For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
Loading
Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:20 AM ET · 16 to play
2020 Week 8 · Sun, Nov 1, 2020 · Empower Field at Mile High
Final
ChargersLos Angeles30
BY 1final margin
BroncosDenver31
Los Angeles Chargers 30 at Denver Broncos 31. Final.
Chargers -3 upset
The verdict · 2020 Week 8
Denver Broncos 31, Chargers 30 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 0:01, 1st and 1, on K.J. Hamler — 37.6 win-probability points to the Broncos on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:01 · 1st and 1
K.J. Hamler
Broncos
(:01) (Shotgun) 3-D.Lock pass short right to 13-K.Hamler for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
O 44.5 ✓
Chargers closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Denver Broncos 31–30 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:01, Broncos +37.6% win probability on one snap.
37.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Drew LockBroncosQ4 0:07(:07) (Shotgun) 3-D.Lock pass incomplete deep right to 85-A.Okwuegbunam (28-B.Facyson). PENALTY on LAC-28-B.Facyson, Defensive Pass Interference, 17 yards, enforced at LAC 18 - No Play.
16.5pts
Unnamed on the sheetBroncosQ4 0:008-B.McManus extra point is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-S.Martin. Penalty on LAC, Illegal Formation, declined.
33.4pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Chargers owned this one and still lost it — 10 chunk plays, against Broncos at 5 chunk plays.
Chargersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Chargers owned this one and still lost it — 44% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Broncos at 37% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Chargersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Broncos won this one — 1 giveaway, against Chargers at 2 giveaways.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Broncos won this one — +0.13 expected points per carry, against Chargers at -0.04 expected points per carry.
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 7.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 17 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Broncos.
MarketModelmodel higher on Broncoshigher on Chargers187 of 199 plays carry both curves
(:01) (Shotgun) 3-D.Lock pass short right to 13-K.Hamler for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
Swing +37.6 for BroncosExpected points +3.27 for BroncosThe model had Broncos 11 points higher than the market did.play 197
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:01DEN +38% win prob(:01) (Shotgun) 3-D.Lock pass short right to 13-K.Hamler for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
4th · 0:00DEN +33% win prob8-B.McManus extra point is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-S.Martin. Penalty on LAC, Illegal Formation, declined.
4th · 0:07DEN +16% win prob(:07) (Shotgun) 3-D.Lock pass incomplete deep right to 85-A.Okwuegbunam (28-B.Facyson). PENALTY on LAC-28-B.Facyson, Defensive Pass Interference, 17 yards, enforced at LAC 18 - No Play.
2nd · 1:53DEN +12% win prob(1:53) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 13-K.Allen for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 7:37DEN +10% win prob(7:37) (Shotgun) 3-D.Lock pass deep middle to 17-D.Hamilton for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 3:24DEN +9% win prob(3:24) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 22-J.Jackson pushed ob at DEN 30 for 34 yards (29-B.Callahan).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
K.J. Hamler's 1-yard touchdown catch with 0:01 left in the 4th put Denver Broncos ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st10:07Brandon McManus·35-yd field goal35-yard field goalholder S.Martin · snap J.Bobenmoyer+30–3
Chargers ahead 5–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Broncos, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.04Chargers: +0.04 expected points added per play
+0.08Broncos: +0.08 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.09Chargers: +0.09 expected points added per play
+0.06Broncos: +0.06 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.04Chargers: −0.04 expected points added per play
+0.13Broncos: +0.13 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Chargers ran 84 snaps at a 57% dropback rate against Broncos’s 57 at 75%. Red-zone trips: Chargers 5, Broncos 5.
