EPA per play
-0.02
Success rate
42%
Yards
767
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Eagles1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR55+0.0164%
Giants1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR25+0.2344%
Giants1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR24-0.2279%
Eagles1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR9+0.6856%
Eagles1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Eagles1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Giants1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Eagles1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Giants0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
Giants2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Giants1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
182 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
182 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter42 plays
Giants0Eagles6
Giants0Eagles7
Touchdown15 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Giants 1
Punt8 plays, from the Giants 27 to the Giants 46
Punt4 plays, from the Eagles 11 to the Eagles 12
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
Giants6Eagles7
Giants7Eagles7
Touchdown2 plays
The period ended12 plays, from the Eagles 30 to the Giants 30
2nd quarter47 plays
Giants7Eagles10
Field goal5 plays, from the Giants 30 to the Giants 13
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldTwo tight ends and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.2 seconds
Intercepted9 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Eagles 47
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw5.9 seconds
Intercepted11 plays, from the Eagles 44 to the Giants 15
Punt5 plays, from the Giants 20 to the Eagles 49
Punt5 plays, from the Eagles 9 to the Eagles 13
Offense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Fumble lost2 plays
No good8 plays, from the Giants 42 to the Giants 11
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter39 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Giants 26 to the Giants 33
Punt4 plays, from the Eagles 22 to the Eagles 31
Punt4 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Eagles 32 to the Eagles 34
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Giants13Eagles10
Giants14Eagles10
Touchdown6 plays, from the Giants 12 to the Eagles 1
Punt5 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Eagles 26
Punt4 plays, from the Giants 27 to the Giants 32
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.0 seconds
The period ended7 plays, from the Eagles 31 to the Giants 7
4th quarter54 plays
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.4 seconds
Turnover on downs2 plays, from the Giants 7 to the Giants 3
Giants20Eagles10
Giants21Eagles10
Touchdown17 plays, from the Giants 3 to the Eagles 2
Giants21Eagles16
Touchdown9 plays, from the Eagles 22 to the Giants 3
Punt8 plays, from the Giants 20 to the Giants 47
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, three linebackers and seven backsRoute runWheelCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.8 seconds
Giants21Eagles22
Touchdown12 plays, from the Eagles 29 to the Giants 3
Offense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFour
Fumble lost4 plays
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Eagles -5
Closing total
44.5
Giants moneyline
+197
Eagles moneyline
-223
Eagles closed -5, won by 1 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 44.5; the game landed 43 — under by 1.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Lincoln Financial Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Mild, 66°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 5 mph out of the east; mainly clear.
Referee
Adrian Hill
Rest
Giants 4 days · Eagles 4 days
Coaches
Joe Judge vs Doug Pederson
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
3rd · 1:49
PHI +12% win prob
(1:49) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass deep right to 13-T.Fulgham pushed ob at NYG 9 for 40 yards (37-R.Lewis).
4th · 0:57PHI +12% win prob(:57) 11-C.Wentz pass incomplete short left to 82-J.Hightower. PENALTY on NYG-23-L.Ryan, Defensive Holding, 2 yards, enforced at NYG 5 - No Play.
