For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
2020 Week 8 · Thu, Oct 29, 2020 · Bank of America Stadium
Final
FalconsAtlanta25
BY 8final margin
PanthersCarolina17
Atlanta Falcons 25 at Carolina Panthers 17. Final.
Panthers -1.5 upset
The verdict · 2020 Week 8
Atlanta Falcons 25, Panthers 17 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q3 5:33, 4th and 9, on Jeremy Chinn — 16.6 win-probability points to the Panthers on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 5:33 · 4th and 9
Jeremy Chinn
Panthers
(5:33) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 21-J.Chinn. 21-J.Chinn right end pushed ob at ATL 40 for 28 yards (15-B.Powell).
U 52 ✓
Panthers closed -1.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Atlanta Falcons 25–17. Biggest swing: Q3 5:33, Panthers +16.6% win probability on one snap.
16.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Mike DavisFalconsQ3 11:36(11:36) 28-M.Davis right guard to ATL 43 for -1 yards (97-G.Jarrett; 54-F.Oluokun).
11.6pts
Blidi Wreh-WilsonFalconsQ4 1:04(1:04) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass deep left intended for 12-D.Moore INTERCEPTED by 33-B.Wreh-Wilson at ATL 9. 33-B.Wreh-Wilson to ATL 12 for 3 yards. Penalty on CAR-72-T.Moton, Offensive Holding, declined.
12.5pts
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Falcons won this one — +0.44 expected points per dropback, against Panthers at -0.07 expected points per dropback.
Falconsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Falcons won this one — +0.20 expected points per snap, against Panthers at -0.05 expected points per snap.
Falconsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Falcons won this one — 52% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Panthers at 42% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Falconsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Falcons won this one — 3 of 9 on third down, against Panthers at 2 of 10 on third down.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 3.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 7 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Panthers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Panthershigher on Falcons152 of 163 plays carry both curves
(5:33) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 21-J.Chinn. 21-J.Chinn right end pushed ob at ATL 40 for 28 yards (15-B.Powell).
Swing +16.6 for PanthersExpected points +4.44 for PanthersModel and market agree here.play 107
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 5:33CAR +17% win prob(5:33) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 21-J.Chinn. 21-J.Chinn right end pushed ob at ATL 40 for 28 yards (15-B.Powell).
4th · 1:04ATL +12% win prob(1:04) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass deep left intended for 12-D.Moore INTERCEPTED by 33-B.Wreh-Wilson at ATL 9. 33-B.Wreh-Wilson to ATL 12 for 3 yards. Penalty on CAR-72-T.Moton, Offensive Holding, declined.
3rd · 11:36ATL +12% win prob(11:36) 28-M.Davis right guard to ATL 43 for -1 yards (97-G.Jarrett; 54-F.Oluokun).
4th · 1:47CAR +11% win prob(1:47) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass deep right to 12-D.Moore to ATL 34 for 42 yards (24-A.Terrell).
2nd · 4:01ATL +11% win prob(4:01) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater right end pushed ob at ATL 34 for no gain (54-F.Oluokun).
3rd · 4:26CAR +10% win prob(4:26) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater sacked at ATL 39 for -2 yards (56-D.Fowler). CAR-5-T.Bridgewater was injured during the play. His return is Probable. PENALTY on ATL-92-C.Harris, Disqualification, 15 yards, enforced at ATL 39. Penalty on ATL-56-D.Fowler, Tripping, declined.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Younghoe Koo's 36-yard field goal with 0:03 left in the 2nd put Atlanta Falcons ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
Lead
1st11:17Younghoe Koo·20-yd field goal20-yard field goalholder S.Hofrichter · snap J.Harris+33–0
2nd0:03Younghoe Koo·36-yd field goal36-yard field goalholder S.Hofrichter · snap J.HarrisLead never changed again+316–14
3rd6:27Younghoe Koo·29-yd field goal29-yard field goalholder S.Hofrichter · snap J.Harris+319–14
3rd3:04Joey Slye·39-yd field goal39-yard field goalholder J.Charlton · snap J.Jansen+319–17
4th11:06Todd Gurley·3-yd TD run3-yard rushing touchdownkick no good, wide right+625–17
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Falconscategory by categoryPanthers
Falcons9–0Panthers
403Total yards304
6.1Yards per play5.8
52%Success rate42%
33%Third-down rate20%
2Red-zone touchdowns1
10Explosive plays9
24First downs15
2Sacks taken3
1Turnovers2
The read
Falcons ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.44 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.20Falcons: +0.20 expected points added per play
−0.05Panthers: −0.05 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.44Falcons: +0.44 expected points added per play
−0.07Panthers: −0.07 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.08Falcons: −0.08 expected points added per play
−0.02Panthers: −0.02 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Falcons ran 66 snaps at a 55% dropback rate against Panthers’s 52 at 65%. Red-zone trips: Falcons 6, Panthers 2.
