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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:22 AM ET · 16 to play
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 45 at Las Vegas Raiders 20. Final.
Buccaneers -3.5 ✓O 51.5 ✓
The verdict · 2020 Week 7
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 45, Raiders 20 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q2 0:25, 2nd and 10, on Scott Miller — 11.0 win-probability points to the Buccaneers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 0:25 · 2nd and 10
Scott Miller
Buccaneers
(:25) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep left to 10-S.Miller for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Dome
Buccaneers closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 25.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 45–20 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 0:25, Buccaneers +11.0% win probability on one snap.
11.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Rob GronkowskiBuccaneersQ1 8:35(8:35) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep left to 87-R.Gronkowski to 50 for 22 yards (25-E.Harris). FUMBLES (25-E.Harris), ball out of bounds at 50.
7.4pts
Leonard FournetteBuccaneersQ4 11:57(11:57) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 28-L.Fournette to TB 43 for 13 yards (50-N.Morrow).
7.4pts
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Buccaneers won this one — +0.63 expected points per dropback, against Raiders at -0.08 expected points per dropback.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Buccaneers won this one — +0.36 expected points per snap, against Raiders at -0.11 expected points per snap.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Buccaneers won this one — no giveaways, against Raiders at 2 giveaways.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Buccaneers won this one — 53% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Raiders at 41% of snaps stayed on schedule.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 10.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 22 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Raiders.
MarketModelmodel higher on Raidershigher on Buccaneers172 of 180 plays carry both curves
(:25) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep left to 10-S.Miller for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −11.0 for RaidersExpected points −4.15 for RaidersThe model had Raiders 10 points higher than the market did.play 87
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 0:25LV +11% win prob(:25) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep left to 10-S.Miller for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 11:57LV +7% win prob(11:57) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 28-L.Fournette to TB 43 for 13 yards (50-N.Morrow).
1st · 8:35LV +7% win prob(8:35) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep left to 87-R.Gronkowski to 50 for 22 yards (25-E.Harris). FUMBLES (25-E.Harris), ball out of bounds at 50.
1st · 12:58LV +7% win prob(12:58) (No Huddle) 4-D.Carr pass deep middle to 15-N.Agholor to TB 39 for 28 yards (33-J.Whitehead).
1st · 13:39LV +7% win prob(13:39) 8-B.Pinion punts 43 yards to LV 30, Center-97-Z.Triner, fair catch by 13-H.Renfrow.
1st · 10:02LV +7% win prob(10:02) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep middle to 15-N.Agholor for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 0:40
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Rob Gronkowski's 5-yard touchdown catch with 4:26 left in the 2nd put Tampa Bay Buccaneers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
4th3:13Tyler Johnson·1-yd TD catch1-yard touchdown catchfrom Tom Bradyfrom Tom Brady+745–20
11 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Buccaneerscategory by categoryRaiders
Buccaneers9–0Raiders
454Total yards347
6.7Yards per play5.5
53%Success rate41%
58%Third-down rate38%
5Red-zone touchdowns2
8Explosive plays7
27First downs17
0Sacks taken3
0Turnovers2
The read
Buccaneers ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.63 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.36Buccaneers: +0.36 expected points added per play
−0.11Raiders: −0.11 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.63Buccaneers: +0.63 expected points added per play
−0.08Raiders: −0.08 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.12Buccaneers: −0.12 expected points added per play
−0.17Raiders: −0.17 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Buccaneers ran 68 snaps at a 63% dropback rate against Raiders’s 63 at 65%. Red-zone trips: Buccaneers 8, Raiders 3.
NoteBuccaneers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.36 expected points added per play vs -0.11.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
TB's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 0.0% in week 6 against 33.3% here — they took the kick then and went for it now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 9 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 14.3 points.
TB's sack or hit rate turned over: 28.6% in week 6 against 12.2% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
41 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.8 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 29 pts
inside their normal wobble · −4.8 vs their 17.0%, and they swing ±7.8 week to week (−0.62× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Raiders2.3%
leaned — stayed blocked · −9.8 vs their 12.2%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (−1.56× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteLV's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 2.3%, 9.8 points below their season mean of 12.2% and 1.6 times their own 6.3-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Raiders attack right, the Buccaneers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Buccaneers←Raiders→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
T.Brady pass+11% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(:25) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep left to 10-S.Miller for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 0:25 · Buccaneers · 2nd & 10 at LV 33 · gained 33 · +4.15 EP · +10.8% win probability
170 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 180 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 180 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
11 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was TB moving 88 yards from the TB 12 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LV attacks right, TB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
180 of 180 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
180
EPA per play
+0.12
Success rate
47%
Yards
801
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR34+0.4568%
Raiders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR32-0.1963%
Raiders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR13+0.0054%
Buccaneers1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR13+0.2785%
Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR9+0.4433%
Raiders2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR9-0.1367%
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7+0.0143%
Raiders2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Raiders1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Buccaneers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Raiders1 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Raiders2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Buccaneers0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
180 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
180 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Buccaneers 24 to the Buccaneers 27
Buccaneers0Raiders6
Buccaneers0Raiders7
Touchdown7 plays, from the Raiders 30 to the Buccaneers 20
Buccaneers6Raiders7
Buccaneers7Raiders7
Touchdown12 plays, from the Buccaneers 23 to the Raiders 1
The period ended12 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Buccaneers 28
2nd quarter54 plays
Buccaneers7Raiders10
Field goal2 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Buccaneers 42
Punt9 plays, from the Raiders 9 to the Raiders 37
Buccaneers13Raiders10
Buccaneers14Raiders10
Touchdown9 plays, from the Buccaneers 15 to the Raiders 4
Punt9 plays, from the Raiders 25 to midfield
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.9 seconds
Buccaneers20Raiders10
Buccaneers21Raiders10
Touchdown15 plays, from the Buccaneers 12 to the Raiders 33
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter42 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Raiders 25 to midfield
Buccaneers24Raiders10
Field goal11 plays, from the Buccaneers 20 to the Raiders 10
Buccaneers24Raiders16
Buccaneers24Raiders17
Touchdown10 plays, from the Raiders 29 to the Buccaneers 1
Punt6 plays, from the Buccaneers 34 to the Buccaneers 36
The period ended7 plays, from the Raiders 29 to the Buccaneers 46
4th quarter47 plays
Buccaneers24Raiders20
Field goal5 plays, from the Buccaneers 36 to the Buccaneers 17
Buccaneers30Raiders20
Buccaneers31Raiders20
Touchdown14 plays, from the Buccaneers 33 to the Raiders 4
Intercepted2 plays
Buccaneers37Raiders20
Buccaneers38Raiders20
Touchdown3 plays, from the Raiders 24 to the Raiders 1
Turnover on downs6 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Raiders 34
Buccaneers44Raiders20
Buccaneers45Raiders20
Touchdown9 plays, from the Raiders 32 to the Raiders 1
The period ended8 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Raiders 41
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