NoteChargers outgained Broncos 485-353 but lost the turnover battle 2-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
DEN's sack or hit rate turned over: 24.1% in week 7 against 8.3% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
48 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.5 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -37 pts to 23 pts
right on their number · −0.3 vs their 14.3%, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (−0.06× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
Broncos8.3%
leaned — stayed blocked · −6.6 vs their 14.9%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (−1.01× that swing) · 48 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteDEN's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 70.5%, 17.8 points above their season mean of 52.6% and 1.2 times their own 15.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Broncos attack right, the Chargers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Chargers←Broncos→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
B.McManus extra+34% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
8-B.McManus extra point is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-S.Martin. Penalty on LAC, Illegal Formation, declined.
Q4 0:00 · Broncos · PAT at LAC 15 · gained nothing · +0.07 EP · +33.6% win probability
185 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 199 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 199 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
11 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was DEN moving 81 yards from the DEN 19 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DEN attacks right, LAC attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
199 of 199 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
199
EPA per play
+0.04
Success rate
40%
Yards
836
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Chargers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR72+0.1256%
Broncos1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR45+0.1776%
Chargers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9-0.7844%
Broncos1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8-0.0963%
Broncos2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Chargers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Chargers2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Broncos2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
199 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
199 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Broncos 30
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.8 seconds
Intercepted3 plays
Chargers0Broncos3
Field goal5 plays
Punt9 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Chargers 40
Punt5 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.9 seconds
The period ended11 plays, from the Chargers 9 to the Broncos 26
2nd quarter53 plays
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, four linebackers and three backsIn the boxNine defenders
Turnover on downs1 play
Punt7 plays, from the Broncos 26 to the Broncos 44
Punt7 plays, from the Chargers 40 to the Broncos 43
Punt8 plays, from the Broncos 20 to the Broncos 39
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.2 seconds
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.1 seconds
Chargers6Broncos3
Chargers7Broncos3
Touchdown11 plays, from the Chargers 20 to the Broncos 8
Punt5 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Broncos 31
Chargers13Broncos3
Chargers14Broncos3
Touchdown11 plays, from the Chargers 20 to the Broncos 2
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter49 plays
Chargers20Broncos3
Chargers21Broncos3
Touchdown12 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Broncos 24
Punt5 plays
Chargers24Broncos3
Field goal8 plays, from the Chargers 26 to the Broncos 34
Chargers24Broncos9
Chargers24Broncos10
Touchdown7 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Broncos 45
Punt7 plays, from the Chargers 27 to the Broncos 49
Intercepted2 plays, from the Broncos 13 to the Broncos 15
Intercepted3 plays, from the Broncos 24 to the Broncos 19
The period ended5 plays, from the Broncos 20 to the Broncos 35
4th quarter58 plays
Chargers24Broncos16
Chargers24Broncos17
Touchdown8 plays, from the Broncos 29 to the Chargers 9
Chargers27Broncos17
Field goal10 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Broncos 29
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
Chargers27Broncos23
Chargers27Broncos24
Touchdown4 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Chargers 40
Chargers30Broncos24
Field goal15 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Broncos 15
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerSevenPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.7 seconds
Chargers30Broncos30
Chargers30Broncos31
Touchdown20 plays, from the Broncos 19 to the Chargers 1
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Chargers -3
Closing total
44.5
Chargers moneyline
-146
Broncos moneyline
+132
Chargers closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 44.5; the game landed 61 — over by 16.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Empower Field at Mile High
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Mild, 63°F at kickoff; breezy at 11 mph out of the north; clear.
Referee
Carl Cheffers
Rest
Chargers 7 days · Broncos 7 days
Coaches
Anthony Lynn vs Vic Fangio
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
1st · 11:43LAC +9% win prob(11:43) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep middle intended for 15-J.Guyton INTERCEPTED by 31-J.Simmons at DEN 38. 31-J.Simmons pushed ob at LAC 16 for 46 yards (10-J.Herbert).
2nd · 15:00LAC +8% win prob(15:00) 27-J.Kelley right guard to DEN 26 for -1 yards (93-D.Jones, 96-S.Harris).
Chargerscategory by categoryBroncos
Chargers0
Broncos3
