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1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 7.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 20 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Cardinals.
MarketModelmodel higher on Cardinalshigher on Seahawks207 of 223 plays carry both curves
(4:58) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 29-C.Edmonds up the middle pushed ob at SEA 33 for 32 yards (37-Q.Diggs).
Swing +29.9 for CardinalsExpected points +2.29 for CardinalsModel and market agree here.play 202
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
Overtime · 4:58ARI +30% win prob(4:58) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 29-C.Edmonds up the middle pushed ob at SEA 33 for 32 yards (37-Q.Diggs).
Overtime · 5:46ARI +25% win prob(5:46) 4-M.Dickson punts 48 yards to ARI 18, Center-69-T.Ott. 13-C.Kirk to ARI 28 for 10 yards (55-B.Burr-Kirven).
Overtime · 2:47SEA +24% win prob(2:47) 5-Z.Gonzalez 41 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-A.Lee.
Overtime · 0:20ARI +24% win prob(:20) 5-Z.Gonzalez 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-A.Lee.
Overtime · 8:32ARI +23% win prob(8:32) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep middle to 83-D.Moore to SEA 45 for 18 yards (20-D.Kirkpatrick).
2nd · 9:08SEA +21% win prob(9:08) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right intended for 32-C.Carson INTERCEPTED by 32-B.Baker at ARI 2. 32-B.Baker to SEA 8 for 90 yards (14-D.Metcalf).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Zane Gonzalez's 48-yard field goal with 0:20 left in overtime put Arizona Cardinals ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st12:03Tyler Lockett·3-yd TD catch3-yard touchdown catchfrom Russell Wilsonfrom Russell Wilson+77–0
1st6:39Jason Myers·41-yd field goal41-yard field goalholder M.Dickson · snap T.Ott+310–0
4th0:02Zane Gonzalez·44-yd field goal44-yard field goalholder A.Lee · snap A.Brewer+334–34
Overtime0:20Zane Gonzalez·48-yd field goal48-yard field goalholder A.Lee · snap A.BrewerLead never changed again+334–37
13 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Seahawkscategory by categoryCardinals
Seahawks5–4Cardinals
572Total yards519
7.0Yards per play6.7
59%Success rate53%
36%Third-down rate42%
2Red-zone touchdowns3
9Explosive plays7
32First downs28
2Sacks taken0
3Turnovers2
The read
Seahawks ahead 5–4 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Cardinals, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.11Seahawks: +0.11 expected points added per play
+0.07Cardinals: +0.07 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.03Seahawks: +0.03 expected points added per play
+0.19Cardinals: +0.19 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.30Seahawks: +0.30 expected points added per play
−0.13Cardinals: −0.13 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Seahawks ran 82 snaps at a 70% dropback rate against Cardinals’s 77 at 62%. Red-zone trips: Seahawks 5, Cardinals 6.
NoteSeahawks outgained Cardinals 572-519 but lost the turnover battle 3-2. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
SEA's sack or hit rate, 0.0%, was the lowest of the 28 team-games charted in week 7 — 2.3 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous low of 9.8% in week 4.
2.7 times their own weekly swing below their number.
48 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.5 points.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekOver Expected
SEA's pass rate over expected, +14.3 pts, was the highest of the 28 team-games charted in week 7 — 0.8 points clear of the next team along.
82 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.7 points.
ARI's early-down pass rate turned over: 37.8% in week 6 against 60.3% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
63 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.0 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 21 pts
off script — stayed blocked · −14.9 vs their 14.9%, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (−2.71× that swing) · 48 dropbacks
Cardinals15.8%
right on their number · −0.8 vs their 16.6%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (−0.13× that swing) · 57 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteSEA's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 0.0%, 14.9 points below their season mean of 14.9% and 2.7 times their own 5.5-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Cardinals attack right, the Seahawks attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Seahawks←Cardinals→
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
R.Wilson pass−31% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(9:08) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right intended for 32-C.Carson INTERCEPTED by 32-B.Baker at ARI 2. 32-B.Baker to SEA 8 for 90 yards (14-D.Metcalf).
Q2 9:08 · Seahawks · 1st & goal at ARI 3 · gained nothing · -11.50 EP · −30.5% win probability
205 snaps placed · 18 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 223 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 223 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
13 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was SEA moving 97 yards from the SEA 3 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; ARI attacks right, SEA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
223 of 223 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
223
EPA per play
+0.07
Success rate
49%
Yards
1091
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Seahawks1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR41-0.1459%
Seahawks1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR38+0.3471%
Cardinals1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR33+0.4167%
Cardinals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR20-0.0975%
Cardinals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR13-0.0638%
Cardinals1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR9-0.4622%
Cardinals1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Seahawks1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
Seahawks1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Seahawks2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
223 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
223 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter44 plays
Seahawks6Cardinals0
Seahawks7Cardinals0
Touchdown8 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Cardinals 3
Punt6 plays
Seahawks10Cardinals0
Field goal10 plays, from the Seahawks 34 to the Cardinals 23
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
Seahawks10Cardinals6
Seahawks10Cardinals7
Touchdown12 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Seahawks 35
The period ended7 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Cardinals 43
2nd quarter53 plays
Seahawks13Cardinals7
Field goal5 plays, from the Cardinals 44 to the Cardinals 26
Offense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.2 seconds
Fumble lost4 plays, from the Cardinals 17 to the Cardinals 40
Drive ended4 plays, from the Cardinals 31 to the Cardinals 21
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.9 seconds
Intercepted1 play
Turnover on downs4 plays, from the Seahawks 8 to the Seahawks 2
Seahawks19Cardinals7
Seahawks20Cardinals7
Touchdown7 plays, from the Seahawks 3 to the Cardinals 24
Seahawks20Cardinals13
Seahawks20Cardinals14
Touchdown8 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Seahawks 7
Seahawks26Cardinals14
Seahawks27Cardinals14
Touchdown7 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Cardinals 37
Seahawks27Cardinals17
Field goal11 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Seahawks 31
3rd quarter36 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Seahawks 46
Punt7 plays, from the Seahawks 20 to the Cardinals 46
Seahawks27Cardinals23
Seahawks27Cardinals24
Touchdown15 plays, from the Cardinals 7 to the Seahawks 5
The period ended7 plays, from the Seahawks 10 to the Seahawks 43
4th quarter58 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.6 seconds
Intercepted6 plays, from the Seahawks 48 to the Cardinals 29
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.9 seconds
Intercepted1 play
Seahawks33Cardinals24
Seahawks34Cardinals24
Touchdown14 plays, from the Cardinals 45 to the Cardinals 3
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back and four receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.9 seconds
Seahawks34Cardinals30
Seahawks34Cardinals31
Touchdown18 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Seahawks 8
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldThree linemen, five linebackers and three backsIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerSix
Punt10 plays, from the Seahawks 14 to the Seahawks 34
Seahawks34Cardinals34
Field goal8 plays, from the Cardinals 20 to the Seahawks 26
Overtime32 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFive
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.8 seconds
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defenders
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldSix linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFour
Punt9 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Seahawks 49
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back and four receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
No good7 plays, from the Cardinals 28 to the Seahawks 18
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.3 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw7.5 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldSix linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.4 seconds
Intercepted8 plays, from the Seahawks 31 to the Cardinals 48
Seahawks34Cardinals37
Field goal7 plays, from the Seahawks 49 to the Seahawks 30
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
