2020 Week 8 · Thu, Oct 29, 2020 · Bank of America Stadium

Atlanta FalconsWinner

Carolina Panthers

CAR -1.5 upsetU 52 ✓Panthers closed -1.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Atlanta Falcons 25–17. Biggest swing: Q3 5:33, CAR +17% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q3 · 5:33ATL — CAR CAR ball · 4th & 9ATL 71%

(5:33) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 21-J.Chinn. 21-J.Chinn right end pushed ob at ATL 40 for 28 yards (15-B.Powell).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q3 · 5:33CAR +17% win prob(5:33) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 21-J.Chinn. 21-J.Chinn right end pushed ob at ATL 40 for 28 yards (15-B.Powell).
Q4 · 1:04ATL +12% win prob(1:04) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass deep left intended for 12-D.Moore INTERCEPTED by 33-B.Wreh-Wilson at ATL 9. 33-B.Wreh-Wilson to ATL 12 for 3 yards. Penalty on CAR-72-T.Moton, Offensive Holding, declined.
Q3 · 11:36ATL +12% win prob(11:36) 28-M.Davis right guard to ATL 43 for -1 yards (97-G.Jarrett; 54-F.Oluokun).
Q4 · 1:47CAR +11% win prob(1:47) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass deep right to 12-D.Moore to ATL 34 for 42 yards (24-A.Terrell).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Falcons	Panthers
Offensive plays	66	52
Total yards	403 (edge)	304
Yards per play	6.1 (edge)	5.8
Expected points added / play	0.20 (edge)	-0.05
Success rate	52% (edge)	42%
Dropback rate	55%	65%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.44 (edge)	-0.07
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.08	-0.02 (edge)
Third downs	3/9 (edge)	2/10
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	10 (edge)	9
First downs gained on snaps	24 (edge)	15
Sacks taken	2 (edge)	3
Turnovers	1 (edge)	2

Falcons won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.20 expected points added per play vs -0.05.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · ATL

Matt RyanQB

21/30, 281 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

9.9 expected points added · +4.8% completion over expected

Passing · CAR

Teddy BridgewaterQB

15/23, 176 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-1.1 expected points added · +2.5% completion over expected

Rushing · CAR

Mike DavisRB

13 att, 66 yds, 0 TD

-3.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · ATL

Brian HillRB

11 att, 55 yds, 0 TD

1.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · ATL

Julio JonesWR

7/10 for 137 yds, 0 TD

33% of team targets · 10.1 expected points added

Receiving · CAR

D.J. MooreWR

2/6 for 55 yds, 0 TD

23% of team targets · -0.7 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	ATL	ATL 25	8	72	3:46	Turnover on downs
2	CAR	CAR 25	8	52	3:00	Touchdown
3	ATL	ATL 25	13	62	5:38	Turnover on downs
4	CAR	CAR 34	6	16	2:43	Punt
5	ATL	ATL 17	1	0	0:06	Interception
6	CAR	ATL 40	5	40	2:07	Touchdown
7	ATL	ATL 25	12	75	4:38	Touchdown
8	CAR	CAR 25	8	41	4:07	Turnover on downs
9	ATL	ATL 35	10	42	3:55	Turnover on downs
10	CAR	CAR 25	8	32	3:28	Fumble
11	ATL	ATL 43	10	41	5:10	Turnover on downs
12	CAR	CAR 31	12	38	3:23	Turnover on downs
13	ATL	ATL 25	13	70	6:58	Touchdown
14	CAR	CAR 25	7	25	2:41	Punt
15	ATL	ATL 5	10	41	5:22	Punt
16	CAR	CAR 5	9	60	2:01	Interception
17	ATL	ATL 12	2	0	0:57	End of game

0 of 17 drives ended in points. Longest march: Falcons gained 75 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Atlanta Falcons

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Matt Ryan	21/30	281	0	1	2	9.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Brian Hill	11	55	5.0	0	1.4
Todd Gurley	18	46	2.6	1	-4.6
Matt Ryan	6	27	4.5	1	6.0
Qadree Ollison	1	3	3.0	0	0.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Julio Jones	7	10	137	33%	10.1
Hayden Hurst	5	7	54	23%	1.8
Calvin Ridley	3	4	42	13%	1.2
Russell Gage	2	3	25	10%	-0.8
Christian Blake	2	2	14	7%	0.3
Brian Hill	2	3	9	10%	-0.3
Keith Smith	0	1	0	3%	-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Keanu Neal	6	1	0.0	0	1
Deion Jones	4	1	1.0	0	0
Grady Jarrett	1	4	0.0	0	0
Foyesade Oluokun	4	1	0.0	0	0
A.J. Terrell	4	1	0.0	0	0
Blidi Wreh-Wilson	3	1	0.0	1	1
Isaiah Oliver	3	0	1.0	0	0
Dante Fowler	1	1	1.0	0	0
Jacob Tuioti-Mariner	2	0	0.0	0	0
Jaylinn Hawkins	1	1	0.0	0	0

Carolina Panthers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Teddy Bridgewater	15/23	176	1	1	3	-1.1
P.J. Walker	1/4	3	0	0	0	-2.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Mike Davis	13	66	5.1	0	-3.3
Teddy Bridgewater	5	30	6.0	0	-1.5
Jeremy Chinn	1	28	28.0	0	4.4
Curtis Samuel	3	23	7.7	1	1.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
D.J. Moore	2	6	55	0	23%	-0.7
Robbie Chosen	5	8	48	0	31%	-2.0
Curtis Samuel	4	5	31	1	19%	-0.1
Ian Thomas	3	3	28	0	12%	1.2
Mike Davis	1	2	11	0	8%	-0.1
Chris Manhertz	1	1	6	0	4%	-0.0
Colin Thompson	0	1	0	0	4%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Jeremy Chinn	6	4	1
Tre Boston	6	2	0
Tahir Whitehead	3	3	0
Shaq Thompson	3	3	1
Brian Burns	4	1	0
Sam Franklin	3	1	1
Derrick Brown	1	3	0
Troy Pride	1	3	1
Stephen Weatherly	2	2	0
Corn Elder	3	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: CAR -1.5
Closing total: 52
ATL moneyline: +104
CAR moneyline: -115

Panthers closed -1.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 52; the game landed 42 — under by 10.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Bank of America Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 76°F, wind 8 mph
Referee: Shawn Hochuli
Rest: ATL 4 days · CAR 4 days
Coaches: Raheem Morris vs Matt Rhule

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.