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Pittsburgh Steelers 27 at Tennessee Titans 24. Final.
Titans -1 upset51 push
The verdict · 2020 Week 7
Pittsburgh Steelers 27, Titans 24 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 1:05, 3rd and 12, on A.J. Brown — 24.1 win-probability points to the Titans on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 1:05 · 3rd and 12
A.J. Brown
Titans
(1:05) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep right to 11-A.Brown pushed ob at PIT 25 for 21 yards (34-Te.Edmunds).
Titans closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Pittsburgh Steelers 27–24 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 1:05, Titans +24.1% win probability on one snap.
24.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Amani HookerTitansQ4 2:40(2:40) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass deep middle intended for 19-J.Smith-Schuster INTERCEPTED by 37-A.Hooker (55-J.Brown) at TEN -9. Touchback.
18.5pts
Stephen GostkowskiSteelersQ4 0:19(:19) 3-S.Gostkowski 45 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.
18.8pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Titans owned this one and still lost it — no giveaways, against Steelers at 3 giveaways.
Titansthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
Steelers won this one — 13 of 18 on third down, against Titans at 5 of 13 on third down.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Steelers won this one — 51% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Titans at 38% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Steelers won this one — +0.12 expected points per carry, against Titans at -0.11 expected points per carry.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 1.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 8 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Titans.
MarketModelmodel higher on Titanshigher on Steelers169 of 179 plays carry both curves
(1:05) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep right to 11-A.Brown pushed ob at PIT 25 for 21 yards (34-Te.Edmunds).
Swing +24.1 for TitansExpected points +2.15 for TitansThe model had Titans 2 points higher than the market did.play 173
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 1:05TEN +24% win prob(1:05) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep right to 11-A.Brown pushed ob at PIT 25 for 21 yards (34-Te.Edmunds).
4th · 0:19PIT +19% win prob(:19) 3-S.Gostkowski 45 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.
4th · 2:40PIT +19% win prob(2:40) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass deep middle intended for 19-J.Smith-Schuster INTERCEPTED by 37-A.Hooker (55-J.Brown) at TEN -9. Touchback.
4th · 1:00PIT +17% win prob(1:00) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass incomplete short right [91-S.Tuitt]. PENALTY on TEN-17-R.Tannehill, Intentional Grounding, 10 yards, enforced at PIT 25.
4th · 2:00PIT +14% win prob(2:00) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short right to 22-D.Henry to TEN 49 for -1 yards (23-J.Haden).
4th · 0:24PIT +14% win prob(:24) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass incomplete deep right to 84-C.Davis.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Diontae Johnson's 11-yard touchdown catch with 5:45 left in the 1st put Pittsburgh Steelers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
Lead
1st5:45Diontae Johnson·11-yd TD catch11-yard touchdown catchfrom Ben Roethlisbergerfrom Ben RoethlisbergerLead never changed again+77–0
Steelers ahead 6–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.12Steelers: +0.12 expected points added per play
+0.04Titans: +0.04 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.12Steelers: +0.12 expected points added per play
+0.14Titans: +0.14 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.12Steelers: +0.12 expected points added per play
−0.11Titans: −0.11 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Steelers ran 73 snaps at a 67% dropback rate against Titans’s 56 at 61%. Red-zone trips: Steelers 6, Titans 3.
NoteSteelers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.12 expected points added per play vs 0.04.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
PIT's early-down pass rate turned over: 37.2% in week 6 against 61.8% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
55 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.0 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -26 pts to 33 pts
right on their number · −2.5 vs their 23.1%, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (−0.33× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Titans10.2%
right on their number · −0.4 vs their 10.6%, and they swing ±7.9 week to week (−0.05× that swing) · 49 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNothing either side did tonight left its own normal range. The widest departure was TEN's early-down pass rate, 52.4% against a season mean of 45.9% — and TEN swings 10.4 points week to week, so that is a Sunday, not a plan.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Pittsburgh Steelers
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
71Matt FeilerT · Every snap100%79 snaps
78Alejandro VillanuevaT · Every snap100%79 snaps
53Maurkice PounceyC · Every snap100%79 snaps
7Ben RoethlisbergerQB · Every snap100%79 snaps
66David DeCastroG · Every snap100%79 snaps
76Chukwuma OkoraforT · Every snap99%78 snaps
30James ConnerRB · Full-time84%66 snaps
85Eric EbronTE · Full-time84%66 snaps
19JuJu Smith-SchusterWR · Full-time82%65 snaps
18Diontae JohnsonWR · Heavy rotation75%59 snaps
11Chase ClaypoolWR · Heavy rotation65%51 snaps
89Vance McDonaldTE · Rotational44%35 snaps
13James WashingtonWR · Situational23%18 snaps
38Jaylen SamuelsRB · Situational11%9 snaps
14Ray-Ray McCloudWR · Situational10%8 snaps
24Benny SnellRB · Situational8%6 snaps
26Anthony McFarlandRB · Situational6%5 snaps
