2020 Week 7 · Sun, Oct 25, 2020 · State Farm Stadium

Seattle Seahawks

Arizona CardinalsWinner

SEA -3.5 upsetO 55.5 ✓DomeSeahawks closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Arizona Cardinals 37–34 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: OT 4:58, ARI +30% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

OT · 4:58SEA — ARI ARI ball · 2nd & 3SEA 51%

(4:58) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 29-C.Edmonds up the middle pushed ob at SEA 33 for 32 yards (37-Q.Diggs).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

OT · 4:58ARI +30% win prob(4:58) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 29-C.Edmonds up the middle pushed ob at SEA 33 for 32 yards (37-Q.Diggs).
OT · 5:46ARI +25% win prob(5:46) 4-M.Dickson punts 48 yards to ARI 18, Center-69-T.Ott. 13-C.Kirk to ARI 28 for 10 yards (55-B.Burr-Kirven).
OT · 2:47SEA +24% win prob(2:47) 5-Z.Gonzalez 41 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-A.Lee.
OT · 0:20ARI +24% win prob(:20) 5-Z.Gonzalez 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-A.Lee.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Seahawks	Cardinals
Offensive plays	82	77
Total yards	572 (edge)	519
Yards per play	7.0 (edge)	6.7
Expected points added / play	0.11 (edge)	0.07
Success rate	59% (edge)	53%
Dropback rate	70%	62%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.03	0.19 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.30 (edge)	-0.13
Third downs	5/14	5/12 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	9 (edge)	7
First downs gained on snaps	32 (edge)	28
Sacks taken	2	0 (edge)
Turnovers	3	2 (edge)

Seahawks outgained Cardinals 572–519 but lost the turnover battle 3–2. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · SEA

Russell WilsonQB

33/50, 388 yds, 3 TD, 3 INT

0.2 expected points added · +4.7% completion over expected

Passing · ARI

Kyler MurrayQB

34/48, 360 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT

12.3 expected points added · +6.7% completion over expected

Rushing · SEA

Russell WilsonQB

6 att, 84 yds, 0 TD

4.1 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · SEA

Carlos HydeRB

15 att, 68 yds, 1 TD

2.6 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · SEA

Tyler LockettWR

15/20 for 200 yds, 3 TD

42% of team targets · 13.7 expected points added

Receiving · ARI

DeAndre HopkinsWR

10/12 for 103 yds, 1 TD

27% of team targets · 0.8 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	SEA	SEA 25	8	75	3:01	Touchdown
2	ARI	ARI 25	5	-2	1:33	Punt
3	SEA	SEA 34	9	48	3:51	Turnover on downs
4	ARI	ARI 25	11	69	3:56	Touchdown
5	SEA	SEA 25	10	44	4:49	Turnover on downs
6	ARI	ARI 17	5	25	1:33	Fumble
7	SEA	ARI 31	5	28	2:23	Interception
8	ARI	SEA 8	4	5	2:11	Turnover on downs
9	SEA	SEA 3	7	97	2:39	Touchdown
10	ARI	ARI 25	8	75	2:50	Touchdown
11	SEA	SEA 25	5	85	0:31	Touchdown
12	ARI	ARI 25	8	44	0:43	Turnover on downs
13	ARI	ARI 25	7	28	3:10	Punt
14	SEA	SEA 20	7	34	3:20	Punt
15	ARI	ARI 7	13	88	5:31	Touchdown
16	SEA	SEA 10	11	60	5:41	Interception
17	ARI	ARI 20	1	0	0:08	Interception
18	SEA	ARI 45	13	40	5:26	Touchdown
19	ARI	ARI 25	16	65	4:16	Touchdown
20	SEA	SEA 14	7	20	1:36	Punt
21	ARI	ARI 20	8	54	0:52	Turnover on downs
22	SEA	SEA 25	8	14	4:30	Punt
23	ARI	ARI 28	6	49	2:48	Turnover on downs
24	SEA	SEA 31	7	27	1:45	Interception
25	ARI	SEA 49	6	19	0:42	Turnover on downs

0 of 25 drives ended in points. Longest march: Seahawks gained 97 scrimmage yards over 7 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Seattle Seahawks

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Russell Wilson	33/50	388	3	3	2	0.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Russell Wilson	6	84	14.0	0	4.1
Carlos Hyde	15	68	4.5	1	2.6
Chris Carson	5	34	6.8	0	2.0
Travis Homer	3	10	3.3	0	-0.4
David Moore	1	4	4.0	0	0.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Tyler Lockett	15	20	200	3	42%	13.7
David Moore	3	3	54	0	6%	5.8
Will Dissly	2	4	38	0	8%	0.3
DK Metcalf	2	5	23	0	10%	-2.9
Jacob Hollister	3	3	22	0	6%	0.7
Greg Olsen	2	3	18	0	6%	1.7
DeeJay Dallas	2	3	18	0	6%	-0.6
Carlos Hyde	3	4	8	0	8%	-1.2
Chris Carson	1	2	7	0	4%	-10.7
Freddie Swain	0	1	0	0	2%	-0.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Bobby Wagner	7	4	0	0
Ryan Neal	8	1	0	0
K.J. Wright	7	0	0	0
Jordyn Brooks	3	4	0	0
Quinton Dunbar	6	0	0	0
Tre Flowers	4	1	0	0
Shaquill Griffin	3	1	0	0
Jarran Reed	1	2	0	0
Quandre Diggs	1	2	1	1
Benson Mayowa	3	0	0	0

Arizona Cardinals

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Kyler Murray	34/48	360	3	1	0	12.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Kyler Murray	14	67	4.8	1	-3.5
Chase Edmonds	5	58	11.6	0	3.9
Kenyan Drake	14	34	2.4	0	-2.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
DeAndre Hopkins	10	12	103	1	27%	0.8
Chase Edmonds	7	7	87	0	16%	6.9
Larry Fitzgerald	8	8	62	0	18%	1.8
Dan Arnold	2	3	57	0	7%	3.5
Christian Kirk	5	8	37	2	18%	0.1
Kenyan Drake	1	2	7	0	5%	-0.2
Andy Isabella	1	3	7	0	7%	-5.0
Darrell Daniels	0	1	0	0	2%	-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Budda Baker	11	3	0.0	1	1
Haason Reddick	5	6	1.0	0	0
Dre Kirkpatrick	10	0	0.0	0	1
De'Vondre Campbell	6	3	0.0	0	0
Jordan Hicks	3	3	0.0	0	0
Patrick Peterson	3	1	0.0	1	2
Deionte Thompson	3	0	0.0	0	0
Tanner Vallejo	1	1	0.0	0	0
Byron Murphy	2	0	1.0	0	0
Andy Isabella	1	0	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: SEA -3.5
Closing total: 55.5
SEA moneyline: -186
ARI moneyline: +166

Seahawks closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 55.5; the game landed 71 — over by 15.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: State Farm Stadium
Roof / surface: closed · grass
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: John Hussey
Rest: SEA 14 days · ARI 6 days
Coaches: Pete Carroll vs Kliff Kingsbury

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.