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2020 Week 8 · Sun, Nov 1, 2020 · Lincoln Financial Field
Final
CowboysDallas9
BY 14final margin
EaglesPhiladelphia23
Dallas Cowboys 9 at Philadelphia Eagles 23. Final.
Eagles -10 ✓U 43 ✓
The verdict · 2020 Week 8
Philadelphia Eagles 23, Cowboys 9 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 5:34, 3rd and 6, on Ben DiNucci — 18.7 win-probability points to the Eagles on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 5:34 · 3rd and 6
Ben DiNucci
Eagles
(5:34) (Shotgun) 7-B.DiNucci sacked at PHI 31 for -10 yards (57-T.Edwards). FUMBLES (57-T.Edwards) [57-T.Edwards], touched at PHI 35, RECOVERED by PHI-23-R.McLeod at PHI 47. 23-R.McLeod for 53 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Eagles closed -10 and covered, winning by 14.
Philadelphia Eagles 23–9. Biggest swing: Q4 5:34, Eagles +18.7% win probability on one snap.
18.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Ben DiNucciEaglesQ1 5:57(5:57) (Shotgun) 7-B.DiNucci sacked at PHI 17 for -10 yards (55-B.Graham). FUMBLES (55-B.Graham) [55-B.Graham], RECOVERED by PHI-55-B.Graham at PHI 17.
13.6pts
Trevon DiggsCowboysQ3 12:20(12:20) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass deep middle intended for 82-J.Hightower INTERCEPTED by 27-T.Diggs at DAL -2. 27-T.Diggs to DAL 31 for 33 yards (84-G.Ward).
14.8pts
What separated them
Red zone
Eagles won this one — 2 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Cowboys at 0 touchdowns on 2 trips.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Cowboys owned this one and still lost it — 2 giveaways, against Eagles at 4 giveaways.
Cowboysthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
Eagles won this one — 3 of 8 on third down, against Cowboys at 4 of 16 on third down.
5 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 13.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 30 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Cowboys.
MarketModelmodel higher on Eagleshigher on Cowboys169 of 179 plays carry both curves
(5:34) (Shotgun) 7-B.DiNucci sacked at PHI 31 for -10 yards (57-T.Edwards). FUMBLES (57-T.Edwards) [57-T.Edwards], touched at PHI 35, RECOVERED by PHI-23-R.McLeod at PHI 47. 23-R.McLeod for 53 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +18.7 for EaglesExpected points +10.47 for EaglesThe model had Cowboys 12 points higher than the market did.play 149
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 5:34DAL +19% win prob(5:34) (Shotgun) 7-B.DiNucci sacked at PHI 31 for -10 yards (57-T.Edwards). FUMBLES (57-T.Edwards) [57-T.Edwards], touched at PHI 35, RECOVERED by PHI-23-R.McLeod at PHI 47. 23-R.McLeod for 53 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 12:20DAL +15% win prob(12:20) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass deep middle intended for 82-J.Hightower INTERCEPTED by 27-T.Diggs at DAL -2. 27-T.Diggs to DAL 31 for 33 yards (84-G.Ward).
1st · 5:57DAL +14% win prob(5:57) (Shotgun) 7-B.DiNucci sacked at PHI 17 for -10 yards (55-B.Graham). FUMBLES (55-B.Graham) [55-B.Graham], RECOVERED by PHI-55-B.Graham at PHI 17.
1st · 8:48DAL +11% win prob(8:48) 11-C.Wentz sacked at PHI 25 for -10 yards (37-D.Wilson). FUMBLES (37-D.Wilson) [37-D.Wilson], RECOVERED by DAL-37-D.Wilson at PHI 25.