65Jerald HawkinsT · Situational6%5 snaps
39Minkah FitzpatrickS · Situational1%1 snap
99Henry MondeauxDT · Situational1%1 snap
33Trey EdmundsRB · Situational1%1 snap
Inactive · 7
Mike HiltonCBIsaiah BuggsDECarlos DavisDTDerek WattFBJoshua DobbsQBDerwin GrayTZach GentryTE
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Jay ElliottLBMason RudolphQB
Tennessee Titans
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 3 never used
64Nate DavisG · Every snap100%57 snaps
70Ty SambrailoT · Every snap100%57 snaps
76Rodger SaffoldG · Every snap100%57 snaps
71Dennis KellyOT · Every snap100%57 snaps
60Ben JonesC · Every snap100%57 snaps
17Ryan TannehillQB · Every snap100%57 snaps
11A.J. BrownWR · Full-time93%53 snaps
84Corey DavisWR · Full-time91%52 snaps
22Derrick HenryRB · Heavy rotation74%42 snaps
81Jonnu SmithTE · Heavy rotation70%40 snaps
10Adam HumphriesWR · Heavy rotation54%31 snaps
85MyCole PruittTE · Rotational26%15 snaps
86Anthony FirkserTE · Rotational26%15 snaps
28Jeremy McNicholsRB · Rotational26%15 snaps
87Geoff SwaimTE · Situational18%10 snaps
41Khari BlasingameRB · Situational14%8 snaps
15Nick WestbrookWR · Situational4%2 snaps
14Kalif RaymondWR · Situational2%1 snap
62Aaron BrewerC · Situational2%1 snap
Inactive · 6
Daniel MunyerCJoshua KaluDBMatt DickersonDEDavid LongLBDerick RobersonOLBIsaiah WilsonOT
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Titans attack right, the Steelers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Steelers←Titans→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
R.Tannehill pass+25% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(1:05) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep right to 11-A.Brown pushed ob at PIT 25 for 21 yards (34-Te.Edmunds).
Q4 1:05 · Titans · 3rd & 12 at PIT 46 · gained 21 · +2.15 EP · +25.1% win probability
167 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 179 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 179 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was PIT moving 75 yards from the PIT 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; TEN attacks right, PIT attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
179 of 179 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
179
EPA per play
+0.03
Success rate
43%
Yards
654
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Steelers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR54+0.0376%
Titans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR30+0.0380%
Titans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR13+0.0646%
Steelers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10+0.5160%
Titans2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR7+0.1429%
Steelers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR5-0.0940%
Titans1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Steelers1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Steelers1 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Titans1 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Titans2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
179 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
179 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter35 plays
Steelers6Titans0
Steelers7Titans0
Touchdown21 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Titans 1
Punt6 plays
The period ended7 plays, from the Steelers 39 to the Titans 34
2nd quarter52 plays
Steelers13Titans0
Steelers14Titans0
Touchdown8 plays, from the Titans 31 to the Titans 1
Steelers14Titans6
Steelers14Titans7
Touchdown15 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Steelers 4
Steelers17Titans7
Field goal9 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Titans 20
Punt6 plays, from the Titans 10 to the Titans 15
Steelers23Titans7
Steelers24Titans7
Touchdown4 plays, from the Titans 17 to the Titans 9
The period ended7 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Titans 32
Intercepted2 plays
3rd quarter44 plays
Punt5 plays
Steelers27Titans7
Field goal9 plays, from the Steelers 34 to the Titans 9
Steelers27Titans13
Steelers27Titans14
Touchdown4 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Titans 27
Punt5 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Steelers 32
Punt4 plays, from the Titans 19 to the Titans 25
Intercepted4 plays, from the Steelers 16 to the Steelers 30
Steelers27Titans17
Field goal4 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Steelers 39
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter48 plays
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Steelers27Titans23
Steelers27Titans24
Touchdown14 plays, from the Titans 33 to the Steelers 1
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Intercepted19 plays, from the Steelers 9 to the Titans 9
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runOutCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.9 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
No good13 plays, from the Titans 20 to the Steelers 25
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Titans -1
Closing total
51
Steelers moneyline
+103
Titans moneyline
-114
Titans closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 51 and landed exactly there — a push.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Nissan Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Mild, 61°F at kickoff; still at 2 mph out of the north-west; mainly clear.
Referee
Shawn Hochuli
Rest
Steelers 7 days · Titans 7 days
Coaches
Mike Tomlin vs Mike Vrabel
4th · 10:19
TEN +10% win prob
(10:19) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass incomplete short left to 84-C.Davis. PENALTY on PIT-39-M.Fitzpatrick, Defensive Holding, 0 yards, enforced at PIT 1 - No Play.
3rd · 3:49PIT +9% win prob(3:49) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short left intended for 18-D.Johnson INTERCEPTED by 55-J.Brown (98-J.Simmons) at PIT 30. 55-J.Brown to PIT 30 for no gain (71-M.Feiler).
