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2020 Week 8 · Sun, Nov 1, 2020 · Empower Field at Mile High

Los Angeles Chargers

30

Denver BroncosWinner

31

LAC -3 upsetO 44.5 ✓

Denver Broncos 31–30 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:01, DEN +38% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3DEN ↑LAC ↓
Q4 · 0:01LAC — DEN DEN ball · 1st & 1LAC 71%

(:01) (Shotgun) 3-D.Lock pass short right to 13-K.Hamler for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 0:01DEN +38% win prob(:01) (Shotgun) 3-D.Lock pass short right to 13-K.Hamler for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
  2. Q4 · 0:00DEN +33% win prob8-B.McManus extra point is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-S.Martin. Penalty on LAC, Illegal Formation, declined.
  3. Q4 · 0:07DEN +16% win prob(:07) (Shotgun) 3-D.Lock pass incomplete deep right to 85-A.Okwuegbunam (28-B.Facyson). PENALTY on LAC-28-B.Facyson, Defensive Pass Interference, 17 yards, enforced at LAC 18 - No Play.
  4. Q2 · 1:53DEN +12% win prob(1:53) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 13-K.Allen for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricChargersBroncos
Offensive plays8457
Total yards485 (edge)353
Yards per play5.86.2 (edge)
Expected points added / play0.040.08 (edge)
Success rate44% (edge)37%
Dropback rate57%75%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.09 (edge)0.06
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.040.13 (edge)
Third downs7/16 (edge)5/13
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)10 (edge)5
First downs gained on snaps25 (edge)14
Sacks taken22
Turnovers21 (edge)

Chargers outgained Broncos 485–353 but lost the turnover battle 2–1. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · LAC

Justin HerbertQB

29/43, 278 yds, 3 TD, 2 INT

5.0 expected points added · +5.8% completion over expected

Passing · DEN

Drew LockQB

26/41, 248 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT

3.2 expected points added · +2.2% completion over expected

Rushing · LAC

Justin JacksonRB

17 att, 89 yds, 0 TD

1.1 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · DEN

Phillip LindsayRB

6 att, 83 yds, 1 TD

4.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · LAC

Mike WilliamsWR

5/8 for 99 yds, 1 TD

19% of team targets · 4.7 expected points added

Receiving · DEN

DaeSean HamiltonWR

4/5 for 82 yds, 1 TD

13% of team targets · 7.4 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1DENDEN 25551:58Punt
2LACLAC 303-21:33Interception
3DENLAC 16451:27Turnover on downs
4LACLAC 258153:08Punt
5DENDEN 40492:17Punt
6LACLAC 911654:41Turnover on downs
7DENDEN 267183:38Punt
8LACLAC 407172:40Punt
9DENDEN 206192:45Punt
10LACLAC 2010804:05Touchdown
11DENDEN 25560:37Punt
12LACLAC 207750:56Touchdown
13DENDEN 25200:15End of half
14LACLAC 2512754:47Touchdown
15DENDEN 305-50:54Punt
16LACLAC 268401:46Turnover on downs
17DENDEN 257751:28Touchdown
18LACLAC 27792:11Punt
19DENDEN 13220:57Interception
20LACDEN 24351:21Interception
21DENDEN 20101004:54Touchdown
22LACLAC 259313:45Turnover on downs
23DENDEN 254600:27Touchdown
24LACLAC 2513755:00Turnover on downs
25DENDEN 1916592:30Touchdown

0 of 25 drives ended in points. Longest march: Broncos gained 100 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Los Angeles Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Justin Herbert29/432783225.0
Keenan Allen0/10000-0.5

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Justin Jackson17895.201.1
Troymaine Pope10676.702.6
Joshua Kelley7324.60-5.0
Justin Herbert3217.000.6
Mike Williams111.00-0.7

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Mike Williams5899119%4.7
Keenan Allen91267129%7.8
Justin Jackson3553012%3.2
Hunter Henry4433010%1.7
Troymaine Pope5728017%-2.1
Jalen Guyton143010%-8.3
Gabe Nabers11212%1.6
Joshua Kelley11-702%-1.3

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Rayshawn Jenkins610.012
Nasir Adderley520.000
Kyzir White320.001
Kenneth Murray310.000
Michael Davis300.001
Brandon Facyson300.000
Tevaughn Campbell120.000
Jahleel Addae210.000
Jerry Tillery111.000
Nick Vigil110.000

Denver Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Drew Lock26/412483123.2

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Phillip Lindsay68313.814.4
Melvin Gordon8263.30-2.5
Drew Lock2-1-0.50-0.6

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
DaeSean Hamilton4582113%7.4
Jerry Jeudy41073026%-1.4
Noah Fant7947024%-0.8
Melvin Gordon6721018%-2.0
K.J. Hamler331318%2.9
Albert Okwuegbunam11913%2.0
Phillip Lindsay13308%-1.7

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Kareem Jackson840.000
Josey Jewell640.000
Alexander Johnson550.001
A.J. Bouye510.001
Justin Simmons410.011
Shelby Harris230.000
Bradley Chubb401.000
Michael Ojemudia310.000
Malik Reed211.000
DeShawn Williams300.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
LAC -3
Closing total
44.5
LAC moneyline
-146
DEN moneyline
+132

Chargers closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 44.5; the game landed 61 — over by 16.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Empower Field at Mile High
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
64°F, wind 10 mph
Referee
Carl Cheffers
Rest
LAC 7 days · DEN 7 days
Coaches
Anthony Lynn vs Vic Fangio

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.