NoteFalcons won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.20 expected points added per play vs -0.05.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
CAR's pass rate over expected turned over: +12.0 pts in week 7 against +1.0 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
52 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.4 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -14 pts to 15 pts
inside their normal wobble · +4.4 vs their 13.3%, and they swing ±5.7 week to week (+0.76× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Panthers13.9%
right on their number · +0.5 vs their 13.4%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (+0.08× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNothing either side did tonight left its own normal range. The widest departure was ATL's early-down pass rate, 52.6% against a season mean of 58.8% — and ATL swings 7.7 points week to week, so that is a Sunday, not a plan.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Atlanta Falcons
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 2 never used
77James CarpenterG · Every snap100%70 snaps
76Kaleb McGaryT · Every snap100%70 snaps
70Jake MatthewsT · Every snap100%70 snaps
63Chris LindstromG · Every snap100%70 snaps
2Matt RyanQB · Every snap100%70 snaps
51Alex MackC · Every snap100%70 snaps
11Julio JonesWR · Full-time83%58 snaps
81Hayden HurstTE · Full-time80%56 snaps
83Russell GageWR · Heavy rotation56%39 snaps
13Christian BlakeWR · Heavy rotation54%38 snaps
21Todd GurleyRB · Heavy rotation51%36 snaps
88Luke StockerTE · Rotational49%34 snaps
23Brian HillRB · Rotational36%25 snaps
18Calvin RidleyWR · Rotational33%23 snaps
40Keith SmithFB · Situational24%17 snaps
17Olamide ZaccheausWR · Situational13%9 snaps
30Qadree OllisonRB · Situational11%8 snaps
87Jaeden GrahamTE · Situational6%4 snaps
73Matt GonoT · Situational3%2 snaps
15Brandon PowellWR · Situational1%1 snap
Inactive · 5
Jordan MillerCBTakkarist McKinleyDEMarlon DavidsonDTIto SmithRBJohn WetzelT
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Panthers attack right, the Falcons attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Falcons←Panthers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
T.Bridgewater right−12% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(4:01) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater right end pushed ob at ATL 34 for no gain (54-F.Oluokun).
Q2 4:01 · Panthers · 4th & 1 at ATL 34 · gained nothing · -3.15 EP · −12.3% win probability
151 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 163 plays across 17 drives, personnel groupings on 163 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 17 drives ended in points. The longest march was CAR moving 75 yards from the CAR 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CAR attacks right, ATL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
163 of 163 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
163
EPA per play
+0.10
Success rate
45%
Yards
705
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Falcons1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR34+0.4065%
Panthers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR31-0.2368%
Falcons1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14-0.1043%
Falcons2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR8+0.1825%
Falcons2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR7-0.0514%
Panthers0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR7-0.1357%
Panthers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Panthers1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR3——
Panthers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Panthers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Falcons0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Panthers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Panthers2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Panthers1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
Falcons1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Falcons1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
163 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
163 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter42 plays
Falcons3Panthers0
Field goal9 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Panthers 3
Falcons3Panthers6
Falcons3Panthers7
Touchdown10 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Falcons 12
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.6 seconds
Falcons6Panthers7
Field goal16 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Panthers 13
The period ended6 plays, from the Panthers 34 to the Falcons 38
2nd quarter40 plays
Punt1 play
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.4 seconds
Intercepted1 play
Falcons6Panthers13
Falcons6Panthers14
Touchdown5 plays, from the Falcons 40 to the Falcons 29
Falcons12Panthers14
Falcons13Panthers14
Touchdown12 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Panthers 13
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Falcons 34
Falcons16Panthers14
Field goal11 plays, from the Falcons 35 to the Panthers 16
3rd quarter39 plays
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldTwo backs, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxEight defenders
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Falcons 42
Falcons19Panthers14
Field goal11 plays, from the Falcons 43 to the Panthers 11
Offense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end, one receiver, one punter, three linebackers, one long snapper and two backsDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, two linebackers and four backs
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back and four receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFive
Falcons19Panthers17
Field goal13 plays, from the Panthers 31 to the Falcons 21
The period ended7 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Panthers 48
4th quarter42 plays
Falcons25Panthers17
Touchdown8 plays, from the Panthers 43 to the Panthers 3
Punt7 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Falcons 49
Punt12 plays, from the Falcons 5 to the Panthers 44
Intercepted12 plays, from the Panthers 5 to the Falcons 30
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
