2020 Week 7 · Sun, Oct 25, 2020 · Gillette Stadium

San Francisco 49ersWinner

New England Patriots

NE -3 upsetU 44 ✓Patriots closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

San Francisco 49ers 33–6 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 2:14, SF +8% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 2:14SF — NE SF ball · 3rd & 12SF 62%

(2:14) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass deep middle intended for 85-G.Kittle INTERCEPTED by 32-D.McCourty at NE 44. 32-D.McCourty to SF 37 for 19 yards (28-J.McKinnon). PENALTY on NE-50-C.Winovich, Unnecessary Roughness, 15

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 2:14SF +8% win prob(2:14) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass deep middle intended for 85-G.Kittle INTERCEPTED by 32-D.McCourty at NE 44. 32-D.McCourty to SF 37 for 19 yards (28-J.McKinnon). PENALTY on NE-50-C.Winovich, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at SF 37. NE 32-D.McCourty 28th career interception, t-6th in franchise history (Haynes).
Q2 · 9:05NE +7% win prob(9:05) 9-R.Gould 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-6-M.Wishnowsky.
Q2 · 8:55SF +7% win prob(8:55) 1-C.Newton pass short left intended for 16-J.Meyers INTERCEPTED by 54-F.Warner at NE 41. 54-F.Warner to NE 38 for 3 yards (16-J.Meyers).
Q1 · 5:58NE +6% win prob(5:58) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short right to 85-G.Kittle pushed ob at SF 25 for 14 yards (24-S.Gilmore).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	49ers	Patriots
Offensive plays	63	49
Total yards	467 (edge)	241
Yards per play	7.4 (edge)	4.9
Expected points added / play	0.39 (edge)	-0.33
Success rate	62% (edge)	45%
Dropback rate	43%	61%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.62 (edge)	-0.52
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.22 (edge)	-0.03
Third downs	5/9 (edge)	1/6
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	9 (edge)	4
First downs gained on snaps	26 (edge)	15
Sacks taken	1 (edge)	2
Turnovers	2 (edge)	4

49ers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.39 expected points added per play vs -0.33.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · SF

Jimmy GaroppoloQB

20/25, 277 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT

15.7 expected points added · +8.2% completion over expected

Passing · NE

Cam NewtonQB

9/15, 98 yds, 0 TD, 3 INT

-11.5 expected points added · -1.6% completion over expected

Rushing · SF

Jeffery WilsonRB

17 att, 112 yds, 3 TD

7.8 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NE

Damien HarrisRB

10 att, 58 yds, 0 TD

1.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · SF

Brandon AiyukWR

6/7 for 115 yds, 0 TD

28% of team targets · 8.2 expected points added

Receiving · SF

Deebo SamuelWR

5/5 for 65 yds, 0 TD

20% of team targets · 4.8 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	SF	SF 25	11	75	5:04	Touchdown
2	NE	NE 24	7	20	2:44	Punt
3	SF	SF 12	8	33	5:10	Interception
4	NE	NE 48	6	15	2:06	Turnover on downs
5	SF	SF 21	11	61	5:56	Turnover on downs
6	NE	NE 27	2	0	0:14	Interception
7	SF	NE 38	6	38	2:23	Touchdown
8	NE	NE 32	5	4	1:41	Punt
9	SF	SF 16	8	94	3:43	Touchdown
10	NE	NE 28	3	20	0:45	Interception
11	SF	NE 45	2	0	0:14	Interception
12	NE	NE 27	9	50	4:12	Turnover on downs
13	SF	SF 21	8	84	3:16	Touchdown
14	NE	NE 25	8	41	2:45	Interception
15	SF	SF 31	10	55	6:20	Turnover on downs
16	NE	NE 28	9	35	4:04	Interception
17	SF	SF 18	9	27	6:17	Punt
18	NE	NE 10	11	56	3:06	End of game

0 of 18 drives ended in points. Longest march: 49ers gained 94 scrimmage yards over 8 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

San Francisco 49ers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jimmy Garoppolo	20/25	277	0	2	1	15.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Jeffery Wilson	17	112	6.6	3	7.8
Jamycal Hasty	9	57	6.3	0	1.8
Kyle Juszczyk	4	18	4.5	1	2.1
Deebo Samuel	3	7	2.3	0	-1.0
Jimmy Garoppolo	1	4	4.0	0	1.2
Jerick McKinnon	3	-1	-0.3	0	-2.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Brandon Aiyuk	6	7	115	28%	8.2
Deebo Samuel	5	5	65	20%	4.8
George Kittle	5	7	55	28%	3.1
Kyle Juszczyk	1	2	18	8%	1.2
Jamycal Hasty	1	1	16	4%	1.1
Jeffery Wilson	2	2	8	8%	-0.5
Kendrick Bourne	0	1	0	4%	-0.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Tarvarius Moore	5	1	0.0	0	1
Fred Warner	2	4	0.0	1	1
Dre Greenlaw	3	3	1.0	0	0
Marcell Harris	5	0	0.0	0	0
Joe Walker	4	0	0.0	0	0
Azeez Al-Shaair	1	3	0.0	0	0
Jamar Taylor	3	0	0.0	2	2
Jason Verrett	2	0	0.0	0	0
D.J. Jones	1	1	0.0	0	0
Kevin Givens	1	1	1.0	0	0

New England Patriots

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Cam Newton	9/15	98	0	3	1	-11.5
Jarrett Stidham	6/10	64	0	1	1	-3.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Damien Harris	10	58	5.8	1.7
Cam Newton	5	19	3.8	-0.2
Rex Burkhead	4	12	3.0	-1.1
Jarrett Stidham	2	3	1.5	-0.8
Jakobi Meyers	1	2	2.0	-0.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Jakobi Meyers	4	6	60	27%	-3.1
Rex Burkhead	3	4	35	18%	1.5
Damiere Byrd	1	2	16	9%	-0.4
Julian Edelman	1	3	13	14%	-7.6
Damien Harris	1	1	12	5%	0.8
Dalton Keene	1	1	8	5%	0.5
Ryan Izzo	1	1	8	5%	0.2
N'Keal Harry	1	2	6	9%	-0.8
James White	1	1	3	5%	-1.0
Jakob Johnson	1	1	1	5%	-0.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Devin McCourty	6	2	0.0	1	1
Ja'Whaun Bentley	4	3	0.0	0	0
Stephon Gilmore	3	3	0.0	0	0
Anfernee Jennings	3	2	0.0	0	0
Adrian Phillips	4	1	0.0	0	0
Jonathan Jones	5	0	0.0	0	0
Jason McCourty	1	3	0.0	0	0
Lawrence Guy	2	2	1.0	0	0
Byron Cowart	2	1	0.0	0	0
Tashawn Bower	2	1	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: NE -3
Closing total: 44
SF moneyline: +150
NE moneyline: -167

Patriots closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 44; the game landed 39 — under by 5.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Gillette Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 49°F, wind 7 mph
Referee: Shawn Smith
Rest: SF 7 days · NE 7 days
Coaches: Kyle Shanahan vs Bill Belichick