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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:20 AM ET · 16 to play
Game Center
Game Center
2020 Week 7 · Sun, Oct 25, 2020 · Gillette Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2020 Week 7
It turned at Q1 2:14, 3rd and 12, on Devin McCourty — 7.5 win-probability points to the Patriots on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 2:14 · 3rd and 12
Devin McCourty
Patriots
(2:14) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass deep middle intended for 85-G.Kittle INTERCEPTED by 32-D.McCourty at NE 44. 32-D.McCourty to SF 37 for 19 yards (28-J.McKinnon). PENALTY on NE-50-C.Winovich, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at SF 37. NE 32-D.McCourty 28th career interception, t-6th in franchise history (Haynes).
San Francisco 49ers 33–6 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 2:14, Patriots +7.5% win probability on one snap.
7.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Throwing the ball
49ers won this one — +0.62 expected points per dropback, against Patriots at -0.52 expected points per dropback.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
49ers won this one — +0.39 expected points per snap, against Patriots at -0.33 expected points per snap.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
49ers won this one — 5 of 9 on third down, against Patriots at 1 of 6 on third down.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
49ers won this one — 62% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Patriots at 45% of snaps stayed on schedule.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 2.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 8 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about 49ers.
(2:14) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass deep middle intended for 85-G.Kittle INTERCEPTED by 32-D.McCourty at NE 44. 32-D.McCourty to SF 37 for 19 yards (28-J.McKinnon). PENALTY on NE-50-C.Winovich, Unnecessary Roughness, 15
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Jeffery Wilson's 3-yard rushing touchdown with 10:02 left in the 1st put San Francisco 49ers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
49erscategory by categoryPatriots
49ers ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.62 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: 49ers ran 63 snaps at a 43% dropback rate against Patriots’s 49 at 61%. Red-zone trips: 49ers 6, Patriots 0.
49ers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.39 expected points added per play vs -0.33.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
6 of 7 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -32 pts to 11 pts
Over Expected room →49ers-6.6 ptsinside their normal wobble · −1.8 vs their -4.7 pts, and they swing ±3.4 week to week (−0.53× that swing) · 63 snaps
Patriots-8.7 ptsright on their number · +3.4 vs their -12.1 pts, and they swing ±7.5 week to week (+0.45× that swing) · 49 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 19% to 81%
Tendencies room →49ers38.9%leaned — ran early · −15.9 vs their 54.7%, and they swing ±10.2 week to week (−1.56× that swing) · 54 early downs
Patriots55.8%inside their normal wobble · +7.5 vs their 48.3%, and they swing ±11.2 week to week (+0.67× that swing) · 43 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -30% to 89%
Fourth Down room →49ers—Only 0 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 30.4%.
Patriots—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 29.4%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 29%
Tendencies room →49ers6.7%inside their normal wobble · −5.4 vs their 12.1%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (−0.81× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Patriots7.4%inside their normal wobble · −4.8 vs their 12.2%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (−0.71× that swing) · 27 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
SF's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 38.9%, 15.9 points below their season mean of 54.7% and 1.6 times their own 10.2-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
San Francisco 49ers
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
New England Patriots
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · SF
20/25, 277 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT
15.7 expected points added · +8.2% completion over expected
Passing · NE
9/15, 98 yds, 0 TD, 3 INT
-11.5 expected points added · -1.6% completion over expected
No opportunity read for this era
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Patriots attack right, the 49ers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(8:55) 1-C.Newton pass short left intended for 16-J.Meyers INTERCEPTED by 54-F.Warner at NE 41. 54-F.Warner to NE 38 for 3 yards (16-J.Meyers).
Q2 8:55 · Patriots · 1st & 10 at NE 27 · gained nothing · -4.65 EP · −10.2% win probability
141 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 151 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 151 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
8 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was SF moving 84 yards from the SF 16 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NE attacks right, SF attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
151 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
151 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
49ers6
Patriots049ers7Patriots049ers7Patriots349ers10Patriots349ers16Patriots349ers22Patriots349ers23Patriots349ers23Patriots649ers29Patriots649ers30Patriots649ers33Patriots6Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: 49ers at Patriots, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 20/25 | 277 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +15.7 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeffery Wilson | 17 | 112 | 6.6 | 3 | +7.8 |
| Jamycal Hasty | 9 | 57 | 6.3 | 0 | +1.8 |
| Kyle Juszczyk | 4 | 18 | 4.5 | 1 | +2.1 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Aiyuk | 6 | 7 | 115 | 0 | 28% | +8.2 |
| Deebo Samuel | 5 | 5 | 65 | 0 | 20% | +4.8 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tarvarius Moore | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Fred Warner | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Dre Greenlaw | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marcell Harris |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 9/15 | 98 | 0 | 3 | 1 | −11.5 |
| Jarrett Stidham | 6/10 | 64 | 0 | 1 | 1 | −3.8 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2020_07_SF_NE
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Patriots closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 44; the game landed 39 — under by 5.0.
Conditions and crew
| Deebo Samuel | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 | −1.0 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 | +1.2 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 3 | -1 | -0.3 | 0 | −2.9 |
| George Kittle | 5 | 7 | 55 | 0 | 28% | +3.1 |
| Kyle Juszczyk | 1 | 2 | 18 | 0 | 8% | +1.2 |
| Jamycal Hasty | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 | 4% | +1.1 |
| Jeffery Wilson | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 8% | −0.5 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.7 |
| 5 |
| 0 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Joe Walker | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Azeez Al-Shaair | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jamar Taylor | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 2 | 2 |
| Jason Verrett | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| D.J. Jones | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kevin Givens | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damien Harris | 10 | 58 | 5.8 | 0 | +1.7 |
| Cam Newton | 5 | 19 | 3.8 | 0 | −0.2 |
| Rex Burkhead | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 | −1.1 |
| Jarrett Stidham | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 | −0.8 |
| Jakobi Meyers | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | −0.5 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jakobi Meyers | 4 | 6 | 60 | 0 | 27% | −3.1 |
| Rex Burkhead | 3 | 4 | 35 | 0 | 18% | +1.5 |
| Damiere Byrd | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 9% | −0.4 |
| Julian Edelman | 1 | 3 | 13 | 0 | 14% | −7.6 |
| Damien Harris | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 5% | +0.8 |
| Dalton Keene | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 5% | +0.5 |
| Ryan Izzo | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 5% | +0.2 |
| N'Keal Harry | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 9% | −0.8 |
| James White | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 5% | −1.0 |
| Jakob Johnson | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5% | −0.2 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin McCourty | 6 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Ja'Whaun Bentley | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Stephon Gilmore | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Anfernee Jennings | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Adrian Phillips | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Jones | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jason McCourty | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lawrence Guy | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Byron Cowart | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tashawn Bower | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
