2020 Week 8 · Sun, Nov 1, 2020 · Ford Field

Indianapolis ColtsWinner

Detroit Lions

IND -3.5 ✓O 49 ✓DomeColts closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 20.

Indianapolis Colts 41–21 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q3 2:34, IND +11% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q3 · 2:34IND — DET DET ball · 3rd & 9IND 74%

(2:34) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford sacked at IND 34 for -9 yards (53-D.Leonard). FUMBLES (53-D.Leonard) [53-D.Leonard], RECOVERED by IND-50-J.Houston at IND 40. 50-J.Houston to IND 40 for no gain (73-J.Jackson).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q3 · 2:34IND +11% win prob(2:34) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford sacked at IND 34 for -9 yards (53-D.Leonard). FUMBLES (53-D.Leonard) [53-D.Leonard], RECOVERED by IND-50-J.Houston at IND 40. 50-J.Houston to IND 40 for no gain (73-J.Jackson).
Q1 · 6:29IND +10% win prob(6:29) 8-R.Sanchez punt is BLOCKED by 35-M.Killebrew, Center-46-L.Rhodes, RECOVERED by DET-58-J.Collins at IND 36. 58-J.Collins to IND 32 for 4 yards (37-K.Willis).
Q2 · 11:20DET +9% win prob(11:20) 17-P.Rivers pass short right to 21-N.Hines for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 15:00DET +7% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass incomplete deep right to 16-A.Dulin (27-J.Coleman). PENALTY on DET-27-J.Coleman, Defensive Pass Interference, 41 yards, enforced at DET 45 - No Play.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Colts	Lions
Offensive plays	74	59
Total yards	370 (edge)	326
Yards per play	5.0	5.5 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.19 (edge)	-0.22
Success rate	46% (edge)	37%
Dropback rate	49%	80%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.48 (edge)	-0.13
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.08 (edge)	-0.56
Third downs	7/14	7/14
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	8 (edge)	6
First downs gained on snaps	25 (edge)	19
Sacks taken	2 (edge)	5
Turnovers	0 (edge)	2

Colts won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.19 expected points added per play vs -0.22.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · DET

Matthew StaffordQB

24/42, 336 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT

-7.0 expected points added · -9.8% completion over expected

Passing · IND

Philip RiversQB

23/33, 262 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

17.7 expected points added · -1.0% completion over expected

Rushing · IND

Jordan WilkinsRB

20 att, 89 yds, 1 TD

-0.8 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · IND

Jonathan TaylorRB

11 att, 22 yds, 0 TD

-1.5 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · DET

Marvin HallWR

4/7 for 113 yds, 0 TD

18% of team targets · 9.3 expected points added

Receiving · DET

T.J. HockensonTE

7/10 for 65 yds, 0 TD

25% of team targets · 0.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	IND	IND 24	7	17	3:22	Punt
2	DET	DET 18	4	1	0:52	Punt
3	IND	IND 26	10	20	4:27	Punt
4	DET	IND 32	3	32	0:37	Touchdown
5	IND	IND 21	10	25	5:25	Punt
6	DET	DET 8	4	6	1:54	Punt
7	IND	IND 39	5	61	2:13	Touchdown
8	DET	DET 25	6	7	1:49	Punt
9	IND	IND 27	11	58	3:49	Touchdown
10	DET	DET 25	5	-11	1:46	Punt
11	IND	DET 48	7	48	2:50	Touchdown
12	DET	DET 25	9	45	0:56	Turnover on downs
13	DET	DET 32	10	68	3:52	Touchdown
14	IND	IND 29	5	9	2:15	Punt
15	DET	DET 21	7	26	2:53	Punt
16	IND	IND 20	4	0	0:30	Punt
17	DET	DET 36	6	24	3:03	Fumble
18	IND	IND 40	9	21	3:53	Touchdown
19	DET	DET 25	2	0	0:08	Defensive touchdown
20	DET	DET 25	6	71	1:11	Touchdown
21	IND	IND 27	14	78	5:14	Touchdown
22	DET	DET 25	14	57	3:13	Turnover on downs
23	IND	IND 18	7	33	3:48	End of game

0 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Colts gained 78 scrimmage yards over 14 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Indianapolis Colts

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Philip Rivers	23/33	262	3	0	2	17.7
Zach Pascal	0/1	0	0	0	0	-0.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Jordan Wilkins	20	89	4.5	1	-0.8
Jonathan Taylor	11	22	2.0	0	-1.5
Nyheim Miller-Hines	5	8	1.6	0	-1.8
Trey Burton	1	2	2.0	1	1.1
Philip Rivers	2	-2	-1.0	0	-1.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Nyheim Miller-Hines	3	5	54	2	15%	5.3
Zach Pascal	3	6	44	0	18%	1.2
Marcus Johnson	2	4	39	0	12%	3.7
Mo Alie-Cox	3	4	37	0	12%	3.4
Jordan Wilkins	1	1	24	0	3%	2.3
Jack Doyle	2	3	18	1	9%	1.9
Ashton Dulin	1	1	13	0	3%	1.2
Jonathan Taylor	2	2	9	0	6%	1.5
Trey Burton	3	4	9	0	12%	-1.9
T.Y. Hilton	2	2	9	0	6%	0.1
Michael Pittman	1	1	6	0	3%	-0.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Shaquille Leonard	6	2	1.0	0	0
Khari Willis	5	2	0.0	0	0
Bobby Okereke	6	1	0.0	0	0
Julian Blackmon	3	1	0.0	0	0
Kenny Moore	3	0	0.0	1	2
Grover Stewart	1	1	0.0	0	0
Al-Quadin Muhammad	1	1	0.0	0	0
Tyquan Lewis	2	0	2.0	0	1
Rock Ya-Sin	1	1	0.0	0	0
Denico Autry	2	0	2.0	0	0

Detroit Lions

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Matthew Stafford	24/42	336	3	1	5	-7.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Jamal Agnew	1	11	11.0	0.5
Matthew Stafford	1	10	10.0	1.1
Adrian Peterson	5	7	1.4	-2.8
D'Andre Swift	6	1	0.2	-4.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Marvin Hall	4	7	113	0	18%	9.3
T.J. Hockenson	7	10	65	0	25%	0.5
Danny Amendola	3	4	54	0	10%	5.7
Marvin Jones	3	7	39	2	18%	-8.9
Jesse James	1	1	23	0	3%	1.2
D'Andre Swift	3	4	22	0	10%	-0.3
Kerryon Johnson	2	2	15	1	5%	0.6
Adrian Peterson	1	1	5	0	3%	-0.1
Kenny Golladay	0	4	0	0	10%	-3.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks
Tracy Walker III	6	5	0.0
Jamie Collins	7	4	0.0
Christian Jones	2	3	0.0
Justin Coleman	3	2	0.0
Danny Shelton	4	1	1.0
Romeo Okwara	3	1	1.0
Da'Shawn Hand	2	2	0.0
Jeff Okudah	4	0	0.0
Amani Oruwariye	3	0	0.0
Duron Harmon	1	2	0.0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: IND -3.5
Closing total: 49
IND moneyline: -185
DET moneyline: +165

Colts closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 20.

Total closed 49; the game landed 62 — over by 13.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Ford Field
Roof / surface: dome · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Clay Martin
Rest: IND 14 days · DET 7 days
Coaches: Frank Reich vs Matt Patricia