2020 Week 7 · Sun, Oct 25, 2020 · Nissan Stadium

Pittsburgh SteelersWinner

Tennessee Titans

TEN -1 upset51 pushTitans closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Pittsburgh Steelers 27–24 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 1:05, TEN +24% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 1:05PIT — TEN TEN ball · 3rd & 12PIT 71%

(1:05) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep right to 11-A.Brown pushed ob at PIT 25 for 21 yards (34-Te.Edmunds).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 1:05TEN +24% win prob(1:05) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep right to 11-A.Brown pushed ob at PIT 25 for 21 yards (34-Te.Edmunds).
Q4 · 0:19PIT +19% win prob(:19) 3-S.Gostkowski 45 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.
Q4 · 2:40PIT +19% win prob(2:40) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass deep middle intended for 19-J.Smith-Schuster INTERCEPTED by 37-A.Hooker (55-J.Brown) at TEN -9. Touchback.
Q4 · 1:00PIT +17% win prob(1:00) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass incomplete short right [91-S.Tuitt]. PENALTY on TEN-17-R.Tannehill, Intentional Grounding, 10 yards, enforced at PIT 25.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Steelers	Titans
Offensive plays	73	56
Total yards	363 (edge)	292
Yards per play	5.0	5.2 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.12 (edge)	0.04
Success rate	51% (edge)	38%
Dropback rate	67%	61%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.12	0.14 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.12 (edge)	-0.11
Third downs	13/18 (edge)	5/13
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	4	5 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	21 (edge)	13
Sacks taken	0 (edge)	2
Turnovers	3	0 (edge)

Steelers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.12 expected points added per play vs 0.04.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · PIT

Ben RoethlisbergerQB

32/49, 268 yds, 2 TD, 3 INT

6.1 expected points added · -1.7% completion over expected

Passing · TEN

Ryan TannehillQB

18/30, 220 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

6.8 expected points added · -3.5% completion over expected

Rushing · PIT

James ConnerRB

20 att, 82 yds, 0 TD

0.5 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · TEN

Derrick HenryRB

20 att, 75 yds, 1 TD

-2.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · TEN

A.J. BrownWR

6/8 for 153 yds, 1 TD

27% of team targets · 12.0 expected points added

Receiving · PIT

JuJu Smith-SchusterWR

9/14 for 85 yds, 0 TD

29% of team targets · 0.9 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	PIT	PIT 25	18	100	9:18	Touchdown
2	TEN	TEN 15	5	1	1:21	Punt
3	PIT	PIT 39	14	61	7:05	Touchdown
4	TEN	TEN 25	14	70	6:50	Touchdown
5	PIT	PIT 25	8	50	2:36	Turnover on downs
6	TEN	TEN 10	5	5	1:15	Punt
7	PIT	TEN 17	4	17	0:43	Touchdown
8	TEN	TEN 25	5	7	0:38	Turnover on downs
9	PIT	TEN 32	1	0	0:14	Interception
10	TEN	TEN 26	5	-6	1:41	Punt
11	PIT	PIT 34	7	18	2:53	Turnover on downs
12	TEN	TEN 25	4	75	0:50	Touchdown
13	PIT	PIT 25	5	7	1:34	Punt
14	TEN	TEN 19	4	6	2:13	Punt
15	PIT	PIT 16	4	14	2:05	Interception
16	TEN	PIT 30	4	-3	0:49	Turnover on downs
17	PIT	PIT 25	7	14	2:17	Punt
18	TEN	TEN 30	13	70	5:25	Touchdown
19	PIT	PIT 9	17	82	7:38	Interception
20	TEN	TEN 20	12	67	2:21	Turnover on downs
21	PIT	PIT 35	1	0	0:14	End of game

0 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Steelers gained 100 scrimmage yards over 18 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Pittsburgh Steelers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Ben Roethlisberger	32/49	268	2	3	0	6.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
James Conner	20	82	4.1	0	0.5
Anthony McFarland	1	6	6.0	0	0.3
Jaylen Samuels	1	5	5.0	0	0.1
Benny Snell	2	2	1.0	1	1.9
Ben Roethlisberger	1	-1	-1.0	0	0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
JuJu Smith-Schuster	9	14	85	0	29%	0.9
Diontae Johnson	9	15	80	2	31%	3.6
Eric Ebron	6	8	50	0	16%	2.6
James Conner	3	5	29	0	10%	0.7
Vance McDonald	2	2	14	0	4%	0.3
Ray-Ray McCloud	2	2	12	0	4%	0.3
Anthony McFarland	0	1	0	0	2%	-0.6
James Washington	0	1	0	0	2%	-0.5
Chase Claypool	1	1	-2	0	2%	-1.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Vince Williams	7	2	1.0	0
Joe Haden	4	3	0.0	1
T.J. Watt	4	1	1.0	1
Minkah Fitzpatrick	3	2	0.0	0
Cameron Sutton	4	0	0.0	2
Steven Nelson	2	1	0.0	0
Alex Highsmith	2	1	0.0	0
Tyson Alualu	1	1	0.0	0
Robert Spillane	1	1	0.0	0
Terrell Edmunds	2	0	0.0	2

Tennessee Titans

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Ryan Tannehill	18/30	220	2	0	2	6.8
Brett Kern	0/1	0	0	0	0	-1.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Derrick Henry	20	75	3.8	1	-2.4
Ryan Tannehill	2	5	2.5	0	0.2
Jeremy McNichols	1	2	2.0	0	-0.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
A.J. Brown	6	8	153	1	27%	12.0
Corey Davis	6	10	35	1	33%	1.3
Adam Humphries	1	3	19	0	10%	1.1
Jonnu Smith	1	4	9	0	13%	-1.3
Anthony Firkser	2	2	7	0	7%	-1.0
Geoff Swaim	0	1	0	0	3%	-1.9
Derrick Henry	2	2	-3	0	7%	-1.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Malcolm Butler	7	1	0	0
Jayon Brown	6	1	1	4
Rashaan Evans	2	3	0	1
Jadeveon Clowney	3	1	0	1
Kevin Byard	4	0	0	0
Kenny Vaccaro	3	0	0	0
DaQuan Jones	1	2	0	0
Tye Smith	2	1	0	0
Harold Landry	3	0	0	0
Jeffery Simmons	1	2	0	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: TEN -1
Closing total: 51
PIT moneyline: +103
TEN moneyline: -114

Titans closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 51 and landed exactly there — a push.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Nissan Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 55°F, wind 3 mph
Referee: Shawn Hochuli
Rest: PIT 7 days · TEN 7 days
Coaches: Mike Tomlin vs Mike Vrabel