2020 Week 7 · Sun, Oct 25, 2020 · Allegiant Stadium

Tampa Bay BuccaneersWinner

Las Vegas Raiders

TB -3.5 ✓O 51.5 ✓DomeBuccaneers closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 25.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 45–20 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 0:25, LV +11% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 0:25TB — LV TB ball · 2nd & 10TB 77%

(:25) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep left to 10-S.Miller for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 0:25LV +11% win prob(:25) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep left to 10-S.Miller for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 11:57LV +7% win prob(11:57) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 28-L.Fournette to TB 43 for 13 yards (50-N.Morrow).
Q1 · 8:35LV +7% win prob(8:35) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep left to 87-R.Gronkowski to 50 for 22 yards (25-E.Harris). FUMBLES (25-E.Harris), ball out of bounds at 50.
Q1 · 12:58LV +7% win prob(12:58) (No Huddle) 4-D.Carr pass deep middle to 15-N.Agholor to TB 39 for 28 yards (33-J.Whitehead).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Buccaneers	Raiders
Offensive plays	68	63
Total yards	454 (edge)	347
Yards per play	6.7 (edge)	5.5
Expected points added / play	0.36 (edge)	-0.11
Success rate	53% (edge)	41%
Dropback rate	63%	65%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.63 (edge)	-0.08
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.12 (edge)	-0.17
Third downs	7/12 (edge)	5/13
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	8 (edge)	7
First downs gained on snaps	27 (edge)	17
Sacks taken	0 (edge)	3
Turnovers	0 (edge)	2

Buccaneers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.36 expected points added per play vs -0.11.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · TB

Tom BradyQB

33/45, 369 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT

26.7 expected points added · +14.7% completion over expected

Passing · LV

Derek CarrQB

24/36, 284 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

-6.1 expected points added · -4.6% completion over expected

Rushing · TB

Leonard FournetteRB

11 att, 50 yds, 0 TD

-0.5 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · TB

Ronald JonesRB

13 att, 34 yds, 1 TD

-3.6 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · TB

Scott MillerWR

6/9 for 109 yds, 1 TD

22% of team targets · 7.2 expected points added

Receiving · LV

Nelson AgholorWR

5/9 for 107 yds, 1 TD

25% of team targets · -0.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	TB	TB 24	5	3	1:28	Punt
2	LV	LV 30	7	70	3:37	Touchdown
3	TB	TB 23	12	77	4:18	Touchdown
4	LV	LV 25	12	56	5:46	Fumble
5	TB	TB 25	7	17	1:50	Punt
6	LV	LV 9	9	28	4:08	Punt
7	TB	TB 15	9	85	4:32	Touchdown
8	LV	LV 25	7	15	2:02	Punt
9	TB	TB 12	14	88	2:02	Touchdown
10	LV	LV 25	2	9	0:17	End of half
11	LV	LV 25	8	25	1:59	Punt
12	TB	TB 20	10	64	4:45	Turnover on downs
13	LV	LV 29	8	61	4:01	Touchdown
14	TB	TB 34	5	6	1:52	Punt
15	LV	LV 29	11	54	4:40	Turnover on downs
16	TB	TB 33	13	58	5:21	Touchdown
17	LV	LV 25	2	0	0:13	Interception
18	TB	LV 24	3	24	0:29	Touchdown
19	LV	LV 25	5	7	1:13	Turnover on downs
20	TB	LV 32	7	32	2:19	Touchdown
21	LV	LV 25	7	22	3:08	End of game

0 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Buccaneers gained 88 scrimmage yards over 14 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Tom Brady	33/45	369	4	0	0	26.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Leonard Fournette	11	50	4.5	0	-0.5
Ronald Jones	13	34	2.6	1	-3.6
Tom Brady	1	1	1.0	1	1.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Scott Miller	6	9	109	1	22%	7.2
Chris Godwin	9	9	88	1	22%	9.3
Rob Gronkowski	5	8	62	1	20%	3.8
Leonard Fournette	6	7	47	0	17%	2.7
Mike Evans	2	2	37	0	5%	3.9
Tanner Hudson	1	1	12	0	2%	0.8
Cameron Brate	1	1	8	0	2%	1.0
Tyler Johnson	2	2	4	1	5%	0.9
Ronald Jones	1	2	2	0	5%	-1.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Devin White	9	2	3.0	0	0
Lavonte David	7	1	0.0	0	0
Shaquil Barrett	4	2	0.0	0	1
Steve McLendon	2	2	0.0	0	0
Jamel Dean	4	0	0.0	0	0
Jordan Whitehead	3	0	0.0	0	0
Carlton Davis	3	0	0.0	0	1
Anthony Nelson	3	0	0.0	0	0
Sean Murphy-Bunting	2	0	0.0	0	0
Antoine Winfield	1	1	0.0	1	1

Las Vegas Raiders

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Derek Carr	24/36	284	2	1	3	-6.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Jalen Richard	7	24	3.4	-1.0
Derek Carr	2	19	9.5	3.0
Josh Jacobs	10	17	1.7	-4.0
Henry Ruggs	1	10	10.0	0.7
Devontae Booker	3	5	1.7	-1.4
Jeff Heath	1	1	1.0	2.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Nelson Agholor	5	9	107	1	25%	-0.5
Darren Waller	6	9	50	1	25%	0.1
Hunter Renfrow	4	6	42	0	17%	0.2
Henry Ruggs	2	3	35	0	8%	2.1
Alec Ingold	1	1	21	0	3%	1.2
Josh Jacobs	3	4	14	0	11%	-0.7
Devontae Booker	2	2	9	0	6%	-1.0
Jason Witten	1	1	6	0	3%	0.1
Rico Gafford	0	1	0	0	3%	-1.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Trayvon Mullen	9	0	2
Nick Kwiatkoski	3	4	0
Erik Harris	6	1	0
Jeff Heath	4	2	0
Nevin Lawson	5	1	1
Cory Littleton	2	3	0
Maxx Crosby	1	3	0
Lamarcus Joyner	3	1	0
Johnathan Hankins	2	1	0
Carl Nassib	1	1	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: TB -3.5
Closing total: 51.5
TB moneyline: -192
LV moneyline: +171

Buccaneers closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 25.

Total closed 51.5; the game landed 65 — over by 13.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Allegiant Stadium
Roof / surface: dome · grass
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Scott Novak
Rest: TB 7 days · LV 14 days
Coaches: Bruce Arians vs Jon Gruden