3rd · 1:58PHI +10% win prob(1:58) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short left to 13-T.Fulgham for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 12:54PHI +8% win prob(12:54) (Shotgun) 7-B.DiNucci pass short right to 88-C.Lamb to PHI 37 for 12 yards (31-N.Robey).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Travis Fulgham's 9-yard touchdown catch with 1:58 left in the 3rd put Philadelphia Eagles ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
Lead
1st10:15Greg Zuerlein·49-yd field goal49-yard field goalholder C.Jones · snap L.Ladouceur+33–0
4th5:34Rodney McLeod·53-yd defence TD53-yard touchdownthe defence scored itthe defence scored it · two-point no good+69–21
4th4:00Eagles·safetysafetytwo points, and the ball backtwo points, and the ball back+29–23
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Cowboyscategory by categoryEagles
Cowboys4–3Eagles
265Total yards225
3.4Yards per play3.8
41%Success rate39%
25%Third-down rate38%
0Red-zone touchdowns2
4Explosive plays4
21First downs16
4Sacks taken4
2Turnovers4
The read
Cowboys ahead 4–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Eagles, in red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.56 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.34Cowboys: −0.34 expected points added per play
−0.31Eagles: −0.31 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.56Cowboys: −0.56 expected points added per play
−0.45Eagles: −0.45 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.07Cowboys: −0.07 expected points added per play
−0.10Eagles: −0.10 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Cowboys ran 78 snaps at a 56% dropback rate against Eagles’s 59 at 59%. Red-zone trips: Cowboys 2, Eagles 3.
NoteEagles won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.31 expected points added per play vs -0.34.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 17 pts
inside their normal wobble · +4.2 vs their 12.9%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (+0.58× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Eagles15.9%
right on their number · −1.9 vs their 17.8%, and they swing ±8.1 week to week (−0.23× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteDAL's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -11.2 pts, 9.4 points below their season mean of -1.8 pts and 1.3 times their own 7.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Eagles attack right, the Cowboys attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Cowboys←Eagles→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
B.DiNucci sacked−30% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(5:34) (Shotgun) 7-B.DiNucci sacked at PHI 31 for -10 yards (57-T.Edwards). FUMBLES (57-T.Edwards) [57-T.Edwards], touched at PHI 35, RECOVERED by PHI-23-R.McLeod at PHI 47. 23-R.McLeod for 53 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 5:34 · Cowboys · 3rd & 6 at PHI 21 · lost 14 · -10.47 EP · −29.9% win probability
167 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 179 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 179 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
5 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was PHI moving 83 yards from the PHI 17 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; PHI attacks right, DAL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
179 of 179 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
179
EPA per play
-0.23
Success rate
38%
Yards
489
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Eagles1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR48-0.2956%
Cowboys1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR37-0.7278%
Cowboys1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR36-0.0131%
Eagles1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6-0.7050%
Eagles1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Cowboys0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR2——
Eagles1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR2——
Cowboys2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Cowboys1 RB, 0 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
179 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
179 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter35 plays
Cowboys3Eagles0
Field goal10 plays, from the Cowboys 22 to the Eagles 31
Offense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFive
Fumble lost4 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Eagles 44
Offense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFour
Fumble lost5 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Eagles 4
Cowboys3Eagles6
Cowboys3Eagles7
Touchdown13 plays, from the Eagles 17 to the Cowboys 2
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter56 plays
Punt5 plays
Fumble lost6 plays, from the Eagles 30 to the Cowboys 44
Cowboys6Eagles7
Field goal6 plays, from the Eagles 46 to the Eagles 31
Punt11 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Cowboys 43
Punt6 plays, from the Cowboys 20 to the Cowboys 35
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw6.0 seconds
Intercepted4 plays, from the Eagles 49 to the Cowboys 34
Punt4 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.1 seconds
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Eagles 47 to the Cowboys 44
Cowboys9Eagles7
Field goal6 plays, from the Cowboys 45 to the Eagles 41
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter37 plays
Intercepted8 plays, from the Eagles 20 to the Cowboys 48
No good10 plays, from the Cowboys 31 to the Eagles 26
Cowboys9Eagles13
Cowboys9Eagles15
Touchdown11 plays, from the Eagles 42 to the Cowboys 9
The period ended8 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Cowboys 47
4th quarter51 plays
Turnover on downs6 plays, from the Eagles 44 to the Eagles 35
Punt4 plays, from the Eagles 35 to the Eagles 39
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Offense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSeven
Cowboys9Eagles21
Touchdown11 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Eagles 21
Cowboys9Eagles23
Punt6 plays, from the Cowboys 23 to the Cowboys 28
Turnover on downs10 plays, from the Cowboys 45 to the Cowboys 32
The period ended13 plays, from the Cowboys 32 to the Eagles 15
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Cowboyscategory by categoryEagles
Cowboys3
Eagles0
